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Electricity Tariff Review in Peninsular Malaysia for
Regulatory Period 2 (RP2: 2018-2020)
under Incentive-Based Regulation (IBR) Mechanism
30th March 2018
Electricity Tariff Review under the IBR Mechanism for the 2nd Regulatory
Period (RP2: 2018-2020)
Overview on the Incentive-based Regulation Mechanism |
Summary of key Government decisions on
13 Dec 2017:
i. IBR implementation for regulatory
period 2 (RP2) in the Peninsular
effective on 1st January 2018 to 31st
December 2020.
ii. Maintain current tariff structure and
schedule.
iii. Consumers continue to receive
reliable electricity supply along with
more advanced infrastructure
development initiatives and support
programmes by TNB
IBR is a mechanism for electricity tariff setting with incentives
to improve efficiency of TNB and give greater transparency for customers
Before IBR After IBR
From non-transparency cost mechanism To IBR that achieves transparency
4
Electricity tariff is made up of two components under IBR Framework - Base Tariff and Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT)
Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) :
6-monthly tariff adjustment to reflect
variations in fuel costs, costs
associated with PPAs & SLAs and RE
displaced costs
Base Tariff reflects:
a) CAPEX and OPEX of Transmission,
Distribution, System Operation (SO)
and Single Buyer (SB) Operation
b) Return on regulated asset base of
Transmission, Distribution, SO and
SB
c) Power purchase cost charged by
Generators (including base price for
fuel) to the Single Buyer (SB)
Note 1 : CAPEX = Capital expenditure
2 : OPEX = Operational expenditure
Revenue Requirement Building Block Model Under the IBR Framework
Efficiency
• testing for efficiencies through benchmarking and trend analysis
- review of historical cost performance
- efficiency and prudency of asset management policies
- consistency with capex and sales forecast
IBR Mechanism has been
Successfully Implemented in the 1st Regulatory Period (2015-2017)
Trial-run period
2014
Regulatory Period 1
(RP1: 2015 – 2017)
Key Features:
Projected CAPEX and OPEX for setting of average base tariff at 38.53
sen/kWh
Structured tariff regulatory process for overall efficiency enhancement
Regulated return to TNB : WACC at 7.5%
Imbalance Cost Pass-Through Mechanism (ICPT) for uncontrollable
costs
Performance targets with incentive/penalty mechanism by regulator
Enhancement Prior to Regulatory Period 2 (RP2: 2018-2020):
1. Benchmarking of transmission and distribution costs
2. Regulatory Account Audit from 2014-2017
3. Review of TNB’s tariff proposal submission
4. Setting of new KPIs targets
5. Enhanced Regulatory Implementation Guidelines
RP1: Total RM 6.3 bil of rebates and subsidies were passed-through to end-customers
ICPT review every 6 months:
The rebates from March 2015 until June 2017 (P3-P7) were made possible largely due to the savings derives from
lower actual fuel price (i.e. Coal and LNG) as compared to benchmark prices
Main factors allowing for rebates and subsidies of RM 6.3 bil
1. Generation mix : Higher actual generation from coal in RP1, compared to gas
Made possible by improved coal plants performance
2. Cheaper coal price :
3. Reduction in gas volume :
Reduction in actual gas volume in
RP1 means less utilization of
higher priced LNG
Regulatory Period 1 (RP1: 2014-2017) Fuel Prices Trend under IBR Framework |
Power Sector Coal Prices (USD/MT)
Note:
1- Forex or Exchange rate is: 1 USD to RM
2- Benchmark coal price is 12.43 RM/mmBTU (11.78 RM/GJ)
Source: Fuel Management, Single Buyer, TNB
Power Sector Coal Prices (RM/MT)
Note:
1- Forex or Exchange rate is: 1 USD to RM
2- Benchmark coal price is 12.43 RM/mmBTU (11.78 RM/GJ)
Source: Fuel Management, Single Buyer, TNB
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Price to Power Sector (RM/mmBTU)
RM/mmBTU
Actual price billed by PETRONAS
Benchmark price in tariff
Revised price by PETRONAS1
Source: PETRONAS
Regulated Piped Gas Price to Power Sector (RM/mmBTU)
Note:
1 - Prior to May ‘97, the Gas Price Formula for Power Sector = 1.04 x MFO Price
2 - From Jan 2014, the regulated gas price is only applicable for gas consumption ≤ 1,000 mmscfd. Consumption beyond this will be priced at LNG
RP1 (2015-2017) Performance under IBR Framework
RP1 ELECTRICITY TARIFF COST OF COMPONENTS UNDER IBR FRAMEWORK
Regulatory Period 1 (2015-2017)
38.53 sen/kWh
TNB RP1 (2015-2017) Performance under IBR Framework |
RP1 ELECTRICITY TARIFF COST OF COMPONENTS UNDER IBR FRAMEWORK
Actual unit sales are below approved forecast levels Average profit for RP1 for regulated business entities ~RM4.1 bil Actual CAPEX spent RM15.7 bil vs. approved at RM18.5 bil Actual OPEX spent RM16.9 bil vs. approved at RM16.4 bil System reliability with System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) at 50.24 minutes /customer in FY2017 | |
Changes in Customer Mix (%) in RP1 (2015-2017)
- Customer growth from 7.9 mil (2012) to 8.5 mil (2017)
- Changes in consumer mix with revenue from commercial/ services sector
- Actual average selling price in RP1 was 39.45 sen/kWh vs. approved average base tariff at 38.53 sen/kWh
RP1 (2015-2017) Performance Indicators |
Summary of TNB RP1 (2015-2017) Performance Indicators
Business Entities | Code | Key Performance Indicator | Measurement | Performance FY2015 | Performance FY2016 | Performance FY2017 |
Dead Band (Neutral) |
Customer Services | CSPI 1 | SAIDI | 55 mis - 70 mins | 49.66 mins (I) | 45.95 mins (I) | 50.24 mins (I) |
CSPI 2 | Average of MSL Compliance Performance | 84.11% - 94.11% | 93.95% (N) | 95.74% (I) | 83.30% (P) |
CSPI 3 | Weighted Average GSL (3,4,and 5) | 86.32% - 95.5% | 99.71% (I) | 99.38% (I) | 92.30% (N) |
| | |
Transmission | TXPI1 | System Minutes | 1.5 mins - 5.1 mins | 0.77 mins (I) | 1.30 mins (I) | 0.23 mins (I) |
TXPI2 | System Availability | 99.04% - 99.48% | 99.73% (I) | 99.76% (I) | 99.79% (I) |
TXPI3 | Project Delivery Index | 0 month - 5.47 month | -1.38 months (N) | -2.35 months (N) | 1.68 months (N) |
| | |
Single Buyer (Operations) | SBPI1 | System Average Cost | 0% - 5% | -2.50% (I) | -1.60% (I) | -0.20% (I) |
SBPI2 | Compliance to Timely Settlement of Generators' Invoices | 99.55% - 99.85% | 100% (I) | 100% (I) | 100% (I) |
SBPI3 | Non- Compliance to Malaysian Grid Code (MGC) | 2 - 7 occurrence | 0 occurrence (I) | 0 occurrence (I) | 0 occurrence (I) |
SBPI4 | Non- Compliance to Single Buyer Rules (SBR) | 2 - 7 occurrence | 4.5 occurrence (N) | 5 occurrence (N) | 5 occurrence (N) |
| | |
System Operator | SOPI1 | Wide Area Loss of Supply Event | Less than 0 occurrence | 0 occurrence | 0 occurrence | 0 occurrence |
| | (I) | (I) | (I) |
SOPI2.1 | Security Limit Compliance: Voltage Limit Compliance (VLC) | 90% - 96 | % Sum 1. | 100% (I) | 100% (I) | 100% (I) |
SOPI3 | Security Limit Compliance: Frequency Limit Compliance (FLC) | 90% - 96 | % 2. 3. | 100% (I) | 100% (I) | (I) |
SOPI2.3 | Dispatch Adjustment | 0.2% - 0.4 | % | 0.0156% (I) | 0.0097% (I) | 0.0196% (I) |
| | |
Summary for FY 2017:
1. 10 over 14 KPIs are in incentive band
2. 3 KPIs in neutral band
3. One KPI in the penalty scheme (Average of MSL
Compliance Performance)
Indicator: I = Incentive P = Penalty N = Neutral
(For RP1, the incentive and penalty scheme was implemented for monitoring purpose only without any monetary impact)
Determination of Electricity Tariff for IBR Regulatory Period 2 (RP2: 2018-2020) |
New Features in Electricity Tariff Review for RP2 (2018-2020)
More efficient and reliable electricity supply | | Support Government’s initiatives and aspirations | | New addition in Key Performance Indicators | | Separation of Distribution Networks and Customer Services |
•Efficient and reliable •Supporting •New performance •Separation of these electricity supply at Government’s indicators on each business entities will the lowest efficient initiatives in green business entity that enhance the system cost; energy and are in line with reliability and
sustainability for Government’s consumer experience;
•Enhancement in example AMI, policies; safety and reliability Distribution •This will increase the with smart grid Automation, Group •Enhancement on KPI productivity and
capabilities. Relamping of mechanisms and consumer
streetlight, etc. principles (symmetric satisfaction.
and asymmetric).
•Continue the gas
price subsidy
rationalization by
gradual removal of
gas price subsidy;
RP2 (2018-2020) of Regulated Business Entities under the IBR Framework
Governed under PPA/SLA/REPPA
Regulated Under IBR
For RP2, five regulated business entities will be operating under IBR framework with the
separation of Distribution Network and Customer Services
Determination of Regulatory Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
for RP2 (2018-2020)
| | TNB Proposal | | Final |
Low | Medium | High | Decision |
| | | | |
After-tax cost of debt | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| | | | |
Cost of equity | 11.4% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 10.9% |
| | | | |
Gearing | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| | | | |
WACC (after-tax) | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.30% |
RP1: WACC is 7.5%
New Base Tariff under IBR mechanism RP2 (2018-2020)
is 39.45 sen/kWh
Base tariff for RP2 (sen/kWh)
RP1 (sen/kWh) | 26.76 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 3.66 | 6.77 | 1.10 | 11.77 | 38.53 |
% change | 1.1% | | | | | | 5.3% | 2.4% |
RP2 (2018-2020) Allowed Revenue Requirement
is RM135 billion
1-RP1 represents the allowed revenue for 2015 – 2017
2-The numbers for RP2 allowed revenues are levelised based on allowed return of 7.3%
69% of the total allowed revenue for RP2 is to account for Single Buyer Generation Cost
The levelised Single Buyer generation cost for RP2 is 27.05 sen/kWh.
an increase of 1.08% (RP1: 26.76 sen/kWh)
Total Single Buyer Generation Costs for RP2 | RM92.4 bil (RP1: RM88.9 bil) | |
Fuel Payment (Gas), RM25.06 bil, 27% Fuel Payment (Coal), RM31.38 bil, 34% | Capacity Payment, RM28.68 bil, 31% Others, RM7.25 bil, 8% | |
RP2 Base Fuel Prices Coal: USD75/MT (RM14.47/mmbtu @ 4.212/USD) LNG: RM35/mmbtu Regulated Gas: RM24.20/mmbtu (Jan’18 – Jun’18) RM25.70/mmbtu (Jul’18 – Dec’18) RM27.20/mmbtu (Jan’19 – Dec’20) | |
Others include: VOR Payment, Hydro Energy Payment, Renewable Energy Displaced Cost under the FiT regime and Laos-Thailand-Malaysia
Interconnection
In summary, 3 major shifts in RP2 (2018-2020) contributes
in a lower increase in the Single Buyer Generation Costs
1. Lower load growth (1.8 – 2.0%) and lower sales volume
- less generation required to meet demand
2 Coal will be the dominant fuel in the energy mix for RP2
3. Significant reduction in gas volume means less utilization of LNG
RP2 (2018-2020) Total Allowed CAPEX is RM 18.8 bil
(RP2 Proposed: RM 25.1 bil)
- 85% deliverability adjustment is applied on all regulated business entities' overall CAPEX. The deliverability adjustment reflects historical under-delivery by TNB against approved RP1 CAPEX.
- Major Infrastructure development initiatives in RP2:
i. Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) with the installation of 1.5 million smart meters starting with major urban areas of the
Peninsular;
ii. Fiber optic networks to ensure the reliability and safety of electrical supplies are assured; and
iii. Installation of 367,000 LED street lights in major cities throughout the country to promote energy efficient practices.
RP2(2018-2020) Total Allowed OPEX is RM 18.2 bil
(RP2 Proposed: RM 18.7 bil)
| | OPEX target productivity level for RP2 is 3.4% | | OPEX included in the RP2 base tariff is allocated for staff costs, repair and maintenance, other general expenses, working capital and interest on customer deposits. |
|
Review of Two Major RP2 (2018-2020) CAPEX
RP2 Average Regulated Asset Base (RAB) (2018-2020)
RP2 (2018-2020) TNB’s Regulated Business Entities
Revenue Requirement
RP2 (2018-2020) TNB’s Regulated Business Entities Revenue
Requirement (RR)
RP2 (2018-2020) TNB’s Regulated Business Entities
Revenue Requirement
RP2 (2018-2020) Proposed Performance Indicators |
RP2 (2018-2020) KPI Mechanism and Principles
Summary of RP2 (2018-2020) Performance Indicators
Code | KPI | Weight | Type |
CS | Customer Services | | |
CSPI1 | Customer Satisfaction Index | 33% | Symmetric |
CSPI2 | Average Renewable Energy Connection Time | 33% | Symmetric |
CSPI3 | Customer Satisfaction Index on EE Programme | 33% | Reward-only |
CSPI4 | Delivery of EE Programme | n/a | Monitor-only |
DN | Distribution Network | | |
DNPI1 | SAIDI Urban | | |
a. Kuala Lumpur | 10% | Penalty-only |
b. Shah Alam | 10% | Penalty-only |
c. Johor Bharu | 10% | Penalty-only |
d. Pulau Pinang | 10% | Penalty-only |
e. Petaling Jaya | 10% | Penalty-only |
DNPI2 | MSL 3B Compliance | 50% | Symmetric |
DNPI3 | Lost Time Injury Frequency | n/a | Monitor-only |
DNPI4 | Special Projects Delivery Index | n/a | Monitor-only |
TX | Transmission | | |
TXPI1 | System Minutes Lost | 33% | Penalty-only |
TXPI2 | System Availability | 33% | Penalty-only |
TXPI3 | Project Delivery Index | 33% | Symmetric |
TXPI4 | Lost Time Injury Frequency | n/a | Monitor-only |
GSO | Grid System Operator | | |
SOPI1 | Wide Area Loss of Supply Event | 20% | Symmetric |
SOPI2 | Voltage Limit Compliance | 20% | Symmetric |
SOPI3 | Frequency Limit Compliance | 20% | Symmetric |
SOPI4 | Least Cost Operation | 20% | Symmetric |
SOPI5 | System Minutes Lost | 20% | Penalty-only |
SB | Single Buyer (Operations) | | |
SBPI1 | System Average Cost Deviation | n/a | Monitor-only |
SBPI2 | Load Forecast Accuracy | 33% | Symmetric |
SBPI3 | NEDA Cost Savings | 33% | Reward-only |
SBPI4 | NEDA Participation | 33% | Reward-only |
| | |
Expectations for IBR Mechanism of RP2 (2018-2020) onwards
Approved Average Base Tariff In Adherence to Regulatory Governance And
Enhanced IBR Mechanism
TERIMA KASIH Suruhanjaya Tenaga |