The AFOLU Dashboard model was designed to analyse future land demands and land uses under diff erent sets of development scenarios and estimated greenhouse gas emission related to the land use changes under the scenarios. The model simulates the change in land uses based on the change in development activities for meeting the demand of people for settlements, food and wood and also animal for feed as well as government target for producing agriculture commodities for exports. As the population increases, the demand for settlement, food, wood and feed also increases which will drive the change in land uses. The food consumption pattern changes with GDP as well as the level of food loss and waste. The capacity of land for producing the commodity depends upon crop/plant productivities and cropping intensity/land use eff iciency. The changes of land use in the future therefore depends on the change in assumption on a combination of drivers, including population and GDP growth, livestock/animal population growth, crops productivity, cropping intensity, feed and food consumption level and production target for some key strategic commodities. The change in land use and land management will trigger the greenhouse gases emission and removal. The level of the emission and the removal can be controlled by mitigation technologies. Figure 4 shows the structure of the AFOLU Dashboard.
Fig ure 4. AFOLU Dashboard
The AFOLU Dashboard was used to forecast food production, food consumption, food trade balance, and land use for food, bioenergy and industrial needs and GHG emission from agriculture and land use by 20 50. Production and consumption grow in line with economic and population growth. The model also takes into account changes in food loss and waste along with the development of post-harvest technology and consumption behaviour. The outputs from the AFOLU Dashboard, namely agricultural commodity production and land use, were then be used as inputs to the C GE model.
The AIM/C GE-Indonesia model is a multisectoral, recursive dynamic model that will project the economic and environmental impact of any policy implementation at the national level. The input from AFOLU models influence production block and restrict land use. Meanwhile, outputs from the ExSS model provide basic data on energy supply. The C GE model results will be used to calculate impact of mitigation action to macroeconomic, sectoral, and environment.
The AIM-ExSS model is used to estimate rational projections of energy demand (electricity) by the user side (industrial, commercial, residential, and transportation). The power sector development is derived by the demand of electricity while the types of power generation are selected based on the costs and/or benefits, and also various issues related to energy supply security, investment climates, impacts to the economic growth, climate change, and sustainable development goals. The output from supply-side energy sector and price of energy will be used as inputs in C GE model.
4.1.2. Mitigation Scenario
Indonesia Low C arbon and C limate Resilience Scenario (LC C R) towards 20 50 has three development pathways. The three pathways include: (i) current policy scenario (C POS), (ii) transition scenario (TRNS) and (iii) low carbon scenario compatible with Paris Agreement target (LC C P). C POS is a scenario that follows the unconditional scenario of the NDC , while transition scenario is a scenario that bridge transition from the C POS to LC C P. AFOLU sector only considers two pathways, i.e. C POS and LC C P.
In the non-AFOLU sectors (energy, IPPU and waste), the C POS is the extend of unconditional NDC , in which the GHG emissions level in 20 50 is estimated by projecting the unconditional GHG emissions in 2030 to 20 50 with assumptions that mitigation and policies under unconditional NDC are extended until 20 50. The TRNS is development scenario in the transition period toward the development pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement. In this scenario, the emission reduction of the unconditional NDC beyond 2030 is enhanced by adding more mitigation actions but less progressive than the LC C P.
In the AFOLU sector, the C POS is also the continuation of policies and measures under unconditional NDC . The LC C P implements more progressive mitigation actions with the aim to reduce the emission significantly reaching net sink by 20 50 that make the emission level of all sectors compatible with Paris Agreement target. The emission pathway of AFOLU sector presented in the TRNS is the same as the emission pathway of the LC C P.
Under LC C P, it is indicated that this scenario will have emission pathway which much lower than the C POS and TRNS (see Figure 5). In the C POS and TRNS, the peak of emission will not be reached until 20 50. In the C POS, the emission will increase rapidly after 2030 and it will reach 2,454 Mton C O 2e or about 7.33 ton CO2e per capita in 20 50. Whereas in the TRNS, the increase of the emission after 2030 is much slower than that of C POS and it will reach 1,526 Mton C O 2e or about 4.56 ton C O 2e per capita in 20 50. Under LC C P, the emission will decrease rapidly after 2030 reaching 540 Mton C O 2e in 20 50 or equivalent to about 1.61 ton C O 2e per capita.
2020 2030 2040 2050 | 2020 2030 2040 2050 | 2020 2030 2040 2050 |
CPOS | TRNS | LCCP |
Fig ure 5. Projection of emission under the C POS, TRNS and LC C P
Of the three development pathways, it is indicated that the mitigation actions of the C POS are far from suff icient to meet the Paris Agreement target, due to continues increase of emission after 20 50. The TRNS gives much higher emission reduction than that of C POS, but the reduction will not be suff icient to reach the emission level in 20 50 which is compatible with Paris Agreement target. With very progressive mitig ation actions under LC C P, the emission level is expected to be compatible with Paris Agreement targ et. In this scenario, after 20 30 the emission decrease at a rate of about 30 .7 Mton C O 2e per year. If this decreasing rate of the emission c an be maintained beyond 20 50 , Indonesia is expected to g ain optimistic ally opportunity for more rapid progress towards net-zero emission in 20 60 or sooner.
4.2. Low Carbon and Climate Resilience Scenario
In-depth sectoral transformation plans require strong political will, coordination, specific analytical resource and expertise with significant public and private sector collaboration. Enhancement of the institutional capabilities and arrangements for the planning and policy-making processes is critical, as the sectors need to plan detailed actions over several time scales and ensure the right change can take place in the right way. The institutional capabilities for these planning eff orts and their implementation will require improved capabilities, as well as closer links to the research community, civil society, and the business community.
For the success of transformation, sequence of steps for the implementation of low carbon development compatible with the Paris Agreement target should be mapped into the existing institutional framework in order to identify current coordination arrangements and the needs for adjustments. These will be pathways of transformation spanning 30 years that require multi-step processes and should be mapped out in somewhat detailed sequence. Issues relating to ministerial attributions, levels of government, chains of command, and decision-making, as well as the scope for diff erent institutions to access resources such as finance, skills, or regulatory authorization, should all be taken into consideration. In addition, training and capacity building as well as infrastructure and skills to support the transition at the national and sub-national level is required.
4.2.1. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses
(AFOLU)
Indonesia has carried out many eff orts to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the objectives of the Paris Agreement. A number of innovative policies and measures (PaMs) have been issued to transform food and land-use systems to curb greenhouse gas emissions, conserve and restore biodiversity, promote healthy diets, ensure rural livelihoods, adapt to climate change, and meet other environmental constraints, including sustainable use of freshwater resources and reducing pollutants as well as halting the loss of marine and coastal ecosystem services. PaMs are directed to reduce deforestation either planned and un-planned (illegal deforestation) and forest degradation, accelerating reforestation and restoration of peat ecosystem, improving agriculture productivity and land use eff iciency, reducing food loss and waste and improving diets and food diversification and access.
Indonesia has committed through REDD+ to maintain the remaining natural forest. Policies that have been issued include (i) permanent extension of the forest and peatland moratoriums (Presidential Instruction 5/2019); (ii) implementation of mandatory certification for sustainable forest management; (iii) integrated, comprehensive, spatially explicit land use planning at national and sub-national level guided by the Government Regulation 46/2016 on strategic environmental assessments (SEAs) through landscape approach aiming at securing food, water, and energy security based on sound ecosystem management; (iv) establishment of new financial models for conservation and restoration in sustainable jurisdictions with the issuance of Government Regulation No. 46/2017 on Environmental economic instrument and other fiscal incentives; and (v) establishment of Indonesia Environmental Fund (Badan Pengelola Dana Lingkungan Hidup /BPDLH) through Presidential Regulation No. 77/2018 concerning Management of Environmental Fund. Indonesia is also in the process of issuing another innovative policy on economic value of carbon.
BPDLH will manage funds related to forestry, energy and mineral resources, carbon trading, environmental services, industry, transportation, agriculture, marine and fisheries, and other fields related to the environment. The goal is to be able to manage funds more optimally and synergistically, as well as optimise the use of funds and mobilise funding resources both domestic and international sources. This agency is guided by principles of transparency and accountability and meets international governance standards.
For increasing agriculture productions to meet the future domestic and global demand without significantly increase the demand for land, Indonesia also put significant eff orts to boost productivity and increase land use eff iciency and to optimise use of unproductive lands (idle lands). It will create better and more productive agricultural value chains, increase and improve access of small holders to market, reduce loss and waste of food, and improve diets and food diversification and access. The presence of these PaMs provides good foundation for implementing low carbon development compatible with the Paris Agreement target. Eff ective implementation of these PaMs could bring AFOLU sector become a net sink by 20 50 under C POS and by 2030 under LC C P (see Figure 6). However, the presence of international support will be fundamental to realize these PaMs as this require more investment and technology as well as capacity building.
Fig ure 6. Emission pathways under C POS and LC C P
The emission pathways in C POS will continue to decline and will reach near zero emission by 20 50, while for the LC C P it will turn into negative emission (net sink). In both scenarios, the significant reduction of emission occurs due to significant decrease in deforestation and peat related emission (peat fire and peat decomposition), and significant increase in carbon sequestration from secondary forest and from aff orestation and reforestation.
4.2.1.1. Forestry and Other Land Uses
Eff orts to significantly reduce the emission of this sector and turn it into net sink by 20 50 under C POS and by 2030 under LC C P depends primarily on the success of the following actions: (i) reducing emission from deforestation and peatland (peat decomposition and peat fire); (ii) increasing the capacity of natural forest in sequestering carbon (by reducing degradation and enhancing the regeneration); (iii) restoring peatland, (iv) implementing forest restoration (enrichment planting/sink enhancement), (v) adopting sustainable forest management practices; and (vi) maximizing the use of unproductive lands (idle lands) for the establishment of forest and agriculture plantations (see Figure 6).
a. Avoiding Deforestation
Indonesia’s land cover area is about 187.8 Mha, and about 120.3 Mha is defined as forest area and the remaining as non-forest area commonly called as “other land uses” or Area Penggunaan Lain-APL (MoEF 2018). Some of these lands are categorised as peatland with a total area of 14.9 Mha.
The total area covered by the natural forest in 2020 was about 90.1 Mha (48.0%), which is about 6.5 Mha in APL and 83.6 Mha in a forest area. Out of 83.6 Mha, about 6.4 Mha are in convertible production forest, meaning that this forested land can be converted for other land uses in the future and will be subjected to deforestation. Some of the non-forested land in forest areas are occupied by communities for agriculture activities (permanent or slash and burnt practices), and some remain as unproductive lands (shrubs and grassland or abandoned land).
To avoid further conversion of forest, Indonesia has issued a number of regulations. Some of key regulations are:
- Government Regulation No.10 4/20 15 on the changes of forest land use and function, which ban the conversion of forested land (productive production forest) in forest area for APL, except in the province where the non-forested lands in the production forest are not available;
- Presidential Instruction No. 5/2019 on Termination of New Permit and Improvement of Primary Natural Forest and Peatland Governance; and
- Government Regulation No. 46/20 16 on strategic environmental assessments (SEAs), which provide guidance on the integrated, comprehensive, spatially explicit land use planning at national and subnational level aiming at food, water, and energy security based on sound ecosystem management.
In the National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2020 -2024, forest area that need to be protected based on the value of ecosystem services of the forest, are expanded from 51.8 Mha to 65.3 Mha, which are located inside and outside forest area. This has to be considered in the process of developing land use planning at sub-national level.
The C POS and LC C P indicate that expected cumulative area to be deforested in the future are about 14.6 Mha and 6.8 Mha respectively (see Figure 7).
Fig ure 7. Expected forest conversion in the two scenarios
LC C P which requires future deforestation to be limited to 6.8 Mha to bring this sector becoming net sink also faces some challenges. Many concession areas (timber plantation and estate crop plantation) and non-concession areas in APL are covered by natural forest. There are more than 9.8 Mha of natural forests in the concessions and APL. By regulation about 50% of this area are not fall under the protection zone, thus allowed to be used for establishing the plantations and for development purposes. Without participation of concession companies and local governments, the area of the natural forest to be deforested in next 30 years will be about 1.8 Mha. On the other hand, there are about 6.4 Mha of natural forest are in the convertible production forest. To meet the LC C P target, this forested convertible production forest area should not be converted for APL. Under the Government Regulation No. 104/2015, forested area in the convertible production forest can be changed to permanent production forest. Thus, the area of production forest that can be converted for APL are only the non-forested land.
Indonesia’s experience in achieving significant reduction of deforestation rate during the period of 2018 to 2020 can be a valuable lesson to address the above challenges. Indonesia significantly reduced deforestation by about 75%, i.e. from 0.46 Mha in 2018/2019 to 0.12 Mha in 2019/2020.
Under the implementation of REDD+, the local governments and concessions who can conserved the forest beyond the existing regulation, are eligible for receiving Result-based Payment (RBP) under the Ministerial Regulation (Minister for Environment and Forestry) No. 70/2017. In addition, Indonesia is also in the process of preparing innovative regulation related to fiscal incentive, as part of the implementation of Government Regulation No. 46/2017.
b. C onservation and S ustainable Forest Manag ement
Government Regulation No.104/2015 provides an opportunity to increase forest area under protection zone, based on the value of ecosystem services of the area. Total area of forest under the protection zone at present is about
51.8 Mha (i.e. conservation forest: 22.1 Mha, protection forest: 29.7 Mha) and under production zone is about 68.8 Mha. In the RPJMN 2020 -2024, Indonesia has increased the area of forest under the protection zone to about 65 Mha, in which some of forest area under the production zone are allocated as protection zone. About 5.2 Mha forested lands allocated as the protection zone are in the concessions and in the APL.
Reducing forest degradation due to excessive logging and encroachment in the production forests has been put as other priority. Indonesia has issued mandatory certification systems (Ministerial Regulation No. 30/ 2016 by the Minister of Environment and Forestry) that push the adoption of sustainable management practices in the production forests. With this policy, many forest concessions have improved their management practices. Under LC C P, by 20 50 all forest concession companies have implement sustainable harvesting practices. At present, the forest concessions that have received the good forest certification reach about 76%.
Eff orts to restore the degraded production forest through enhanced natural regeneration (ENR) or forest restoration will also be increased. It is expected that under LC C P, area of production forest that being restored through the ENR programme after 2030 should reach about 1.70 Mha, about 2 times of the C POS, and by 20 50 it will reach 8.8 Mha or about 6 times of the C POS.
c. Protection and Restoration of Peatland
Significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions has been released from the use of peatland through decomposition and peat fire. At present emission from these sources contribute to about 50% of the total emission from AFOLU sector. Indonesia has issued a number of key policies to protect peatland and improve its management. Under Presidential Instruction No. 5/2019, there will not be any new permit for the use of peatland. In addition, the Ministerial Regulation No. 15/2017 (Minister for Environment and Forestry) mandates private sector and local governments to improve the use of peatland and water management.
Under C POS, it is expected that the improvement of peatland and water management by 2030 and 20 50 reaches 0.86 Mha and 1.04 Mha consecutively, while under LC C P it should reach 0.95 Mha by 2030 and 1.04 Mha by 20 50. For peatland restoration, C POS figures the area of degraded peatland being restored should reach 1.03 Mha by 2030 and 1.7 Mha by 20 50. While under LC C P, the target will be increased to 2.7 Mha by 2030 and 4.2 Mha by 20 50.
d. S ink Enhancement
Indonesia will accelerate aff orestation and reforestation of degraded land inside and outside forest area as well as urban revegetation for increasing sink. At present many lands inside and outside forest areas are unproductive lands (Table 1). These lands are in the form of shrubs, grassland, and bare-lands. It is estimated that area of unproductive lands reaches almost 30.1 Mha and about 26% of this land are considered as critical and very critical areas which urgently need to be rehabilitated. In addition, there are about 4.3 Mha lands in forest areas used by communities for agriculture activities (MoEF, 2019).
Table 1. Area of unproductive land inside and outside forest area
| Unproductive Land (ha) |
Non-Forest Area* | 11,043,446 |
- In concessions areas (HGU) | 2,603,872 |
- Non concession area | 8,439,574 |
Forest Area** | 19,063,796 |
- In concessions areas (HPH, HTI, RE, PS) | 8,954,348 |
- Non concession area | 10,109,448 |
Grand Total | 30,107,242 |
Note: * About 4.7 Mha and ** 3.0 Mha are critical and very critical lands (analysed from MoEF land cover data of 2019).
Under C POS, Indonesia aims to rehabilitate the unproductive lands with priority in critical and very critical lands about 4.32 Mha by 2030 and 8.6 Mha by 20 50. Under the LC C P, this target is increased to 5.3 Mha by 2030 and 10.6 Mha by 20 50. Several programmes have been launched for accelerating the rehabilitation of the land, i.e. social forestry and land rehabilitation programmes and multi permit policies for forest concessions that allow to use the degraded lands for agriculture commodities in the form of agroforestry.
4.2.1.2. Agriculture
Mitigation activity in agriculture sector is in indirect synergy with FOLU sector. The success of the implementation of FOLU mitigation depends on the agricultural conditions, where high planting intensity and improved productivity with support from advanced technology will reduce pressure on the forest and avoid forest conversion. At present, the agriculture sector contributes 18% of the emission for the AFOLU sector. The emission from this sector is expected to increase at a higher pace in C POS than LC C P. The eff ort to reduce emissions in agriculture sector is emphasizing the presence of support on technology, finance and capacity development.
The mitigation technologies accounted for in this sector are the adoption of low emission variety and water-saving paddy cultivation system (hereinafter referred to as SPR/STT) in the rice field, and utilization of livestock waste for biogas and livestock feed improvement in livestock management, and the reduction in using synthetic fertilizer.
a. Rice Field
Mitigation activities in the rice field are referring to the type of land system [3]. For the paddy field with continuous flooding, the mitigation action is to implement a low emission variety, while for the paddy field with proper water management, SPR/STT is the feasible option.
Emission factors for paddy fields in Indonesia are varied, from a high emitted variety (e.g. Inpari and C isadane) to a low emitted variety (e.g. Dodokan). In the case of continuous flooded land (high rainfall region with unavailable water system), moving to low emission variety is more eff ective, as it is more diff icult to manage the emission from water level. Under C POS, the adoption of low emission variety is expected to be 0.93 Mha by 2030 and 1.96 Mha by 20 50. Under LC C P, an ambitious target is set to 0.97 Mha by 2030 and 2.07 Mha by 20 50. The adoption scale approximately reaches 24% of the total rice field area by 20 50. The main emphasis of the SPR/STT programme is to increase rice production with minimum input and improved water use eff iciency (e.g. intermittent flooding) and organic fertilizer application. C urrently, SPR/STT is implemented as a pilot activity and the attainment from the pilot programme will be replicated to the other region. By 20 50, the technology programme is expected to be scaled up to 1.18 M ha and 1.31 M ha under C POS and LC C P, respectively.
b. Livestock
Demand for meat and milk will continue to increase following the increase of population and GDP. The current ruminant population in Indonesia is 43 million head and this will continue to increase following the historical trend. At present, Indonesia has imported meat and milk with increasing rate as the growth of meat production is lower than growth of meat consumption, and is anticipated to continue in the future. The mitigation actions comprise the utilization of livestock waste for biogas and improvement of livestock feed supplement.
The C POS and LC C P are setting a similar target for biogas implementation, accounted for 41,0 0 0 head in 2030 and 94,0 0 0 head in 20 50. However, the number is considerably low compared to the national livestock population as this activity requires high investment for biodigester and flaring facility and continues supply of livestock waste. Hence, there is an urgency to design this activity to be more attractive for a large scale and communal husbandry.
Research finds that shifting from high concentrate livestock feed to greenery feed, specifically in beef and dairy cattle, is potentially reduce methane emission from enteric fermentation. The feed supplement is a combination of the greenery and an additional feed supply of tannin from legume crops or urea molasses block. The target in C POS and LC C P scenarios in 20 50 is 3.42 million head and 6.58 million head, respectively.
c. The Use of Fertilizer
Applying organic fertilizer is expected to reduce dependency on nitrogen fertilizer usage. C ropland farmers are encouraged to use organic fertilizer to substitute the urea application. Under the assumed rate, urea dose under C POS will be reduced from 0.1183 ton/ha in 2010 to 0.1174 ton/ha in 20 50, while under LC C P will be reduced to 0.1172 ton/ha. The targeted land for this activity is cropland, which covers perennial, palm oil, rubber, rice, and other annual crops (e.g., vegetables, corn, casava) commodities. Under C POS, the adoption of this mitigation action in 2030 and 20 50 are expected to reduce the use of urea amounted to 3,0 89 ton and 58,513 ton, respectively. Under LC C P, the reduction of total urea used in 2030 and 20 50 is expected to be 5,374 ton and 65,697 ton, respectively.
4.2.1.3. Achieving the Goals
Avoiding deforestation to certain target will have implication on other sectors since the demand for land will continue to increase as the population increases. In both scenarios (C POS and LC C P), land uses and management choices leading to significant reduction of greenhouse emissions can achieve government target in maintaining rice self-suff iciency and export targets for several key agriculture commodities, particularly palm oil as well as industrial wood and bioenergy as defined in National Forestry Plan (RKTN), the Master Plan of Ministry of Agriculture, Road Map of APHI (Industrial Wood), and Road Map of GAPKI (Palm Oil). The strategy for avoiding deforestation while maintaining sectoral target is by improving crop productivity and cropping intensity, implementing integrated farming or complex agroforestry, optimizing the use of unproductive lands (idle lands) and reducing food loss and waste.
a. Improvement of C rop Productivity and C ropping Intensity
Increasing agricultural productivity and cropping intensity are key factors in meeting food demand in line with population and GDP growth, at the same time maintaining emission by reducing deforestation. This can be achieved by using high quality seeds, fertilizing, and adoption of agricultural technology. To achieve food security, eff orts must be made to increase the productivity of staple foods such as rice, corn and others. Rice productivity in Java in 2010 was 5.8 ton/ha and must increase by 12% in 20 50 to 6.28 ton/ha in the C POS and higher in the LC C P of 6.32 ton/ha. The rice productivity outside Java in 2010 is
4.2 ton /ha and must increase by 33% in 20 50 to 5.01 ton/ha under C POS and 5.2 ton/ha under LC C P. Increasing rice productivity in 20 50 will be achieved by targeting growth of 5-10% in 2020 -2030 and 9-12% in 2030 -20 50 (C POS). The target for increasing rice productivity is higher in LC C P, namely 6-12% in 2020 2050.
The targets for increasing the optimal productivity for other agricultural commodities by 20 50 is 8% (C POS) and 22% (LC C P) for corn, 10% (C POS) and 24% (LC C P) for vegetables, 27% (C POS) and 48% (LC C P) for cassava, 74% (C POS) and 95% (LC C P) for palm oil, 32% (C POS) and 51% (LC C P) for sugar cane, 31% (C POS and LC C P) for fruits and nuts, and 65% (C POS and LC C P) for industrial crops. Under C POS, the productivity target in 20 50 are: (i) 4.62 ton/ ha for maize; (ii) 10.15 ton/ha for vegetables; (iii) 22.88 ton/ha for cassava; (iv) 4.81 ton/ha for palm oil; (v) 6.12 ton/ha for sugar cane; (vi) 7.91 ton / ha for fruits and nuts; and (vii) 1.1 ton/ha for industrial crops. In the LC C P, the productivity target in 20 50 are much higher: (i) 4.91 ton/ha for maize; (ii) 11.0 6 ton/ha for vegetables; (iii) 24.84 ton /ha for cassava; (iv) 5.32 ton/ha for palm oil; (v) 6.58 ton/ha for sugar cane; (vi) 7.91 ton/ha for fruits and nuts; and (vii) 1.1 ton/ha for industrial crops.
Many of subsistence farmers are cultivating land for diff erent agriculture commodities in forest area, which is not allowed by regulation. Therefore, these subsistence farmers do not have access to government supports. By granting legal access through Social Forestry Programme, the farmers are eligible to receive supports from the government for the improvement of the farming activities by integrating the agriculture commodities with forest trees as agroforestry. Indonesia considers the Social Forestry Programme is a part of key solutions for addressing tenure issues and providing more access for community to utilise forest area and reducing poverty. The reforestation using agroforestry system will be implemented with the participation of all stakeholders in a way that balances social and economy interests. Furthermore, Government provides land right to the farmers through agrarian reform (TORA Programme). With this policy, communities who have occupied land in forest area under TORA Programme for agriculture activities will have the ownership right and access to government supports as well as partnership with estate companies for yield improvement and market.
The rice cropping intensity in Java in 2010 was 1.8 and must increase by 22% to 2.0 8 under C POS and 2.0 9 under LC C P. Meanwhile, cropping intensity for rice outside Java in 2010 was 1.45 and must increase by 31% in 20 50 to 1.72 under C POS and 1.78 under LC C P.
Increasing rice cropping intensity in 20 50 will be achieved by targeting a growth up to 20% in 2010 -2030 and 22% in 2030 -20 50 for the C POS. The target of increasing cropping intensity in LC C P is higher after 2030, namely 30 -31% in 2030-2050.
The target of increasing cropping intensity from the two scenarios for other agricultural commodities by 20 50 is only aimed at corn (5% in LC C P scenario), vegetables (5% in LC C P scenario), and palm oil (3-20% for both C POS and LC C P scenarios). Under C POS, cropping intensity in 20 50 is 0.95 for corn, 0.95 for vegetables, and 0.81 for palm oil. Under LC C P, the cropping intensity target in 20 50 is 0.98 for corn, 0.98 for vegetables, and 0.81 for palm oil. C ropping intensity of perennial crop such as palm oil refers to percentage of plantation that already reach productive stage.
Enhancing crop productivity under LC C P will need transformation policies that facilitates and increases the adoption of improved technologies and practices, improved policy for financial access and labour productivity. The following sections described transformation policies:
a.1. Farming Technolog y/Machinery
Increasing urbanization in the future will lead to a scarcity of labour in the agricultural sector. C urrently, 48% of the population lives in rural areas and 52% in urban areas. With an urbanization rate of 4.1% per year, it is projected that the population living in urban areas will reach 60% in 2025, increase to 68% in 2035, and reach 70% in 2045. The existence of a scarcity of labour demands a labour eff icient agricultural system through the use of agricultural technology and machinery. The intensification in agriculture by technology adoption is expected to increase productivity. Government has encouraged the use of technology and machinery in agricultural production and provided assistance to support the adoption of technology by farmers. However, the technology adoption rate is limited due to financial constraints. Increasing financial access for the adoption of better technology and machinery in both scenarios is very important to ensure that the target of increasing productivity is achieved.
Agricultural machinery support to farmers is the key to increase productivity to answer the challenges of increasing food demand in the future. There has been significant development of agricultural machinery support for farmers. Growth of pre-harvest machines distribution is 92% during 2011-2019 in the form of tractors, water pumps, transplants, cultivators, and sprayers aims to increase productivity. Meanwhile, post-harvest assistance in the form of harvester, dryer, threshers, and rice mills to reduce post-harvest loss distribution growth is lower. Adoption of technology by farmers should not merely rely on government support, but also should mobilise other sources of support including access to bank or non-banking financial institutions-NBFI (cooperatives, financial technology companies). Improvement of farmers/farmer groups access to credit can increase adoption of technology based on farmers needs and land condition.
Under C POS, the government is expected to continue agricultural machinery support to farmers/farmer groups. In this case, the role of field extension workers and universities is very important to ensure the adoption of agricultural technology in the field. Under LC C P, technology adoption is assumed to be much higher due to an increase of farmers/farmers group access to credits from bank or NBFIs to purchase agricultural machinery based on their needs. Empowerment of farmers group and innovative agriculture credit schemes (individual or group lending) is a key to higher adoption technology in the future. a.2. Financial Access
Intensification (technology adoption) and extensification for low-carbon agricultural development requires capital supports. C urrently, credit distribution for agriculture, forestry, livestock and fisheries, forestry and plantations is only 9% of total bank credit. The low distribution of agricultural credit by banks is related to collateral requirements and fluctuations in farmers income. C ollateral requirements become an obstacle for small farmers who have limited assets to access credit from banks. Most farmers (52%) use their own capital or borrow from relatives/friends to finance their farming activities, and only 15% have access to banks.
The development of innovative schemes in agriculture value finance is needed to increase access to capital from all actors along the chain (farmers, input traders and collectors/traders) to increase productivity of commodities. Under C POS, value chain finance such as Warehouse receipt system, Peer to Peer lending (P2P) and credit programme provide credits to buy agricultural inputs and tools for technology adoption to support low carbon agriculture. Optimizing the implementation of the National Strategy for Financial Inclusion (SNKI) by actively involving the financial services industry (bank) and NBFIs and related institutions is important to increase financing for the agricultural sector. Under LC C P, innovation in value chain financing schemes is needed in order to synergize with policies related to food security in line with emission reduction target, for example the development of main food commodities and provision of forest areas for social forestry.
a.3. Labour Productivity
Improvement of quality and capacity of human resource in agriculture sector is needed to support sustainable agriculture. Increase of human resource capacity correlate with higher ability and skills to adopt new technology to increase agricultural productivity. It will also increase the ability of farmers to play active role in the low carbon development process.
Under CPOS, revitalization of institutional and agricultural extension institutions will make a positive contribution to improving agricultural human resources. Under LC C P, providing suff icient space for the private sector (traders, modern market) and research agencies/universities to actively engage in empowerment programme can be a solution to increase production and market. In addition, development of agricultural vocational school is important to improve next generation labour quality and capacity for sustainable agriculture.
b. Integ rated Farming S ystem
The application of integrated farming in several agriculture and other land use sectors (food crop, fishery, livestock, plantation and forestry) will increase the eff iciency and productivity rate and its economic value. Integrated farming that will be developed in the future is the integration of oil palm-livestock (cows, sheeps, and goats). This integration of raising livestock within oil palm plantation is in line with an eff ort to support palm oil production and strengthen food security (reducing meat imports) under low carbon framework (reduces deforestation and conducting waste management). The livestock will provide organic fertilizer, improve soil texture, reduce the production cost, and increase oil palm productivity. Under C POS, integrated farming of oil palm-livestock is targeted to reach 11.70% (1.68 Mha) in 2030 and 22.72% (3.25 Mha) in 20 50. Under LC C P, the target is increased to 21.11% (3.02 Mha) in 2030 and to 34.33% ( 4.91 Mha) in 20 50.
The integration of plantation and animal production has also been regulated under the Ministerial Regulation No. 10 5/2014 (Minister for Agriculture). There are more than 14.3 Mha of oil palm plantation potential for integrated farming. However, the current implementation is only 3% of the total potential. To increase the adoption of the integrated farming practices, particularly for large scale plantations, Government will examine possible incentive for encouraging climate-friendly farming practices.
c. Optimizing Use of Unproductive Land
The use of current unproductive land in non-forest area will be optimised for expansion of cropland. In addition, the use of non-forested land in forest areas for agriculture production under the scheme of Social Forestry Programme will also be accelerated as well as the issuance of multi permit for concession to allow for producing non-timber forest products, including agriculture production through partnership with communities as part of approaches in addressing land tenure issues. Restriction of conversion of agriculture lands as mandated by the Law No. 41/20 0 9 on sustainable agriculture land is enforced.
Under C POS, the conversion of rice paddy land in Java will reduce significantly from 1.34% per year to 0.60% per year, while in LC C P it will reduce to 0.10%. On the other hand, with expansion of rice paddy outside Java also decreases from 1.31% to 1.0 0% per year in C POS and to 0.80 in LC C P. This will occur if cropping intensity for rice in Java can be increased from 1.80 to 2.0 8 under C POS and to 2.0 9 under LC C P, while for rice outside Java, from 1.45 to 1.72 under C POS and to 1.78 under LC C P which will be carried out through expanding irrigated land outside Java and the establishment of a new reservoir in Java.
d. Reducing Food Loss and Food Waste
Reducing food loss and food waste is one of strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emission. Without reducing food loss and food waste, the land required to produce food is going to increase. At present, the level of food loss at the harvest and post-harvest stages reached 11.2 percent and 6.65-11.1% at the retail level. Modernization of harvesting tools is needed to improve harvesting techniques and reduce yield losses. Furthermore, assistance with cold storage facilities and packaging technology are essential to reduce food loss during food distribution. Improvements in harvest and post-harvest technology are expected to reduce food loss from 71 Kg per capita in 2010 to 40 Kg per capita in 20 50 under C POS and to 34 Kg per capita under LC C P.
On the contrary, GDP growth in the future is assumed to have positive correlation with food waste due to higher food consumption. Food waste will increase from 21 Kg per capita in 2010 to 97 Kg per capita in 20 50 under C POS and from 20 Kg per capita in 2010 to 76 Kg per capita in 20 50 under LC C P. The fraction of avoidable food waste could be reduced through campaign (private household) and applying green certification for large scale consumers (e.g. restaurants and hotels).
4.2.2. Energy Sector
Energy sector is the second main contributor of emission after AFOLU. The GHG-emitting activities are power generation, transportation (passenger and freight), energy use in industry and building (residential and commercial).
The amount of GHG emissions depend on the magnitude and type of energy sources, which in turn depends on GHG mitigation measures. The mitigation options in energy sector includes: (i) energy eff iciency measures in all subsectors; (ii) substitution of fossil fuel by renewable in power generation and transport; and (iii) electrification of end use in building and in transportation (must be accompanied by decarbonisation of electricity).
4.2.2.1. Past Development
The primary energy from 20 0 0 to 2019 increased at a moderate average rate of 2.6% per year (see Figure 8). Significant decrease of energy supply in 20 0 8 was due to global financial crisis. Figure 8 shows some notable development of biofuel (crude palm oil based or C PO -based) in the past 5 years, as a result of biofuel policy which include price subsidy using budget collected from the biofuel feedstock producer (i.e. the palm oil industry). There were some notable increase in geothermal and hydropower, however the share of fossil energy remain very dominant. The biomass energy shown in the Figure 8 is traditional biomass used in rural residential.
Fig ure 8. Development of primary energ y supply
The primary energy is used to produce final energy such as electricity and oil fuels (refinery products). These final energy is used by energy end users such as transportation, residential, commercial and industry. Some oil fuels is also further converted into electricity. Some final energy end users such as industry sector also use primary energy (coal and natural gas) as their final energy demand. Therefore, coal and natural gas are considered as primary energy when they are used to produce electricity but they are accounted as final energy when they are used by end users.
The final energy is consumed by various energy end-users (residential, commercial, industry and transportation). From 20 0 0 to 2019 final energy consumption grew at an average rate of 3.1%. As depicted in Figure 9 that the majority of final energy is used in productive sectors i.e. industry and transport sector.
Fig ure 9. Development of final energ y consumption by consuming sectors
The accounting of final energy consumption is also made based on type of fuels. Figure 10 on the development of energy consumption by fuel shows the major final energy used in Indonesia are oil fuels, coal, natural gas, LPG, and electricity. C oal and natural gas are used by industry sector, oil fuels is primarily used for transportation. Small fraction of natural gas is used in residential and commercial. Electricity is used in industry, commercial and residential. Some fraction of oil fuels is also used in industry.
Fig ure 10. Development of final energ y consumption by type of fuels
The largest share in the power generation mix is coal power plants, followed by gas power plants, renewable-based power plants and oil fuels power plants. Figure 11 shows the power generation mix in 2019, which indicates that in order to reduce GHG emissions in power, mitigation actions need to be focused on coal power plants because of coal is the largest contributor in the generation mix and coal has the largest emission factor among fossil fuels.
Fig ure 11. Electricity g eneration mix 20 19
Figure 12 shows GHG emission estimation for year 20 0 0 -2019 which is estimated based on the energy supply and consumption. During 20 0 0 -2019, the average growth rate GHG emission was 3.9% per year. Sub-sector wise, energy industry (primarily electricity generation) is the largest emitter followed by transportation and industry.
Fig ure 12. Estimation of GHG emission in energ y sector by sources
4.2.2.2. Projection of Energy Sector Development
a. Basis for Projection
Energy sector development projection used the following assumptions:
- Annual GDP growth in 2010 -2020 was 5% and decreased to 1% in 2020 due to C OVID-19 pandemic, then gradually increase to 6% in 2025, with the growth of 2025 to 2040 is 5% growth and 2040 -20 50 is 4.5%. This annual economic growth is lower than those assumed in the National Energy Policy (Kebijakan Energi Nasional-KEN) projection which is 7%-8%. Therefore, the primary energy projection of LTS-LC C R in 20 50 is around 60 0 Mtoe, lower than that of the KEN which is 1,0 0 0 Mtoe in 20 50.
- Energy demand will grow in accordance with the development drivers (economic and population). As the result of eff iciency measures, the energy intensity of all energy consuming sectors in 20 50 will be much less than that of in the base year.
- In major industry fuels (gas, electricity, oil fuels, coal with C C S/C C US), the arrangement of C O 2 cap will have been implemented, C C S/C C US business using pipeline transport and trucking are already in place, and C O 2 from major industry will be handled by C C S/C C US.
- Energy input to industries will be transformed from primarily coal and oil fuels to natural gas, renewable (especially in smelters), and electricity, in decreasing order.
- By utilizing C C S/C C US in industrial fossil energy systems, electrification of industry equipment and use of renewables especially hydropower in smelters, GHG emission intensity for industry is expected to be low. However, the level of GHG emission intensity will depend on the carbon content of the electricity supplied by the utility and the access of smelters to the hydropower resources.
- Implementation of eff iciency measures, decarbonization of power using large renewable and coal with C C S/C C US, and biofuel use in transport will enable energy sector to achieve significant emission reduction. The emissions in energy sector will decline from 1,030 Mton C O 2e in 2030 to around 572 Mton C O 2e in 20 50.
a.1. Power
Demand for electricity comes from residential, commercial and industry, with a small fraction of the demand comes from transport (train). In the future significant fraction of electricity will be used by transport which is expected to shift to electric vehicles. Indonesia’s electricity consumption has grown at an average rate of 5.9%, from 135 TWh in 20 0 9 to 240 TWh in 2019 (source: HEESI-2020).
In 2020, Indonesia household electrification reached 98% (MEMR 2020), which was connected to on-grid (large power plants) and off grid electricity (smaller plants, mostly renewables). It is targeted that in the future all household will have electricity access through grid and non-grid as well as roof-top solar PV.
Based on past experience, demand growth of electricity will be around 5% per year. The need for new capacity, replacement and transmission expansion will be in line with the demand growth. At present, majority of power generation is fuelled by coal, while other power plants use gas, hydropower and geothermal. It is expected that in 20 50 the power sector will nearly decarbonised, through: (i) utilization of renewables (hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass) in massive scale; (ii) most coal powerplants are equipped with C C S/C C US; and (iii) biomass-coal cofiring power plants are connected to C C S (Biomass Energy with C arbon C apture and Storage or BEC C S). Since Indonesia is an archipelago, the power system will be developed in the form of distributed power, instead of large centralised system. Power system with various types of power plants and diff erent degree of intermittency will have to cope with grid stability. Therefore, the power sector will require reliable technology and dispatch management that ensure electricity grid stability. Given that BEC C S is expected to play a significant role in GHG mitigation of power sector, large amount of solid biomass supply for the BEC C S need to be prepared and developed, therefore, an integrated land use planning is crucial to ensure sustainable feedstock supply of biofuel and wood biomass for BEC C S.
It is envisaged that the power situation in 20 50 under LC C P will be as follows:
- Power generation mix are: renewables (43%), coal (38%), natural gas (10%) and BEC C S (8%).
- The renewables include hydro, geothermal, solar PV, biomass, biofuel and wind.
- Around 76% of the coal power plant are equipped with C C S to achieve zero emissions in coal power plants.
- Installed capacity of renewable power generation mix are: solar PV 113 GW, hydro 68 GW, geothermal 23 GW, wind power 17 GW, biomass 13 GW, biofuel 14 GW and BEC C S 23 GW with negative emissions.
- The supply availability of some renewable power plants are intermittent, and therefore, in order to have a reliable supply system it will require integration with continuous stable power supply system (baseload) such as coal power plants.
- The carbon intensity of power generation: 104 gram C O 2/kWh.
- Increasing development of ‘off -grid’ and ‘micro-grid’.
- Due to significant portion of intermittent renewable (solar and wind) will be deployed in the future, it will require development of smart grid that can handle large supply intermittency.
- Power plant with 10 0% renewable energy in remote areas will need Smart Micro Grid.
a.2. Transport
In 2010 the metropolitan population accounts for 18% of the total population and is projected to reach around 25% in 20 50 with increased population density in city centres and urban peripheries[4].
The type of land use in old town areas of metropolitan cities can be categorised as mixed land use where residential development, shops, employment community and recreation facilities, parks and open space are located close to each other. However, recent development of areas in metropolitan can be categorised as specialised land use, where industrial area is located outside the cities and new housing is built at the periphery of cities. In non-metropolitan cities, the land use type can be categorised as mixed land use. Previous spatial distribution of population did not consider transport network since the transport network has not existed. Recently, site selection for new housing complex especially in metropolitan cities begin to consider the development of transport network such as BRT, LRT, dedicated lane for buses and inter-modality. C urrent transport infrastructure development focuses in motorized transport systems.
Sociocultural practices, lifestyles and social status aff ect transport. Transport infrastructure development has focused on motorized transport systems. In the future, the majority of the population will need to use public transport due overloaded traff ic by excessive using of private vehicles. Information and C ommunication Technology (IC T) development will encourage tele-activity and eventually lessen personal transport load in metropolitan as well as in nonmetropolitan cities. C arpooling which has been partially practiced recently in metropolitan cities will continue to be implemented, driven by needs such as to avoid traff ic jam.
The transport sector in the future is envisaged to drastically change, with the passenger transport mode are mostly mass public transport (buses, MRT, LRT) in metropolitan, buses in smaller cities, trains and big buses for inter-city transport, and air transport for between metropolitan and inter island (ships and ferries). Meanwhile, freight transport are train for inter-city, trucks/trailers, air and ships for inter-island cargoes, as well as small trucks in cities.
The main energy source for transport are biofuels, oil fuels and electricity. Mitigation target in transport will be achieved by: (i) electrification of transport; (ii) supplying more biofuels for diesel substitute (fatty acid methyl-esther and bio-hydrocarbon or green diesel); and (iii) gasoline substitute (bioethanol and C PO -based gasoline). Since the past 10 years the government has introduce biofuels made from C PO, which is blended with petroleum diesel and called B20 (20% biodiesel plus 80% petroleum diesel).
It is envisaged that Indonesian transport situation in 20 50 under LC C P will be as follows:
- Transport distance of non-constrained transport (leisure, social or family visits) in metropolitan is around 10 km.
- Travel distance of constrained transport (home-to-work/school) is around 40 km (in Jakarta).
- Some fraction of the workforces are working from home (tele working) by opening businesses at their homes such as small shops, maintenance and repair services and restaurants.
- The breakdown of transport energy in 20 50 are: biofuels (46%), oil fuels (20%), electricity (30%) and natural gas (4%). The biofuel (C PO -based) programme is considered successful and will be continued to 20 50 by supplying biofuel with higher biodiesel proportions (B30, B40, B50), which will be produced from sustainable sources.
- “Mobility as a service” will continue to grow.
- Household expenditure for transport is around 20% of total household spending.
- C hoice of mode of transport is aff ected by cost, comfort level and social status.
- Many cities are connected by inter-city trains especially in Java. Existing plan shows that 3,20 0 km of train tracks will be built to serve transport in Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi.
b. Projection of Primary Energ y S upply
The types of primary energy used in Indonesia are: coal, oil fuels, natural gas and renewables (hydropower, geothermal, solar, wind and bioenergy). C oal and natural gas are also used as final energy in industry, natural gas are also used as final energy in residential and commercial. It is estimated that from 2010 to 20 50, primary energy supply will grow, on average, around 3% per year. The projections of primary energy by types of energy for the 3 scenarios are presented in Figure 13. The Figure shows that C POS gives the largest energy supply (due to largest energy demand), which indicates that current policy will not lead to eff icient energy systems. The TRNS and LC C P have lower energy supply due to lower energy demand resulted by energy eff iciency measures in end users. The scenario that will result in the lowest primary energy supply is the LC C P. Figure 13 shows all energy types will continue to increase until 20 50 except for oil. The share of oil will become the lowest in 20 50. Under LC C P, notable change is projected to occur in 20 50 where the share of renewable will become the highest in the energy supply. The Figure also indicates that even until 20 50 the role of coal in energy supply will remain significant, especially in power sub-sector which will be equipped with carbon capture and storage (C C S) systems.
Fig ure 13. Projection of primary energ y supply under C POS, TRNS and LC C P
c. Projection of Final Energ y Demand
The projection of by-type final energy demand for the 3 scenarios is presented in Figure 14, which indicates that there will be a significant change toward 20 50 i.e., electricity is projected to be the most dominant type of energy.
Fig ure 14. Projection of final energ y demand by fuel type under C POS, TRNS and LC C P
Figure 15, which show the projection of final energy demand by the consuming sectors, indicates that the distribution of the sectoral energy consumption in 20 50 will remain the same with that in 2010 and the share of commercial and residential consumption significantly increase in 20 50 due to increasing role of commercial sector in the economy and increase of people welfare.
Fig ure 15. Projection of final energ y demand by consuming sector under C POS, TRNS and LC C P
d. Projection of Electric Power Generation and Grid Emission Factor The projection of power generation mix and the associated emission factor of electricity are shown in Figure 16, which shows that electricity generation will increase significantly as the result of economic development, people welfare and population growth. From 2010 to 20 50, electricity generation will increase in average 5.5% per year, which is about the same with the average economic growth. This may be the results of electrification of end user where people prefer electricity than combustion energy systems, also because of the development of commercial sector where its energy consumption is mostly in the form of electricity.
Figure 16 shows a significant diff erence in power generation mix of the three scenarios, that C POS will rely primarily on coal while the TRNS and LC C P are more diversified, with LC C P has more coal power plant equipped with C C S/ C C US and renewables, including BEC C S in 20 50. Under LC C P, where the share of C C S is significant, the resulted emission factor will be significantly lower than other scenarios. In 20 50, emission factor of C POS, TRNS and LC C P are 502, 295 and 14 gram C O 2 per KWh respectively.
Fig ure 16. Projection of power g eneration mix and g rid emission factor under C POS, TRNS and LC C P
4.2.2.3. GHG Emission Projections and Mitigation Strategy
The projections of C O 2 emissions from energy activities is presented in Figure 17, which shows that under C POS, the major contributor of GHG emission is electricity (power generation). C POS will result in continuous increase of GHG emission and reach around 2,115 Mton C O 2e in 20 50. TRNS, where significant and high impact mitigation action start to be implemented, will result in lower GHG emission level but continue to increase with emission level reach around 1,431 Mton C O 2e in 20 50. Under LC C P, where high impact mitigation action such as C C S/C C US have been largely implemented, GHG emissions is projected to decline from 1,030 Mton C O 2e in 2030 to around 572 Mton C O 2e in 20 50. Figure 17 also shows that the electricity is the determinant of the total energy sector GHG emission level.
Under TRNS and LC C P, deep cut of total GHG emission in energy sector will occur when there is a deep cut in power emissions, which is resulted from the use of C C S/C C US, BEC C S and renewables.
Fig ure 17. Projection of energ y sector emissions by emitting sector under C POS, TRNS and LC C P
Figure 18 shows a clearer picture of the diff erence of the emission projection of the three scenarios, that up to 2030 the three scenarios give the same level of emission (C POS). In the beginning of 2030, the trajectories deviate from C POS trajectory as more ambitious mitigation actions begin to be implemented. After 2030 GHG emissions under TRNS still continue to increase with lower slope, while under LC C P the emissions continue to decrease.
Fig ure 18. Projection of energ y sector total emissions under C POS, TRNS and LC C P
Based on the understanding of type of fuels and energy-consuming sectors, taking into account past development and future projection of energy demand and supply, the LTS-LC C R was developed using the following general guidelines:
- Focussing on power sector.
- Minimize energy demand without sacrificing people welfare and economic development (energy eff iciency measure),
- Develop more eff icient transport system (promote mass public transport), electrification of vehicles and other equipment at end-users (residential and commercial) with decarbonized electricity.
- Develop biofuels for transport and power plants, including biofuel resource base (feedstock, plantation).
- Shifting fuel from coal to gas and renewable in industry.
- Develop renewable energy (hydro, geothermal, solar PV and wind, including capacity development to produce solar PV and batteries) in power, transport and industry, which will consequently reduce coal for power.
- BEC C S (negative emission) will be used and the remaining coal power plants will be equipped with C C S/C C US.
4.2.2.4. Issues to be Addressed
The planned mitigation actions under LTS-LC C R involve promotion of certain type of approach or technology that will lead to emission reduction but in some cases at the expense of other existing technology or approach, which are considered as unintended consequences. In order to minimize unintended consequences, the following issues were identified to be addressed during the planning and implementation period of the LTS-LC C R: (a) stranded/unmined coal resources/assets associated with large reduction of coal use in power generation, (b) stranded assets in the form of unused or early retirement of fossil-based power plants due to “locked-in” situation, and (c) migration of mining/fossil energy manpower to “green job”.
a. S tranded Assets
Decarbonisation of energy sector requires substitution of the use of fossil energy by renewable energy and implementation of energy eff iciency measures. Other approach to achieve decarbonization in energy sector is by continuing the use of fossil energy equipped by C C S/C C US or other storage methods. Substitution of fossil energy by renewable energy will cause fossil energy resources are left unexploited and remain left underground and become stranded assets with some economic implications to the country.
Indonesia with total reserve and resource of about 29 billion ton and 115 billion ton respectively is a major player of coal and is one of the largest coal exporter in the world. In 2019 Indonesia’s coal production reached 610 Mton where around 375 Mton were exported. In the past years, the coal production grew at a very high rate of 8% per year from 275 Mton in 2010 to 610 Mton in 2019. Based on the current development trend, coal production is estimated to remain high with slow decline. Under C POS coal production will reach 525 Mton in 20 50, where 80% of the production will be used to meet domestic demand. Under LC C P and global climate change regime (lower global coal demand), coal demand will decrease and consequently the production will also slow down accordingly. In 20 50 coal production is estimated to reach 322 Mton where the majority of it (290 Mton) will be used to fulfil domestic demand. Under this scenario, the coal industry will have production loss of 203 Mton in 20 50. The loss would be much bigger if Indonesia’s mitigation strategy were in the form of extreme coal elimination (phase out). Figure 19 illustrates Indonesia’s coal production and production loss at two diff erent scenarios (C POS and LC C P).
Fig ure 19. C oal production, domestic consumption and production loss (annual and cumulative)
Figure 19 shows that cumulative loss of coal production between 2030 -20 50 will be around 2.4 billion ton. By using future coal price of USD 90/ton, the cumulative value of opportunity loss of coal production will be around USD 218 billions. Furthermore, there will also be economic loss associated with loss of production opportunity, such as coal mine investment that is already in place will become a wasted capital.
b. Locked-in of Fossil Power Plants
C onsideration of locked-in phenomenon of fossil fuel-based power plant such as coal power plant will be essential in the planning of power plant for the period of 2020 to 20 50. This is due to the fact that once the coal power plant is installed, it will be diff icult to replace the plant with renewable ones as replacement of power plant that is already installed and operational will be costly and impractical.
c. Preparation of Mig ration to Green Jobs
The switch from fossil-based energy system to low carbon energy system will be accompanied by generation of economic opportunity associated with renewable energy development, including employment opportunity. Preparation of employment transition from fossil-based energy system to low-carbon energy system will be part of overall energy transition eff orts. The transition will require preparation of human resources which will be aligned with policies and programmes on human resource development, including policies and programmes towards Indonesia Vision 2045.
4.2.3. Waste Sector
Four following pillars of guidance are used to develop a long-term low-carbon strategy toward zero emissions in the waste sector, taking into account past development and projection of future waste management activities through reduction, avoidance, destruction, and utilization of GHG emissions, particularly methane (CH4) gas, which generated during the treatment of municipal solid waste (MSW), domestic wastewater, and industrial solid waste and wastewater.
In the MSW treatments, the reduction is implemented through the utilization of aerobic treatment for the management of solid waste disposal sites (SWDS), the avoidance is implemented by reducing the waste to be treated to avoid the generation of methane gas emissions, i.e. recycling (3R), waste banks, ITF (Intermediate Treatment Facilities), and composting (compost house), MSW bio-digester, and the destruction/utilization is implemented by burning the landfill gas (LFG) for flaring, power generation, or gas cooking in household, producing the RDF (refuse derived fuel), and burning the waste in PLTSa[5] (MSW power plant).
In the domestic wastewater treatments, the reduction is implemented through the use of aerobic treatment for septic tank, the avoidance is implemented through recovering of septic tank sludge for sludge treatment and treating domestic wastewater using centralised aerobic system, and the utilization is implemented through recovering methane gas from communal bio-digester.
In the industrial waste treatments, the reduction is implemented by introducing aerobic processes for the treatment of wastewater, solid waste, and sludge of wastewater treatment, the avoidance is implemented by utilizing solid waste (including sludge from wastewater treatment) for fuels or materials and composts, and the destruction is implemented by introducing biodigester process equipped with a methane recovery system (biogas) for flaring (to destroy the methane gas), electricity generation or fuels.
4.2.3.1. Waste Sector Development and Projection
The projection of GHG emissions level is estimated using assumptions that the rate of increase in the amount of waste generation and waste to be treated in each of treatment unit is aff ected by several parameters, i.e. population growth, economic growth, regulations, policies, lifestyle, treatment plans, and source reduction rate of the waste. Those parameters will result in increase or decrease of GHG emissions level. The population and economic growth used for estimating waste generation refers to the data from Statistics Indonesia in Sub-chapter 2.1.
a. Municipal S olid Waste (MS W) Manag ement
Law No. 18/20 0 8 regarding MSW management obliges local governments to manage MSW. In addition, there are National Policy and Strategy (Jakstranas) and Provincial Policy and Strategy (Jakstrada) in waste management as well as Presidential Regulation No. 35/2018 concerning MSW utilization for electricity generation in PLTSa or RDF (refuse-derived fuels) that support GHG emission reduction.
C urrently, most of MSW is transported to SWDS after it is reduced at sources, composted, recycled, and recovered. Under C POS, the MSW will be managed through waste reduction at sources (30%) by 3R (reduce-reuse-recycle) and waste treatment (70%) through landfilling, composting, and converting waste to energy. This 3R is a part of C ircular Economy which is promoted in Indonesia.
If it is assumed that MSW can be reduced at sources, the MSW generation is estimated to be 25 ton/capita/year with the growth rate of about 0.6% per year during 2020 -20 50, and the MSW is estimated to increase to reach 83.8 Mton in 20 50. Under C POS, 70% of the MSW will be managed in landfill and/or converted to energy as PLTSa and/or RDF. The remaining 30% of MSW will be reduced at sources through 3R and composting. However, only those related to paper recycled and/or reused that are considered as mitigation measures. Removing the paper from the waste to be treated in SWDS can reduce the GHG emissions because the paper has high DOC and DMC (parameters that determine the amount of GHG emissions generation in SWDS).
Under C POS, the mitigation include 30% waste reduction and 70% of the waste is treated in SWDS (some of them equipped with LFG recovery) and utilized for energy (PLTSa and RDF), which in turn reduce open burning significantly. The mitigation also covers additional septic tank (equipped with biogas and sludge recovery), implementation of aerobic system, and the use of industrial liquid / solid waste for energy production.
TRNS increases the potential of C POS mitigation by adding the number of SWDS equipped with LFG recovery, the amount of MSW used for PLTSa and RDF/SRF (solid recover fuels), the number of biodigester equipped with biogas and sludge recovery, and the number of paper recycling and composting. The mitigation also covers the increase of septic tanks utilisation (50% new houses) equipped with biogas recovery or aerobic, sludge recovery systems and increased utilization of waste for energy.
LC C P increases the potential of TRNS and C POS mitigation significant adding the number of SWDS equipped with LFG recovery, the amount of MSW used for PLTSa and RDF/SRF, the number of biodigester equipped with biogas and sludge recovery, and the number of paper recycling and composting. The mitigation also covers the increase of septic tanks utilisation (10 0% new houses) equipped with biogas recovery or aerobic, sludge recovery systems and increased utilization of waste for energy. Increased use of septic tanks (10 0% new houses) equipped with biogas recovery, aerobic systems, sludge recovery and maximizing the utilization of liquid waste and industrial solid waste for energy.
Figure 20 shows the stream of MSW management and the associated GHG emissions. Introducing composting, paper recycling, and PLTSa (including RDF) will reduce the amount of MSW to be treated in SWDS and open burning practices, which in turn will decrease the GHG emissions in the LC C P significantly with the level lower than GHG emissions level in 2010.
Fig ure 20. MS W manag ement and the associated GHG emissions under C POS, TRNS, and LC C P
b. Domestic Wastewater Treatment (WWT)
Refer to Statistic Indonesia, 89% of people live in urban area and 71% of people live in rural area can access toilet (individual or communal), which the use of centralised treatment and biodigester are limited. The government long-term plan has target that all people have access to toilet whether it is individual or communal toilets. Most of those toilets have septic tank/latrine to treat the black water, while small fraction of those toilets has channel to a wastewater sewerage to treat the grey water in a centralised WWT plant. The remaining population cannot access the toilet as well as the septic tank (households or population with no septic tank).
The associated emissions from domestic wastewater are influenced by wastewater characteristics and types of the WWT technology. The total degradable organic compound in wastewater (TOW) is the main characteristics that significantly aff ect the GHG emissions generation of the treatment plants while the type of treatment technology will determine GHG emissions factor of each WWT plant. The values of total TOW of domestic WWT and its projection under the three scenarios are presented in Figure 21. Figure 21 shows that currently more people have access to toilet equipped with septic tank in line with the government programme for the improvement of sanitation and health. However, beyond 2030, it is estimated that the use of septic tank will be reduced by increasing wastewater treated in the centralised (aerobic) system.
Fig ure 21. Total TOW of domestic WWT in Indonesia and its projection
c. Industrial Waste Treatment (Industrial WWT and S olid Waste Treatment) Industrial wastewater treatment is the main source of GHG emissions from the waste sector and it will remain as the main source with 71% in 2030 until 20 50 if the mitigation actions are only the extend of current policy. The emissions are generated from wastewater treatment units of several types of industries, i.e. food and beverage, agro-industries, alcohol refining, petroleum refineries, oleochemical, plastic resins, C PO -based biofuels and other products as listed in IPC C 20 0 6 and refined 2019 Guidelines. Similar with the domestic WWT, the associated GHG emissions generation rate of these industrial WWT units are also influenced by waste characteristics and types of WWT plant technology. The trend of production capacity of each industry and its projection is estimated using data and assumptions from industries, association, statistics of medium and large industries, etc.
The load capacity of industrial WWT and solid waste is estimated with assumptions that the industry is estimated continue to grow in line with the increasing of production capacities of agroindustry, food and beverage, and pulp paper industries. These industries are determined as priority industries, which has priority to continuously developed and expected to grow such as planned in ‘RIPIN’ (Rencana Induk Pembangunan Industri Nasional, National Development Plan of National Manufacturing Industry) during 2015 to 2035. Under RIPIN, the growth rate of manufacturing industry (exclude oil and gas) is estimated to achieve 10.5%. There is no information concerning the growth rate of specific industry, except RIPIN states that there are 8 types of energy intensive to be included for GHG mitigation plans. Therefore, the projection of production capacity of these industries will be included in the estimation and projection of national GHG emissions for the three scenarios.
Figure 22 shows majority of production capacity are food and beverage, agroindustries and petroleum industries, in which C PO is the biggest production industries followed by petroleum refineries, vegetable-fruit-Juice, C PO cooking oil and margarine, vegetable oils, and pulp and paper. The trend of C PO production capacity is estimated to increase in line with increasing demand of C PO for export and domestic consumptions (biofuels, oleo chemicals, foods). The projection of C PO production has considered moratorium of new permit for oil palm plantations, which in turn will limit the production capacity of palm oil and C PO. Each of these industries has their own C OD content, and therefore the TOW is estimated by each type of industries.
Fig ure 22. Production capacity of each type of industry and its projections
Figure 23 presents the trend of TOW of each type of industries and its projections, where C PO production, pulp and paper, and vegetable, fruit and juice industries have bigger TOW compare to other industries due to their wastewater characteristics.
Fig ure 23. TOW of each type of industry and its projections
4.2.3.2. GHG Emission Projection and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 24 shows that GHG emissions level of the waste sector will increase significantly under C POS at the rate of 1.6% per year to achieve 272 Mton C O2e in 20 50 from 198 Mton C O2e in 2030 or with the rate of 2.83% per year during 2010 - 20 50. If it is compared to the GHG emissions level in 2010, the emissions increase 3 times in 20 50. The GHG emissions of the waste sector is primarily generated from industrial waste treatment.
Under TRNS, the GHG emissions level is estimated to increase at the rate 0.6% per year to achieve 223 Mton C O 2e in 20 50 from 198 Mton C O 2e in 2030 or with the rate of 2.33% per year during 2010 -20 50. If it is compared to GHG emission level in 2010, the GHG emissions increases 2.5 times in 20 50.
Under LC C P, the GHG emissions will decrease 2.5% per year from 198 Mton C O 2e in 2030 to 120 Mton C O 2e in 20 50 with the rate of 2.5% per year. If it is compared to the GHG emissions level in 2010, under LC C P the GHG emissions level will be 1.35 times with those in 2010 [6]. Under LC C P, all potential mitigation under C POS and TRNS are maximized by adding several ambitious mitigations, particularly in the MSW and industrial waste treatments.
The GHG emissions intensities under three scenarios are presented in Figure 25. The Figure shows that under LC C P, the GHG emissions intensity is 391 Kg C O 2e per capita in 2010 and is projected to reach the level of 359 Kg C O 2e per capita in 20 50. The GHG emission intensity in 20 50 is reduced about 0.9 times the GHG emissions intensity in 2010 or 0.59 times if it is compared to the GHG emissions intensity in 2030.
Fig ure 24. GHG emissions projection under C POS, TRNS and LC C P
Fig ure 25. GHG emissions and intensity under C POS, TRNS and LC C P
a. Municipal S olid Waste (MS W)
The level of GHG emissions from MSW treatments in 20 50 is expected to be reduced significantly to achieve 32.2 Mton C O 2e under LC C P, while under C POS and TRNS the GHG emission level is accounted to 65.3 Mton C O 2e and 52.1 Mton C O 2e respectively. The GHG emissions projection under LC C P is estimated to be lower than those in C POS and TRNS by implementing mitigation actions through a large share of MSW utilization for energy generation (PLTSa/RDF), which is eff ectively to reduce the GHG emissions. Figure 26 shows the GHG emissions level and its intensity, that the GHG emissions in 20 50 is lower (0.93 times) than those in 2010. Figure 26 also shows the GHG emissions intensities of the three scenarios, in which under LC C P the GHG emissions intensity is reduced 0.66 times from 146 Kg C O 2e per capita to become 96 Kg C O 2e per capita.
Fig ure 26. The projection of GHG emissions level under C POS, TRNS and LC C P
b. Domestic Wastewater Treatment
Government programs to increase the number of septic-tank from 71% in 2020 to 85% in 20 50 for people live in rural and from 88% in 2020 to 99% in 20 50 for people live in urban are implemented in order to increase the access of people to the toilet (individual and communal) could be implemented as mitigation measures by introducing technologies that reduces or lower the GHG emissions.
Under C POS, mitigation under unconditional NDC are extended until 20 50, which include additional septic tank with biogas recovery and sludge removal and implementation of aerobic system. The GHG emission projection under C POS is estimated to achieve 34.1 Mton C O 2e.
Under TRNS and LC C P, more ambitious mitigation mitigation can be deployed to decrease the level of GHG emissions through the additional aerobic septic tank, biodigester septic tank equipped with methane recovery for new toilet/ septic-tank, and centralised WWT for domestic wastewater. Under TRNS, it is assumed that the use of aerobic centralised will increase from 1% of people live in urban in 2020 to 14% in 20 50 while under LC C P it will increase to 36% in 20 50. The GHG emissions projection of these mitigation actions (see Figure 27) has considered the increasing number of people live in urban area toward 20 50, from 57% in 2020 to 70% in 20 50.
Figure 27 shows that GHG emissions level of LC C P can be achieved by a large share of centralised treatment (IPAL) and reducing the non-septic tank. The Figure also shows that under LC C P, the GHG emissions level in 20 50 (25.67 Mton CO2e) is still higher than the GHG emissions level in 2010 (18.07 Mton C O 2e).
Fig ure 27. The projection of GHG emissions level and intensity of Domestic WWT c. Industrial Waste Treatment
Under C POS, GHG emissions can be reduced through the majority of mitigation in several significant GHG emissions contributor industries, i.e. palm oil mills, pulp paper, vegetable-fruit-juice, organic chemicals, and vegetable oil industries. Under TRNS and LC C P, most of wastewater from significant emissions contributor industries will be treated for energy and material sources, such as the use of anaerobic digester equipped with methane gas recovery and utilizing the sludge from WWT unit for energy, compost and materials sources. The GHG emissions level of the three scenarios is presented in Figure 28.
Under LC C P, all of the above mitigation actions are expected to increase significantly. Beyond 2030, mitigation under LC C P are expected to reduce GHG emissions to 62 Mton C O 2e in 20 50. C ompared to the GHG emissions level in 2010 (27 Mton C O 2e), the GHG emissions target under LC C P in 20 50 is
2.3 times to the level in 2010 due to the increasing production capacity of these industries. In 20 50, GHG emission level under C POS and TRNS are estimated to reach 172 Mton C O 2e and 139 Mton C O 2e respectively.
Figure 28 shows that GHG emissions under LC C P is lower than C POS and TRNS due to large share of mitigation in waste treatment of C PO. The GHG emissions intensity of those three scenarios are 514 Kg C O 2e per capita (C POS), 416 Kg C O 2e per capita (TRNS), and 186 Kg C O 2e per capita (LC C P).
Fig ure 28. The projection of GHG emissions level and intensity in industrial waste
4.2.4. Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU)
The GHG emissions sources from activities related to IPPU are from industrial processes, the use of carbonates and GHGs in products, and non-energy uses of fossil fuel carbon. The main GHG emission sources are from industrial processes that chemically or physically transform materials and release carbon dioxide (CO2) during processes, clinker processes in cement industry, blast furnace in iron and steel industry, ammonia and other chemical products that are manufactured from fossil fuels and used as chemical feedstock.
GHG emissions that are resulted from industrial processes are of C O 2 and nitrous oxide (N2O) from nitric acid production, perfluorocarbons (PFC s) as C F4 and C2F6 from aluminium production, while hydrofluorocarbons (HFC s) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) are released during the use of these gases in product, however, HFC s and SF6are not included in these scenarios.
4.2.4.1. Industrial Sector Development Projection
Indonesia considered eight priority industries are related to the GHG emission intensives, namely: cement, metal (iron and steel), pulp paper, ammonium fertilizer, petrochemicals, ceramics, textile and textile product, and food and beverage. Among those industries, cement, basic chemicals (ammonia fertilizer, nitric acid, other petrochemicals), iron and steel making, and metal smelters (nickel, gold, aluminium, and bauxite) are considered as IPPU and energy’s GHG emissions intensives. There are other industries that are not considered as energy or IPPU GHG emission intensives but they have significant GHG emissions from their waste treatments, i.e. food and beverage, pulp and paper, and textiles. Those industries are both domestic and export oriented, which product carbon footprint becomes an important issue. The GHG emissions mitigation from the waste treatment of these industries are discussed in the waste sector.
The priority industries are expected to grow as planned in RIPIN during 2015 to 2035, with the growth rate of national manufacturing industry (exclude oil and gas) is about 10.5%. RIPIN states that there are 8 types of energy intensive that have to be included for GHG emissions mitigation plans from industry sector without information on the growth rate of specific industry. Therefore, the projection of production capacity or product use and the associated GHG emissions use the trend and relevant issues (national or regional GDP and production target).
The GDP growth of manufacturing industry is assumed that beyond 2025 (after C OVID-19 pandemic recovery) will increase to 6% in average per year (slightly higher than national GDP growth projection). The development of manufacturing GDP is estimated based on the gross product structure, which will slightly change with the decreased of secondary industries contribution of secondary industries is estimated to decrease from 51% (2010) to 40% (20 50). The contribution of primary and tertiary industries is estimated to increase from 23% and 25% in 2010 to become 29% and 31% in 20 50 respectively.
The amount of the GHG emissions is influenced by the production capacity of industries that potential in releasing GHG emissions from IPPU related activities. The chemical industries, such as ammonium fertilizer, nitric acids, and other petrochemical industries are expected to continue to grow in line with the population and manufacturing growth.
As an overview, cement industries grew relatively high at the rate of 6.5% per year from 43.0 9 Mton (2010) to 76.2 Mton (2019), while the production capacity has decreased significantly for about 18.9% to 71.8 Mton in 2020 and estimated to be 70.4 Mton in 2021 during C OVID-19 pandemic. However, cement production is expected to continue to grow with average rate 0.6% per year during 2020 2030 to reach 81.6 Mton in 2030 and 0.78% per year during 2030 -20 50 to reach 99.6 Mton in 20 50 in line with economic and infrastructure development outside Java. Ammonia production has increased from 4.8 Mton in 2010 to 5 Mton in 2020 at a rate of 0.4% per year.
In line with the Indonesia’s target to maintain food suff iciency and security, ammonia production is expected to increase with the growth rate of 1% per year to achieve 10.3 Mton in 20 50. Urea production is integrated with ammonia plant, which absorbs C O 2 from ammonia plant as feed stock to produce urea. The urea production has increased from 6.6 Mton (2010) to 9.0 Mton (2020) with growth rate of 3.2% per year. During C OVID-19 pandemic, the production capacity remains high at 9 Mton (2020) and estimated to increase at the rate of 2.4% per year during 2020 -20 50 to achieve 14.7 Mton in 20 50.
Nitric acid industry has significantly increased with the rate of 39.7% per year from 0.032 Mton (2010) to 0.33 Mton (2020). There is an additional new plant in 2022 with a capacity of 9 Mton nitric acid per year since the last nitric acid plants (BBRI) construction is 2012. The development plans of this industry will depend on the additional consumption of nitric acids for fertilizer (NPK) and is projected to grow with a rate at 2% per year (2030 to 20 50). C urrently, Iron and steel industry production capacity is around 15 Mton per year (nickel alloy, carbon steel, and stainless steel), which increased with 12.6% per year from 2010 to 2016 and is estimated relatively stagnant until 2030 and will grow 5.59% per year from 5.76 Mton in 2030 to 17.1 Mton in 20 50. Using these assumptions and trend of production growth in some significant industries, the projection of GHG emissions intensive industries is estimated.
Figure 29a shows trend of production growth and its projection while the historical data of production capacity and its projection of each GHG emissions intensive industry are presented in Figure 29b. It shows that manufacturing production per capita tends to increase.
Fig ure 29a. The g rowth rate of production capacity (historical and projection)
Fig ure 29b. Industry’s production capacity and product used
4.2.4.2. GHGs Emission Projections
Figure 30 shows the GHG emissions level for type of industries related to IPPU under three scenarios while the GHG emissions intensity is shown in Figure 31. Under C POS, it is assumed that mitigation actions include (a) 50% of national cement productions implement blended cement with a clinker/cement ratio of 0.75 in 20 50 and (b) 38% of national ammonia production using advanced technology with natural gas consumption at a rate of 40 GJ per ton NH 3 in 20 50. Under this scenario, the trend of GHG emissions will continue to increase by 1.7% per year during 2010 -20 50 to reach 70 Mton of C O 2e in 20 50. The level of GHG emissions in 20 50 is still high at 2 times the level of GHG emissions in 2010.
Under TRNS, it is assumed that mitigation actions include (a) significant increase of cement production using blended cement technology with a clinker/cement ratio 0.75 in 20 50, (b) the additional of ammonia production using advanced and eff icient technology with natural gas consumption at a rate of 40 GJ per ton NH 3 in 20 50, (c) the use of secondary catalyst for N2O digestion/destruction in nitric acid production industry, (d) the use of improved (advanced) processing technology for Aluminium production[7], and (e) the utilization of scrap up to 10% as raw material in iron and steel industries. Under this scenario, the trend of GHG emissions will continue to increase by 1.6% per year during 2010 -20 50 to reach 66 Mton of C O 2e in 20 50 which is 1.9 times the level of GHG emissions in 2010.
Under LC C P, it is assumed that mitigation actions include (a) significant increasing of cement production using blended cement technology with clinker/cement ratio of 0.70 in 20 50, (b) increasing ammonia production using advanced and eff icient technology with natural gas consumption at a rate of 35 GJ per ton NH 3 in 20 50, (c) increasing the use of secondary catalyst for N2O digestion/destruction in nitric acid production industry ((higher than those in TRNS), (d) the use of improved (advanced processing technology for Aluminium production, and (e) the use of scrap up to 20% (higher than those in TRNS) as raw material in iron and steel industries but it is limited by the availability of the scrap materials.
Under this scenario, although GHG emissions are estimated to continue increasing at a rate of 0.9% per year (2010 -20 50) to reach 50.2 Mton C O 2e in 20 50 or 0.9 times the level of GHG emissions in 2010.
Fig ure 30. IPPU GHG emissions development and projections of C POS, TRNS and LC PP
Figure 31 presents the GHG emissions intensity as per ton product and per capita, which are compared with the GHG emissions intensity per ton product for those three scenarios.
Fig ure 31. GHG emissions per ton product and capita and its projections
4.2.4.4. Mitigation Strategy
a. Blended Cement in Cement Industry
The GHG emissions from cement industry was aff ected by the clinker to cement ratio. At the clinker to cement ratio is 0.81 in 2010, the GHG emissions from cement production is 0.445 ton C O 2 per ton cementitious while for the clinker to cement ratio is 0.75, from cement production is 0.419 ton C O 2 per ton cementitious.
Blended cement mitigation under C POS are the extend of clinker to cement ratio in 50% of cement production capacities at the level of clinker to cement ratio of 0.75 to 20 50. Under TRNS, blended cement mitigation under C POS is increased by implementing clinker to cement ratio of 0.75 from 2030 to 20 50 for most cement productions. Under LC PP, blended cement mitigation are increased by implementing clinker to cement ratio up to 0.70 for most cement productions in 2030 to 20 50.
b. Technolog y Improvement of New Ammonia Urea Plants
The ammonia plant technology is improved from 45 GJ/ton NH 3 to 40 GJ/ton NH 3 of natural gas consumption. The improved technology can be eff icient ammonia plant and/or eff icient urea in absorbing C O 2.
Under C POS, it is assumed that 38% of most ammonia productions consume natural gas at the rate of 40 GJ/ton NH 3 in 20 50. Under TRNS, mitigation under C POS are increased by implementing more improved technology therefore most ammonia productions consume natural gas at the rate of 40 GJ/ton NH 3 in 20 50. Under LC C P, the natural gas consumption in the most plant should at least have natural gas consumption rate of 36.6 GJ natural gas /ton NH 3 or at least Best Practice Technology (BPT) in 20 50.
It should be noted that current world BPT has natural gas consumption rate of 32 GJ/ton NH 3 while the European best available technology (BAT) has 31.8 GJ/ ton NH3, the world BAT has 28 GJ/ton NH 3 (IEA, 2015), and some of ammonia plants in Indonesia have 33-35 GJ/ton NH 3.
c. S econdary C atalyst for N 2O Destruction in Nitric Acid Industry
The profile of Indonesian nitric acid industries shows a significant increase in the production capacity with two additional new plants in 2012 and one plant in 2022 (see Figure 30). In line with this increasing production capacities, N2O emissions from the nitric acid production is also increased (see Figure 30). These new plants use more eff icient technology with GHG emissions factor (EF) of about 8 to 9 Kg N2O per ton HNO 3, compared to the first production plants (1990’s technology) with the EF was 10 -19 Kg N2O per ton HNO 3.
One of the two new technologies is also equipped with mitigation technology, i.e. non-selective catalyst reduction (NSC R) for N2O emissions destruction. With this mitigation technology, the EF decreased to 2.5 Kg N2O per ton HNO 3. Other selective catalytic process, e.g. secondary catalyst reduction (SC R) will also be applied as secondary mitigation for the N2O emissions destruction in nitric acids productions in 2022, with the EF decreased to 2.5 Kg N2O per ton HNO 3.
The deployment potential for future mitigation is relatively small due to high cost, therefore, this mitigation will be deployed under the LC C P.
d. Improvement of Aluminium Processing Technolog y
Improving the aluminium production plant with an advanced technology that could reduce PFC s (C F4/C 2F6) emissions has been implemented, i.e. reducing the Anode Eff ect (AE) at smelter facilities. AE is a condition where the stress in the reduction furnace suddenly increases when the dissolved alumina level in the smelting furnace is far below normal. Since its operation in 1982, the smelter used C WPB (centre work pre-bake cell technology, with bar brake). AE reduction is achieved by replacing software and hardware, and incorporating a new algorithm in the control system so that reduces AE frequency, duration, and over voltage. This mitigation is planned to be deployed in the aluminium industry for additional mitigation potential in 20 50 under TRNS and LC C P. By maintaining this mitigation technology, in 20 50, PFC emissions level under TRNS and LC C P can be reduced from 577 Kton C O 2e (C POS) to 462 Kton C O 2e.
4.3. Economy Impact of Mitigation
The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/C omputable General Equilibrium (AIM/ C GE) was used to analyse economy impact of mitigation action in 20 50. The model was designed under diff erent sets of development scenarios to estimate greenhouse gas emission and its economy impact related to the changes in land use and energy under the scenarios. Data base for modelling is Input Output Table year 2010 that consist of 46 sectors. Economic growth assumption has been adjusted with pandemic C OVID-19 impact that slowing down economy during 2020-2025.
Three mitigation scenarios (C POS, TRNS and LC C P) are assessed at given GHG emission levels, land use, and renewable power generation targets. Table 2 shows mitigation actions in both AFOLU and energy sector, where less ambitious mitigation available in 2020 and ambitious mitigation available in 2025.
Table 2. Assumptions of mitig ation under C POS, TRNS, and LC C P
S ector | Mitig ation |
CPOS | TRNS | LC C P |
AFOLU | Increase of crop productivity, production index, land conservation. | - | Higher increase of crop productivity, production index, higher target in land conservation. |
Energy | Less ambitious in energy sector: increase energy eff iciency, renewable energy. There is no transformation in energy system. | Moderate ambitious in energy sector: increase energy eff iciency, renewable energy. Transformation in energy sector focusing in power generation. | Ambitious in energy sector: increase eff iciency, renewable energy, C C S/ C C US adoption after 2030. Transformation in energy sector focusing in transportation and power generation. |
Figure 32 and Figure 33 shows that under all scenarios of C POS, TRNS and LC C P, positive economic growth under emission reduction target can be achieved. Under higher additional investment to support mitigation action, macroeconomic loss will be less under the stringent GHG reduction (LC C P).
Indonesia GDP under C POS will reach USD 3,316 billion in 20 50 with average growth 5.04%. Meanwhile, average GDP growth under TRNS (5.02% ) and LC C P slightly lower (5%) and reach USD 3,282 billion and USD 3,262 billion in 20 50. The economy impact of mitigation in both AFOLU and the energy sector will be higher by including co-benefit opportunities for reducing both greenhouse and other health-damaging pollution.
Similarly, there are increase of welfare GDP under all scenarios. Indonesia will become high income country where GDP per capita increase from USD 2,983 in 2010 to USD 10,039 under C POS, USD 9,935 under TRNS, and USD 9,876 under LC C P in 20 50.
Fig ure 32. Impact of mitig ation pathways to GDP under C POS, TRNS, and LC C P
Fig ure 33. Impact mitig ation pathways to GDP/capita under C POS, TRNS, and LC C P
The important factors to maintain economic growth under emission reduction target are consumption and investment. C onsumption has the highest contribution to total GDP of Indonesia. Average growth of household consumption are 5.61% under C POS, slightly higher of 5.62% under TRNS and 5.6% under LC C P. In 20 50, total consumption will reach USD 2,249 billion under C POS, USD 2,254 billion under TRNS and USD 2,240 billion under LC C P (see Figure 34). Meanwhile, average growth of government expenditure is 3.28% under C POS, slightly higher of 3.31% under TRNS and 3.29% under LC C P. Government expenditure in 20 50 will reach USD 160.7 billion under C POS, USD 162.1 billion under TRNS and USD 161.2 billion under LC C P (see Figure 35).
2,500
| | 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | CPOS | 395 | 361 | 463 | 621 | 781 | 1,089 | 1,409 | 1,826 | 2,249 | TRNS | 395 | 361 | 463 | 603 | 761 | 1,069 | 1,389 | 1,818 | 2,254 | LCCP | 395 | 361 | 463 | 603 | 761 | 1,067 | 1,389 | 1,813 | 2,240 |
|
Fig ure 34. Household consumption under C POS, TRNS, and LC C P
Fig ure 35. Government expenditure under C POS, TRNS, and LC C P
In all scenarios, transformation technology is important to increase production under emission reduction target. Investment in AFOLU sector is important to increase productivity such as for mechanisation, agricultural inputs, land management and research and development. Meanwhile, additional investment also needed in energy sector for technology adoption to increase energy eff iciency and adopt C C S/C C US technology. Growth of investment is essential during 2020 -20 50 in C POS, TRNS, and LC C P by annual average 4.38%, 4.14% and 4.13%, respectively. Total investment in 20 50 are USD 821.5 billion under C POS, USD 749.5 billion under TRNS and USD 745.8 billion under LC C P (see Figure 36). Moreover, higher emission reduction target requires higher growth in additional investment of 5.8% per year for C POS and 8.2% per year for TRNS and LC C P. In 20 50, additional investment will reach USD 39.7 billion under C POS, USD 73.4 billion under TRNS and USD 73.3 billion under LC C P (see Figure 37).
900.0
| | 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2010 | | 2015 | | 2020 | | 2025 | | 2030 | | 2035 | | 2040 | | 2045 | | 2050 | CPOS | 230.4 | | 176.5 | | 221.9 | | 273.4 | | 383.9 | | 461.2 | | 568.8 | | 670.5 | | 821.5 | TRNS | 230.4 | | 176.5 | | 221.9 | | 273.4 | | 374.3 | | 441.3 | | 535.3 | | 621.1 | | 749.5 | LCCP | 228.5 | | 181.3 | | 221.9 | | 273.4 | | 373.6 | | 438.7 | | 533.2 | | 618.9 | | 745.8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|
Fig ure 36. Investment under C POS, TRNS, and LC C P
Fig ure 37. Additional investment under C POS, TRNS, and LC C P
Positive economic growth in all scenarios will lead to higher labour absorption. Growth of employment under three scenarios are positive of 0.61% for C POS, 0.64% for TRNS and 0.62% for LC C P. In 20 50, total employment will reach 138 million people under C POS, 139.6 million people under TRNS, and 138.4 million people under LC C P (see Figure 38). A sustainable and low-carbon economy that includes renewable energy will create more employment in Indonesia. Agriculture, forestry, manufacturing and construction are primary industries for the creation of a significant number of green jobs. Green jobs in agriculture include organic method, soil conservation and sustainable forest, manufacturing include labour intensive manufacturing process, and construction sector include development of energy-eff icient building (heating, ventilation, lighting).
Fig ure 38. Employment under C POS, TRNS, and LC C P