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Energy White Paper 2015

WWW.EWP.INDUSTRY.GOV.AU 

ISBN: 978-1-925092-51-6 (PRINT) 978-1-925092-52-3 (ONLINE) 

© Commonwealth of Australia 2015 

This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the Commonwealth. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the Department of Industry and Science GPO Box 9839, Canberra ACT 2601. 

Disclaimer 

While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure the contents of this publication are factually correct, the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication. 

This report should be attributed as ‘2015 Energy White Paper’. 

Energy White Paper 

April 2015 

Minister’s foreword 

Australia is a growing energy superpower. 

Our energy sector underpins our economy, secures our standard of living and drives our international competitiveness. It also underwrites our stature in the global economy. 

Australia’s competitive edge in the field is two-fold: firstly it comes from the abundance and diversity of our energy sources, but it is also based on our recognition of the need to maximise the returns on our natural advantages. 

In the decades ahead, our actions to build on our energy strengths and fully grasp the opportunities of our energy-rich continent will be increasingly critical to a strong and productive economy. We must do this by boosting our energy productivity and capitalising on new technologies. 

Australia’s focus must be on productivity both in developing our resources and in the way we use energy. A National Energy Productivity Plan will provide opportunities to deliver substantial energy savings and support our goals in a global and transitioning energy market. 

Reliable and competitively priced energy supports our business competitiveness, lowers the cost of living and grows exports. 

Within the next five years, our yearly export earnings from energy resources are projected to reach $114 billion, delivering more jobs, higher incomes and a higher standard of living for all Australians. 

Australia is endowed with vast energy resources. We have had decades of readily available and low-cost energy to meet domestic and export demand. However, the energy landscape is changing. Strong growth in global demand, rapid developments in technological innovation and greater integration into world markets continue to influence how we generate, use and export energy. Production costs are also rising, against a backdrop of increasing supply competition and commodity price volatility. 

This complex environment presents Australia with unprecedented opportunities and challenges. With the right policy settings, we can negotiate a path towards maintaining our energy sector’s competitive advantage, lowering business and household costs, and getting the most out of the sector’s vital contribution to Australia’s economic growth and long–term energy security. 

The Government has abolished the carbon and mining taxes, relieving businesses and households of the associated costs. We have also commenced priority energy market reforms for more competition and consumer choice, and improved business conditions. 

Energy White Paper · Minister’s foreword 

This Energy White Paper brings together these and new actions to provide a consistent and integrated national energy policy. 

Our guiding principle is that markets should be left to operate freely, without unnecessary government intervention. Competition, productivity and investment will deliver reliable and cost competitive energy to households and business. 

Through the Council of Australian Governments Energy Council, the Australian Government will continue to lead work with the states and territories on a consistent national energy market that promotes consumer choice and encourages investment in energy resources development. 

As well as prioritising reforms now, this White Paper will guide future decisions in what is now a very dynamic sector. 

Strengthening the policy settings for Australia’s energy sector is necessary in a changing energy marketplace and I am confident the framework provided in this White Paper will help Australia reaffirm its position as an energy superpower. 

HON IAN MACFARLANE MP MINISTER FOR INDUSTRY AND SCIENCE 

Energy White Paper · Contents 

Contents 

Introduction ............................................................................... 1

Vision for the energy sector ................................................................................................ 2

The Government’s priorities ................................................................................................6 

Increasing competition to keep prices down .....................7 

Electricity ....................................................................................................................................9 

Price trends..........................................................................................................................9

Cross-subsidies and cost-reflective tariffs..............................................................11

Price signals and advanced metering......................................................................12

Product choice ................................................................................................................. 14 

Gas ................................................................................................................................................17 

Price trends.........................................................................................................................17

Gas supply ..........................................................................................................................17

Gas market reform...........................................................................................................18

Reliability of gas supply ................................................................................................19 

Transport fuels  .......................................................................................................................22 

Price trends........................................................................................................................22

Consumption ...................................................................................................................25

Alternative fuels...............................................................................................................25

Supply reliability ............................................................................................................ 26 

Market governance.................................................................................................................27 

Box 1: Australian Government activities to increase energy market competition .............................................................................................................................. 29 

Increasing energy productivity to promote growth .......31

Coordinated action.................................................................................................................35

Buildings ................................................................................................................................... 36

Appliances and equipment ................................................................................................38 Vehicles...................................................................................................................................... 39 Data...............................................................................................................................................41

Box 2: Australian Government activities to increase energy productivity ...... 42 

Energy White Paper · Contents 

Investing in Australia’s energy future.............................. 43 

Energy resources investment............................................................................................ 44 

Maintaining a strong pipeline of energy resources investment .................. 44

Investing in skills and workforce productivity .................................................... 46

Investing in Indigenous opportunities ...................................................................47

Investing in deregulation and streamlining ........................................................ 48

Investing in information............................................................................................... 49

Investing in community engagement....................................................................50 

Investing in new energy sources and technologies ...................................................51 

Industry and government collaboration .......................................................................53 

Investment in promoting Australia’s capabilities ............................................. 54 

Australia’s future electricity mix .......................................................................................55 

Low emissions fossil fuel ............................................................................................ 56

Renewable energy..........................................................................................................57

Nuclear energy................................................................................................................ 58

Australia’s future transport energy mix ............................................................... 59 

Box 3: Australian Government activities to increase investment........................60 

Stimulating change ............................................................... 63 

Attachment 1:  Australian Government COAG Energy Council priorities for 2015..................................... 67 

Bibliography.............................................................................71 

Energy White Paper 

Energy White Paper Introduction 

Introduction 

The Government through its Economic Action Strategy is refocusing government, revitalising Australia s businesses and entrepreneurial drive, and equipping our economy for the challenges ahead, to prevent Australia s economy from drifting. 

Industry Innovation and Competitiveness Agenda, 14 October 2014 

Introduction 

The Australian Government committed to prepare a new Energy White Paper on coming to government to provide an integrated Australian energy policy framework. Australia’s energy policy will be consistent with the Government’s vision for economic reform and future competitiveness of Australian businesses in international markets through: 

• a lower cost, business friendly environment with less regulation, lower taxes and more competition 
• a more skilled labour force 
• better economic infrastructure 
• policy that fosters innovation and entrepreneurship.   

Vision for the energy sector 

• competition that will improve consumer choice and put downward pressure on prices   
• the more productive use of energy to lower costs, improve energy use and stimulate economic growth 
• investment to encourage innovation and energy resources development to grow jobs and exports. 

Australia has a wealth of energy resources, which is the basis of Australia’s growing stature as a global energy superpower. Australian energy products and services must be delivered to households, business and international markets reliably and cost effectively so Australia can take full advantage of these natural endowments. 

Energy resources exports have provided major benefits to the Australian community and the economy, particularly since the early 2000s. Within the next five years, Australia’s yearly export earnings from energy resources commodities are projected to reach $114 billion (Department of Industry and Science 2015a). This will deliver more jobs, higher incomes and a higher standard of living for all Australians. 

International markets for energy resources and energy and mining services are highly competitive. Foreign investment is an important source of capital in energy markets and Australia has been, and will continue to be, a beneficiary. Australia must be a productive, cost competitive and reliable energy supplier if we are to secure private sector investment in energy resources developments to increase exports. Investment is needed in exploration, infrastructure, innovation and skills to maintain a robust energy sector and sustain our energy security. 

The Australian Government has taken action to improve business conditions and will continue to look for reform opportunities to create an enabling environment for business, including better streamlining of regulation. Unnecessary and burdensome regulation, high labour costs and business uncertainty through unpredictable policy or inappropriate taxes create risk and contribute to Australia losing investment to other resource-rich countries. In many cases, reform will require a collaborative effort with state and territory governments. 

The Australian Government is also supporting the development of the energy resources sector through the $188.5 million Industry Growth Centres Initiative, and the $476 million Industry Skills Fund. 

While Australian electricity prices have risen sharply in recent years, they are now moderating in most jurisdictions. The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) expects residential electricity prices to fall in 2014–15 in most jurisdictions following the removal of the carbon tax. Over 2015–16 and 2016–17, prices are expected to show modest declines or be stable across most states and territories because of subdued wholesale energy costs and lower network prices (AEMC 2014). 

Despite cost reductions from the removal of the carbon tax, gas prices are rising as they move toward parity with an international price. This is due to Australia’s increasing links to international gas markets and rising domestic production costs. 

These price movements bring into sharp focus the role of energy markets in delivering economic growth from our natural resources. Given the dynamism of international energy markets and the Australian economy, the best way to ensure energy supply at the lowest possible cost is to build more competitive energy markets. Market structures must remove the regulations and distortions that discourage competition between suppliers, make it easier for buyers and sellers to participate, and give them access to better market information. 

The Australian Government is committed to energy market reform to drive competition and innovation. Unnecessary government intervention that pushes up energy costs and hinders the markets in driving costs down will be avoided. 

A key to better market outcomes is to limit the role of government in markets. For over a decade, the Australian Government has championed reforms that enhance the independent institutional governance of Australian energy markets. While this work is continuing, there is significant unfinished business. The ownership of energy assets by some state and territory governments is in conflict with this market reform agenda, particularly where asset owners have a regulatory role and are less efficient. The evidence is that privately owned energy assets are more productive (AER 2014a). The Australian Government is committed to encouraging the states and territories to free up capital to invest in additional economic infrastructure through privatising state and territory-owned assets under the Asset Recycling Initiative. 

Consumers are increasingly taking greater control of their energy costs, particularly electricity costs. However, more flexible tariffs and giving consumers better access to information on energy use would further support consumers in managing their energy costs. Minimising cross-subsidies between consumers and providing effective price signals will also support the productive use of energy. The Australian Government supports action to reform network tariffs, deregulate retail electricity pricing and deploy more advanced meters that will provide consumers with access to new tariffs and demand-side services. Deregulation enables innovative new business opportunities such as competitive metering and demand management services. 

The energy market reforms outlined in this White Paper to increase consumer choice will contribute to increasing Australia’s energy productivity. Investment in new technologies also helps to improve energy productivity. Improved energy productivity can reduce household and business energy costs and encourage economic growth. 

Australia has committed to a Direct Action Plan on climate policy. Its centrepiece is the Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) to help reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions by 5 per cent on 2000 emissions by 2020. An ongoing commitment to a Renewable Energy Target (RET) that delivers 20 per cent of Australia’s energy needs by 2020 will be part of meeting this target. The ERF will also encourage investment in more efficient generation, new technologies and energy productivity that will contribute to meeting longer-term climate change emissions targets. 

Energy technologies and markets can change quickly. The rapid uptake of rooftop solar systems is a good example. While policy should create stable market conditions, it should also encourage innovation and ensure there are no unnecessary regulatory barriers to the cost competitive entry and exit of energy technologies. New technologies typically have the advantage of emitting lower levels of greenhouse gases than older technologies. Turnover in energy generation plant, and appliances and equipment can help reduce emissions, but should occur on a commercial basis and follow a least cost pathway to consumers. 

The Australian Government’s goal is to foster robust and efficient energy markets that benefit consumers and encourage investment by being responsive to inevitable changes in energy demand and supply, and the energy market environment generally. 

The Australian Government continues to monitor and identify emerging risks to energy supplies, including relevant non-market security issues, through the periodic National Energy Security Assessment (NESA). The next NESA is due in mid–2015. The NESA takes a forward-looking view of emerging risks confronting Australia’s energy supply, including changes in macroeconomic conditions such as global oil price volatility. It also considers physical disruptions to the energy supply chain, such as natural disasters and geopolitical uncertainty in key oil producing regions.  

Better coordination and periodic public reporting on the combined effect of the NESA and the Australian Energy Technology Assessment, Australian Energy Resource Assessment, Australian Liquid Fuels Technology Assessment and infrastructure reviews will give a regular and improved outlook for energy supply. This will help energy markets better respond to emerging issues and keep operating efficiently. 

The principles set out in this White Paper guide a coherent and integrated policy framework and rationale for actions that addresses current challenges. The principles and policy framework are robust, resilient and long-lasting. They will guide future decision-making, providing consistency, stability and predictability in addressing any future challenges. 

The Australian Government’s priorities 

INCREASING COMPETITION TO KEEP PRICES DOWN 

The Australian Government’s priorities in energy market reform are the: 

• implementation of priority energy market reforms agreed by the Council of Australian Governments Energy Council 
• rollout of cost-reflective tariffs to reduce cross-subsidies between consumers and drive better uptake of enabling technologies (particularly advanced metering) that allow consumers to respond to price signals 
• further development of market frameworks to encourage innovative products and services that give consumers more choice in managing bills and support greater competition 
• privatisation of state-owned electricity assets to increase productivity and competition 
• further development of the national wholesale gas market to increase the liquidity and transparency of gas trading, and increase pipeline access 
• better regulation and facilitation of the responsible development of unconventional gas resources 
• assessment of whether there is adequate competition in the wholesale gas market 
• provision of reliable and competitively priced liquid fuel supply. 

INCREASING ENERGY PRODUCTIVITY TO PROMOTE GROWTH 

To increase national energy productivity, the Australian Government will: 

• develop a National Energy Productivity Plan that provides national action in cooperation with the states and territories and industry, covering the built environment, equipment and appliances, and vehicles 
• improve national energy productivity by up to 40 per cent by 2030. 

INVESTING IN AUSTRALIA’S ENERGY FUTURE 

To secure investment in the energy sector, the Australian Government will: 

• further improve workforce productivity and reform the vocational education and training system so that it is focused on delivering the skills that employers need from their employees 
• streamline the approval and regulation of energy resources projects 
• better coordinate and improve accessibility of geoscience and environmental data and use information for industry-led community engagement on resource project approvals 
• enhance support for supply chains, value adding and export growth through Growth Centres and Austrade 
• attract and facilitate foreign direct investment into Australia’s resources and energy sector 
• ensure a technology-neutral policy and regulatory framework to support new energy sources and enable change, innovation and transformative technologies 
• maintain a better energy outlook and regular reporting to the Australian community 
• prioritise research to support technology development, in line with Australia’s competitive advantages and energy challenges. 

Energy White Paper Increasing  competition to keep prices down 

CHAPTER 1 

Increasing competition to keep prices down 

On 30 June 2004, the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) entered into the Australian Energy Market Agreement to give effect to the National Electricity Law and National Gas Law with the objective of promoting: 

• efficient investment in, and efficient operation and use of, electricity services for the long term interests of consumers of electricity”  

National Electricity Law 

• efficient investment in, and efficient operation and use of natural gas services for the long term interest of consumers of natural gas with respect to price, quality, safety, reliability and security of supply of natural gas 

The Australian Government is prioritising energy market reforms for more competition and consumer choice 

Privatisation and greater competition drive innovation and productivity 

Increasing competition to keep prices down 

Effective competition is the best way to deliver the energy products and services that consumers want at the lowest possible cost. Efficient markets give consumers choice in how they source and use their energy, whether they are households, small business or major industrial users, and enable suppliers to respond to those choices. The Australian Government places a high priority on energy market reforms that increase competition among energy suppliers and between energy suppliers and consumers. 

Consumers should have easy access to information to encourage the productive use of energy. Better information helps consumers engage with energy providers more effectively and enables them to make informed choices about their energy use. Technological change and innovative pricing are already providing consumers with greater choice in energy products and services. 

Investors and consumers need consistent and stable energy market policy and regulatory settings to give them confidence in their market decisions. The electricity market reforms that are underway need to be completed. An important area for reform is the further development of a liquid wholesale gas market that provides market signals for investment in additional supply through price transparency. The ability of Australia’s liquid fuel markets to provide reliable supply needs to be monitored. The bodies that govern energy markets also need to be reviewed to ensure they are functioning effectively in a changing policy environment. 

Unnecessary regulatory barriers and subsidies distort energy markets, shielding competition and diluting price signals¹. Further privatisation and greater competition are needed to drive innovation and productivity. A more transparent and flexible national energy market, particularly for gas, will help relieve consumer uncertainty about supply availability and pricing and improve price competition. 

While strong and effective markets are the cornerstone of the national energy policy framework, some parts of the energy supply system, such as networks, are natural monopolies. These elements must be regulated in a way that is consistent with the competitive market framework within which they operate. Network revenue determinations by regulators are an example. Regulation should generally encourage competition and consumer choice, not stifle it. Where regulation is needed, it should not be burdensome to the point where the costs outweigh the benefits. 

Policy interventions in the market framework should not be used to force market outcomes beyond the reliable and competitively priced supply of energy. They should allow markets to operate efficiently for competitive outcomes, while providing consumer protection. Interventions, such as the RET and solar feed-in-tariffs, can distort market signals and cause unintended disruptions to competitive energy markets. 

Some of the required changes to regulation can be made directly by the Australian Government, but in most instances will rely on cooperative action by all state and territory jurisdictions. While there is diversity in decision-making across jurisdictions, the goal should always be harmonised national regulation within the objectives of the national electricity and gas market legislation. This will benefit both energy suppliers and consumers who operate across jurisdictional borders. 

Working on energy market reforms with the states and territories through the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) Energy Council (Attachment 1) is key to increased competition. A consistent national energy market will remove the costs consumers pay to support different jurisdictional regulatory environments, improve reliability and introduce more competition to lower costs. 

Electricity 

Price trends 

Electricity prices have increased sharply in recent years, with household electricity prices rising by around 50 per cent nationally during 2010–2013 (ABS 2014). This price rise mainly reflects investment in poles and wires to ensure reliable supply to customers, especially during periods of peak demand. The carbon tax and other environmental policies, such as feed-in-tariffs, also inflated prices. 

Figure 1: National retail electricity price index, 1989–90 to 2013–14 

Electricity CPI 

Source: ABS 2014 

Network costs are the single largest component of the cost of supplying electricity. The significant investments by networks to replace ageing network infrastructure and meet peak demand (for example, as the number of air conditioning units increased) added to the total network cost. However, total demand has been falling since around 2009 due to factors such as structural changes in the economy, improved building efficiency and operations, and wide use of more efficient appliances. 

A consistent national energy market will lower regulatory costs, improving reliability and introducing more competition 

Changes to the permitted rates of return for network investments, removal of the carbon tax, and lower wholesale prices are stabilising retail prices 

Encouraging privatisation of state and territory electricity assets as part of the $5 billion Asset Recycling Initiative 

Further privatisation of energy assets and increased competition will supply energy to households and business as cost effectively as possible 

This means there is greater network cost to recover from a smaller quantity of electricity. This has resulted in significant increases in the cost per unit of electricity sold.  

The repeal of the carbon tax in 2014 removed a cost impost on consumers. The recent slowdown in network investment, changes to the rules determining permitted rates of return for those investments, and lower wholesale prices are expected to result in modest declines or stable retail prices across most jurisdictions over coming years (AEMC 2014). 

Figure 2: Trends in retail electricity prices by jurisdiction, 2008–09 to 2013–14 and forecasts to 2016–17 

Source: AEMC 2010, 2011, 2013a, 2013b, 2014 

Note: Prices are expressed as nominal cents per kilowatt hour (c/kWh) values and are exclusive of GST. 

The significant set of changes made in 2012 to the rules and tools available to the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) for setting network prices is now starting to deliver results (COAG Energy Council 2014a). The most recent draft (revenue) determinations by the AER propose to reduce retail prices markedly (AER 2014b). The determinations and associated new ‘benchmarking’ reports have highlighted significant opportunities for continuing improvements by network  businesses. Progress among the states and territories in moving toward effective levels of competition and deregulation of electricity retail pricing is also contributing to improved price competition. 

Further privatisation of energy assets and increasing competition will enable energy to be supplied to households and businesses as cost effectively as possible. Allowing new supply and technologies to enter energy markets on a commercial basis will also increase competition. The Australian Government is committed to encouraging states and territories to free up capital to invest in additional economic infrastructure through privatising state and territory-owned energy assets under the Asset Recycling Initiative² (The Commonwealth of Australia 2014b). 

Cross-subsidies and cost-reflective tariffs 

Many stakeholders believe the greatest priority for electricity market reform should be to reduce consumer cross-subsidies as part of the effort to give them greater power to manage their energy use. Cost-reflective tariffs, or the cost of supply at time of use, apply price signals to move use away from the more expensive peak use times. These tariffs minimise cross-subsidies between consumers arising from different use patterns, particularly those that place more demand on network capacity at peak times. 

Support for cost-reflective tariffs is often dependent on the parallel rollout of consumer education, better metering and policies that target customers experiencing hardship, like community service obligations. Other stakeholders oppose the removal of the current two-part tariff structures (fixed connection charge and variable consumption charge). They believe cost-reflective tariffs will unfairly affect some users who are unable to change their energy use pattern in response to price signals. However, the evidence suggests that most consumers will gain from these tariffs. 

The Australian Government is committed to cost-reflective tariffs. Consumers should be charged according to the actual costs of their energy use, including the costs of delivering energy at the time they use it and the full value of a permanent connection to a reliable energy supply. The most variable elements of cost relate to the wholesale price of electricity at the time of use, and building the maximum (peak) capacity needed in the electricity network. Using electricity at peak times places the greatest pressure on network capacity. Charging for the actual costs of electricity used, at the time of use, will send price signals to consumers that encourage a shift from using electricity at peak times when it costs the most to deliver. Peak use has been constant over time, despite the overall reductions in demand, and this is in large part due to the rapid uptake of air conditioners. 

To maintain reliability in supply, networks must have the capacity to cope with this peak pressure. The scale of peak demand therefore influences network costs, which is around half of the total electricity bill (AEMC 2014). Price signals that reduce peak demand reduce the need to increase network capacity, ultimately placing downward pressure on consumer prices. 

Case study: An example of cross-subsidies in air conditioning based on a representative consumer in one Victorian network area 

Cost-reflective tariffs improve price signals to reduce expensive peak demand and reduce network costs 

Improved information gives consumers greater ability to manage and control their energy costs 

In recent years, there has been unprecedented growth of distributed generation on the network, with consumers generating their own electricity, mostly in the form of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) panels. Initially this was supported through highly subsidised feed-in-tariffs in different jurisdictions and enhanced small-scale technology certificates under the RET, which were aimed at supporting the uptake of renewable energy. However, rapid reductions in PV prices, combined with higher electricity prices, have led to ongoing popularity and the growth in consumers generating their own electricity (Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet 2014). Support has moved away from ‘premium’ tariffs to ‘fair and reasonable’ feed-in-tariffs and small-scale technology certificates. If energy storage (battery) costs continue to reduce, some consumers with their own generation may choose to disconnect from the network to avoid network fees altogether. 

Consumers without distributed generation currently subsidise those with distributed generation. Distributed generators use less total electricity from the network and pay less, while still using the infrastructure for reliable supply, especially in locations where their output is low in periods when peak demand is high. For example, a recent analysis commissioned by the AEMC found the average South Australian household with north-facing PV installed under existing flat network tariffs is being subsidised by consumers without solar PV by around $117 a year (NERA 2014). 

Case study: Solar PV cross-subsidies 

NERA analysis indicates that the reduction in electricity demand from solar PV owners will result in lower required network investment. However, while the solar PV owner’s electricity bill will decrease by $202 a year because of lower electricity use, the reduction in overall network costs from the lower required investment is only a saving of $85 a year. Therefore, the networks recover the difference of $117 a year by increasing network prices for all other consumers. This subsidy is on top of feed-in-tariffs and small-scale technology certificates that distributed generation owners may receive. Over time prices may increase if aggregated demand continues to drop (in part due to ongoing take-up of distributed generation) and peak demand remains resilient, requiring networks to develop further capacity. 

Source: NERA 2014 

Price signals and advanced metering 

Price signals need to be complemented by the consumer’s ability to understand and respond to those signals. A more cost-reflective tariff arrangement is one where prices are based on the cost to supply electricity at the time it is used, which requires advanced household electricity meters (smart meters or, at a minimum, interval meters that track usage over time). Effective and timely consumer access to their own data from these meters (either directly or through an authorised agent) is critical to enable a more sophisticated response to cost-reflective tariffs and help consumers select the best services for their needs. Access to a consumer’s consumption profile must be readily available (for example, online) and accessible, if authorised by the consumer, to service providers and third parties to support consumer decision-making. 

Some stakeholders support a mandated rollout of advanced meters. Advanced meters allow consumers to gain the full benefits of demand-side measures, such as cost-reflective tariffs and energy efficiency technologies, to manage their energy use. Other stakeholders assert that metering should be at a customer’s choice because some customers will be unable to change their use patterns in response to information on their energy use from a meter and associated price signals from cost-reflective pricing. The Australian Government supports competitive and voluntary metering services, where the benefits exceed the costs, because they will drive the efficient rollout of advanced meters, based on the value they provide to consumers and market participants. 

Case study: Smart meters 

The Australian Government supports a market-driven approach to demand response arrangements for large energy users that gives them options to effectively respond to cost-reflective price signals and manage their costs. The Government also supports greater competition and choice in how energy users can respond to high wholesale price signals. 

Under a demand response mechanism, consumers participating in the wholesale market would be able to make the decision to continue consumption or reduce their consumption by a certain amount in response to high spot prices. They would be paid according to the amount of ‘demand response’ delivered to the market, which is calculated as the difference between their estimated ‘baseline consumption’ and their actual metered consumption for the demand response interval. While it would mainly assist large electricity users initially, in the future it could be adapted to demand responses from residential consumers who have the appropriate metering technology in place.  

The Australian Government supports demand response arrangements to help large energy users manage their costs 

Customers can make significant savings to their annual energy costs, by finding the market offers that best suit their needs 

Product choice 

In jurisdictions where ‘market offer’ retail electricity contracts are available, customers can make significant savings to their annual energy costs, 5–16 per cent according to AEMC estimates, by shopping around for the energy retailer and product that best suit their needs (AEMC 2013). Shopping around for a market retail contract or ‘switching’ between offers can be a sign of healthy market competition. Victoria continues to have a high overall proportion of customers switching between energy products. In 2013−14, Victoria recorded the highest ever rate of switching in both electricity (31 per cent of customers) and gas (28 per cent) (AER 2014b). The AER has identified that this is due to the availability of more choice of energy retailers, a more diverse range of contract offers and generally lower switching costs. 

Case study: Switching in the Victorian market 

Victoria is the preferred market for retailers to develop new products and services due to high levels of customer engagement and the additional options for innovation brought about by the availability of smart meters. Conservative estimates show that customers on an average ‘standing offer’ regulated electricity plan in Victoria could have saved at least $220 a year if they had changed to an average ‘ market offer’ plan available in June 2014. Additional savings could be made if a customer switched to the best advertised offer or negotiated a lower price than advertised. Once Victoria applies the National Energy Customer Framework and harmonises completely with national energy consumer protection laws, competition in the Victorian market will improve further, noting the benefits resulting from streamlined regulation. 

Source: AER 2014c 

Figure 3: National Electricity Market retail competition 

Switching activity in New South Wales and South Australia has also been steadily rising, 

with rates in 2012−13 the highest recorded in each state for both electricity and gas. Other states are in the process of making the transition to increased competition. Queensland’s switching rates have been lower than the states with retail price deregulation. Queensland is taking steps to improve retail market competition and plans to deregulate retail electricity prices for South East Queensland customers on 1 July 2015, as well as introducing a supporting consumer education campaign to help small customers become more confident and active market participants (McArdle, M 2014). 

Figure 4: Electricity customer switching rates by jurisdiction 

Source: AER 2014c 

Not all consumers will want, or be able, to take advantage of a more contestable market. However, the National Energy Retail Law and Rules (which apply in New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania, Australian Capital Territory and, from 1 July 2015, Queensland) provide for the basic or standard market retail contracts to deliver maximum choice and necessary basic protections to all energy consumers. The National Energy Customer Framework (NECF) provides important protections to consumers in hardship, including rules on customer repayment plans and connection and disconnection requirements (COAG Energy Council 2014b). Considering that tariff reform will impact on different customer groups in different ways, industry and consumer advocates are already exploring how community service obligations should respond to changed tariff design (ACOSS 2014). 

Customer switching (%) 

Not all consumers will want, or be able, to take advantage of a more contestable market 

Consumers should be empowered to make better choices to manage their energy costs 

Case study: Impacts of cost-reflective pricing 

Research from NERA Consulting, HoustonKemp and AGL Energy shows that more than 60 per cent of electricity customers would pay lower charges in the longer run with cost-reflective pricing. Two groups of electricity customers in particular are expected to benefit from cost-reflective prices. They are vulnerable customers (as their energy use is typically spread more outside peak times) and business customers that can reduce their electricity use during peak times. 

AGL research found that about 80 per cent of consumers in a hardship program would pay lower charges in the long run under cost-reflective pricing. 

Source: NERA 2014, HoustonKemp 2014, Simshauser P & Downer, D 2014 

Source: Simshauser P & Downer, D 2014 

Consumers should be empowered to make better choices to manage their energy costs and use. The Australian Government will work with state and territory governments and industry to achieve this goal, including through improving decision-making tools and information. The establishment of Energy Consumers Australia to increase consumer advocacy on national energy market matters of interest to residential and small business consumers is an important step in empowering consumers (COAG Energy Council 2014c). 

Price trends 

Australia’s gas markets are changing rapidly. The eastern Australian market, until now a domestic market, has commenced exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Supply now needs to meet domestic and international demand and domestic prices are naturally moving toward parity with higher international prices. This export industry, underpinned by foreign investment, provides an enormous opportunity for the nation’s economy³ . 

The new LNG export industry in Queensland has brought over $63 billion in direct investment in LNG projects, generated 30,000 construction jobs and is projected to keep at least 12,000 ongoing jobs from 2020, including direct employment and through contractors (BREE & Department of Industry 2014 and Energy Skills Queensland 2013). 

Figure 5: Gas use and export 2012–13 and export potential in 2018  

Source: BREE 2014c 

Gas supply 

The eastern Australian gas market is increasingly reliant on coal seam gas and shale gas as existing conventional resources become depleted (BREE & Department of Industry 2014). Some states have unnecessary regulatory and planning barriers and moratoriums that prevent much-needed supply. These barriers are increasing the risk of potential near-term supply tightness on the east coast and increasing prices⁴ . 

Rising wholesale gas prices and uncertainty around the rate of change in the market are directly affecting contracting activity of the industrial and manufacturing sectors. Uncertainty around the supply response, together with a lack of market mechanisms to assist price discovery and risk management, is exacerbating these problems⁵. This also affects the supply to retailers, who pass these costs onto smaller customers. Over the past 10 years, the retail price of gas for households has increased by 8 per cent a year. This is significantly faster than the rate of inflation (BREE 2014a). Increasing supply and improving market function are key to easing these price pressures, but continued movement towards parity with higher international prices are nonetheless inevitable. 

The LNG export industry provides an enormous opportunity for the national economy 

Increasing supply is the best way to ease price pressure but continued higher parity prices are nonetheless inevitable 

The Australian Government is committed to a future liquid wholesale gas market 

Figure 6: Retail household gas price index, 1989–90 to 2013–14 

Source: ABS 2014 

Unnecessary regulatory impediments that hinder the development of resources should be removed. The availability of market information should be improved to encourage appropriate and timely supply responses. The development of and investment in new and additional gas supply sources should be determined by market signals. 

Governments and industry need to work together on innovative strategies to improve transparency and competition and, therefore, gas market function. These settings will encourage technical innovation and investment, including by international companies. 

Ongoing reforms in the gas market aim to improve the transparency of market information. A competitive retail market will provide small customers with greater choice. However, switching levels will remain lower in gas than electricity in all jurisdictions, reflecting the lower number of retail suppliers in the gas market. Large users will have access to enhanced options for self-supply and shipment. 

Gas market reform 

The gas market has traditionally relied on long-term contracts between suppliers and customers. Early trading markets have emerged, trading largely in any short-term excess supply. The rapid transition in the domestic market emphasises the importance of a range of current and proposed reform activities. 

Case study: Wallumbilla Hub 

In March 2014, the COAG Energy Council, through the Australian Energy Market Operator, established the Wallumbilla gas supply hub to increase transparency and competition in Australia’s eastern gas markets. 

The hub is a voluntary market that supports the efficient trade and movement of gas so that market participants can better manage the financial risk associated with exposure to variable gas prices. The hub is an online portal with centralised trading, settlement, and clearing facilities to enable large gas users, generators, retailers and producers to manage their daily and future gas requirements. 

The hub will foster the entry of more participants in the market, increase competition, and set a transparent price signal for market participants. 

Competition amongst gas producers and additional supply is the best response to high prices 

Gas reservation is not supported by the Australian Government. Reservation would have negative consequences for the economy. Requiring a proportion of gas production to be reserved for the domestic market would act as a tax on the production of LNG. This would reduce profits from gas production, leading to fewer economic benefits that would not be offset by gains in other sectors of the economy. Less profitable gas production would attract less investment, resulting in reduced gas supply in the longer-term. 

Gas reservation is effectively a subsidy to domestic gas users. Artificially low domestic prices do not encourage gas users to use gas more efficiently or encourage innovation in the use of alternative fuels and processes. Ongoing investment in infrastructure that may not be required if users found alternatives to gas or used gas more efficiently is not efficient investment. 

The Australian Government believes that having diverse suppliers and encouraging additional supply are the best responses to high prices. Accordingly, the Australian Government supports the efforts of the Northern Territory Government to facilitate expansion of the gas pipeline network to connect the east coast to the Northern Territory. Such a link could help build a more integrated, resilient and diverse national energy market and provide gas users with access to multiple alternative sources of gas supply. 

Figure 7: Gas basins—development opportunities  

Source: GA and BREE 2014, Australian energy resource assessment. Note: Proposed pipeline routes are indicative only. 

The COAG Energy Council also supports the work the Northern Territory Government is doing to establish a competitive process for the private sector to bring forward proposals for the construction and operation of a pipeline to connect the northern and eastern gas markets. The Energy Council agrees that connecting these gas markets is the next step to developing a national gas grid and will contribute to developing a more national and competitive domestic gas market, which will help improve supply security. 

Stakeholders are also concerned about whether Australia would be able to respond adequately to a short-term disruption to gas supply. Australia has well-established structures to deal with emergency disruptions to gas. The National Gas Emergency Response Advisory Committee (NGERAC) provides advice to the Australian Government and state and territory energy ministers on efficient and effective responses to major natural gas supply shortages. NGERAC will convene when an incident has the potential to lead to a major natural gas supply shortage that threatens system security or essential services and requires curtailment of use and/or a multi-jurisdictional (government) response. A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on the national gas emergency response protocol underpins the NGERAC and ensures that natural gas supply interruptions are managed in a nationally consistent manner⁸ . 

Fuel prices change with international oil prices, value of the Australian dollar, global competition and pricing decisions by wholesalers and retailers 

198990 = 100 

Transport fuels 

Price trends 

The price of transport fuel affects consumer decisions around fuel consumption and types of fuel consumed. International prices of crude oil largely drive international refined petrol prices, including Singapore petrol prices. Australian wholesale petrol and diesel prices closely follow movements in Singapore petrol prices because around 43 per cent of Australia’s imports of refined petroleum products come from Singapore (BREE 2014a). 

Changes in the value of the Australian dollar, relative to the United States (US) dollar, also affect domestic retail prices because international prices are expressed in US dollars. Other factors that influence fuel prices are the levels of competition in local areas and pricing decisions by wholesalers and retailers. In terms of market share, the retail fuel market in Australia includes supermarkets (48 per cent), large independent retail chains (19 per cent) and branded refiners and wholesalers (33 per cent) (ACCC 2014). 

Petrol and diesel make up around three quarters of transport fuel used in Australia. After taking into account inflation, petrol and diesel prices have fluctuated in recent years. Average prices peaked in 2007–08, declining until 2009–10. Prices grew slightly in 2013–14 (BREE 2014a). 

Figure 8: Retail automotive fuel price index 

Source: ABS 2014 

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has consistently reported that Australian petrol prices are lower than many countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The ACCC monitors retail fuel prices in Australia to publish information about fuel price movements for consumers⁹. This monitoring allows the ACCC to investigate issues of concern and take action to protect consumers against misleading and anti-competitive conduct by fuel retailers if it finds sufficient evidence¹⁰ . 

Figure 9: Petrol prices and taxes in OECD countries 

Source: BREE 2014c 

Over the past five years, petrol prices have been relatively stable and increasing in line with consumption growth associated with economic recovery, as well as continued growing oil demand from emerging economies. There was a fall in prices in mid-2012, which was associated with increased uncertainty over the European debt crisis. Prices increased into late 2013—the price of the West-Texas Intermediate (WTI) that year averaged US$98 a barrel—as disruptions in a number of oil-producing economies reduced supply. In the period since, strong growth in supply from new sources, particularly in the US, has placed downward pressure on prices (BREE 2014a). 

World oil prices have fallen dramatically in latter half of 2014 

and early 2015 and, if sustained, could impact investment in Australia’s oil exploration and development 

World oil prices have fallen dramatically in the latter half of 2014 and early 2015, possibly because of low demand as a result of weak economic activity. More oil supplies are also available because of the increase in US oil production and oil producing countries maintaining production levels. If sustained, this drop in world oil prices could have an impact on investment in oil and gas exploration and development in Australia. 

Figure 10: International crude oil price movements (West-Texas Intermediate)  

Source: US Energy Information Administration 2015 

Figure 11: Petrol price indicators 

Source: BREE 2014a 

Consumption 

Energy consumption in the transport sector has been growing over the past 40 years, largely reflecting economic and population growth. Road transport is the dominant means of transport for goods and passengers in Australia. It has consistently accounted for around three quarters of transport energy use. The share of air transport has increased steadily over the same period, largely reflecting increased activity and popularity. 

Figure 12: Energy consumption in the transport sector, share of fuel, 2012–13 (%) 

Petrol, diesel and aviation fuel are the dominant transport fuels, accounting for over 90 per cent of transport energy use in 2012–13. The share of petrol in the transport fuel mix has decreased slowly over recent decades, outstripped by growth in diesel and aviation fuel. This reflects fuel switching and increased demand for diesel, particularly associated with mining activities and increased air transport activity. Alternative transport fuels accounted for 5 per cent of energy consumption in 2012–13, comprising liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (2.7 per cent), natural gas (1.6 per cent) and biofuels (0.6 per cent) (BREE 2014a). 

Alternative fuels 

Alternative transport fuels, including biofuels, ethanol, gaseous fuels (LNG, compressed natural gas or CNG and LPG), already contribute to diversity in the fuel supply. Despite government assistance to producers and importers over the last decade, including mandates, alternative transport fuels have struggled to gain a foothold in the domestic liquid fuel market. 

Since 2003–04, it has been Australian Government policy to base excise and excise-equivalent customs duty rates for transport fuels on their energy content. This principle ensures that fuels are taxed fairly and transparently, with competitive neutrality between fuels¹¹ . 

Supply reliability is maintained through the depth, liquidity and diversity of international crude and fuel markets Australia’s liquid fuel supplies could grow in the long term through new oil discoveries 

The introduction and phasing in of excise on gaseous fuels with a 50 per cent discount on the full energy content rate was legislated in 2011. In the 2014–15 Budget, the Government announced that it would apply the energy content-based excise with a 50 per cent discount to biofuels and re-establish twice-yearly indexation on fuels excise, based on the consumer price index (The Commonwealth of Australia 2014a). 

Future fuels such as shale oil, hydrogen and synthetic fuels have the potential to contribute to Australia’s future transport fuel mix, but are unlikely to be cost competitive in the short-term. 

A critical precursor to turning this situation around is increased consumer acceptance of alternative fuels and production of cost competitive alternative fuels without ongoing assistance. Strengthening the alternative transport fuels sector to gain a larger market share will only occur through successful integration into the broader fuels market. 

Reliability of transport fuel supply 

Australia imports around 80 per cent of the crude oil it refines into liquid fuels and around 44 per cent of the refined liquid fuels used in Australia (BREE 2014a).  

Australia exports around 75 per cent of its oil production. Most of Australia’s oil production occurs off the north-west coast of Western Australia, which is closer to Asian refineries than the domestic refineries on the east coast. It is therefore more profitable to export. With declining east coast production, domestic refineries on the east coast now mostly rely on imported feedstock. In addition to costs, crude grades produced in Australia are generally not as well suited for use by Australian refineries as those from other countries (BREE 2014a). 

The number of domestic refineries has reduced from six in 2012 to four in 2015 due to closures. This reflects the comparative disadvantages of Australian refineries, including ageing, small size and labour and construction costs. Refinery capacity has declined from 38.4 gigalitres in 2010–11 to 34.2 gigalitres in 2013–14. Substantial increases in refining capacity in Asia have placed pressure on Australian refineries over recent years and this is expected to continue (BREE 2014a). 

The present market approach has provided a diversity of supply that has delivered minimal disruption to Australia’s fuel supplies over many years. Opportunities remain to grow Australia’s liquid fuel supplies in the long-term, with new discoveries being made, including the discovery of oil in the Canning Basin in 2014. 

The Australian Government considers that supply reliability will be maintained because of the depth, liquidity and diversity of international crude and fuel markets, combined with the existing Australian stockholding and at-sea tanker arrangements of commercial companies. Security of supply will continue to be monitored through the periodic NESA review. Additionally, emergency response arrangements and capacity will continue to be tested regularly to ensure preparedness. The 2011 NESA concluded there was sufficient global oil production and refining capacity to supply the Australian market to 2035, even with declining domestic refining capacity. The Government will consider and release a new NESA by mid-2015¹² . 

As energy markets evolve, there is a need to ensure they are working as efficiently as possible 

The Australian Government believes the timeliness of the Energy Council’s response to change can be improved 

There needs to be a continuing commitment to genuinely national energy market arrangements 

connected to these main systems. There are also some communities entirely off the grid using stand-alone energy generation systems. At this stage, the electricity systems in Western Australia and the Northern Territory operate independently and there is little prospect of interconnection with the eastern states’ systems due to the distances and costs involved (AEMO does provide gas retail contract and market administration services in Western Australia, via the Retail Energy Market Company- REMCo). 

The COAG Energy Council leads national energy market reform and development. The Energy Council is the key mechanism to achieve national harmonisation in energy policy and regulation for suppliers and consumers with cross-jurisdictional boundaries. Australia needs to present a consistent national approach to international investment, as well as the export and import of energy-related products and services. While each jurisdiction maintains decision-making powers and, in many cases, ownership of electricity assets, strategic and harmonised national action relies upon direction and agreement of the Energy Council. 

It is critical that the Energy Council operates effectively as energy markets evolve. The Australian Government will seek the development of a clearly prioritised Energy Council work programme that reinvigorates the commitment to a genuinely national energy market.  

In 2015, the Energy Council will review the governance of the NEM, including the governance arrangements of the three energy market bodies: AER, AEMO and AEMC. The review will examine the broad energy market institutional structure created by COAG, as well as the legislative framework that establishes and assigns functions to the institutions. COAG will also review the effectiveness of the Energy Council itself periodically. 

The Australian Government believes the timeliness of the Energy Council’s response to change can be improved. The energy market bodies must be able to respond more quickly, particularly to a more aggressive work programme of the Energy Council, including dealing more quickly with proposed rule changes. 

Where the Australian Government believes a timely rule change is in the interests of consumers, it will consider submitting rule change requests directly to the AEMC to expedite the process after consulting with the jurisdictions. 

There needs to be a continuing commitment to genuinely national energy market arrangements. Actions by jurisdictions that inhibit the capacity of retailers to compete across borders are inconsistent with the intention of the NEM and increase the regulatory burden for all market participants and ultimately raise costs for consumers. 

An example is the National Energy Consumer Framework (NECF). No jurisdiction has accepted the NECF in full without variation. The existence of multiple consumer protection regimes creates barriers to entry, for example, increased regulatory, administrative and compliance cost, for retailers wishing to expand their operations across borders. While some variations may have been considered necessary, the negative impacts on competition should be carefully considered against the perceived benefits. 

Energy White Paper Increasing energy productivity to promote growth 

CHAPTER 2 

Increasing energy productivity to promote growth  “… along with capital and labour, energy is a critical contributor to productivity and we need to get smarter about energy if we’re going to keep up with our competitors. 

The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, 12 December 2014 

Improved energy productivity will reduce household and business energy costs and increase national productivity and competitiveness 

Increasing energy productivity to promote growth 

Improved energy productivity will reduce household and business energy costs and encourage economic growth. Energy productivity aims to lower the ratio of energy costs to the value of output received from the use of that energy. Energy productivity can be improved through energy market reforms such as increased competition and cost-reflective pricing that are aimed at lowering costs as well as energy efficiency measures. 

The productive use of energy can lower energy costs by improving both the output and benefit received per unit of energy consumed. The more productive use of energy can delay the need for new energy supply infrastructure, which in turn relieves the need for price increases to recover that investment. 

Increasing Australia’s energy productivity relies on the energy market reforms outlined in Chapter 1, particularly those that increase choice in energy services. Increased competition and flexible tariff structures provide this choice. Choice needs to be complemented by equipping consumers with appropriate information and decision-making tools to select the services that benefit them (for example, ensuring they select the best tariff to save them money, rather than one that might increase their bills). There are significant barriers to the timely access to and sharing of consumers’ own data, particularly in developing new systems to support smart meters. There is a role for Government to ensure energy consumers have access to the information and tools they need to make informed choices. Other barriers, such as split incentives (for example, in cases where building owners may be less motivated to make improvements than their tenants who pay for the energy consumed) will also need to be addressed. 

Improvements in energy productivity can be achieved through a range of more effective choices, including better buildings; vehicle fuel efficiency; efficient equipment and appliances; and action by governments, small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) and large industry¹. Energy productivity can also improve through consumer choice that reduces the costs of sourcing and delivering energy, such as switching to more cost-effective fuels or reducing peak demand. New technologies can help improve energy productivity. Chapter 3 outlines how investment in new technologies is being encouraged. 

Figure 14 shows national energy consumption by sector. The extent to which energy productivity can be improved will vary by sector, but the overall scale of consumption also indicates the extent to which gains can be made in each sector. In the five years to 2011 over 164 petajoules of energy savings potential was identified for Australia’s industrial sector. This represented 2.7 per cent of Australia’s total energy use (equivalent to the energy use of 3.3 million Australian households and their cars for a year). The identified savings opportunities with a payback period of four years or less equate to possible annual net financial benefits of over $1.2 billion (Department of Industry 2013). 

Figure 14: National primary energy consumption by sector 

Source: BREE 2014a 

Figure 15 shows that since the mid-1990s the rate of economic growth (as GDP) exceeds the growth in energy use. 

Figure 15: Annual growth in Australia’s energy consumption 1964–65 to 2012–13

Improved energy productivity can assist with Australia’s emissions reduction task 

This trend in reduced energy intensity is across all states (Figure 16). 

994–95 1996–97 1998–99 2000–01 2002–03 2004–05 2006–07 2008–09 2010–11 2012–13 

Source: BREE 2014a 

Australia’s energy productivity, as measured by the ratio of real GDP to primary energy consumption, has improved at an average rate of 1.6 per cent a year from 2000–01 to 2012–13. Improvements in energy productivity are due to changes in the structure of the economy to less energy-intensive sectors, such as the commercial and services sector, relative to energy-intensive sectors like manufacturing. Other factors that have contributed to this positive outcome are improved energy efficiency and fuel switching. The level of renewable electricity generation has also played a role. 

From 2014–15 to 2049–50, Australia’s primary energy consumption is projected to grow at the rate of 1 per cent a year and GDP is expected to grow at 2.7 per cent a year. This means Australia’s energy productivity could improve by around 1.7 per cent a year, or over 25 per cent by 2030, under business as usual. 

Improved energy productivity can help reduce emissions and assist Australia’s emissions reduction efforts. The stationary energy sector produces 51 per cent of Australia’s emissions and the transport sector 16 per cent (Department of Environment 2014). The link between energy productivity and emissions reduction is highlighted by projects supported under the ERF that will help contribute to energy productivity (Department of Environment 2015b). Approved and draft methodologies under the ERF already cover transport, building and industrial processes and many projects in these sectors will improve energy productivity. 

The Clean Energy Finance Corporation invests in projects that use a commercial approach to overcoming market barriers and mobilising investment in renewable energy, as well as low emissions and energy efficiency technologies. The Australian Government has announced that it will abolish this agency, but will maintain a commitment to existing projects. 

The Australian Government led the development of the G20 Energy Efficiency Action in 2014, which will support international collaborative action on the efficiency and emissions performance of vehicles (particularly heavy duty vehicles), networked devices, buildings, industrial processes, and electricity generation². It will also work on financing for energy efficiency projects. Australia also supports international collaboration on energy efficiency through the International Partnership on Energy Efficiency Cooperation, the IEA, and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation group. 

Coordinated action 

The COAG Energy Council has agreed to a concerted effort and coordinated policy framework to improve national energy productivity. Coordination is particularly important because of the diverse activities that contribute to energy productivity and the need for complementary effort by all levels of government, business and households. 

The Australian Government will lead the development of a National Energy Productivity Plan. In addition to coordinating national action, this plan will provide a focal point for stimulating action that increases awareness about the benefits of improved energy productivity. It will recognise the roles played by stakeholders, such as the Australian Government, the states and territories, local governments, industry and households. Each measure in the plan will be delivered by the most appropriate stakeholder or through collaborative action. 

A national energy productivity improvement target could highlight the combined outcomes of diverse energy productivity actions. A target will be determined as part of the development of the National Energy Productivity Plan. A national improvement target of up to 40 per cent by 2030 is achievable, but will require contributions from a broad range of sectors and actions, both regulated and voluntary. Opportunities for further improvements in industry will be largely voluntary action as major energy users respond to energy price signals. 

Determining the actual energy productivity target should be done concurrently with the emissions reduction target. This will enable energy productivity targets to be aligned with the emissions reduction effort, recognising the important contribution of energy productivity to least cost emissions reduction. 

The following sections outline how actions in various sectors will combine to form the coordinated policy approach of the National Energy Productivity Plan, along with the energy market reforms and technology innovation outlined in this White Paper. 

The Australian Government will lead coordinated action to improve national energy productivity 

A national target could be up to 40 per cent improvement by 2030 

Information on building management allows occupants to get the best energy performance from their buildings 

Buildings 

Whether residential or commercial, the energy productivity of buildings (generally the amenity provided for the amount of energy used) is determined by the thermal properties of the building shell, the way the building is managed and the appliances used in it. This section deals with the building shell and management. Appliances are considered in a separate section. 

The quality of new buildings typically exceeds that of older building stock. Given the long-lived nature of buildings, the overall improvement in quality relies on that of new buildings and the retrofit of existing buildings. The quality of new buildings is determined under the National Construction Code. This code sets the minimum standards (for example, star ratings) to be achieved, which can be measured by tools accredited by the Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme or NatHERS (residential) (Department of Industry and Science 2015b) or by using other methods³. Monitoring is principally around compliance with approved plans. 

Improvements in new building quality can be achieved by both higher standards and improved compliance with standards. Standards are set cooperatively with the states and territories, while compliance is a state and territory responsibility, often devolved to local government. The Australian Government will continue to work with states and territories to maintain an appropriate level of minimum standards and encourage the strengthening of assessment of compliance with these standards. 

The Commercial Building Disclosure Program uses the National Australian Built Environment Ratings System (NABERS) assessment tool to determine the energy rating of commercial office buildings for mandatory disclosure at point of sale or lease⁴ . 

Information on building management allows occupants to get the best energy performance from their buildings. Information sources, such as the Australian Government’s websites Your Energy Savings, Energy Efficiency Exchange and YourHome, will be continually updated and improved to provide this information (Department of Industry and Science 2015c, 2015d, 2015e). Information on improving energy management systems allows industry and business of all sizes to enhance their energy productivity through more efficient and productive operations. The Energy Efficiency Exchange website, a joint initiative of the Australian and state and territory governments, provides this information. It will be updated and improved regularly to ensure the information meets the requirements of often time-poor energy managers. 

Case study: Effects of more energy efficient houses and appliances  

In 2006 and 2010 energy efficiency standards were increased for new homes. Houses built after 2010 use around 30 per cent less electricity than houses built before 2007. This is true for both average days and peak demand days. Since 2006, energy efficiency standards have increasingly improved and more efficient household appliances have been adopted. 

Leading products could be recognised through product labelling or an industry awards scheme 

Appliances and equipment 

The three principal means of improving the energy productivity of appliances are labelling to inform consumers, minimum energy performance standards and recognition of highest performing products. There are minimum energy performance and labelling (star rating) programmes in place under the Greenhouse and Energy Minimum Standards (GEMS) Act 2012. The continuous improvement in labelling and minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) under GEMS will continue⁵ . 

Leading products could be recognised through product labelling or an industry awards scheme to give consumers information on high-performing products. Further options will be considered during the development of the National Energy Productivity Plan. 

Case study: Efficiency of new air conditioners 

Air conditioners today are around one-third more efficient than a decade ago. 

During this time, Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) were introduced.  

Access to and use of energy productivity data continue to be hindered by fragmentation in its collection and management. The organisations holding relevant data include various state and territory government agencies, Australian Government departments, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Geoscience Australia, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and the energy market bodies (AER, AEMO and AEMC). Energy market service providers, including networks and retailers, also hold data. 

A better coordinated platform for energy use data would support better decision-making (planning, policy and market development) by policy makers, researchers, business and individuals. Existing forecasting and planning processes, based on limited data and in the face of structural change, have increasingly struggled to accurately estimate changing energy use trends. Ongoing changes driven by new technologies and demand-side services reinforce the need to better understand energy use trends. For example, in the 2000s forecasts of electricity demand in the NEM failed to anticipate electricity demand plateauing, then falling, even as it was happening. Missing the fall in demand led to overinvestment in network infrastructure, resulting in higher electricity prices for consumers. 

Recent efforts to improve forecasting and planning have been hampered by the fact that existing data sets are spread across many data custodians, both government and industry, and are difficult to access and aggregate. The Australian Government will coordinate data aggregation to build a greater understanding of how energy use and trends at the micro, individual consumer level relates to (and adds up to) energy use and trends at the macro, economy-wide level. The data will inform the development of policies, programmes and effective business planning to improve Australia’s energy productivity. 

As well as collating existing data, the data platform needs to be maintained by better coordination of data collection, analysis and communication, and the development of advanced analytic tools and modelling⁷ . 

A better coordinated data platform on energy use will help understand and forecast changes in energy demand 

Energy White Paper Investing in Australia’s energy future 

CHAPTER 3 

Investing in Australia’s energy future 

The Government is determined to restore the policy settings that make Australia an attractive investment destination. This is particularly important for the energy sector, where we cannot afford to be complacent in the face of significant competition from other energy exporting nations. 

Energy resources exports will continue to underpin the Australian economy 

Investing in Australia’s energy future 

Energy resources investment 

Maintaining a strong pipeline of energy resources investment 

Australia’s energy sector underpins a modern economy and a high national standard of living. The sector accounted for 7 per cent of GDP and $71.5 billion in export earnings in 2013–14. Energy-related industries also employed around 170,000 people over the same period and provided significant infrastructure investments (BREE 2014a). 

Australia is among the world’s largest exporters of LNG, coal and uranium. With the right policy settings, our importance to global energy markets will continue to grow, particularly to meet the increasing demand for energy from Asia. Australia has the potential to reap substantial economic gains in meeting future global energy demand, which is expected to increase by over one-third by 2040 (IEA 2014a). 

In 2012, fossil fuels accounted for 15.5 terawatt hours (TWh) or 68 per cent of global electricity generation. The IEA, under its New Policies Scenario, expects this to increase to 22.2 TWh or 55 per cent of global generation by 2040. Nuclear power is also expected to grow from 11 per cent to 12 per cent of global generation over the same period (IEA 2014a). 

Note: ORF = Other refinery feedstock 

Ongoing access to large volumes of coal and gas will also underpin our energy generation mix for some decades, but these fuels will be increasingly exposed to competition from renewable energy. 

The Australian Government’s $476 million Industry Skills Fund will help Australian industry access training and support services, as well as develop innovative training solutions⁴. This will help ensure Australia has the highly skilled workforce it needs to adapt to new business growth opportunities, rapid technological change and marketdriven structural adjustment (Department of Industry and Science 2015f). 

Some stakeholders have expressed concern about loosening the regulation of the temporary work (skilled) visa (subclass 457), arguing the programme requires much greater monitoring and enforcement to minimise abuse. They note the labour market testing requirement is essential in ensuring that temporary foreign labour is used for genuine skills shortages. 

Other stakeholders support measures to make it easier to employ workers on such visas because they believe labour market testing imposes unnecessary costs on business and a flexible approach is critical for delivering projects and productivity. They have called for improved flexibility of the programme to assist in mitigating the current skills shortages. In 2014, the Australian Government commissioned an independent review into integrity in the 457 programme and the reforms recommended by this review will be implemented by the end of 2015–16⁵ . 

The Australian Government has introduced reforms into the Parliament to ensure negotiations for greenfields agreements to cover new projects, including new energy resources projects, are timely and undertaken in good faith. The reforms will apply good faith bargaining requirements to negotiations and introduce an optional three-month negotiation period, after which the employer can seek approval of the greenfields agreement from the Fair Work Commission⁶ . 

There has been unprecedented capital investment and growth in the energy resources sector over the past decade. The sector is transitioning as major investment projects move from the construction phase to a less labour and capital-intensive production phase (Deloitte Access Economics 2013). However, there remains a need to address productivity in construction activity in the resources sector⁷ . 

Investing in Indigenous opportunities 

Resources projects offer great opportunity to regional and remote business, with good potential for Indigenous participation⁸. On 1 July 2015, the Australian Government will implement a reformed Remote Jobs and Communities Program (RJCP) to end passive welfare by engaging job seekers in activities that help get them a job and benefit their community. Key RJCP reforms include expanded Work for the Dole programme arrangements and a demand-driven employment model to give providers and employers incentives to place job seekers in ongoing employment. Up to $25 million a year will be available to establish and develop social enterprises and small businesses in remote communities that provide employment or enhanced work-like experiences for job seekers. 

There is opportunity to address the workforce supply issues in the energy sector by better linking the sector to Indigenous job seekers. The Vocational Training and Employment Centres (VTECs) model, for example, links real employment opportunities to job-specific training for Indigenous job seekers. The energy sector could easily be assisted by this or similar demand-driven models. To support real and sustainable jobs for Indigenous Australians, support may also be provided through the Indigenous Advancement Strategy: Jobs, Land and Economy Programme for activities that support employment outcomes for Indigenous job seekers⁹ . 

The Australian Government is establishing the $476 million Industry Skills Fund  to enable Australia to have the skilled workforce it needs 

Indigenous job seekers should be better linked to workforce opportunities 

Red tape and its cost to business can be reduced by streamlining approvals and regulation 

A 2005 MoU on Indigenous Employment and Enterprise Development between the Australian Government and the Minerals Council of Australia has contributed to developing self-sustaining and prosperous Indigenous communities in resources regions. This has enabled individuals to create and take up employment and business opportunities. The Australian Government, in collaboration with industry and Indigenous stakeholders, will continue to encourage Indigenous business opportunities in the procurement supply chain and promote Indigenous business development. 

Case study: ‘Getting it Right: Indigenous enterprise success in the resource sector’

 In September 2014, the Australian Government, in collaboration with the Minerals Council of Australia, released the booklet Getting it Right: Indigenous enterprise success in the resource sector. Produced as one of the activities under the MoU on Indigenous Employment and Enterprise Development between the Australian Government and the Minerals Council of Australia, this handbook aims to: 

• inspire more Indigenous people and enterprises to establish business relationships with resources companies and operations by showcasing a number of Indigenous SME success stories in the procurement supply chain of the resources sector 
• encourage more resources companies and operations to engage Indigenous enterprises in their procurement chains 
• demonstrate the critical success factors that have formed the foundation of the successful Indigenous enterprises. 

Investing in deregulation and streamlining 

Major projects sometimes need more than 70 different primary and secondary approvals, licences, permits and authorisations. The Australian Government believes one-stop shops for environmental approvals to remove duplication in environmental approvals processes will reduce both the cost and time it takes to assess projects. Work is already underway to confer certain regulatory powers in some jurisdictional waters to the National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority (NOPSEMA). The Australian Government supports this approach in all state and territory waters¹⁰ . 

There is also work underway to ensure that the offshore oil and gas resource management framework for Commonwealth waters continues to support efficient, innovative and cost-effective commercial exploration and development consistent with the national interest¹¹ . 

Differences in standards between Australia and its global trading partners for sectors such as industrial chemicals and equipment often lead to cost and delays in sourcing materials for energy resources projects. Where appropriate, harmonising Australian standards with credible international standards by accrediting endorsed international standards will reduce duplication and inconsistency. 

Investing in information 

Energy resources, technologies and services are also highly dependent on the information sciences. Pre-competitive geoscience and environmental information, mapping and monitoring energy sources, the cost and uptake of technologies and the identification of supply risks are critical to ongoing energy resources development. 

The availability of pre-competitive geoscience information helps position Australia in attracting investment. It helps encourage exploration and the opening up of new resources in new locations and for new sources. 

The Australian Government is committed to providing high-quality pre-competitive geoscience information to encourage the exploration and development of energy resources. 

Figure 19: Australia’s energy exploration expenditure 

Source: BREE 2014a 

Investing in pre-competitive geoscience encourages exploration and investment 

Improving energy outlook capability will provide a forward looking view of threats and opportunities 

Public concern can be addressed through trusted, independent and reliable information 

The availability of environmental information helps speed up the environmental assessment process and assure stakeholders that approval decisions are being taken on the basis of sound and authoritative information. Publicly available information therefore helps project proponents by reducing cost and the time taken for assessments. The use of transparent and independent information in the assessment process will help reduce stakeholder concern about the potential impact of projects¹² . 

Australia needs to be able to respond quickly to major changes in the way we produce, transport and use energy resources and energy. The need to change could come from a breakthrough in the cost or availability of disruptive technology. It could also result from better monitoring to anticipate changes in consumer demand or resources availability. 

Some of the most significant impacts on Australia’s energy markets in recent years have come from international developments, such as the rise of unconventional gas production in advanced economies such as the US, the falling oil price in the latter half of 2014 and early 2015 and the decline in nuclear power in Japan. Such developments have the potential to substantially realign global energy markets over the next few years. A better outlook capability will help with early identification of potential change¹³ . 

Investing in community engagement 

Addressing stakeholder concern is becoming increasingly important for resources projects. Local communities can be major beneficiaries of responsible resources development. Securing social licence to operate is an increasingly significant issue as regulators respond to public concern in ways that reflect public disquiet rather than taking an objective science-based approach. 

This is most obvious in the development of coal seam gas (CSG) resources. Some stakeholders argue the Australian Government should retain project approval rights for environmental issues, in addition to state approvals. Other stakeholders support the streamlining of environmental approvals for CSG. They argue that decisions about CSG should be based on evidence and more effort should be invested in engaging with the community about project impacts. The Australian Government is committed to achieving co-existence outcomes that balance the need for new gas development with the rights of landholders and the integrity of prime agricultural land and water resources. The gas supply strategy the Government is developing with stakeholders will inform communities and facilitate the responsible development of gas resources. 

Better engagement with affected communities should be a priority for energy resources project developers. There is also a role for government in providing robust and transparent information so these communities can take confidence in the evidence base being used in decision-making. The Australian Government is assisting in this regard through the work of national science institutions such as the CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience Australia. The Independent Expert Scientific Committee on Coal Seam Gas and Large Coal Mining Development provides scientific advice to decision makers on the impact that CSG and large coal mining developments may have on Australia’s water resources. The Australian Government also funds bioregional assessments and other research (Department of Environment 2015a)¹⁴ . 

Investing in new energy sources and technologies 

Australia’s energy future should enable the rapid adoption of new energy supply technologies, improvements in existing technologies and new energy sources that will help enhance economic development, productivity and affordability. Many such technologies will also reduce the emissions intensity of the current generation fleet. 

Innovation to deliver reliable, low cost, sustainable energy will help Australia maintain a leading position in the export of energy resources and services in a highly cost competitive global market. Adoption of new technologies should be a priority in the whole energy value chain, from exploration and development through to end use.  

Australia is a world leader in many areas of emerging energy supply technology, but it does not need to lead the development of every energy supply technology suitable for deployment here. There are many areas where no local research and development is required for Australia to apply new technologies as they do not need either further development or adaption to Australian conditions. For others, where there is a need, targeted research and development can provide better outcomes. 

Case study: Pushing the boundaries on solar Research and development of solar technologies is progressing rapidly and Australia is at the forefront. Researchers at the University of New South Wales (UNSW), with funding support from the Australian Government, converted over 40 per cent of the sunlight hitting a solar installation into electricity, building on their previous record. Australia is also at the forefront of solar thermal technologies. Australian researchers at CSIRO, in partnership with Spanish company Abengoa Solar, have generated the hottest pressurised “supercritical” steam ever produced using energy from the sun to drive a modern, highly efficient steam turbine. This accomplishment moves solar thermal energy a step closer to being able to compete with fossil fuels. 

Australia must have the right environment to support the early adoption of a proven solution developed elsewhere. This includes targeting the right global collaborations, building skills, preparing the regulatory system and paying any additional costs of fitting a new technology to Australian conditions. The introduction of new technologies will require Australia’s energy sector to be open and attractive to domestic and international investment¹⁵ . 

Australia’s energy system should be capable of rapid adoption of new technologies and energy sources 

Prioritising investment where there are local issues to solve or where Australia has a competitive advantage 

Australia needs to better focus government investment on supporting emerging energy technologies, rather than continue to provide assistance in an ad-hoc manner through a wide variety of programme managers. The Australian Government currently supports a portfolio of organisations and activities to deliver on innovation in the energy sector, including through universities and national scientific organisations. 

Direct Australian Government support for energy technology research and development and deployment (RD&D) will increasingly be provided on a technology-neutral basis. A more coordinated approach would allow for better prioritisation of activity in new energy technologies where there are local issues to solve, areas where Australia has a natural resources advantage and where we have industry capability to commercialise our research. 

Australia’s RD&D investment should focus on new energy technologies, improvements in existing technologies and new energy sources that will help enhance economic development, productivity and affordability. Many such technologies will also reduce emissions. Careful investment decisions and real choices are needed to maximise the benefit from the successful development and deployment of a new technology. 

Innovation in extracting or utilising our abundant energy resources so they can be used domestically at least cost is a priority. Innovation in areas where technology change will assist Australia’s export advantage should also be a priority. For example, as one of the world’s largest exporters of fossil fuels, it is in Australia’s national interest to contribute to the development of low emissions technologies globally. Without commercially available and cost competitive low emissions fossil fuel technologies, there is a growing long-term risk for our fossil fuel export industry in an emissions constrained future. 

Industry and government collaboration 

Governments, by their nature, are slower to advance new technologies than companies with commercial drivers to get new products to market. Governments tend to target funding at the early stages of research and development because the private sector has difficulty in capturing all the benefits from early-stage research. Industry investment in later stages supports the development of technologies. Industry investment signals a technology’s potential and industry applicability. 

The Australian Government is committed to working with industry and researchers to ensure the $9.2 billion that is invested annually in science and research is targeted to deliver the best outcomes for the nation, as well as improve commercial outcomes and practical benefits. Australia has a global reputation for producing high quality scientific research, but lags behind international competitors on measures of translating that research into commercial outcomes. Commercial outcomes include the ability to capture the spillover benefits of research and technology development. 

The rate of collaboration between Australian businesses and researchers is comparatively low. Australia ranks 29th and 30th out of 30 OECD countries on the proportion of large businesses and SMEs collaborating with higher education and public research institutes on innovation (Department of Education & Department of Industry 2014). 

The recently established Commonwealth Science Council will advise the Government on areas of national strength and current and future capability¹⁶. It will help find ways to improve connections between government, research organisations, universities and business. This will better translate science and research into commercial outcomes. Energy, resources and transport are among the priority areas considered by the Council. 

The Council agreed that further consultation on science and research priorities, and the practical challenges underpinning them, should be undertaken for consideration at its next meeting in 2015. 

The process to develop the priorities will take into account areas of research excellence, industrial strength, global trends, comparative advantage and Australia’s interests and needs. Research to support the energy and resources sector should include the development of reliable, low cost, sustainable energy supplies and enhance the long-term viability of Australia’s resources industries. 

The Industry Innovation and Competitiveness Agenda sets out the Australian Government’s new direction on industry policy to boost productivity and competitiveness. It creates Growth Centres in five high-growth industries, including oil, gas and energy resources, and mining equipment, technology and services. 

The Oil, Gas and Energy Resources Growth Centre and the Mining Equipment, Technology and Services Growth Centre will be industry-led. They will foster better use by industry of Australia’s world-class researchers so that the community sees stronger commercial returns from the Government’s annual investment in research. They will promote the innovation required to increase global competitiveness and productivity and deregulation reform. 

The Australian Government’s Entrepreneurs’ Infrastructure Program supports industry in a range of areas, including improving the capability of small business, such as by connecting them to the research sector (Department of Industry and Science 2015g). Innovative small business better supports supply chains for energy resources projects¹⁷ . 

The Australian Government will establish research priorities to deliver the best commercial outcomes for its $9.2 billion annual investment 

Implementing the $188.5 million Industry Growth Centres Initiative to lift the competitiveness and productivity of  the oil, gas and energy resources sector 

Competitiveness and commercial returns will be increased through Industry Growth Centres 

Products and services exports will be grown through active promotion in overseas markets 

Investing in promoting Australia’s capabilities 

International engagement is integral to Australia’s ongoing prosperity and a vital element of the Government’s vision for enabling growth and productivity for globally competitive industries. Open and transparent global energy markets are the best means of promoting Australia’s economic interests. 

Capitalising on the benefits of energy resources exports requires active promotion in overseas markets, with benefits flowing directly through participation in the projects, and indirectly through supply chains. The promotion of investment into Australia and Australian investment internationally is one of the four pillars of Australia’s economic diplomacy policy¹⁸ . 

The Australian Government’s enhancement of economic diplomacy directly supports the prosperity of Australians by liberalising trade, boosting economic growth, encouraging investment and assisting business. Economic diplomacy uses our international diplomatic assets to advance Australia’s prosperity and global prosperity, based on four key pillars: 

1. promoting trade—pursing trade liberalisation through bilateral, regional and global trade agreements that open up new markets for Australian exporters and sustain a strong, rules-based architecture for global trade 
2. encouraging growth—supporting global growth, including by using Australia’s aid programme and other measures to promote economic reform and infrastructure, and through regional and global economic cooperation forums 
3. attracting investment—promoting investment into Australia and Australian investment internationally 
4. supporting Australian business—advancing the interests of Australian business overseas, developing a stronger private sector in our region, and promoting Australian tourism. 

The Australian Government recognises the importance of inward foreign investment to the resources and energy sector and Austrade, working with the states and territories, has identified the industry as one of its five national investment priorities. Investment is targeted into new exploration and development opportunities, as well as into gaps in supply chains, where new entrants often bring technologies and skills that assist in driving productivity improvements across the industry.  Investment into energy efficiency and renewable energy projects is also a target of Austrade, including identifying opportunities where renewable energy solutions can be applied to and assist mining projects through the provision of off-grid power solutions that will drive productivity gains. 

Working through Austrade’s extensive off-shore network, critical markets for investment into Australia’s resources and energy sector include Western Europe, the US, China, India, Japan and Republic of Korea. The recruitment of Senior Investment Specialists across all priority sectors has recently added commercial experience and acumen to Austrade’s investment attraction efforts. 

The Australian Government has taken steps to help grow energy resources exports, including free trade agreements with Japan, the Republic of Korea and China, and regional cooperative efforts through the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement. 

Australia’s future electricity mix 

Australia’s large quantities of traditional energy resources provide low cost, predictable and reliable power for Australia and the world. However, the use of fossil fuels in generating electricity from the current infrastructure contributes over one third of Australia’s total greenhouse gas emissions.  

Australia also has world-class solar, wind and geothermal resources and good potential across a range of other renewable energy sources and emerging transport fuels. Changes in Australia’s energy mix can emerge quickly, with the most recent example being the rapid uptake of solar PV. Australia needs to take advantage of new technologies that can contribute to the reliable and affordable supply of energy. New energy sources and technologies can increase the flexibility and sustainability of the energy system, as well as help lower emissions and provide potential export opportunities. However, the cost competiveness of new technologies typically improves as production efficiencies evolve. Ongoing product improvements also typically follow product maturity. Prematurely forcing new technologies in the energy market through policy interventions runs the risk of early adoption coming at a higher cost and lower efficiency than if that product found its way into the market on a competitive basis. 

AEMO estimates that Australia has a major oversupply of electricity generation capacity (AEMO 2014). The largest proportion of our power is generated by coal-fired power stations, with around three quarters of these plants operating beyond their original design life. Some will require either costly refurbishment investment or decommissioning over the coming two decades (CPCU 2014) but AEMO estimates that new generation capacity is not needed before 2023–24. 

Policy frameworks that create barriers to exit and keep unprofitable generation supply in the market can have the effect of deterring investment in new, more efficient and lower emissions plants. Once these plants retire or electricity demand increases sufficiently, Australia will need investment in new generation assets. 

The energy market has proven to be a robust mechanism for driving efficient outcomes and is the appropriate mechanism to signal the timing of decommissioning of generation. Energy market rules have been developed to allow generators to enter and exit the market. Some stakeholders believe government should provide incentives for generator exit if it becomes clear that the normal forces of supply and demand are not sufficient to restore equilibrium. Others argue this is not government’s role as competition from emerging technologies is a normal business risk and generation owners make commercial decisions based on long-term expectations of rates of return. 

The Australian Government will maintain stable, predictable and technology-neutral policy settings 

The entry and exit of generation capacity should occur within the market framework established for the NEM 

The Australian Government will not be pursuing policies to “pay” for exit of surplus generation capacity 

The commercial availability of low emission technologies would support global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 

Figure 21: National Electricity Market capacity and demand 

The Australian Government will not be pursuing policies to “pay” for exit of surplus generation capacity. This could unfairly shift costs onto either consumers or taxpayers. The COAG Energy Council supported this position in December 2014. 

The low wholesale prices from oversupply and the amount of generation capacity temporarily mothballed without any permanent closure have implications for the future uptake of new technologies and sources. The Energy Council will consider whether there are any material non-market barriers to orderly exit and permanent closure. The regular assessment by AEMO of overall system reliability will determine whether retention of commercially marginal generation assets poses a risk to network reliability. 

Investment decisions on future generation assets, including choice of technology, are best made by industry, given its insights into market needs. The Australian Government will seek to maintain stable and predictable policy settings across the range of areas that affect such investment decisions, while taking a technology-neutral approach. 

Low emissions fossil fuel 

Electricity produced from fossil fuels, particularly coal, is expected to continue to play a vital role in providing low cost energy around the world until the cost of renewable power becomes more competitive (IEA 2014a). 

Investment support for low emissions technologies is important to Australia as a major user of coal-fired power and can aid international development efforts that help economic growth in developing countries by using coal and gas while limiting emissions. 

Industrial processes that rely on the combustion of fossil fuel are responsible for a significant proportion of Australia’s CO₂ emissions. If the CO₂ can be captured before it is released to the atmosphere it can either be utilised in other products or permanently stored in deep geological formations. Australia has worked closely with other countries which rely heavily on fossil fuels to investigate opportunities to utilise CO₂ in products such as carbonated drinks and plastics or to enhance the growth of oil-rich algae in solar bioreactors to produce biofuel. While these processes are promising, there is no commercial CO₂ re-use in Australia, largely reflecting the high cost of capturing the CO₂ from a flue gas stream. 

The Australian Government is providing over $1 billion toward the research, development and demonstration of renewable energy projects systems under the RET should not be changed; pressure on energy intensive trade exposed sectors should be reduced to provide support for Australian jobs; and the requirement to review the RET every two years should be removed to give much needed clarity to the renewable energy sector. This policy recognises the unanticipated reduction in electricity demand and strikes a balance between the ongoing development of renewable energy and disruption to electricity markets. 

In addition to the RET support for small- and large-scale renewables, the Australian Government is providing over $1 billion toward the research, development and demonstration of renewable energy projects. The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) was established as a statutory entity to make renewable energy solutions more affordable and increase the amount of renewable energy used in Australia. It has currently committed over $1 billion to more than 200 projects. The Clean Energy Finance Corporation invests in projects that use a commercial approach to overcoming market barriers and mobilising investment in renewable energy, energy efficiency and low emissions technologies. The Australian Government has announced that it will abolish these agencies, but maintain a commitment to existing projects. 

The development of cost-effective energy storage could bring about a paradigm change in the way Australia produces, transports and consumes energy. The most profound effect will be in renewable energy, as storage can help overcome current limitations of intermittency in generation. With Australia’s long, thin electricity grid and large share of remote power generators, Australia could benefit significantly from major advances in storage technologies. As affordable storage develops, it is important that Australia’s existing regulatory framework can accommodate this change. 

The Future Grid Forum work led by CSIRO and adopted by the Energy Council helps anticipate the potential challenges facing the sector and enables the ‘stress testing’ of regulatory impacts. The growth of disruptive technologies and advances in energy storage (including electric vehicles), combined with greater consumer engagement through demand response and self-generation, could have major implications for electricity markets. Networks may need to adapt from the generator-to-customer transport system of the past to acting more as trading platforms between distributed energy users and producers. 

Nuclear energy 

Nuclear energy technology continues to develop at both the large-scale plant level and through small modular reactors. The construction or operation of nuclear energy plants in Australia cannot be approved under either the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (the EPBC Act) or the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Act 1998 (the ARPANS Act). The safety standards for nuclear technology and the safety systems and regulation of nuclear power are continually improving. 

Some stakeholders are opposed to nuclear energy in Australia because it is costly in comparison to renewable technologies, requires significant amounts of water and brings with it the problem of disposing of radioactive waste. Other sections of the community support a local nuclear industry. They argue nuclear power provides adequate, affordable and reliable energy, in addition to having significant environmental benefits and public health advantages over other existing baseload technologies. They note it is a mature and innovative industrial sector globally, which has significantly improved safety and operational efficiency. 

Australia has regulations for the Lucas Heights research nuclear reactor in New South Wales and radioactive waste management. These regulations also cover the physical protection and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards on nuclear material, equipment and activities. The Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency (ARPANSA) regulates the safe and secure use of radiation sources by Australian Government entities. The Australian Safeguards and Non-proliferation Office (ASNO) regulates the physical protection and IAEA safeguards requirements on nuclear material, equipment and activities. The Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation is responsible for delivering specialised advice, scientific services and products to government, industry, academia and other research organisations. Ongoing investment in the nuclear regulatory framework and further development of Australia’s nuclear knowledge and skills will underpin future regulatory capability, if required. 

The Australian Government will consider the outcomes of the South Australian Royal Commission into its future involvement in the nuclear fuel cycle including the mining, enrichment, energy and storage phases for the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The Royal Commission will allow for a considered and informed community discussion on nuclear industries and energy, examining the opportunities and the risks²⁰ . 

Australia’s future transport energy mix 

Unlike electricity and gas, Australia is increasingly dependent on imported transport fuels. While developments in alternative fuel technologies continue, alternative fuels are not yet cost competitive. This is mainly because of the cost of converting vehicles, consumer appetite, and for renewable fuels, the cost and alternative use of inputs to produce the fuel as well as barriers to using supply chain infrastructure. So long as these issues remain, alternative fuels will not be able to gain significant market share in the transport fuels market. Consistent with approaches elsewhere in the energy sector, the Australian Government prefers to not intervene in a way that promotes one technology over another or forces technologies that are not cost competitive into the market at a cost to consumers or taxpayers. 

Alternative fuel sources for cars that are showing promise include hydrogen, the development of which could add value to Australia’s brown coal resources or use our abundant solar resources. Research continues to reduce the challenges to hydrogen becoming commercially viable as an alternative transport fuel. 

Research has also sought to advance alternative fuels for aviation; however, there are feedstock and infrastructure challenges. For example, in Australia there is not enough existing feedstock or refining infrastructure for a biofuel-powered airline industry. Despite these barriers, biofuels remain a transport fuel opportunity in Australia. 

Electric vehicles are commercially available in Australia and have the potential to be a more mainstream transport option. They have a number of advantages over conventional vehicles that can be realised if their upfront cost continues to come down and infrastructure (range) challenges can be overcome. Electric vehicles have lower running costs, environmental benefits and can assist with managing demand on the electricity system if consumers are provided with an incentive to charge outside of peak energy use times. Charging electric vehicles at off-peak times improves the utilisation of electricity infrastructure by increasing demand on the electricity grid at these times. Batteries in electric vehicles could also be used as a storage device to meet household demand or demand on the electricity grid through feeding back to the grid at peak times. 

The Australian Government’s preference is not to intervene in a way that promotes one technology or fuel source over another 

Energy White Paper Attachment 1 

ATTACHMENT 1 

Australian Government COAG Energy Council priorities for 2015 

The Australian Government is committed to driving timely COAG energy market reforms in 2015. The Australian Government has been working closely with states and territories and other stakeholders to reinvigorate and prioritise this reform agenda, including proposing focus areas that require action in 2015. 

1. Deliver reforms agreed by the Energy Council in December 2014 (www.scer.gov.au). This includes working closely with states and territories and the energy market institutions to clearly prioritise and provide clear timelines and accountabilities around these reforms. 
2. Reduce investor uncertainty, particularly for investors in electricity generation, as a priority. The Australian Government will not pursue policies to “pay” for exit of surplus generation capacity but will work closely on early introduction of wholesale market information and monitoring of reliability. The Australian Government will continue to place a high priority on work to bring responsible changes to the RET to deliver that certainty. 
3. Deliver by the end of 2015, concrete steps for the Energy Council and industry to roll out network tariff reform, and complete important strategy work about necessary changes to network regulation due to changing network business models. To ensure the current regulatory provisions are flexible and robust in light of emerging opportunities, new technologies, potentially changing customer expectations and declining demand, the Australian Government will respond to the outcomes of the Council’s current ‘scenario testing’ of regulatory provisions to deliver regulation as an enabler and not a barrier to network change. 
4. Lower the regulatory burden for energy businesses and market participants by continuing to advocate for consistent national laws. This will focus on seeking commitment to clear timelines for implementation of the National Electricity Customer Framework, and progressing a review of options to better harmonise national energy laws and lower costs of businesses operating across jurisdictions. 
5. Increase opportunities for households and businesses to take control of their energy costs, by seeking agreement, by the end of 2015, to consistent national approaches to the way consumers interact with energy markets, and improve tools for empowering and engaging consumers in relation to their energy use and costs. 
6. Build off the analysis of the Eastern Australian Domestic Gas Market Study to deliver the vision agreed with the Energy Council for gas markets. In particular, accelerate the development of a more liquid wholesale gas market, through supporting targeted analysis, by the AEMC by the end of 2015, of refinements to the trading hubs which could enhance price discovery and risk management. The Australian Government will also lead the development of a plan to reduce impediments to responsible development of gas supply, leveraging off our science and research base to better coordinate and inform stakeholders on the development of the industry.

7. Drive improvements to energy market governance by providing secretariat and support services to enable the independent COAG Review of Governance Arrangements for Energy Markets to be completed before the end of the year. The Australian Government will also respond to the outcomes of the independent review of competition policy as they may apply to the energy regulatory governance arrangements. 

8. Lead work with the states and territories through the Energy Council to develop the Council’s national energy productivity framework in a way which is complementary to the Australian Government’s National Energy Productivity Plan. Agreement to the policy framework and the role of states and territories will be sought at the mid-2015 Energy Council meeting, with adoption of the Energy Council’s framework for energy productivity including proposed measures at the end 2015 meeting.  

9. Provide world class geoscience information as an essential element to attract commercial exploration. Improving Australia’s mineral and energy resources knowledge base through the work of Geoscience Australia and counterpart state and territory geoscience agencies is a priority. This will include reducing barriers to investment in exploration by implementing the recommendations of the Productivity Commission’s Report into Mineral and Energy Exploration. 

10. Identify opportunities to enhance use of non-proprietary information through greater public access and eliminating duplicative survey and collection effort. Resources exploration and development generates a wealth of information on Australia’s mineral and energy resources natural environment, our cultural and social heritage and on health and safety outcomes. These improvements could significantly reduce costs for business while also improving the quality of public understanding and debate, building on the strong reputation of independent data providers such as the CSIRO. 

11. Tackle unnecessary approvals processes by identifying further opportunities to streamline or remove unnecessary regulation that impedes mineral and energy resources development, including greater use of strategic/regional assessments; pursuing nationally consistent offshore regulatory frameworks; and identifying opportunities to collaborate on approaches to implementing mine safety regulatory requirements to improve consistency. 

12. Ensure regulatory and policy frameworks and baseline information supports development of new mineral and energy resources opportunities, particularly natural gas from tight and shale rock formations, less common minerals and rare earths. 

13. Proactively improve community engagement and understanding of the mineral and energy resources sector. This includes sharing leading practice approaches and case studies to improve community engagement and facilitating coexistence of resources development and other land uses in regions with strong resources potential. 

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The Commonwealth of Australia 2014a, Budget Paper No. 2, Budget Measures 2014–15, Canberra 

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US Energy Information Administration 2015, Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)