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AFGHANISTAN ENERGY
SECTOR
Self-Sufficiency
DEVELOPMENT PLAN
Plan Summary Highlights
Ministry of Energy & Water
Document Purpose and Organization
Presentation purpose |
The purpose of this presentation is to provide a summary of the five year plan (2016- 2020) for energy sector development. The plan describes recommended outcomes, outputs, and required tasks for the sector and is intended to serve as a common reference for government and international development partners |
Table of Contents
Main Section | | |
Intent and purpose of plan | Page 2 | |
Plan organization and structure | Page 3 | |
Key outcomes and benefits | Page 4 | |
Key outputs and metrics | Page 5 | |
High priority programs and tasks | Page 6 | |
Key drivers of plan success | Page 7 | |
Five year plan next steps | Page 8 | |
| Backup Section |
| New Afghan generation forecast page 10-11 | Private sector participation page 14 |
| Transmission grid expansion page 12 | Plan risks & mitigation measures page 15 |
| Improving coordination page 13 | Detailed plan matrix page 16-18 |
| | | | | |
What is the structure of the plan?
For the full plan matrix please see the backup slide section
5 Year Plan The plan has three broad areas of focus (pillars)
Pillars 1. Providing energy
Economic, Institutional & International Trade security, and the private sector, government and
Energy supply, 2. Economic growth and development of
Educational & Cooperation
Equity educational institutions.
Development
3. International energy & climate change
Components considerations
Energy Supply Economic Devpt. Regional trade
(Generation, (energy jobs and (electricity & gas) • Each pillar is made up of components. transmission economic activity Transboundary • Each component has desired outcomes
/distribution, enabled by energy) hydroelectricity (what benefits will arise) energy efficiency) Institutional Devpt. (Water treaties)
Energy Security (Public Institutions Climate Change • Each outcome is measured by outputs
(Diversification, and private sector) (negotiations, finance (what must be measured) vulnerability & Educational Devpt. & tech transfer) • Each output has proposed tasks security) (planning & mgmt, International (what must be done) Energy Equity ops & maintenance, partnerships
(Urban, rural, low- Research & devpt. (Agencies &
income) associations) The list of Tasks
- Are used to determine financing needs
Outcomes • Identify gaps and duplication
- Help evaluate whether individual
Outputs programs / projects fit overall sector
development objectives Tasks
What are the key outcomes for the next five years?
The plan structure in the previous slide seeks to be broad and comprehensive enough to cover all energy sector development activities.
Some key benefits envisaged in each of the three ‘pillars’ are
Pillar I | | Pillar 2 | | Pillar 3 | |
Energy supply, security and equity | | Economic, institutional and educational development | | International trade and cooperation |
•Affordable imported power reaches the south and unserved provincial capitals •A more balanced mix of imported, domestic, conventional, and renewable energy •Better safeguardsagainst disruptions due to security threats and natural disasters •Reducing losses and being more efficient with energy use | •Jobs both in the energy sector and as a result of greater energy access •Increased private sector investor confidence •Increased local ability tomanage and maintain energy assets. •Better links between universities, government and the private sector | •More effective use of climate finance and technology transfer •Using Afghanistan's geographical opportunity to be an energy corridor •Demonstrating that Afghanistan is a valuable partner for regional and international climate and energy negotiations |
| | | | | | | | |
What are the most critical conditions for successful plan implementation?
The plan
Incorporating views and allocating responsibilities between government, the private sector, academia, the public and international development partners is necessary before finalization and critical for success
It is also critical to ensure that energy planning is coordinated between the 'top-down' national and 'bottom-up' local levels - this is high priority and detailed further on page 12
Institutional Setup & Agreement
Harmonize plans and budget requests
Align research and training with needs of sector
Optimize incentives for investment, reduce non-commercial risk, and provide jobs
| Top-Down |
• | Laws |
• | Regulations |
• | Policies |
• | National Plans |
• | Tariffs |
• | Educational curriculum |
• | Centralized finance instruments |
| Bottom-up |
• | Provincial energy plans |
• | Local project nomination |
• | O&M business models |
• | Energy security |
• | Local financing components |
’Top-Down’ National and ‘Bottom-up’ Local Planning
3500Domestic Generation Addition Forecast (10 year – preliminary)
New Domestic Capacity Addition by Plant and Commissioning Year
New Domestic Capacity Addition – Summary by Type
The majority of additional generation is anticipated from large-scale natural gas and hydropower, but renewable energy expansion is significant
Wind; 100
Microhydro; 100 Solar; 171 Biomass; 20
Natural Gas; 650 | | | Large Hydro; 1152 | | | |
Solar / Hydro; 120 Geothermal; 20
MW capacity Addition Solar / Wind; 10
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Notes: Shebergan (Gas) generation upper estimate 900 MW, lower bound of 600 MW used
Assumes ~4 years for commissioning of Sheberghan, ~3 yrs for Mazar after commencement
Transmission System Expansion Forecast - preliminary
The transmission line network will be expanded to connect the Southern load centers to the main grid and import power, as well as to serve provincial capitals
What are the risks to plan implementation (and how will they be mitigated)
Technical Risks | Mitigation Actions |
Plan technical elements poorly selected | Afghan /International plan review |
Plan elements poorly implemented / constructed | Project technical details prepared and reviewed to international standards |
Plan and assets poorly operated / maintained | Emphasis on O&M in plan design. Vocational training program enhanced |
Economic / Financial Risks | Mitigation Actions |
Costs not accurately calculated | Mature technologies selected. Costs benchmarked and reviewed |
Funding insufficient for plan (including O&M) | Unfunded plan elements ranked in order of priority and funded to ceiling |
Funding not requested with appropriate lead time | Masterplan Secretariat to consolidate/ align requests with source timelines |
Funding not received from sources in time | Past experience as benchmarks and bilateral discussions to expedite process |
Taxes and customs procedures deter investment | High priority action to review and revise procedures/taxes (if necessary) |
| | | |
Organizational / Institutional Risks | Mitigation Actions |
Stakeholders not adequately aware of plan | Plan distributed widely (excluding those elements with security risk), and presented by MEW both bilaterally and at fora such as ESCC |
Insufficient consensus on plan (donors / government / provinces) | Plan presented only as draft and stakeholder views taken into account before finalization. Mechanism to update plan based on new information |
Poor coordination amongst energy coordination bodies | Enhanced coordination between ICE, master-plan secretariat, RECC, and Provincial Energy Councils (PEC), in addition to centralized information support by AEIC |
Insufficient political will to implement plan | Regular updates on plan and consultations with Office of the President. Steering committee of coordination bodies to include core representation from energy line ministries / agencies, and include ancillary ministries and donors |
Security / Vulnerability Risks | Mitigation Actions |
International political factors threaten plan delivery | Risk evaluated through security / vulnerability assessment. Plan modified as necessary |
Afghan political factors threaten plan delivery | Risk evaluated through security / vulnerability assessment. Plan modified as necessary and security for critical plan components requested as a priority |
Pillar 2 (economic, institutional and educational development)
matrix – from Excel summary matrix
Ministry Of Energy and and Water(MEW)
Regional Energy Projects
CASA-1000
Electricity: it’s essential for modern life. Without it, development is delayed and poverty endures
Background:
- Central Asian and South Asian countries discussions on creation of regional energy market
- Some CASA countries face tremendous energy challenges with about 400 million people deprived of reliable access to energy
- CASA – electricity transmission and trade project aims to facilitate electricity trade between Central Asia and South Asia
- Institutional development and socio-economic prosperity in the CASA countries are high priority for themselves and Central and South Asia regions broadly
CASA requires:
• 500 kV from Datka to Khudjand (around 477 kilometers)
• 1300 MW AC-DC converter station at Sangtuda
• 750 kilometer high voltage DC line from Sangtuda through Afghanistan to Peshawar
• 1300 MW DC-AC converter station at Nowshehra
March 7 November 2016, Page 2017
Recent updates:
• CASA is conducting regular Video Conferences between the participating countries to speed up the procurement process
- Bid documents of the companies for Transmission Lines in Tajikistan, Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan are in evaluation stage.
- Converter stations Bid Documents are also under evaluation
- Afghanistan Transmission Line procurement has been in award of contract stage, and will be concluded in a months time.
March 2016, Page 7 November 2017
TAP-500
- On 13 Dec 2015, H.E. President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani, H.E. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov and H.E. Nawaz Sharif signed a MoU
- First and Second tripartite Technical Committee Meetings held in Islamabad on 11 April and 18 July 2016 on side-lines of Energy Sector Coordination Committee Meeting (ESCC).
- Three technical committee meetings have been conducted.
- A consultancy company was hired which made initial assessment and ranking of power interconnections and power trade options among the 3 countries through various 500-kV and 220-kV interconnection routes, under the general framework of Central Asia-South Asia Regional Electricity Markets (CASAREM).
March 7 November 2016, Page 2017
TAPI
Recent Updates
- Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India Natural gas transit project
- Construction works started in Turkmenistan
– feasibility study for the project route is underway in Afghanistan
- 3-4 take off points and 3 power generation stations
- TAP-500, TAPI and Railways projects will be executed in the same time due to costeffectiveness and security
Thanks For Your Attention
March 2016, Page 7 November 201724