Hong Kong 2030: Planning Vision and Strategy

1.          INTRODUCTION

Background

1.1                     Strategic planning in Hong Kong has come a long way since the formulation of the Hong Kong Outline Plan in the early 1970s. The first Territorial Development Strategy (TDS) was produced in 1984 to establish a broad land use- transport framework to guide the physical development of Hong Kong into the 1990s. Although it had been updated twice in 1986 and 1988 to take account of changing circumstances, it was not until 1990 that a comprehensive review of the TDS was commenced. The technical work of the TDS Review was completed in late 1996 and after some extensive public consultation, the Final Report was endorsed by the Executive Council on 24.2.1998.

1.2                     Since the publication of the TDS Review Final Report in February 1998, a number of issues having implications on the long-term development of Hong Kong have surfaced, such as the financial turmoil in Asia, the potential increase of migrants from the Mainland and China's imminent accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), etc. As a result, a further review of the TDS is required.

1.3                     We propose to call the updated physical development framework 'Hong Kong 2030 : Planning Vision and Strategy', or 'HK 2030' in short.

Primary Purpose

1.4                     This further review exercise will gather the necessary information, generate scenarios relating to the future development of Hong Kong, and undertake the testing of development options with a view to preparing HK 2030 which will be:

"A long-term land use-transport-environmental planning strategy for guiding future developments and the provision of strategic infrastructure in Hong Kong and to help implement Government policy targets in a spatial form."

Previous Round of TDS Review

1.5                     The last review of the TDS established a strategic planning framework to enable Hong Kong to become a better place to live and work, and to continue to grow as a regional transport hub and an international city. Our economic relationships with the Mainland and the implications of development in Guangdong Province were taken into account in the review.

1.6                     Two scenarios based on the extent of Hong Kong's economic hinterland were developed with a population of 7.5 million and 8.1 million by 2011 respectively. Both of them were essentially trend-based with similar economic and social assumptions, and it was assumed that the provision of key economic infrastructure would generally be demand-led. A medium-term strategy for the period up to year 2006 and a long-term strategy up to 2011 were recommended.

Need for Further Review

1.7                     Since the completion of the technical work in late 1996, the following issues have emerged which require a prompt review of the previous recommendations.

Population Assumptions

1.8                     As mentioned in para. 1.6 above, the last review assumed two population scenarios, i.e. 7.5 million and 8.1 million by 2011 for Scenarios A and B respectively. Scenario A was subsequently proved to be too conservative by the publication of the 1996 By-Census Based Population Forecasts. As for Scenario B, we need to re-visit the various assumptions in the light of the residency and mobility patterns of Hong Kong residents.

1.9                     On the other hand, with the reunification of Hong Kong with the Mainland and the rapid development of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, it is possible that more Hong Kong residents will take advantage of the ease in crossing the boundary to reside, either temporarily or permanently, on the Mainland side. This possibility could have significant implications on the planning for housing production and the provision of other facilities.

New Vision for Hong Kong

1.10                 In his Policy Addresses of 1998 and 1999, the Chief Executive (CE) promulgated his new vision for Hong Kong, i.e. Hong Kong should not only be a major Chinese city but could become the most cosmopolitan city in Asia, enjoying a status comparable to that of New York in North America and London in Europe. With a view to facilitating the realisation of this vision, we need to update the TDS in terms of translating the vision into planning objectives and proposing physical planning measures to help meeting those objectives.

1.11                 In addition, the TDS will also need to be updated to take account of the work of the Commission on Strategic Development (CSD). CSD was set up in early 1998 to advise the CE on a wide range of subjects having implications on the long term development of Hong Kong. A consultancy study was subsequently commissioned, inter alia, to examine Hong Kong's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats and to recommend a strategic framework to ensure that Hong Kong's planning and development will keep pace with trends and development in the Mainland, the Asian region and the world, and that the vitality of Hong Kong's development as well as our competitiveness will be maintained.

1.12                 On 21.2.2000, the CSD published a document which provides an overview of the key issues that will impact on Hong Kong's long term aspiration and an outline of initiatives that need to be pursued for realising Hong Kong's long term development objectives. The planning dimensions under the four strategic themes, namely strengthening links with Mainland, enhancing Hong Kong's competitiveness, improving quality of life and reinforcing identity and image, will be considered in HK 2030.

1.13                 Furthermore, Government has committed to facilitate the early development of high-technology industries (e.g. the cyberport proposal) and an international theme park in Northeast Lantau. In this regard, we need to update the TDS to complement these new policies.

Changes in Economic Circumstances

1.14                 Over the past three decades, Hong Kong has transformed from an export-oriented and industrial-based economy to one which is predominantly service sector oriented. Due to a combination of factors which is extensively documented elsewhere, a major portion of our manufacturing industries, mainly the lower order labour intensive activities, have been relocated to the Mainland, particularly to the PRD region. On the other hand, Hong Kong has emerged as an international and regional financial centre, a major trading centre as well as the busiest container port in the world.

1.15                 The recent financial turmoil in Asia has demonstrated the vulnerability of an economy based heavily on finance and service activities. There are calls from different sectors of the community for widening our economic base.

1.16                 In response, Government has initiated investigations through various channels, such as the Commission on Innovation and Technology, to explore means to strengthen our economic structure including the promotion of high value-added and high technology industries and tourism development. The cyberport and international theme park proposals are good examples of Government's efforts in this direction. We need to assess how strategic planning can assist in the widening of our economic base.

1.17                 The Asian financial crisis has also caused Hong Kong a decrease of about 5.1% in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 1998, a record high unemployment rate of about 6.0% as at February 1999 and a smaller port cargo growth than earlier forecast. The crisis may have other more sustained impacts on our economy. These consequences warrant a re-appraisal of our previous TDS Review strategies which were mainly based on trends of past economic growth.

1.18                 We also need to study the implications of China's imminent joining of the WTO. According to Government Economist's preliminary assessment, the progressive integration of China into the world economy will have significant global ramifications for China and the rest of the world. As the Mainland economy transforms into a more liberalised and transparent regime, the Hong Kong economy will be able to benefit from reduced transaction cost and expanded trade potentials. It is expected that greater business opportunities, notably in the distributive trades, banking, finance, telecommunications and tourism sectors, will be available. However, it is also envisaged that there would be more intensive competition in the Mainland market. To turn challenges into opportunities, it is recommended that Hong Kong should position itself, identify its niche, enhance its infrastructure and sharpen the capability of its workforces so as to sustain and expand its gateway and hubs function for the Mainland.

Cross-Boundary Interactions

1.19                 The socio-economic linkages between Hong Kong and the Mainland have contributed to the dramatic growth of cross-boundary movements of goods and people. According to the Immigration Department's statistics, the number

of cross-boundary passengers grew tremendously over the past few years. In 1999, some 4.5 million Hong Kong residents, almost three in every five residents, had travelled at least once across the boundary to the Mainland. They together made a total of 97.1 millions trips for various purposes. It is noted that the average annual growth rates of passenger departures and arrivals to and from the Mainland were respectively about 10% between 1992 and 1999.

1.20                 To facilitate further interaction of economic and social activities, consideration has been given to the provision of additional cross-boundary links (e.g. Lok Ma Chau/Sheung Shui Spur Line and Crosslink projects). Various suggestions to enhance these activities have also been made by different sectors of the community. We need to explore the potential for intensifying our relationships with the Mainland, in particular with neighbouring areas. The closer socio-economic interactions and the trend for further intensification of such linkages warrant a re-visit of the various scenarios developed in the previous TDS.

Emerging Sectoral Studies

1.21                 Recently, a number of strategic planning studies conducted by various Government Departments including the Second Railway Development Study (RDS-2), Third Comprehensive Transport Study (CTS-3), Urban Renewal Strategy Study have been completed. On the other hand, a number of sub-regional planning studies relating to NWNT, NENT, SENT, SWNT and the Metro Area are being conducted by Planning Department and will be completed in the near future. An updating of the TDS will be required to reflect and integrate their findings and recommendations.

Location of Port Facilities

1.22                 The Third Port Development Strategy Review (PDSR) released in late 1998 indicated the need to re-appraise the programme for various port facilities to take account of possible enhancement in the productivity of existing container terminals in Hong Kong as well as competition from the growing port facilities across the boundary, particularly in Shenzhen.

1.23                 In addition, the Third PDSR has also revealed the potential of Tuen Mun West as an alternative location for port facilities to take advantage of the proposed Tonggu Waterway, subject to detailed feasibility study.

1.24                 In view of the economic downturn in the region due to the Asian financial crisis and the international theme park proposal for Northeast Lantau as mentioned in para. 1.13 above, there is a need to re-consider the location for future container terminals and other port facilities.

Locations for Strategic Growth

1.25                 There is a popular request to reduce the extent of the proposed Strategic Growth Areas (SGAs) at Central and Wanchai Reclamation, South East Kowloon Reclamation and Green Island Reclamation recommended by the TDS Review. On the other hand, the commitment for new railway projects such as the West Rail, has opened up new development opportunities in the New Territories. Apart from developments in the New Territories, a more vigorous strategy is being considered for urban renewal in the Metro Area.

1.26                 The extent of land requirements and feasibility of the proposed SGAs in northern New Territories as recommended in the last TDS Review are currently being examined in the context of two sub-regional planning and engineering feasibility studies. How much land in these SGAs could be developed further to accommodate extra population remains to be investigated.

Application of Sustainable Development Concept

1.27                 As the development framework proposed by TDS Review is mainly demand-led, there are concerns on whether we can cope with the population growth and economic pressures in the years to come. It is recognised that the sustainable development concept should be adopted as a basic planning principle to strike a balance between the economic, social and environmental needs of Hong Kong. In this regard, the recently completed study on "Sustainable Development for Hong Kong in the 21st Century" (SUSDEV21) has recommended planning tools for evaluating the sustainability of development options.

Lessons Learnt

1.28                 The last review of the TDS has provided us with invaluable experience which we will take on board in formulating our

approach for the next review. The lessons from the last review can be summarised as follows:

(a)          One of the main difficulties encountered in the last review was in forecasting future population levels. As mentioned in para. 1.8 above, two population scenarios were prepared but they were quickly found to be either invalid or too fluid. The greatest uncertainty lies in the migration factor i.e. the level of immigrants from the Mainland, the number of 'returnees' from as well as emigrants to overseas countries. There are suggestions that we should increase the flexibility of our strategic plan by providing a broader range of scenarios for the future population, and that some of the population scenarios should be constructed on 'bolder' assumptions.

(b)          The last review had a time-frame of 20 years (i.e. from 1991 to 2011) which effectively became 15 when the review was completed in 1996. Such a time-frame is considered too short and inflexible having regard to the long lead time required to plan and implement strategic planning proposals. We need to adopt a longer time-frame for the coming review.

(c)          The last review took more than six years to complete. The review process is generally regarded as unduly elaborate. Some of the assumptions used were already out-dated by the time the review was completed. We need to adopt a shorter period for this round of review.

(d)          The last review was essentially trend-based and demand-led, and the strategies recommended were very much 'one-way'. Such an approach has been considered as not flexible enough to respond to rapidly changing circumstances. In view of the planning uncertainties over the long-term and to provide the necessary flexibility, many have suggested a 'development scenarios' approach, and the need to also formulate 'response plans' to cater for changing circumstances which are beyond our expectation or control, such as the impact of the financial crisis, the impact of technology on business and lifestyles.

(e)           As a result of Hong Kong's reunification with the Mainland, many have suggested there should be more emphasis on our relationship with the Mainland. Understanding the implications of cross- boundary movements of population and goods and the socio-economic development trends in the Mainland, particularly in Guangdong Province, on Hong Kong would be crucial for our future development.

(f)             Although three rounds of extensive consultation were undertaken for the last review, it appears that the public was still not too satisfied with the public consultation aspect. In view of the importance and significance of HK 2030, we need to undertake more extensive and proactive public consultation for the next review exercise.

2.          A NEW APPROACH

2.1                     Learning from previous experience, we propose to employ a different approach to prepare HK 2030. The key elements of the new approach are described in the following paragraphs.

Vision and Planning Objectives

2.2                     Para. 1.10 above mentions CE's new vision that Hong Kong should not only be a major Chinese city but the most cosmopolitan city in Asia enjoying a status comparable to that of New York in North America and London in Europe. CE's vision should be adopted and served as the starting point for reviewing the TDS. We will examine what attributes are essential to give Hong Kong the status embodied in the vision. We will translate those attributes into key planning objectives and will examine what physical planning measures need to be put in place to help achieve the planning objectives.

2.3                     The formulation of corresponding planning objectives will also serve as a platform for public discussion as to whether the planning objectives would meet their expectations and aspirations for the future development of Hong Kong. Through extensive public consultation, we hope to be able to achieve some degree of community consensus on the broad directions for our future development to guide the review exercise.

2.4                     In addition, we propose to also promulgate our vision for the five sub-regions in Hong Kong for public consultation. We have initially prepared our vision based on the physical characteristics and current functions. We have also proposed some preliminary ideas relating to their future strategic roles. They are nevertheless subject to public comments and suggestions.

Policy Directions

2.5                     In addition to promulgating his new vision for Hong Kong, the CE has also set out in his recent Policy Addresses some broad directions in various policy areas. In preparing HK 2030, we will examine these policy directions and, where relevant, translate them into strategic planning requirements and propose land reservation and provision of appropriate facilities to help achieve the policy directives and policies initiated by Bureaux and Departments.

2.6                     We will also take account of the results of the CSD's study and consider, in particular, the following:

(a)           What extent can planning policies help to realise Hong Kong's long-term vision and whether existing planning policies are facilitating or hindering in this pursuit;

(b)           What role of planning and the planning process can play to pursue the four strategic themes in the CSD's document; and

(c)          What role can planning play in respect of the seven key sectors and areas identified to be crucial in achieving Hong Kong's long-term goals.

A Longer Planning Horizon

2.7                     Having considered the time-frame required to plan and implement strategic development and related infrastructure proposals and balanced against such factors as availability and reliability of data, we propose to adopt a planning horizon of 30 years (i.e. up to year 2030) for this round of review. A further reason to adopt a 30-year planning period is to tie in with CSD's broad strategies for the next 30 years. A longer time-frame than this could reduce the reliability, practicability and usefulness of the planning strategy.

2.8                     Within the planning horizon, we propose to adopt different time scales for which to develop proposals with different degrees of details. For the short-term, that is for the first 10 years, we will recommend more definite proposals; whilst for the medium and long term, that is from the 11th to 30th year and beyond, more broad-brush proposals will be formulated.

A Shorter Study Period

2.9                     We propose the preparation of HK 2030 should be completed in 18 months exclusive of public consultation.

A More Focused Approach

2.10                 In order that HK 2030 could be completed within a much shorter time-frame, it would need to focus on key planning issues. For those strategic planning issues which have already been the subject of separate studies, we will consolidate the findings, with updating where appropriate, for inputting into HK 2030.

Linkages with the Mainland

2.11                 Economically, Hong Kong and the PRD region is one single entity. In formulating HK 2030, we will study Hong Kong in the wider regional perspective in terms of our role and functions vis-a-vis other cities in the region, as well as the strategic functions that Hong Kong should and can perform in the region's further development.

2.12                 In addition to the economic relationship, we will also examine the implications of increasing social interactions between Hong Kong and the PRD region including such issues as the provision of housing, pattern of cross- boundary travels, trends of Hong Kong people residing and/or working in the Mainland, tourism and recreational developments in the Mainland serving citizens of and visitors to Hong Kong, etc.

2.13                 We will also study the interface between physical planning in Hong Kong and Shenzhen. The interaction of the Comprehensive Master Plan for Shenzhen, strategic transport links (road and rail) of the wider PRD region and the development in the territory would be assessed. Also, the implications of the regional development and its consequential regional environmental impacts on Hong Kong's environment will be examined. Such environmental implications would need to be considered in formulating a strategy which could provide a good quality environment in Hong Kong.

A More Flexible and Responsive Strategy

2.14                 Scenario building is a useful technique to address planning uncertainties and is extensively used in long term strategic planning. We propose to adopt this approach, postulate different scenarios for the future and prepare options of development that would meet the needs of the scenarios. A strategy formulated on the basis of this approach should be more flexible and responsive.

2.15                 We also intend to prepare 'Response Plans' or 'What-if Plans' to cater for more drastic changes to external and internal uncertainties which are beyond our expectation or control and/or major shifts in population, environmental and socio-economic conditions. The incorporation of 'Response Plans' as part of HK 2030 will make it more adaptive to changes in population, environmental and socio-economic circumstances.

Monitoring and Review

2.16                 Continuous monitoring and regular review of HK 2030 is required in order that prompt and timely adjustments are made in response to changing circumstances. We will recommend a monitoring and review mechanism and will study the practicability and application of the 'Trigger Point' concept.

More Public Involvement

2.17                 Based on the experience of the last review, involving the public at the early stage of the review process is critical in ensuring public acceptance of HK 2030. To enhance public awareness and to promote ownership of the review exercise, we will conduct extensive consultations with stakeholder groups and members of the general public throughout the entire review process.

2.18                 Apart from pursuing a more vigorous and proactive public consultation strategy, we also propose to establish a panel of expert advisors to provide a channel for drawing the knowledge and advice of experts in various fields.

Balancing Demand for and Supply of Environmental Resources

2.19                 Providing a good quality environment is a fundamental building block to enable Hong Kong becoming a world class city. We need to establish the required environmental targets in order to achieve a good quality environment. Given the environmental problems identified in the last TDS Review, it should be time to spend more efforts on assessing our environmental capital, or budget for use as a basis, among other factors, for deriving development options.

2.20                 Besides setting the targets, as there is increasing demand for environmental resources and their supply is not unlimited, we will also need to know our environmental carrying capacity and the demand that would be generated from the future developments.

2.21                 Apart from the developments in Hong Kong, regional development in PRD also influences Hong Kong's environmental conditions. The recent and potential future developments in the PRD would provide some hints on the environmental issues to which we should pay attention.

3.          VISION AND PLANNING OBJECTIVES

Our Vision for Hong Kong

3.1                     We shall adopt the CE's vision to guide the preparation of HK 2030, as follows :

"Hong Kong should not only be a major Chinese city but the most cosmopolitan city in Asia, enjoying a status comparable to that of New York in North America and London in Europe."

3.2                     This vision reflects the goals set for Hong Kong in CSD's consultancy study, which have been formulated with regard to our current achievements, our own strengths and potential as well as the major trends and driving forces that may affect Hong Kong in the next 30 years.

3.3                     Through the public consultation process, we hope to share with the public their ideas and views on how to achieve this vision. The ideas and views raised by the public would also help define more specific planning objectives to guide the generation and evaluation of planning strategies.

Planning Objectives

3.4                     In order that we can chart our course and work towards the vision, we need to critically consider the key elements, or components, required to make Hong Kong a leading city in the world, Asia's most cosmopolitan city, a major city in China and an innovation and technology centre. These key components would then be translated into planning objectives for HK 2030.

3.5                     To help realise our vision for Hong Kong, we have initially identified the following planning objectives:

(a)          Adhering to the principle of sustainable development;

(b)          Enhancing Hong Kong's hub functions and providing sufficient land reserve to meet the changing needs of the economy;

(c)          Providing a good quality living environment by conserving natural landscape, preserving cultural heritage, enhancing townscape and regenerating old urban areas;

(d)          Meeting the need for housing and community facilities;

(e)          Providing a framework to develop a safe, efficient, economically viable and environmentally friendly transport system as well as pedestrian facilities;

(f)            Promoting tourism; and

(g)          Strengthening links with the Mainland.

Adhering to the Principle of Sustainable Development

3.6                     In both of his Policy Addresses of 1999 and 2000, the CE has stressed the importance of enhancing the quality of our living environment to achieve our vision of building Hong Kong into a world-class city. The key to building a quality living environment is to formulate development strategies based on the principle of sustainable development which requires that we balance social, economic and environmental needs so that a vibrant economy, social progress and better environmental quality can be achieved simultaneously. In this connection, we will, inter alia, apply the evaluation tool, i.e. the CASET, developed in the SUSDEV21 Study, in the strategy formulation process in order to obtain as far as possible an optimum balance between the three factors for the recommended strategies.

Enhancing Our Hub Functions and Providing Sufficient Land Reserve to Meet the Changing Needs of the Economy

3.7                     Today, Hong Kong is one of the world's most vibrant economic success stories. To achieve the status as one of the

leading cities in the world, we need to strengthen and promote Hong Kong's hub functions, especially in relation to its role as:-

(a)          a global and regional financial and business centre;

(b)          a regional centre for multinational corporations;

(c)         a trading entrepot for South China;

(d)          an international and regional centre for sea and air transport;

(e)          a major destination for tourists;

(f)            an innovation and technology centre for South China;

(g)          a regional broadcasting, telecommunications and internet hub; and

(h)          the Asian centre of arts and culture, and of entertainment and sporting events.

3.8                     Through enhancing our hub functions and capitalising on our strengths such as our strong position in relation to conducting business in the Mainland; the flexibility, resilience and entrepreneurship of our people; and the cosmopolitan characteristics of Hong Kong, our aim is to increase the competitiveness of Hong Kong and to maintain its position as an international financial and trading centre.

3.9                     As Hong Kong is undergoing further economic restructuring, there is also a need to widen our economic base through the development of the high-technology sector, high value-added industries and other economic activities with which we have advantages. In this regard, the Commission on Innovation and Technology recommended that in order to realise the potential of Hong Kong to become an innovation and technology centre for South China and the region, we need to position ourselves to be a leading city in the world for the development and application of information technology, a world class design and fashion centre, a regional centre for multimedia-based information and entertainment services, a world centre for the development of health food and pharmaceuticals based on Chinese medicine, a leading international supplier of high valued-added products, a regional centre for supplying professional and technological talents and services; and the market place for technology transfer between the Mainland and the rest of the world. We should ensure the physical planning framework would facilitate the development of these new economic activities to create new job opportunities.

Providing a Good Quality Living Environment

3.10                 Other than maintaining an annual GDP per capita well over many OECD countries, Hong Kong also needs a world class environment. We need to maintain a quality living environment and a safe, reliable and efficient transport system not only for the present and future generations to enjoy but also to attract investments and talents from around the world.

3.11                  A quality environment means that we should be able to breathe in clean air, swim in non-polluted water and enjoy a quiet, green and clean environment. We will need to maintain and expand, where appropriate, the country and marine parks and enhance our ecological resources.

(i)       Conserving Natural Landscape

3.12                  About three-quarter of our total land area is countryside. The natural environment does not only act as the 'green lung' for Hong Kong, it also provides recreational, educational and eco-tourism opportunities. However, due to the growing population and ever expanding economic activities, our countryside is under extreme pressure. To ensure that both the present and the future generations could continue to enjoy the significant landscape and ecological attributes, we need to conserve and enhance our natural environment by protecting existing conservation areas and heritage features, by identifying new areas for such conservation and by compensating for areas which merit conservation but are inevitably lost to essential development projects. As such, 'no-go' areas should be identified and conserved properly.

(ii)        Preserving Cultural Heritage and Enhancing Townscape

3.13                 To be a leading international city, the most cosmopolitan city in Asia and a major city in China, Hong Kong needs a townscape that is as attractive as other major international cities, if not more. A Harbour Plan and a set of Urban Design Guidelines currently being developed would be incorporated as part of the Strategy.

3.14                 New development areas should be planned and built with creative design and high landscape standards. In the process of restructuring our Metro Area, we should ensure a beautiful and well designed city centre that is attractive to major international and regional companies.

3.15                 Heritage buildings and landmarks which form part of our living environment, also contribute to an attractive townscape. They should be preserved to provide a variety of building designs, to sustain memories of the past and to foster a sense of belonging and identity for the community.

3.16                 To enhance our townscape, developers and owners of buildings should be encouraged to adopt innovative architectural and building designs.

3.17                  A good natural background or backdrop to these high quality designed buildings should be maintained. Clear ridgelines on both sides of the harbour should be preserved and a beautifully designed and publicly accessible harbour frontage should be provided in an attractive townscape setting.

(iii)         Regenerating Old Urban Areas

3.18                 Planning the future should not only be about new developments but also about improving the existing building fabric. The pace of private redevelopment is unlikely to maintain its momentum as in the last three decades when most old low-rise buildings have been demolished for redevelopment. Mainly due to the problems of financial viability and multiple ownership, a large number of dilapidated areas in need of urban renewal still remain untouched. In his Policy Address of 1999, the CE highlighted the increasing need for urban renewal approach to bring real improvement to the living conditions of the residents in dilapidated buildings in old and run-down areas. In this connection, the urban renewal process should be speeded up so that the older urban areas will be suitably re-structured and living environment improved. A wider rehabilitation effort to remove the urban decay should also be examined.

Meeting the Need for Housing and Community Facilities

3.19                 No city could survive without meeting its own people's need for adequate and affordable housing and adequate community facilities. To this end, adequate land and infrastructure for the development of self-contained and comfortable housing units and community facilities meeting the rising aspirations of the people should be ensured. To become an international city we also need to provide a stock of quality housing with a diversity of housing types for foreign investors and talents coming to work and live in Hong Kong.

3.20                 We should learn from our past new town experience and experience elsewhere to ensure that new strategic growth areas will provide a high standard living environment with good urban design, clear segregation of road and pedestrian traffic, as well as well-planned open spaces for use by people. They should also be serviced by efficient and environmentally friendly transportation systems, and be provided with sufficient and convenient community and leisure facilities.

Providing a Framework to develop a Safe, Efficient, Economically Viable and Environmentally Friendly Transport System as well as Pedestrian Facilities

3.21                 We should aim at providing environmentally friendly rapid mass transit systems which will provide efficient and comfortable services for the commuters, and generate less noise and air pollution to nearby residential areas. Sunken, semi-submerged, decked-over and submerged roads should be built wherever appropriate. Within the town, people should be able to travel in environmentally friendly mode of transportation such as electric trolley buses, people's movers, or travellators that are well-connected to conveniently located transport interchanges for mass transportation systems. There should also be more use of pedestrian zones and walkways. The use of new technologies and techniques which could improve the environmental performance of individual transport mode and/or the transport system and pedestrian facilities as a whole will be considered and incorporated into the strategy.

3.22                 HK 2030 should also aim to reduce the amount of travelling through rationalising the location of residential areas and job centres.

Promoting Tourism

3.23                 Hong Kong has often been referred to as 'the Pearl of the Orient', a major tourist destination in the Asia-Pacific region.

3.24                 There should be high quality tourist attractions to ensure Hong Kong will continue to be a major tourist centre. These new tourist attractions should include the countryside and nature trails, modern theme parks, attractions associated with the film industry, cultural venues, heritage sites and newly developed tourist and recreational facilities along the harbour front.

Strengthening Links with the Mainland

3.25                 With increasing movement of people across the boundary and the rapid development in Shenzhen and the PRD region, close liaison with the relevant planning authorities in the Mainland through established channels is necessary. Strategic planning for Hong Kong would need to take account of the development trends and potentials of the PRD region and facilitate mutual enhancement in the development process.

Functions of the Five Sub-Regions

3.26                 To facilitate the identification of development opportunities to help achieve the planning objectives, we have consolidated the current functions of the five sub-regions in Hong Kong based on their physical characteristics and current state of development, and have laid out some preliminary ideas on how to proceed with their planning.

3.27                 The presentation of the current functions of the five sub-regions and preliminary planning ideas could also serve the purpose of inviting public comments and views on their expectations and aspirations for the future roles of the sub- regions and the relevance of those ideas.

3.28                 The current functions and preliminary planning ideas will not pre-empt the further work on HK 2030. Subject to any suggestions and views to be obtained from public consultation, we will critically examine how the current functions could be enhanced and the scope for accommodating new functions.

Metro Area - The Pulse of Hong Kong

3.29                 The Metro Area has acted as 'the pulse of Hong Kong' where key economic and financial activities take place. It is also the home for over 4 million people, and provides about 80% of all job opportunities. Most of this sub-region has already been developed but there are still some new opportunities, for example, in South East Kowloon, Tsuen Wan and the western and southern parts of Hong Kong Island.

3.30                 To enhance and strengthen the hub functions, the business district along the northern shore of Hong Kong Island and the southern part of Kowloon peninsula should continue to be the main economic activity centre of Hong Kong. The cosmopolitan character and international image of the business district should be maintained and enhanced.

3.31                 Victoria Harbour presents great potential for creativity. We should create new leisure and business facilities (open-air cafe, retail facilities, etc.), provide for new marine-related activities (marina for pleasure crafts, cruise terminal, etc.) and develop new landmarks (a fisherman's wharf?). The objective is to bring the people to the harbour and the harbour to the people and improve the attractiveness of the city for both residents and visitors.

3.32                 New ideas for enhancing the townscape to complement Hong Kong's role as a major international city through innovative building and urban design should be explored. Heritage buildings should be preserved to provide variety and respect for our past. Civic squares and park areas should be provided to act as urban green lungs to give workers, residents and tourists breathing spaces and for public amenity.

South West New Territories - A Tourist, Recreation and Leisure Centre

3.33                 This sub-region has many beautiful islands and country parks. Taking advantage of the beautiful scenery and with the provision of environmentally friendly and efficient transport infrastructure, Lantau presents enormous potential for enabling modern living in well-planned new towns (i.e. Tung Chung and Tai Ho), and world-class recreational facilities including international theme parks, a cable car system and an aquatic centre, etc.

3.34                 The southern part of Lantau should be conserved as Country Parks to capitalise on its natural beauties. South Lantau should remain as an area of beautiful beaches and sensitivity-designed resort developments.

3.35                 The international airport at Chek Lap Kok should perform as an international air transport hub of South China.

South East New Territories - Leisure Garden of Hong Kong

3.36                 With the natural beauties in Sai Kung and Port Shelter, this sub-region offers great potential for recreational and leisure attractions. In planning this sub-region, we should conserve the beautiful countryside and explore opportunities for compatible recreational uses. Innovative and creative recreational proposals which could co-exist in harmony with the natural landscape should be explored.

3.37                 On the other hand, Tseung Kwan O should remain as a strategic growth area to provide additional land for residential development to meet the housing needs.

North West New Territories - Gateway to Pearl River Delta

3.38                 This sub-region has been subject to intense development pressure and, as a consequence, large tracts of agricultural land and fish ponds have been converted for housing, open storage and port-back up uses. With the development of the West Rail, new cross-boundary links, and a possible container port in Tuen Mun West, its role and appearance will change dramatically. Taking advantage of the construction of the West Rail, this sub-region should become one of the main sources of land for new strategic growth.

3.39                 Whilst this region will perform an increasingly important role as the gateway to the Pearl River Delta region and as a main source of housing supply, developments will have to be managed carefully to protect the natural environment, especially the internationally important wetlands around Mai Po.

North East New Territories - the Technology Hub

3.40                 Apart from the existing new towns in Shatin, Tai Po and Fanling/Sheung Shui, a substantial part of this sub-region remains rural in character and is relatively unspoiled and unpolluted. To meet the housing needs, a new strategic growth area has been identified in Kwu Tung. We should explore further opportunities for housing development to meet the housing needs.

3.41                 Apart from providing land for housing, this sub-region also has the potential to become a technology hub of Hong Kong. A technology hub could be developed along the KCR East Rail, linking up the two polytechnic universities in Kowloon, the Hong Kong Technology Centre in Kowloon Tong, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, the proposed Science Park in Pak Shek Kok and the Industrial Estate in Tai Po. The development of this 'technology hub' should contribute to strengthening and promoting Hong Kong as a regional base for high-technology and high value-added activities.

4.          KEY STRATEGIC PLANNING ISSUES

4.1                     In the process of preparing HK 2030, a full range of sectoral planning issues such as housing, office/commercial, industry, conservation, tourism, etc. would be examined. For each of these land use categories, we will study their current development patterns, 'baseline' supply and demand conditions, future development trends and land requirements, major problems and issues as well as the inter-relationships amongst the planning issues. The main purpose is to review, analyse and bring together these planning issues to provide 'building blocks' for the formulation of scenarios and development options.

4.2                     Many of these sectoral planning issues were, or are being, examined either in the context of the previous TDS or in other planning studies for which we will not duplicate the work again. Instead, we will update the previous findings and take the findings from on-going studies for inputting into HK 2030. Related planning issues which have been or are the subject of previous and on-going studies are listed in Appendix A.

4.3                     In order that the review exercise could be more focused, we will concentrate our efforts in examining the more fundamental strategic planning issues which have emerged since the last review. Subject to any further suggestions from within the Government and the public consultation exercise to be conducted, we propose to focus our resources on studying the following issues:

(a)          Population Forecast and Housing Land Requirements;

(b)          New Development Opportunities;

(c)         Socio-economic Integration with the Mainland;

(d)          Environmental Considerations and Conservation;

(e)          Tourist Attractions and Heritage Preservation;

(f)            Development of Information Technology and its Implications on Land Use; and

(g)          Requirements of Port and other Major Infrastructure Facilities.

Population Forecast and Housing Land Requirements

4.4                     We will, in liaison with concerned Bureaux and Departments, postulate different population scenarios for intervening time-scales up to Year 2030. In addition, we will assess the implications on our future population levels of the latest development relating to children of Hong Kong residents born in the Mainland and consider the relevance of a suggestion to set a population target, such as 10 million or higher, based on which to plan the land and infrastructure requirements.

4.5                     From the scenarios of population growth, we will assess the requirements for housing land. We will adopt the Housing Demand Model in the assessment and will conduct sensitivity tests on variations to the model parameters to produce robust recommendations.

4.6                     In addition, we will also take account of the projected age profile and assess the ageing problem of the population.

New Development Opportunities

4.7                     This will include an extensive search for all possible development opportunities, particularly in the New Territories and an assessment of their potential development capacities. In addition, the key constraints in developing the identified areas, such as the lack of infrastructure and difficulties in land assembly etc, will also be explored, together with possible ways to overcome the constraints.

4.8               Through a study of the constraints, and taking into account other factors such as the ease of infrastructure provision, especially on mass transportation aspect, whether the opportunities are contingent to existing urban centres etc, we would be able to prioritise the development opportunities for use in formulating development options.

Socio-Economic Integration with the Mainland

4.9                     Our socio-economic ties with the Mainland, particularly the PRD region, are much stronger than ever before. For the past two decades, Hong Kong increases its population by a million per decade. Over half of it are migrants from the Mainland. Social ties with the Mainland are thus explicit. It is also noted, for example, that about 80% of the industrial

establishments in South China is Hong Kong related and over 70% of Hong Kong cargo throughput originates from South China, especially the PRD region. Furthermore, it is noted that many of us in Hong Kong are frequent travellers to the Mainland. In 1999, some 4.5 million Hong Kong residents, almost three in every five residents, had travelled at least once across the boundary to the Mainland. They together made a total of 97.1 million trips for various purposes.

4.10                  As a consequence of the closer ties, our development could be very much influenced by the macro economic situation in the Mainland.

4.11                 The cross-boundary traffic needs arising from the increasingly intimate relationships between Hong Kong and its economic hinterland have been examined in the Crosslinks Further Study. The findings of the Crosslinks Further Study are being complemented by the findings of the Port Cargo Forecasts (1997/98) commissioned by the Economic Services Bureau. The strategic planning implications of traffic and cargo movements crossing the boundary and other socio-economic linkages remain to be further examined.

4.12                 In order to ascertain the impacts of development on both sides of the boundary on each other, and to capitalise on the possible opportunities arising from development in the Mainland, subject to any further suggestions that may be raised, we will study the following aspects:

(a)            patterns of cross-boundary travel;

(b)             trends of Hong Kong residents residing in the Mainland;

(c)            socio-economic development trends in Guangdong Province and the implications on strategic planning in Hong Kong;

(d)            the spatial development patterns in the PRD region particularly the respective roles for major urban centres including Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Shenzhen, Macau and Hong Kong;

(e)            the positioning of Hong Kong in the regional development of PRD and the strategic planning implications;

(f)               need for additional crosslinks;

(g)            potential for provision of housing and social facilities in the Mainland for Hong Kong residents;

(h)            tourists/recreational developments in the PRD region and their implications on Hong Kong;

(i)              potential and opportunities for economic co-operation with Shenzhen and the strategic planning implications on Hong Kong;

(j)              potential and opportunities to strengthen the existing environmental co-operation with Shenzhen and the strategic planning implications.

(k)            the interface between urban development on both sides of the boundary with Shenzhen; and

(l)              potential for a 'boundary town(s)' including constraints, possible location(s), functions to be performed and extent of land requirements.

Environmental Considerations and Conservation

4.13                 Our environment is deteriorating, pollution is serious, urban areas have become dilapidated, and the residential environment leaves many people dissatisfied. In his Policy Address of 1999, the CE stated that to build Hong Kong into a world-class city, we should endeavour to make Hong Kong a clean, comfortable and pleasant home of which we are proud.

4.14                 To maintain a quality living environment not only can let Hong Kong people have an ideal home, but also can attract investments and talents from around the world. A quality environment means that we should be able to breathe clean air, swim in non-polluted water and enjoy a quiet, green and clean environment.

4.15                 To build a better environment, we will identify no-go areas to safeguard worth conserving areas of natural heritage and areas of high landscape value. Major environmental constraints and opportunities will be identified in the process of formulation of development strategies and responses plans. Regional environmental issues covering the Pearl River Delta region will also be taken into account. It is expected that HK 2030 will be an environmental friendly and sustainable development strategy.

Tourist Attractions and Heritage Preservation

4.16                 The tourism industry is one of our traditional economic strongholds. In order to enhance Hong Kong's appeal as a major tourist destination in Asia, we need to consolidate our existing tourist facilities and plan for new tourist attractions.

4.17                 In addition to an international theme park and a new state-of-the-art performance venue currently under planning, we will examine other potential opportunities. These should be based on our unique East-meets-West characteristics, and should comprise not only individual tourism projects but also district or area-based tourist attractions.

4.18                 Through the examination of our potential and opportunities and taking account of the upcoming recommendations from the Tourism Commission, we intend to formulate a broad physical planning strategy for promoting tourism and maintaining Hong Kong as a key tourist destination for visitors from the Mainland, from other Asian countries and from the rest of the world.

4.19                 In addition, we will formulate a broad land use framework for promoting tourism development in Hong Kong.

Development of Information Technology and its Implications on Land Use

4.20                 The CE has time and again emphasized the importance of information technology (IT). In both of his 1997 and 1998 Policy Addresses, he stated that Hong Kong should take a lead in the information world of tomorrow. Based on this vision, the Information Technology and Broadcasting Bureau has formulated an IT strategy entitled "Digital 21".

4.21                 We will look into the development trend of IT, high-technology and high value-added industries. The implications of such developments on the land use requirements will be assessed and taken into account when formulating development strategy and response plans with an aim to facilitating their future growth.

Requirements of Port and Other Major Infrastructure Facilities

4.22                 In view of the recent proposal to develop an international theme park in Northeast Lantau, we need to re-consider the location for port facilities originally proposed there.

4.23                 The Third Port Development Strategy Review recommended that we should take advantage of the proposed Tonggu Waterway and explore the feasibility of locating new port facilities at Tuen Mun West. We will also take into account the Study on Port Back-up and Land Requirements, Crosslinks Further Study, CTS-3 and RDS-2 and develop broad- brush proposals for the possible development of Tuen Mun West for new port facilities. These would provide a basis for a more detailed planning and engineering feasibility study to be undertaken separately.

4.24                 It is noted that intermodal transport links are very important for further developing Hong Kong as a transport hub in the region. Therefore, we will examine how to strengthen such linkages.

4.25                 In addition, we will take stock of and examine the future requirements for major infrastructure facilities of territorial significance such as Waste-to-Energy Incinerators, Sludge Incinerators and other major sewage and waste treatment/disposal facilities, prisons, crematoria, major territorial public transport facilities and highway and railway network, etc. We will identify possible locations to ensure their future development could be co-ordinated and be compatible with adjoining land uses.

5.          STAGES OF WORK AND KEY TASKS

5.1                   The preparation of HK 2030 would involve four key stages of work, as follows:

(a)          Stage 1 : Agenda Setting, Baseline Review and Identification of Key Issues;

(b)          Stage 2 : Examination of Key Issues;

(c)         Stage 3 : Formulation and Evaluation of Scenarios and Options; and

(d)          Stage 4 : Formulation of Development Strategies and Response Plans.

5.2                     The key tasks proposed to be undertaken at each stage of HK 2030 are briefly described below.

Stage 1 : Agenda Setting, Baseline Review and Identification of Key Issues

Task 1.1 : Informal Consultations

5.3                     To prepare for the formal launching of the review exercise, we have conducted informal consultations with experts in various fields. Views obtained, where relevant, are reflected in the consultation document prepared for the first stage public consultation and taken into account in the review process.

Task 1.2 : Review of International Experience

5.4                     We have also reviewed the strategic planning experience of some leading cities including their strategic planning processes, approaches to dealing with rapidly changing circumstances and their ways to tackle long term planning uncertainties.

5.5                     In particular, we have reviewed the experience of relevant cities which have gone through the process of economic restructuring similar to that of Hong Kong.

Task 1.3 : Review of Strategic Planning, Environmental and Transport Studies

5.6                     We will carry out a comprehensive review of major strategic planning, environmental and transport studies, consolidate and update their findings and recommendations for inputting into the strategy formulation process. A list of these studies is at Appendix B.

Task 1.4 : Review of Sectoral Planning Issues

5.7                     This task will cover the establishment and updating of the baseline conditions and, where appropriate, possible future requirements relating to the following land uses and planning subjects:

(a)       supply and demand of housing land;

(b)       supply and demand of industrial land;

(c)      supply and demand of office land;

(d)       tourist facilities and land reserved for tourism projects;

(e)       conservation areas;

(f)      port and port-related facilities;

(g)       overall land supply;

(h)       transport network; and

(i)      environmental conditions.

5.8                     We will mainly make use of currently available information in establishing the baseline conditions. From the baseline conditions, key problem areas and key planning issues would be identified for further examination. Work relating to this task has already commenced.

Task 1.5 : Socio-economic Development Strategies of the Mainland

5.9                     We have already collected a substantial amount of information about socio-economic developments in the PRD region. We will need to continue build up our data bank through acquiring the most up-to-date information. In addition, an extensive literature review will also be undertaken.

5.10                 We also need first-hand information on the current and planned developments in the PRD region, and, for this purpose, we will arrange visits to relevant PRD authorities to obtain and exchange information, particularly relating to their latest development plans including the forthcoming tenth 5-year plans. Liaison will also take place in the context of the Town Planning Special Panel established under the Hong Kong - Guangdong Joint Working Group on Sustainable Development and Environmental Protection.

Task 1.6 : Review of Government Policies and Establish their Strategic Planning Implications

5.11                 This task covers a comprehensive review of all government policies as contained in the 1998 and 1999 Policy Addresses documents as well as other relevant policy documents published by Government. The main purpose is to assess and establish their strategic planning implications which would be taken forward in the formulation of scenarios and development options and in the preparation of HK 2030.

Task 1.7 : Establishment of Principal Working Assumptions

5.12                 This task is to establish the principal assumptions which should be adopted for developing scenarios and development options. Initially, the assumptions adopted in the 3rd PDSR, on-going sub-regional planning and engineering feasibility studies and other strategic planning studies will be reviewed for adoption, unless they are found to be invalid.

5.13                 We have conducted a preliminary examination of these studies and have prepared an initial list of assumptions at Appendix C for further consideration.

Task 1.8 : Review of Planning Objectives and Key Issues

5.14                 Taking into account the views collected in the first public consultation exercise, we will review the planning objectives and key issues for adoption to guide the subsequent tasks.

Task 1.9 : First Stage Public Consultation

5.15                 We will arrange a consultation forum for members of the public and stakeholder groups and brief all relevant statutory and advisory bodies. The main purpose is to solicit views and comments on the planning objectives and key issues for HK 2030. We will prepare relevant consultation materials to facilitate the consultation exercise.

5.16                 Upon the completion of the consultation exercise, we will prepare and publish a report consolidating the comments and views received together with our responses.

Stage 2 : Examination of Key Issues

5.17                 Subject to the outcome of Tasks 1.8 to 1.9 above, we have initially identified the following key issues requiring detailed examination.

Task 2.1 : Population Forecasts and Housing Land Requirements

5.18                 This task is to prepare a technical report on population growth, different scenarios for future population level and the corresponding housing requirements. The scope of work is briefly described in paras. 4.4 to 4.6 above.

Task 2.2 : Establishment of Possible Development Capacity

5.19                 This task is to establish the possible development and environmental carrying capacity of Hong Kong, subject to further assessment of the constraints and potential. The possible 'solution spaces' will be considered for meeting the land and infrastructure requirements for future development identified in Task 1.4 and those to be established in this stage.

Task 2.3 : New Development Opportunities

5.20                 This task is to prepare a technical report on development opportunities and constraints - see paras. 4.7 and 4.8 above on the proposed scope of work.

Task 2.4 : Socio-Economic Integration with the Mainland

5.21                 This task is to prepare a technical report on socio-economic integration with the Mainland. The scope of work is briefly described in paras. 4.9 to 4.12 above.

Task 2.5 : Environmental Considerations and Conservation

5.22                 This task is to prepare a technical report on the environmental considerations and conservation. The scope of work is outlined in paras. 4.13 to 4.15 above.

Task 2.6 : Tourist Attractions and Heritage Preservation

5.23                 This task is to prepare a technical report on tourist attractions and heritage preservation. The scope of work is briefly described in paras. 4.16 to 4.19 above.

Task 2.7 : Development of Information Technology and its Implications on Land Use

5.24                 This task is to prepare a technical report on the development of information technology and its implications on land use. The scope of work is briefly described in paras. 4.20 to 4.21 above.

Task 2.8 : Requirements of Port and Other Major Infrastructure Facilities

5.25                 This task is to prepare a technical report on the requirements of port and other major infrastructure facilities. The scope of work is briefly described in paras. 4.22 to 4.25 above.

Task 2.9 : Formulation of Evaluation Framework and Evaluation Criteria

5.26                 The task will propose an evaluation framework for the evaluation of development options to be prepared in Task

3.7. A set of evaluation criteria covering the land use, transport, environmental, resource requirements, economic and social dimensions will be proposed. In this regard, sustainable development concepts will be integrated into the whole study and the options will be subject to the sustainability evaluation system developed under the SUSDEV21 Study. Options with the best sustainability performance will be identified and recommended.

Task 2.10 : Second Stage Public Consultation

5.27                 We will consult extensively on the outcomes of the examination of the key issues, the key elements that should be taken forward for the formulation of scenarios and development options as well as the proposed evaluation criteria.

5.28                 Upon the completion of the second stage public consultation exercise, we will consolidate the comments together with our responses in a public consultation report which will be published.

Stage 3 : Formulation and Evaluation of Scenarios and Options

Task 3.1 : Formulation of Methodologies for Sectoral Assessments

5.29                 This task is to propose the methodologies for the assessments to be carried out under Tasks 3.4 and 3.5. The assessments will cover such aspects as land use, transport and infrastructure, environmental, social and economic impacts as well as financial viability.

Task 3.2 : Formulation of Scenarios and Development Options

5.30                 The task will draw together the findings of Stages 1 and 2 to create a base for constructing possible development scenarios for the future. A reference, or base, case scenario will be constructed on the basis of prevailing policies and socio-economic trends. Additional development scenarios will be prepared based on the variations of key parameters such as the rate of population increase, economic growth, ease of cross-boundary movement and Mainland economic conditions, etc. Some indicative examples of possible development scenarios are shown in the table below.

Indicative Scenarios to Illustrate Possible Variations in Key Parameters

Scenario A

Key Policy and Development Parameters:

(1) Hong Kong Population Growth ---------------------------------- Low

(2) Hong Kong GDP Growth ------------------------------------------ High

(3) Ease of Cross-Boundary Movement -------------------------- Status Quo (4) Mainland Economic Growth -------------------------------------- High

Scenario B

Key Policy and Development Parameters:

(1) Hong Kong Population Growth ---------------------------------- Low

(2) Hong Kong GDP Growth ------------------------------------------ Low

(3) Ease of Cross-Boundary Movement --------------------------- High (4) Mainland Economic Growth -------------------------------------- High

Scenario C

Key Policy and Development Parameters:

(1) Hong Kong Population Growth ---------------------------------- High

(2) Hong Kong GDP Growth ------------------------------------------ Low

(3) Ease of Cross-Boundary Movement --------------------------- High (4) Mainland Economic Growth -------------------------------------- Low

Note : The above scenarios are indicative only. Scenarios to be examined will not be formulated until completion of the identification of issues.

5.31                 For each development scenario, possible development options will be formulated by incorporating environmental considerations and based on possible variations in strategic development concept, conceptual distribution of population and employment, strategic transport network, adoption of different transportation modes and distribution of special land uses (such as port facilities) etc. A coarse screening will then be conducted to identify the more realistic and practical development options to be taken forward in Tasks 3.3 and 3.4.

Task 3.3 : Preparation of Data Matrices for the Options

5.32                 For each of the development options constructed and identified for further assessments under Task 3.2, we will develop data matrices for population and job places for the three 'benchmark' years of 2010, 2020 and 2030. The data matrices for the early years would be more detailed, say, at the level of TDS zones; whilst those for the later years could be more broad-brush.

Task 3.4 : Model Testing

5.33                 The development options will initially be examined in respect of their transport implications by undertaking model testing on the related data matrices. In this regard, a land use-transport model will be set up.

Task 3.5 : Broad Assessments of Options

5.34                 Based on the methodologies established in Task 3.1, broad-brush assessments of the development options in respect of the landuse, environmental and socio-economic impacts as well as the financial viability will be carried out.

Task 3.6 : Options Refinement

5.35                 Based on the results of the model testing and broad assessments, development options found not sustainable from either the land use, transport, environmental and/or other points of view will be refined and re-tested. If no sustainable solutions can be identified for a particular development option, that development option will be eliminated.

Task 3.7 : Options Evaluation

5.36                 This task is to select an option as the preferred development framework for each development scenario. Whilst the methodologies and criteria for the evaluation will only be worked out at the end of Stage 2, initially we propose to adopt the Goals Achievement Matrix technique under which an evaluation matrix for each development scenario will be created and then the relative performance of the development options will be assessed against the evaluation criteria set out in the matrix.

Task 3.8 : Third Stage Public Consultation

5.37                 We will present the development scenarios, development options and results of the evaluation exercise and consult

extensively on the options, or components of the options, that should be taken forward for the preparation of HK 2030 and Response Plans.

5.38                 At the end of the public consultation exercise, a public consultation report will be prepared and published.

Stage 4 : Formulation of Development Strategies and Response Plans

Task 4.1 : Formulation of Short, Medium and Long Term Strategies

5.39                 This task is to prepare development strategies for the short, medium and long term, respectively covering the periods from 2000 to 2010, 2011 to 2020 and 2021 to 2030, on the basis of the base-case development scenario. The short-term strategy would comprise more definite proposals to enable the commissioning of detailed feasibility studies which would recommend the programme for the implementation of projects and the allocation of resources.

5.40                 The medium and long term strategies would comprise broad-brush development proposals and possibilities and options respectively to allow outline planning studies and broad-brush planning assessments to be undertaken.

Task 4.2 : Formulation of Response Plans under Different Scenarios

5.41                 This task is to prepare 'Response Plans' or 'What-if Plans' i.e. some broad guidelines on how to adjust the development framework and amend the implementation programme in response to shifts from the base-case scenario to other development scenarios. We will explore the applicability of a 'Trigger Point' mechanism, and define the key parameters and the milestones that would trigger the need to consider the relevant response plans.

Task 4.3 : Formulation of Monitoring and Review Mechanism

5.42                 This task will propose a mechanism to monitor the performance of the strategy proposals and for future review and updating of HK 2030 including the time intervals for review.

Task 4.4 : Preparation of Draft Final Report and Executive Summary

5.43                 A draft Final Report and Executive Summary covering the following will be prepared:

(a)       Vision and planning objectives;

(b)       The baseline conditions;

(c)         Examination of key issues;

(d)       Future land requirements;

(e)       Development scenarios;

(f)      Development options and their performance;

(g)       Short, medium and long term strategies;

(h)       Response plans; and

(i)      Implementation, monitoring and review.

Task 4.5 : Fourth Stage Public Consultation

5.44                 We will consult extensively on the recommended strategies and response plans and, if necessary and appropriate, will amend the strategy proposals in the light of the comments received.

5.45                 A public consultation report will be prepared upon the completion of the consultation exercise.

Task 4.6 : Preparation of Final Report and Executive Summary

5.46                 This task covers the preparation, production and publication of the Final Report and Executive Summary which will mark an end to the whole review exercise.

Study Programme

5.47                 We propose that the preparation of HK 2030 should be completed in about two years' time. An outline programme showing the timing and sequence for the proposed tasks is at Appendix D. The outline programme is subject to review as the study proceeds.

6.            PUBLIC CONSULTATION

6.1                     HK 2030 will set out proposals for Hong Kong's future development, and will touch upon many matters/issues that are of major concerns to the public. It will be essential to provide adequate public consultation at each stage of the formulation of HK 2030. In this connection, a public consultation strategy has been prepared to outline the objectives and tentative programme for various consultation activities.

Objectives

6.2                     The objectives of the consultation strategy are as follows :

(a)         to solicit views, comments and suggestions and hence foster community consensus on the planning objectives, key issues to be addressed, evaluation criteria that should be adopted as well as the essential elements of the preferred development strategies and response plans;

(b)         to instil a sense of partnership among the Government and the stakeholder groups on the preparation of HK 2030 and hence promote 'ownership' and secure acceptance of the recommendations; and

(c)        to raise the awareness of the general public of the preparation of HK 2030 and encourage public participation thereby gaining wider recognition of the strategic planning efforts of the Government.

Channel

Public Forums and Exhibitions

6.3                     Public forums will provide opportunities for stakeholder groups and interested members of the public to express views and comments. We intend to arrange exhibition(s) at appropriate stage(s) of HK 2030.

Focus Group Discussions

6.4                     More focused discussions with stakeholder groups will be organised to present our work and solicit their advice and suggestions, particularly on issues that may have implications on their respective fields. We will arrange focus group discussions throughout the entire process of HK 2030.

Presentations to Statutory and Advisory Bodies

6.5                     We will also arrange presentations to statutory and advisory bodies to obtain their views and comments.

Web-site

6.6                     The consultation documents and all working papers and technical reports will be uploaded to the web-site of Planning Department. We will invite written comments, either through the internet or by post to Planning Department.

Through the Media

6.7                    We will also promulgate our work through the media, either by way of press releases or informal/formal briefings to the press. We will collect the views and comments on our work expressed through the press and other media.

Consultation Documents, Information Leaflets and Other Publicity Materials

6.8                     To facilitate the consultation activities, consultation digests, information leaflets and videos will be prepared to enhance public understanding. After receiving the public comments, consultation reports highlighting our responses to the public views will be prepared and issued.

Four-Stage Public Consultation

6.9                     Public consultation will be conducted in four stages as follows :

(a)         Stage One:   to consult on planning objectives and key issues to be examined for HK 2030.

(b)         Stage Two: to consult on the findings on the examination of the key issues and the evaluative criteria.

(c)         Stage Three: to consult on the scenarios, development options and results of the evaluation.

(d)          Stage Four:   to consult on the recommended development strategies and response plans.

Panel of Specialist Advisors

6.10                 In addition to a more vigorous approach for public consultation, we have also set up a Panel of Specialist Advisors. The purpose of the Panel is to advise on the key issues of Hong Kong and to comment on the recommendations of the study.

6.11                 The Panel comprises of 12 experts from various fields in economic, transport, environmental and Mainland affairs, namely:

• Dr. Man Hung CHAN
• Dr. Hon-kwan CHENG, GBS, JP
• Dr. Wing Tat HUNG
• Mr. Kwok Chuen KWOK
• Prof. Si Ming LI
• Dr. Vincent H. S. LO, GBS, JP
• Dr. Cho Nam NG
• Mr. Sin Por SHIU
• Prof. Shu Ki TSANG
• Prof. Anthony YEH
• Prof. Yue Man YEUNG
• Mr. Plato K. T. YIP

6.12                 It is expected that the engagement of these experts in the study process would broaden our perspectives in charting the future development directions of our city.

APPENDIX A

Planning Issues Covered in Previous or On-going Studies

(a)       Overall Land Supply

• Last round of TDSR;
  • Sub-regional studies and Development Strategy Reviews, such as Metroplan; and
  • On-going Planning and Development Study on NWNT, NENT, etc. (Recommendations to serve as inputs; more thorough study required)

(b)       Population Forecasts

Hong Kong Population Projections 2000 - 2029 prepared by Census and Statistics Department in 2000 (More thorough study required)

(c)      Housing

Housing Demand Assessment and the Associated Studies (Serve as inputs; further study of additional demands required)

(d)       Industrial

• Industrial Land Development Strategy;
• Study on the Provision of Industrial Premises and the Development of Planning Guidelines and Design Parameters for New Industrial Areas and Business Park (PIPNIP); and
• Hong Kong Business Park Study (Updating required)

(e)       Office

Study on the Propensity for Office Decentralisation and the Formulation of an Office Land Development Strategy (OLDS)

(Updating required)

(f)      Transport (Infrastructure & Policies)

• Third Comprehensive Transport Study (CTS-3); and
• Second Railway Development Study (RDS-2) (Serve as inputs)

(g)       Urban Renewal

• Study on Urban Renewal Strategy;
• Stage II Study on Review of Metroplan and the Related Kowloon Density Study

(Serve as inputs)

(h)       Tourism

• Visitors and Tourism Study for Hong Kong; and
• Study on Hotel Supply and Demand in Hong Kong (Updating and further study of new opportunities required)

(i)      Conservation

Broad Conservation Strategy under the last round of TDSR (Updating required)

(j)      Recreation

Leisure Habits and Recreation Preferences and Review of Chapter 4 of the Hong Kong Planning Standards and Guidelines

(Updating required)

(k)      Cultural Facilities

Cultural Facilities - A study on Their Requirements and the Formulation of New Planning Standards and Guidelines

(Serves as inputs)

(l)      Port and Port-related Facilities

• Third Port Development Strategy Review (PDSR-3);
• Study on Port Facilities Development Strategy;
• Study on Tonggu Waterway; and
• Study on Port Back-up Facilities and Land Requirements

(Updating and study of alternative location(s) for port facilities required)

(m)        Environment

• Environmental Baseline Conditions and Strategic Environmental Assessment under the last round of TDSR;
• Strategic Sewage Disposal Strategy Environmental Impact Assessment;
• Deep Bay Water Quality : Regional Control Strategy Study;
• Feasibility Study of Waste-to-Energy Incineration Facilities;
• Sludge Treatment and Disposal Strategy Study;
• Study on Pollutants in the Atmosphere and their Transport over Hong Kong; and
• Study on Update on Cumulative Water Quality and Hydrological Effects of Coastal Developments and Upgrading of Assessment tool

(Strategic environmental assessment of  development  options required)

(n)       Other Major Infrastructure

• Electricity and water supply, telecommunication services; and
• Other major facilities like waste to energy incinerators, sludge incinerators etc.

(Stock-taking and study of new requirements)

APPENDIX B

Studies to be Reviewed

• Consultancy Study on Scenarios on Long Term Development of Hong Kong (2000)
• Study on Sustainable Development for Hong Kong in the 21st Century (2000)
• Territorial Development Strategy (1984)
• Territorial Development Strategy Review (1998)
• Study on Development Trends in Guangdong Province (1993)
• Third Comprehensive Transport Study (1999)
• Second Railway Development Study (2000)
• Planning and Development Study on North East New Territories (on-going)
• Planning and Development Study on North West New Territories (on-going)
• South West New Territories Development Strategy Review (on-going)
• South East New Territories Development Strategy Review (on-going)
• Metroplan (1991)
• Stage I Study on Review of Metroplan (1998)
• Stage II Study on Review of Metroplan and the Related Kowloon Density Study Review (on-going)
• Comprehensive Assessment of Redevelopment Potential in the Metro Areas of Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Kowloon and Tsuen Wan-Kwai Tsing (1997)
• Planning and Development Study on Hong Kong Island South and Lamma Island (on-going)
• Northshore Lantau Development Feasibility Study (on-going)
• Feasibility Study for  the South East Kowloon Development (1999)
• Survey to Ascertain Parameters used for Forecasting Employment Distribution (1998)
• Second Survey to Ascertain Parameters used for Forecasting Employment Distribution (2000)
• Study on Urban Renewal Strategy (2000)
• Study on Tonggu Waterway (1999)
• Third Port Development Strategy Review (1998)
• Study on Port Facilities Development Strategy (on-going)
• Port Back-up Facilities and Land Requirements (2000)
• Feasibility Study for Tseung Kwan O Port Development at Area 131 (on-going)
• Feasibility Study for Additional Cross-Border Links (2000)
• Study on Cross-Border Travel (1997)
• Cross-boundary Travel Survey (2000)
• Visitors and Tourism Study for Hong Kong (1996)
• Study on Hotel Supply and Demand in Hong Kong (2000)
• Strategic Overview of Major Airport Developments (on-going)
• Study on the Provision of Industrial Premises and the Development of Planning Guidelines and Design Parameters for New Industrial Areas and Business Park (1996)
• Industrial Land Development Strategy (1996)
• Study on the Propensity for Office Decentralisation and the Formulation of an Office Land Development Strategy (1998)
• Hong Kong Business Park Study (2000)
• Strategic Sewage Disposal Strategy Environmental Impact Assessment Study (2000)
• Deep Bay Water Quality : Regional Control Strategy Study (1998)
• Study on Update on Cumulative Water Quality and Hydrological Effects of Coastal Developments and Upgrading of Assessment Tool (2000)
• Feasibility Study of Waste-to-Energy Incineration Facilities (on-going)
• Sludge Treatment and Disposal Strategy Study (2000)
• Study on Pollutants in the Atmosphere and their Transport over Hong Kong (2000)
• Study of Air Quality in the Pearl River Delta Region (on-going)
• Urban Design Guidelines for Hong Kong (on-going)
• Planning Study on the Harbour and its Waterfront Areas (on-going)

The studies suggested above are by no means exhaustive. Other studies that are relevant to the review would also be considered, as appropriate.

APPENDIX C

Preliminary Working Assumptions

Global and Regional Development Assumptions

• Hong Kong's role and position in China - a major city in China
• Hong Kong's role and position in South East Asia - Asia's most cosmopolitan city
• Hong Kong's role as an international city
• Hong Kong's future competitiveness
• Hong Kong's role as a leading tourist destination
• Hong Kong's role as an important international and regional aviation centre
• Hong Kong's role as an important regional hub port
• China's accession to the World Trade Organisation

Strategic Development Assumptions

• GDP growth rates
• demographic and employment trends
• application of planning standards and guidelines, particularly development densities for residential, industrial and commercial/office uses

Strategic Transport-related Assumptions

The territorial transport assumptions will take into account the assumptions and findings of RDS-2 and CTS-3, wherever practicable. Close consultation with the Transport Bureau, Transport Department and Highways Department will be required in working out the specific assumptions.

Strategic Environmental Assumptions

For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that all the latest environmental protection initiatives proposed by SSDS and Feasibility Study of Waste-to-Energy Incineration Facilities, Sludge Treatment and Disposal Strategy Study and others will be implemented in accordance with their programmes.

Outline Study Programme Summary

Stage 1:

Agenda Setting, Baseline Review and Identification of Key Issues from 1st to 2nd man-month First Stage Public Consultation from 3rd to 4th month

Stage 2:

Examination of Key Issues from 5th to 7th month Second Stage Public Consultation from 8th to 9th month Stage 3:

Formulation and Evaluation of Scenarios and Options from 10th to 13th month Third Stage Public Consultation from 14th to 15th month

Stage 4:

Formulation of Development Strategies and Response Plans from 16th to 18th month Fourth Stage Public Consultation  from 19th to 20th month

** The outline programme is subject to review as the study proceeds.