Chapter 1. Introduction 

Sri Lanka submitted its initial NDCs in September 2016 as a country that ratified the Paris Agreement. In 2020, the Climate Change Secretariat began a process of updating the NDCs to be submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change prior to the 26^th Conference of Parties.  

The updated NDCs represent a more ambitious, quantified, and robust assessment of the mitigation potential and adaptation measures for the next decade (2021-2030) informed by up-to-date analysis, improved information and data, and an extensive stakeholder consultation process. These NDCs present new evidence on Sri Lanka’s climate vulnerability, based on a recent analysis. Further, the NDCs present opportunities that have emerged through development partner-supported initiatives on lowcarbon development pathways for key sectors such as power, transport, industry, waste, agriculture and forestry. They spell out urgent financial, technology transfer, and capacity building requirements, in line with Article 2 of the Paris Agreement, to fully adopt a resilient and low-carbon development pathway to upper-middle-income status. 

These NDCs are fully integrated into the country’s sustainable development vision and are underpinned by policy targets in the national policy framework ‘Vistas of Prosperity and Splendor’ envisioned by His Excellency Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the President of Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka. The National Climate Change Policy of Sri Lanka (2012) describes the national commitment as “Adaptation to and mitigation of climate change impacts within the framework of sustainable development”. The recently developed National Policy and Strategy for Sustainable Development (Draft) has adopted a policy goal of achieving ‘national commitments on climate change, while ensuring adaptation to and mitigation of climate change impacts’. 

To support NDC implementation and monitoring in 2016, Sri Lanka prepared a Readiness Plan 20162019, which detailed out actions to facilitate pre-requirements for achieving the NDCs. This Plan was reviewed at Annual Steering Committee Meetings that convened the key sectors contributing to mitigation, adaptation and loss and damages. To achieve the NDCs, relevant sector agencies at the national and sub-national levels are expected to embed NDCs into the regular development planning framework. This will ensure that mitigation and adaptation priorities are reflected in and integrated into workplans, annual budgets and donor proposals of these agencies.  

Sri Lanka’s NDCs are expected to be supported by external assistance, public funds, and private sector investment. Sri Lanka will prioritize adaptation needs and resilience-building activities, focusing on key sectors -agriculture, livestock, fisheries, water, health, biodiversity, coastal and marine, urban planning and human settlements, and tourism. For Sri Lanka, focusing on adaptation is critical to ensure that development investments are not eroded by constant exposure to climate extremes and that the country remains on track to achieve its ambitions of economic growth and human prosperity. Investments in mitigation will be prioritized based on emission intensities and the economic, social or environmental co-benefits derived from these actions. 

As a global citizen, Sri Lanka recognizes its responsibility to uphold the Paris Agreement’s objective of containing global warming. It will strive to steer development, especially post-Covid economic recovery and livelihood needs, along a low-emission trajectory that supports both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, with a strong focus on reaching high income and human development in the next decade. Therefore, Sri Lanka reaches out to the global community for technical, financial and additional capacity needs outlined in Chapter 9 for effective NDC implementation and to keep the country on a low carbon trajectory as it strives for greater economic and social well-being of its people. 

1.1 Country Context 

An island nation of 65,610 square-kilometers and a population of 21.8^[3] million, Sri Lanka is fairly densely populated, especially in the urbanized and industrialized south-western coastline of the country.  Situated in the humid tropics at 7° North of the Equator, Sri Lanka receives an average of 1860 mm rainfall annually, amounting to approximately 122 billion cubic meters of water. However, rainfall varies regionally between 5500mm in the central hills to around 950mm in the coastal plains of the northwestern and southeastern ends. Mean annual temperature varies between 24°C-31°C in the plains and 18°C-27°C in the mountainous region. Annual rainfall is spread over four seasons- two monsoons and two inter-monsoons. 

For a country of its size, Sri Lanka has a complex climatology giving rise to over 45 agro-climatic zones. However, for general purposes the country is divided into three main climatic zones defined by rainfall - the Wet Zone, in the rain-rich southwestern quarter, the Intermediate Zone separating it from an extensive Dry Zone in the north, north-central and eastern plains. The plains surrounding the coast give way to a central mountainous region that rise to over 2,000 m above sea level. The country claims a marine economic zone nearly twenty times its land area- however this resource is least exploited economically. 

A diverse topography and varied tropical climate have given rise to extremely high levels of faunal and floral diversity, and high rates of endemicity. Around 30% of the country’s land is protected by law as sanctuaries, reserves and national parks. This biodiversity supports a considerable economic benefit through tourism, fisheries, traditional medicine, and provides unaccounted for ecosystem services such as water, aesthetic beauty, climate amelioration and soil conditioning. Threats to biodiversity from the changing climate have not been studied adequately but early research illustrate the significant impact on endemic taxa like fishes, amphibians and reptiles, and drastic changes in coastal habitats such as corals, sea grasses and lagoons. 

Sri Lanka is classified as a lower-middle-income country and its economy is largely dependent on services such as shipping, tourism, aviation etc. Services accounted for 58.2% of Sri Lanka's economy in 2019 up from 54.6% in 2010, industry 27.4% up from 26.4% a decade earlier and agriculture declined to 7.4%.  Despite a competitive export orientation, especially tea and spices, agriculture has declined in economic importance, despite still employing 30% of the workforce. There are around 2 million farmers and a majority of them are small-scale, cultivating less than 1ha. Successive governments have invested in agriculture and expanding irrigation; however, climate change is already adversely impacting on food security and livelihoods and export revenues. Due to prolonged drought in the tea-growing districts, tea yields in 2020 dropped to a 30-year low. Over one million farmers were impacted by flood events in 2016 and 2017. Sri Lanka is currently ranked 66/113 on the Global Food Security Index (2019), while the FAO estimates that 4.1 million out of the 21 million population (over 25% of the population) do not have nutritious food to maintain healthy lives. Child malnutrition, denoted by high rates of stunting and wasting among children, presents a development challenge. These will be exacerbated by predicted climate change. 

Sri Lanka has an impressive track record of tackling poverty. The overall poverty rate is 4.1%^[4] showing commendable progress from 20 years ago (28.8% in 2000). However, there is wide disparity in poverty incidence; districts characterized by low population density, low service penetration and largely agriculture-dependent display much higher rates of poverty (Moneragala, Mullaitivu, Nuwara Eliya and Batticaloa). These districts display higher vulnerability to climate change due to enhanced sensitivity to climatic parameters and lower capacity to withstand climate hazards. In Sri Lanka, a considerable percentage live just above the poverty line. The World Bank assessed in 2015 that one in four people live on less than $2.50 per day. This population is negatively affected by economic or climatic shocks, and their ability to recover and resume livelihoods is compromised by lack of safety nets and savings. 

Sri Lanka’s vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated further by the fact that the majority of its population live in rural areas and continue to engage in small- scale farming, fisheries or are employed in the agricultural value chain. Sri Lanka’s low urbanization has contributed in no small measure to its overall low-emission growth trajectory. However, this rural lifestyle is increasingly threatened by extreme weather events and anomalies related to the regular monsoon pattern around which the rural economy is organized.  

Sri Lanka’s unemployment is low. However, both labour force participation (52.3%) and the contribution of women to the formal labour force (34%) are low for a middle-income country. Unemployment among more educated youth is high (11% in 2019) displaying a widening gap between education attainment and employable skills. Women have higher educational attainment and are more likely to complete 13 years of formal schooling. The investments in free schooling and human capital development through vocational and tertiary education have created a literate and young workforce that can benefit from technologically advanced, green jobs. A high level of Information Communication Technology (ICT) penetration and mobile phone usage in Sri Lanka also provides impetus to this opportunity to provide more gainful employment and environmentally friendly livelihood opportunities, especially for youth living in remote rural areas. 

The Covid-19 pandemic has significantly impacted Sri Lanka’s economy. Lockdowns, travel restrictions and border closing to manage multiple waves of the disease with increasing ferocity and mortality, have depressed the economy and forced the government to offer lifelines to keep vital sectors afloat. This includes tourism, manufacturing, transportation and remittances from expatriate workers. Products that had good global demand during the pandemic- like tea and coconut- were impacted by drought and low production. 2020 recorded negative economic growth and there is a strong impetus to spur on growth and incentivize domestic production. The government committed to a green development framework around the key environmental issues that impact Sri Lanka. Such policies, if backed with fiscal incentives and technical assistance, can direct recovery efforts towards greater sustainability. There are some concrete areas of investment Sri Lanka could potentially consider during post-Covid recovery situation, which have been discussed during the NDC revision process. These are; 

• Ensuring domestic food production systems -agriculture and fisheries- are climate-sensitive and environmentally sustainable;  
• Incentives for women to engage in agriculture productivity and food security efforts;  
• Promoting efficient water management and irrigation systems; 
• Enhancing the capacity of the health sector including digitization of services and sustainable health/hospital waste management; 
• Enabling policies and incentives for renewable energy, energy efficiency, waste management, green industry and transportation initiatives etc. to reduce GHG emissions;  
• Diversify the economy to generate multiple co-benefits to address the severe negative impacts of Covid-19 on livelihood especially to the tourism sector. 

Chapter 2: National Vision and Responses to Climate Change 

In response to challenges posed by climate change, Sri Lanka has taken several steps by introducing national policies, strategies and actions such as the National Climate Change Policy of Sri Lanka (2012), National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sri Lanka in 2010, the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) for climate change impacts in Sri Lanka (2016), Technology Needs Assessment and Technology Action Plans for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation (2014), Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) for energy, and Climate Change Sector Vulnerability Profiles (2010)  in order to address climate change-induced impacts. 

Sri Lanka’s climate change and national sustainable development-related policies seek to mainstream climate change into key sectors such as power, urban planning, waste, transport, industry, coastal and marine, forestry, water, health, tourism and recreation, biodiversity, agriculture, livestock and fisheries. Some of these sectors have already integrated climate change risks and commitments. Importantly, National Energy Policy & Strategies of Sri Lanka (2019) and Long-Term Electricity Generation Expansion Plan 2018-2037, the National Policy on Waste Management (2019), the National Policy on Sustainable Consumption and Production for Sri Lanka (2019), Coastal Zone and Coastal Resource Management  Plan 2018, National REDD+ Investment Framework and Action Plan (NRIFAP) 2017, Strategic Action Plan for Adaptation of Irrigation and Water Resources Sector for Climate Change 

2018, National Policy on Natural Gas (2019), National Policy on Disaster Management (2013), Sri Lanka Disaster Management Plan 2018-2030, Overarching Agriculture Policy (under revision) have integrated climate change impacts and mitigation measures; and has spelt out strategies for lowemission development. The power sector has recorded some impressive developments in mobilising private investments into renewable energy expansion in recent years. Attractive feed-in tariff rates, solar net-metering and net accounting, attractive financing for solar rooftop expansion, energy efficiency labelling for certain appliances and phasing out incandescent lighting have resulted in a proliferation of renewable energy to the grid and reducing energy demand.  

Sri Lanka’s conditional NDCs for GHG mitigation will require extensive international support to be realized. In the next ten years, Sri Lanka will seek climate financing and technology transfer support towards exploiting more renewable energy resources, expanding energy storage systems and upgrading its electricity distribution network, efficient and effective waste to energy systems, modernizing public transportation, upgrading its road and railway network etc. Meanwhile, the Government of Sri Lanka has taken multiple measures to address climate vulnerability and the impacts of weather-related hazards on lives and livelihoods. These include investments in developing/fortifying the eroding coastline, expanding irrigation and trans-basin diversions to moderate drought, develop meteorological capacity and early warning capacity for floods/landslides. Resettlement of communities living in landslide and flood-prone areas is on-going. Disaster exposure and by extension climate-related vulnerability is increasingly being factored into the design and implementation of development projects such as roads, reservoirs and new settlements, however often the full range of mitigatory measures is both financially and technologically challenging for a developing country.  

Chapter 3: NDC Revision Process 

The NDC review process was launched in 2020 through the Climate Change Secretariat of the Ministry of Environment. UNDP’s support to the process was obtained through a global project named Climate Promise that sought to support 100 countries to upgrade their climate change ambitions in 2020 ahead of COP 26. This support was launched in February 2020. Working groups consisting of experts and professionals were established for each sector under mitigation and adaptation, while the loss and damage discussion was co-led by the Disaster Management Centre and the Climate Change Secretariat.  

As a first step, desk reviews of the 2016 NDCs were undertaken by national consultants based on available materials including national policy documents, sectoral master plans, National Adaptation Plan for Climate Change (2016-2025), Technology Needs Assessment for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation, and the draft Third National Communication (TNC) including the inventory of greenhouse gases prepared for the TNC. The findings were verified through discussions with technical working groups for each sector. For efficiency, the NDCs built upon recent discussions and analysis of climate risks and vulnerability, including those completed for the Third National Communication (draft),and Climate Change Risk in Sri Lanka – Sector Risk Profile (draft), Marginal Abatement Cost Curves analysis for energy, Low-Carbon Development Strategy (draft), National Disaster Management Plan (draft) and National REDD+ Investment Framework and Action Plan.  

Due to restrictions on physical meetings imposed to control the spread of Covid-19 through MarchMay 2020, virtual meetings and discussions were held with all working groups and the core NDC team. 

The draft NDCs were then presented to wider groups of stakeholders (by sector) from July to September 2020 when restrictions were relaxed enabling physical meetings and discussions. 

Separate discussions with lead sectoral agencies/Ministries were held to understand the development priorities, institutional structures, public finance availability and financing and capacity needs for NDCs in each sector. Detailed implementation plans will be prepared for each sector with clearly identified actions/sub-actions, targets and responsible agencies. These will be integrated, as fully as possible, into the regular planning cycles of these sectors ensuring smooth delivery. Finally, an assessment of the cost of achieving NDCs in order to develop a financing strategy has been commissioned. The Financing Strategy will be communicated to the international community as an addendum to the NDCs. 

Figure 3. 1: NDC Revision Process 

Chapter 4: Mitigation NDCs 

4.1 Climate Change Mitigation in Sri Lanka 

As described in Chapter 1 and 2, Sri Lanka’s economic and human development has been largely ‘lowcarbon’ aided by decades of public investment in education and health, non-reliance on energy-intensive heavy industry for economic growth and continued exploitation of indigenous energy sources such as wind, hydro, solar and biomass. The country is recognized as a rare global example of how human wellbeing and economic prosperity can be decoupled from carbon-intensive development and lifestyles.^[5] However, there is room for further GHG reduction while continuing an upward development trajectory. Therefore, these NDCs present an increased ambition for GHG reduction (over the initial NDC in 2016) generated largely through improved target setting in six sectors; electricity (power; electricity generation and end-use), transport, industry, waste, forestry, agriculture (including livestock).  Mitigation actions with high GHG abatement potential and closely aligned with sustainable development objectives of the country have been prioritised for implementation over the period 2021 to 2030.  

To develop these NDCs, Sri Lanka’s policies and strategies on the above six sectors were reviewed along with the National Environment Policy, National Climate Change Policy, National Policy for Sustainable Development (draft) and National Policy for Sustainable Consumption & Production. In general, low-carbon and energy-efficient practices, circular economy concepts and promotion of GHG sinks by improving forest/tree cover are supported through the above policy directions. In the past five years, Sri Lanka has taken several proactive steps, introduced policy instruments and financial incentives to develop a low-carbon pathway. 

The power sector, for example, has enabled private investment in renewable energy by supportive policy instruments such as feed-in tariffs, net-metering and net-accounting. Energy efficiency has been incentivised by high energy rates rationalising consumption, Time-of-Use (TOU) billing etc. and supported through financial incentives to replace incandescent lighting with LED in a short timeframe. Waste-to-energy investments and waste composting measures in key municipalities have substantially increased managed waste in urban areas. Regulatory restrictions and environmental considerations have forced large-scale waste producers- such as livestock farms, hotels- to invest on in-site waste treatment and management. 

Industry has embraced energy efficiency, circular economy concepts and cleaner production. Some larger industrial production facilities are now going for ‘carbon-neutrality’ for marketing advantage and sustainability. The sector pledged to adopt ‘green or eco’ concepts when investing in new industrial parks. 

The transport sector has seen a modal shift from public to private which is in keeping with middleincome development aspirations. Significant investments are lined up to upgrade passenger transport systems including the long ailing railway and expressway network, introduce modern conveyance systems in congested urban centres and promote more hybrid and electric vehicles among private users.  

4.2 Unconditional and Conditional Policy Responses 

Sri Lanka interprets unconditional policy responses as those actions that have been identified in national plans and programmes, prioritised for domestic investments (public and private) which can be implemented with domestic capacity. These actions amount to 4.0%^[6] of GHG emissions reduction with respective to BAU scenario for the period 2021-2030.   

Conditional policy responses require external support including financing, technology transfer, and capacity building. Many conditional NDCs are constrained by their lack of market readiness (economic viability) and immaturity of the technology.  Conditional NDCs form the majority of the actions described in the following sectors. These actions are important for long-term course-change in key sectors; –power, transport, industry, waste, forestry, agriculture & livestock- towards low-carbon pathways. Sri Lanka is keen to propel its growth towards upper middle-income status by enabling better rural services, improving liveability and efficiency in urban areas and encouraging the growth of services and manufacturing, especially of value-added agricultural products. In this background, conditional NDCs have been framed around an analysis that presents the country’s commitment to maintaining its trajectory of low-emission growth with international financial and technical assistance. These conditional NDC actions account for additional 10.5%⁷ of GHG emissions reduction  respective to the BAU scenario for the period 2021-2030.   

4.3 Implementing and Monitoring Mitigation NDCs  

NDCs will be ‘projectized’ into fundable actions and further developed for private sector investments, public financing through the Government’s budget or through international funding agencies by developing proposals for climate financing. This process will involve detailed feasibility of the actions themselves, a thorough analysis of the sustainable development co-benefits and financing options. This process presents the opportunity to conduct detailed gender and social analyses of the actions and propose any mitigatory steps to overcome risks. Gender and sustainable development co-benefit analysis is mandatorily required in Sri Lanka’s national planning project format.⁸ Environmental and social impact assessments will be carried out as required for the larger projects that involve land conversion or infrastructures.  

Around 40 mitigation actions classified under the six sectors mentioned above contribute to Sri Lanka’s total GHG emissions reduction target. However, there will be further GHG emissions reduction from unquantified mitigation actions which cannot be quantified due to lack of baseline and emissions reduction potential information at present. These GHG emission mitigation potentials and actual achievements will be accounted and communicated in the future after baseline data and necessary sectorial MRV mechanisms are fully established with necessary internal and external support. Further, there are certain adaptation actions described in Chapter 5 that contribute to GHG emissions reduction. The emissions reduction from climate adaptation actions in sectors such as livestock, tourism, and urban settlements, have not been accounted for in the overall GHG emission calculations presented above. Hence these mitigation benefits will be additional to Sri Lanka’s total emissions reduction target. 

4.4 Sectoral Mitigation NDCs 

4.4.1 Electricity (Power) Sector 

Sri Lanka has achieved nearly 100% electrification for all potential users of the country -barring a few isolated communities. The total installed power generation capacity in 2019 was 4,217 MW, of which around 50% consists of renewable energy including large and small hydro, wind, solar, and biomass. The rest is generated through coal and oil-based thermal power. Sri Lanka’s annual electricity demand was approximately 14,611 GWh in 2019.  Around 35% of this demand was met by renewable energy resources in 2019.  The demand for electricity is expected to grow by 5% annually and future electricity generation expansion programs are expected to meet this demand growth.

Sri Lanka has taken several recent initiatives to implement sustainable energy programmes. Key principles in the Energy Policy (2019) guides the country to further develop indigenous renewable energy sources to the optimum level, diversify the generation mix and minimise dependence on imported fossil fuels. It is stated that renewable energy sources should be developed considering resource potential, economics, maturity of technology and quality of supply. These initiatives are expected to bring renewable energy based power generation to the fore-front, with a target of realizing 70% electricity generation using renewable energy sources by 2030.  

Future Outlook and GHG Emissions Reduction Potential in Electricity (Power) Sector: National Energy Policy (2019) primarily focuses on ensuring energy security, equity, and sustainability of the energy supply. As it is essential to maintain a regular power supply with a practical and a balanced energy mix, the firm capacity should be maintained with Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) or indigenous natural gas, high-efficient coal power, large storage hydro, furnace oil refined from national refinery and non-conventional renewable energy sources^[7] which can provide the firm/ base power requirement. Aligning with the Vistas of Prosperity and Splendour, significant growth in increasing power generation through wind, solar, hydro and biomass is expected. In addition, Demand Side Management (DSM) activities, and transmission and distribution loss reduction activities will support emissions reduction. Furthermore, converting existing fuel oil-based combined cycle power plants to natural gas and introducing new natural gas-based power plants will support emissions reduction efforts, contributing to NDCs. 

Furthermore, no new coal power plant addition is expected for the future, and converting existing fuel oil based combined cycle power plants to natural gas and introducing new natural gas based power plants will support emission reduction efforts, contributing to NDCs. The long-term target of the power sector is to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, based on which the National Energy Policy & Strategies has been framed. 

Key interventions envisaged for GHG emissions reduction up to the year 2030: 

• Development of hydro-power base to its maximum potential through new large and small hydro-power plants amounting to around 300 MW. 
• Develop approximately 800MW of wind power generation in Northern and North-Western coastal areas of the island. 
• Develop approximately 2,000 MW of solar power capacity using different modalities such as solar rooftops, small scale, and large solar PV power plants.   
• Power generation through biomass and municipal solid waste will also be added with an expectation of a reasonable contribution to power generation. 
• Facilitate the implementation of pilot-scale projects using new renewable energy sources that have not yet reached commercial maturity and other grid supporting infrastructures including behind the meter (BtM) and grid-scale energy storage solutions to assist more renewable energy integration. 
• Pursue Pumped Storage Hydro Power Plant development to accommodate higher level of intermittent and weather-dependent renewable energy to the power generation system. 
• Continue the loss reduction initiatives of the transmission and distribution network. 
• Convert existing fuel oil-based combined cycle power plants to use natural gas and to develop new natural gas plants as an alternative to planned coal power plants (depending on infrastructure availability for natural gas). 
• Implement Demand Side Management activities through a five-year national Energy Efficiency Improvement and Conservation (EEI&C) programme.  
• Introduce policy supportive measures such as tax benefits, low-interest financing, etc. to expedite the implementation of renewable energy development and energy efficiency improvement programmes.  
• Engage in viable carbon trading mechanisms to promote the shift towards clean energy sources. 

In order to achieve NDCs, activities have been identified (Table 4.4.1); some are quantifiable while others, though not quantifiable, are supportive and essential for effective implementation¹⁰.  Table 4.4.1: NDCs in Electricity (Power) Sector

¹⁰ When determining the NDC activities, the unconditional targets were declared based on the financial and technical capability already available in the country. Targets that require external financial and technical support to supplement the domestic capacity are declared as conditional targets. External technical and financial supports are vital factors for the successful accomplishment of these goals, which renders them as conditional 

¹¹It should be noted that, conditional target in above NDC Action 1 is based on interim results of ongoing national planning exercises, which shall be validated subjected to grid limitations such as operational flexibility, system stability, etc. In achieving this conditional target, grid reinforcement measures and enabling technologies such as energy storage shall be required ¹²Power generation through sustainable biomass resources 

It is expected that the implementation of updated NDCs will result in GHG emissions reduction against BAU scenario by 25% in the electricity sector (5% unconditionally and 20% conditionally) equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of 9,819,000 MT unconditionally and 39,274,000 MT conditionally (total of 49,093,000 MT) of carbon dioxide equivalent during the period of 2021-2030^[8] (Figure 4.4.1).  

Figure 4.4.1: Emission reduction projections in Electricity (Power) Sector 

4.4.2 Transportation Sector 

Road transportation is dominant over the railway, air, and sea modalities in Sri Lanka. The present active vehicle fleet of Sri Lanka is around 6.7 million^[9], of which 54% are motorcycles, 16% are threewheelers (motor tricycles), 11% motor cars, and 1% buses. Despite investments and attempts to improve public transportation options, the quality and availability of public transportation are yet below expectation. This and rising per capita income have resulted in a gradual decrease in passengers using public transportation and an increase in private vehicles. In turn, there is increased traffic congestion, a reduction in fuel economy, and higher emissions. All fuel for transport is imported. Although Sri Lanka adopts Euro 4 emission standards and continues with the vehicle emission testing programme, the considerable share of inefficient vehicles in operation leads to higher GHG emissions.    

The increase in private vehicle use in urban areas has increased traffic congestion, road accidents and air pollution, and in turn impacts the economy, environment, and society. High dependence on road transport, as against railways or water-based transport modes, tend to increase total energy consumption and air pollution. Though Sri Lanka Railway (SLR) played a dominant role in the past, its share of passenger and freight transportation has shrunk over time. SLR has identified the potential to improve its services as a low-cost mass transportation mode for passengers and goods, and thereby reduce urban and suburban traffic congestion to a great extent. On the other hand, non-motorized transport share is very low in urban areas and is reducing in rural areas. Three-wheelers, school, and office vans are providing substantial services to communities that do not have direct access to buses or trains. Recent infrastructure developments in the sector such as expressways, park & ride facilities, multimodal transport hubs, etc. are expected to reduce the emission footprint while positively contributing to the environment and economy. 

Future Outlook and GHG Emissions Reduction Potential in Transport Sector: Under the businessas-usual scenario, the share of public transportation will decline further. However, the updated NDCs are expected to re-invigorate public transportation including railways, buses, and improve intermodal connectivity between rail, road, and water-based transportation. Investments in safe, reliable, accessible, and comfortable public transportation can encourage the shift from private to public. An increase in public transport will reduce traffic delays and congestion. Improvement of energy efficiency/fuel economy in the transport sector becomes a national priority to save foreign exchange contributing to the economy, local and global air pollution, apart from its contribution to GHG emissions reduction as stipulated through the NDCs. 

Updated Transport Sector NDCs: The sector has analyzed the abatement costs of different transport sector mitigation options under the Initiative for Climate Action Transparency (ICAT) support. Even though this assessment indicates that there are several emission reduction activities that can be implemented compared to the BAU scenario, the country needs significant financial support to accomplish the identified actions. A comprehensive Measuring Reporting and Verification (MRV) system for the transport sector is being implemented under the same programme. An initial feasibility   assessment for the ‘Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) on Bus Rapid Transport (BRT)’ concept was completed in 2015/2016 and expects external support to complete as a comprehensive feasibility and implementation of the same. Strengthening NDCs communicated in 2016 with this evidence/analysis, the following actions (table 4.4.2) are proposed to support transport sector emissions reduction. The development of an environmentally sustainable transport (EST) system, based on the concept of “Reduce-Shift-Improve” supports reducing (or avoiding) the need to travel, shifting to more environmentally friendly modes, and improving the energy efficiency of transportation and vehicle technology (focused on system efficiency, trip efficiency, and vehicle efficiency).

Table 4.4.2: NDCs in Transport Sector 

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It is expected that the implementation of updated NDCs will result in GHG emissions reduction against BAU scenario by 4.0% in the transport sector (1.0% unconditionally and 3.0% conditionally) equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of 1,337,000 MT unconditionally and 4,011,000 MT conditionally (total of 5,348,000 MT) of carbon dioxide equivalent during the period of 2021-2030 (Figure 4.4.2).

Figure 4.4.2: Emission reduction projections (Transport Sector) 

4.4.3 Industry Sector 

The industrial survey conducted in 2016 by the Department of Census and Statistics reported 21,295 industrial establishments^[10] in Sri Lanka with manufacturing as the largest segment. Industrial production, according to Central Bank Annual Report 2018, is the second-largest contributor to GDP 

(15.5%) after the service sector (26.1%) and employs 30% of the country’s workforce. Textile, apparel, and tea manufacturing are the most significant export-oriented sub-sectors. 

As per the Energy Balance 2018 of Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, the energy required for the industry sector came from three main sources: biomass (33%), petroleum oil (34%) and electricity (33%). Biomass is used in tea and rubber factories, bakeries, tile and brick industries and other smallscale industries. Fossil fuel is used for operating boilers, ovens and furnaces in other industries. The key industries contributing to GHG emissions are cement manufacture, lime production for the construction industry, and industries using limestone and soda ash. However, compared to emissions from industrial energy consumption, industrial processes generate a relatively low level of GHG emissions.  

Future Outlook and GHG Emissions Reduction Potential in Industry Sector: The Government of Sri Lanka is focusing on creating a globally competitive, high value-added, innovative, technology, and knowledge-based industry, with a minimal adverse impact on the environment, which could boost the investor confidence and ensure higher export revenues and achieving sustainable development. To reflect this new direction, the Ministry of Industries is now in the process of formulating a National Policy for Industrial Development (NaPID) and a five-year Strategic Implementation Plan to operationalize the NaPID.

Alongside this, the Ministry of Industries is exploring the possibility of implementing industry sector NDCs through the design and implementation of policy, as well as regulatory, technical & financial mechanisms and tools to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy, energy & resource- efficient technologies and best practices. These NDCs (Table 4.4.3) will enhance mitigation ambitions while embracing and incorporating resource efficiency, circular economy and other internationally acclaimed concepts.  It is noted that these NDCs are directly or indirectly addressing energy-consumption-based emissions as there are limited avenues and reliable data sources to account for industrial process and product use (IPPU) related actions. 

Table 4.4.3: NDCs in Industry Sector 

It is expected that the updated NDCs for 2021 to 2030 will reduce GHG emissions against the BAU scenario by 7% in the industry sector (4% unconditionally and 3% conditionally) equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of 2,088,000 MT unconditionally and 1,482,000 MT conditionally (total of 3,570,000 MT) of carbon dioxide equivalent during that period (Figure 4.4.3) . It should be noted that there are additional emission reductions from various initiatives which are difficult to be accounted for as no systematic reporting/accounting arrangement is yet in place. 

Figure 4.4.3: Emission reduction projections (Industry Sector) 

4.4.4 Waste Management 

Sri Lanka generates around 9,000 metric tonnes (MT) of municipal solid waste (MSW) per day (equivalent to about 0.41 kg/capita/day^[11]) with the Western Province accounting for 3,500 MT (40%) of volume. Waste collection by local authorities is about 55% in the Western Province and 25% in the other provinces. With population growth, fast development of infrastructure, rapid urbanization, industrial growth, increase of per capita income, rise in living standards, changing lifestyle, and economic conditions, the generation of municipal solid waste is expected to increase in the next decade 2021-2030. This illustrates the need for a national action plan for solid waste management, that all stakeholders can acknowledge and work towards a common goal. The limited coverage of proper waste segregation and adequate waste collection mechanisms covering the whole island, inadequate public commitment on waste management, and practical difficulties in the application of 3R principles are some underlying issues of the current waste management practice.  

Sri Lanka has a legislative and institutional framework with environment-related policies, strategies, and guidelines on waste management. Technologies and methods used for waste management are well accepted, however innovative technologies and strategies are yet to be introduced to streamline and modernize existing waste management practices. 

The Waste Management Authority of Western Province (WMAWP) has prepared targets for waste treatment and disposal for the period 2019 to 2023. Accordingly, open dumping of waste will be significantly reduced, and waste will be collected in closed enclosures for mass disposal in respective local authorities and used in waste-to-energy projects after resource recovery steps. Already, two private companies have been granted permission for waste-to-energy generation projects with capacities of 700 and 500 MT/day and the first plant has been just commissioned. In parallel to the plan of the WMAWP, three large-scale compost facilities are in operation, each with 100 MT/day capacity. Presently, about 2% of the waste collected by local authorities is recycled, while the amount recycled by the informal sector is considered to be much higher. The Ministry of Provincial Councils and Local Government plans to establish composting facilities each with the capacity of 50 MT/day in many provinces.  

Future Outlook & GHG Emissions Reduction Potential in Waste Sector: The prioritized objectives of the recently approved National Policy on Waste Management (2019) are waste avoidance and reduction. The next level of management recommends adoption of waste recycling and other forms of environmentally-sound disposal; re-use of unavoidable waste to the extent possible; maintain hazardous substances in waste at the lowest possible level and guarantee an environmentally sound residual waste treatment and disposal underlining the gradual shift from a waste generating socio-cultural regime to a new paradigm in which waste disposal is minimized in favour of reuse and reduced consumption.  

Along with other measures, awareness through education and attitude change among the public is required to realize a sustainable waste management system. A long-term solution that addresses the issue of open dumping and create economic/fiscal disincentives for waste generation is needed. These NDCs (Table 4.4.4) will enhance mitigation ambitions while embracing circular economy concepts clearly spelt out in the national policies for Waste Management and Sustainable Consumption and Production.  

Table 4.4.4: NDCs in Waste Sector

It is expected that the implementation of updated NDCs during the period of 2021 to 2030 will result in GHG reduction against the BAU scenario by 11% reduction in the waste sector (8.5% unconditionally and 2.5% conditionally) equivalent to an estimated GHG emissions reduction of 2,549,000 MT (1,969,000 MT unconditionally and 580,000 MT conditionally) of carbon dioxide equivalent during that period (Figure 4.4.4).  

Figure 4.4.4: Emission reduction projections (Waste Sector) 

4.4.5 Forestry Sector 

Sri Lanka’s forest cover (which was  29.15% of land area in 2015)^[12] is comprised of dense forest, open and sparse forest, savannah, and mangroves.¹⁷ This natural vegetation displays diversity and distribution under Sri Lanka’s three climatic zones; Wet, Dry, and Intermediate. Furthermore, forest-like home gardens and plantations of spices, rubber, timber, etc. also occupy a considerable land extent providing carbon benefits. Sri Lanka is unique in South Asia for its high biodiversity per unit area, and the large extent of high-canopy home gardens. However, over time, forest cover has declined. Some forest cover has been cleared to make way for agriculture and plantations and recently, for larger infrastructure projects (dams, roads, human settlement, etc.).  

The main concerns for sustenance/protection of natural forests include deforestation, land degradation and soil erosion, illegal felling, wildlife poaching and mining, forest fire and degradation of coastal forests. Aside from the environmental implications, deforestation in Sri Lanka has caused landslides, soil degradation, flooding, loss of biodiversity and their habitats, pollution, etc. It is the primary threat to the survival of Sri Lanka's biodiversity. 

Future Outlook & Carbon Sequestration Potential in Forestry Sector: A large number of legislative instruments, policies and strategies and programmes are in place to protect the forest cover. The Fauna and Flora Protection Ordinance (1993), Forest (Amendment) Act, No 65 of 2009, Forest Ordinance 1907 (No. 16 of 1907) as amended up to 2009, Sri Lanka Forestry Sector Master Plan 1995-2020, National Environmental Act (1980), National Action Plan for combating land degradation in Sri Lanka 2015-2024, National Biodiversity Strategic Action Plan 2016-2022, Forest Conservation and Development Plan, Sustainable Land Management Programme, the National REDD+ Investment Framework and Action Plan are the more recent of these. 

The current policy framework of the government provides broad guidelines and directions for sustainable forestry management. It envisions a “Net Carbon Zero Country” and the enhancement of the natural forest cover up to 30% by 2025. There is an emphasis on identifying and reforesting suitable lands, re-establishing and enhancing green cover, restoring barren and abandoned lands for agriculture and forestry, planting trees, establishing urban forests, green paths, green roofs and agroforestry systems, establishing parks in urban and semi-urban areas, developing urban vegetation by planting trees along expressways and in industrial premises -all of which can deliver emissions reduction. 

Forestry has enormous adaptation and disaster mitigation co-benefits. Forests protect catchments and ensure water availability downstream. Forests provide food and fuel for many rural communities and ensure biomass-based renewable energy availability. Nature-based solutions are proposed for many natural hazards, landslides, slope instability, flood, coastal erosion- in place of structures of cement and steel. Examples from Sri Lanka show that mangroves have protected communities from coastal degradation and forests on steep slopes have prevented landslides. Adapting traditional tree and food crops in agro-forestry systems can potentially support resilience (drought tolerance), improve food security (high nutrition fruits/food) and combat human-animal conflicts. 

The following updated NDCs (Table 4.4.5) focus on carbon sequestration capacity –but the underlying premise is to improve natural forest cover and its quality by conservation of existing forests, restoration and improvement of degraded forests and establishment of new forest plantations. Engaging the private sector to enhance utility forests and commercial forestry is another option.  Table 4.4.5: NDCs in Forestry Sector 

It is expected that the implementation of updated NDCs of the forestry sector will result in the increase of carbon sequestration capacity by 7% against the BAU scenario (2% unconditionally and 5% conditionally) for the period 2021-2030. This is equivalent to an estimated additional sequestration of 705,000 MT unconditionally and 1,652,000 MT conditionally (total of 2,357,000 MT) of carbon dioxide equivalent during that period (Figure 4.4.5).  

Figure 4.4.5: Carbon Sequestration Capacity Projections (Forestry Sector) 

4.4.6 Agriculture Sector

Agriculture contributes around 8% of GDP and it is around 21% in export earnings^[15]. The sector currently employs around 30% of the labour force. Sri Lankan agriculture comprises food crops and plantations (mainly tea, rubber, and coconut). The food crop sector is made up of small holders with average extents less than one hectare. This results in issues of diseconomies of scale and difficulty of mechanization in the face of increasing wages and scarcity of labour. Further, heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture, lack of diversification into high-value marketable products, high cost of production/ low profitability, low-levels of technology adoption and imperfect market conditions, weak information dissemination and poor value addition are major constraints.   

The Livestock sector contribution to the GDP was around 1% in 2019. The major share comes from cattle with 1.4 million animals providing 447 million litres of milk in 2019 which is equivalent to 38% of the national milk requirement. However, the livestock sector is also hindered by substandard breeding and low productivity, low adoption of technology, lack of grazing lands and high feed costs. Unproductive, feral cattle/buffalo population, poor feeding systems, poor animal welfare etc., significantly contribute to GHG emissions in the sector. 

Future Outlook & GHG Reduction Potential in Agriculture Sector:  The government’s policy framework provides broad guidelines and directions for sustainable agriculture and environmentally conscious farming, with emphasis on modern and advanced technologies, economizing water usage, use of renewable energy, product innovations, value addition and process improvements, management of surplus production through improved post-harvest handling, packaging, transport, storing and delivery. The investments in livestock development are aimed at self-sufficiency in milk production. GHG reduction in the agriculture sector is to be achieved by implementing several key strategies. One such move is to diversify crop production away from water-intensive rice farming to more exportoriented high-value crops. Another is to improve value addition and better integrate small-holder farmers into modern agricultural value-chains reducing crop wastage. Improved technology, modern agricultural practices and waste management in both crop and livestock sectors are considered important strategies for cleaner production in this sector. The Overarching Agriculture Policy (OAP) which is being formulated will focus on improving productivity, self-sufficiency, and safety of food.

Table 4.4. 6: NDCs in Agriculture Sector 

It is expected that the implementation of updated NDCs during the period of 2021 to 2030 will result in the reduction of GHG emissions against the BAU scenario by 7% in the agriculture and livestock sector (4% unconditionally and 3% conditionally) equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of 2,477,400 MT CO_2e unconditionally^[16] and 1,858,000 MT CO_2e conditionally (total of 4,335,400 MT CO_2e) of carbon dioxide equivalent during that period (Figure 4.4.6). 

Figure 4.4.6: Emission Reduction Projections (Agriculture and Livestock) 

Chapter 5: Adaptation NDCs 

Sri Lanka’s vulnerability to climate change is well documented^[17] and has been presented through national communications to the UNFCCC.  Recent vulnerability analysis confirms Sri Lanka’s enhanced exposure to climate change parameters. These analyses point to long term changes in rainfall distribution and shifting of ecological boundaries, compounding already observable shifts of the bimodal monsoon pattern, rainfall intensities and dry periods, the increasing temperature and heat, increasing exposure to climate hazards and sea-level rise. The most critical sectors affected by these changes are agriculture, fisheries, livestock, water, biodiversity, coastal and marine, health, urban planning and human settlements and tourism and recreation. These NDCs present prioritised actions for adaptation identified by related national agencies, experts and other stakeholders in each vulnerable sector. 

Climate change poses a serious threat to economic growth and erodes development gains. The longterm policy goal for Sri Lanka is to ensure that the country is protected from adverse impacts of climate change²³. The objective is to facilitate sustainable development in each sector in a way that supports continued economic growth and high human development while protecting the natural resource base on which many of these livelihoods are dependent. 

Adaptation priorities outlined below have common underlying requirements for effective implementation. Sector-specific risk information and assessments and localised modelling tools are not widely available for decision-making. Indeed, many sectors and areas require greater availability of data at a disaggregated, local level to make accurate risk-informed investments. An example is the level of accuracy of the information available to make predictions on sea-level rise in Sri Lanka. Risk assessments for developing sectoral strategies (e.g. tourism) and for spatial development (e.g. urban centers) are currently unavailable at the required resolution, therefore have been mentioned as priority adaptation actions. Risk and vulnerability information scaled-down to sub-national level to enable decision making at provincial, river-basin or divisional level are currently not widely available.

Figure 5.1: Climate impacts, adaptive capacities, and vulnerabilities to adaptation actions^[18]  

Mainstreaming gender and social safeguards into adaptation priorities is an important strategy. Therefore, it is recommended that down-scaled risk assessments and sectoral plans integrate specific needs, vulnerabilities and capacities of women, young children, disabled and elderly populations. Gender- responsive strategies will take in to account the differentiated needs of men and women within the sector and recommend ways to improve access to knowledge, technology, financing etc in a way that creates enabling conditions for adaptation. Increased capacities among both men and women, improved technical and Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics  (STEM) education, more funding for vulnerability analysis at the local level etc., to enable greater engagement and contribution of women, allowing the application of skills and capacities that are gender-specific.   

In order to ensure adaptation, NDCs should enable contribution by women as well as provide equal access to benefits., the sector will need to invest in gender-responsive  training, promote more entrepreneurial  skills among  women and provide access to technology and finance that supports their participation. Gender-responsive NDCs will enable men and women to equally benefit from new technologies, climate-smart production and water management practices that would include better agriculture productivity, food security and incomes, greater resource management efficiency (water, land, food processing and preservation) etc. As described in section 7.1, it is recommended that sectors undertake detailed gender analysis as part of the process of developing the 10-year NDC implementation plans. 

Traditional knowledge in crop types, cropping systems, water management, food preparation and preservation will be important to build resilience in key sectors such as agriculture and food security, water and forestry. Traditionally used but commercially ignored species can be effectively used to improve food security, access, better nutrition, improve biodiversity outcomes and provide local options for forestry and trees outside forests (home gardens, roadsides, boundary fencing etc). Women play a key role as repositories of such knowledge and can be mobilized to improve nutrition, food preservation and food storage with such information. 

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) identifies three forms of climate change-induced population movement: displacement, migration, and planned relocation. Migration, permanent or seasonal, has clear interlinkages with the enhanced vulnerability of rural populations exposed to continued climate disasters. It is critical to study the phenomenon of migration to determine the extent of the problem, challenges of enhanced vulnerability for both rural and urban poor) and the rights of those displaced from their homes and uprooted from livelihoods due to exacerbated climate crisis. Increased availability of data and information on climate migration is critical for evidence-based interventions in this regard.  Migration related analysis should be included in adaptation sectors, especially agriculture, health, and urban settlements. 

There are several sectors where the stated adaptation priorities contribute towards GHG emissions reduction. Such reductions are expected in the urban planning and human settlement sector (sustainable and green building design, and increased tree cover), water sector (energy efficiency and reduced pumping) and tourism sector (energy efficiency and green buildings).  

Financing needs for adaptation are enormous and cannot be born solely through public investment. Sri Lanka has over the year accessed climate financing from climate funds, bilateral and multilateral agencies. However, this access has not met the country’s demand for adaptation. Indication of financing requirements for adaptation sector resilience building will be expected to be indicated in National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and NDC costing exercises in the future.  

5.1 Sectoral Adaptation NDCs 

5.1.1 Agriculture Sector 

Despite the gradual contraction of its contribution to national GDP, agriculture remains the most important economic activity in Sri Lanka. It employs over 2 million people which is around 30% of the workforce and rural districts provide income and livelihood for over half the population. Agriculture land use is approximately 2.2 million ha which is equivalent to 35% of the country’s total land area. A large extent of this land is owned by smallholder farmers, contributing to a major share of annual crop production. The plantations (tea, rubber, coconut, spices, coffee) are confined to the Wet/Intermediate 

Zones of the country and significantly contributes to the country’s export earnings.  

Sri Lanka’s fiscal policies favour agricultural expansion and productivity with the objective of selfsufficiency in as many crops as possible, reiterated in 2020 through new regulations controlling agricultural imports.  The Government’s vision^[19]prioritizes new technology, value addition and efficient storage and transportation, reducing chemical inputs, promoting more sustainable models of agriculture, reducing food importation costs and earning increasing export revenue through agriculture. An Overarching Agriculture Policy (OAP) is under development and will embrace all key agriculture sector institutions from crop, livestock, inland fishery, agro-processing, and allied services such as irrigation, agrarian development, and environment. This new policy will encompass the National Agriculture Policy (2007) which is also being updated, National Agricultural Research Policy (2012), National Livestock Development Policy (2007), and the aspects related to inland fisheries of the National Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Policy (2018). 

Climate risks in the Agriculture Sector:  Climate change impacts on agriculture has been studied and recorded in somewhat greater detail in Sri Lanka. Temperature increase and high evaporation rates are expected to affect the staple crop- rice. Meteorological records point to 283 dry spells over the period of 30 years since 1974. Erratic and unseasonal rainfall and unpredictability of the monsoons severely impact agriculture (both flooding and drought impacts on crops including paddy) livelihoods and socioeconomic conditions of rural smallholders, undermining some of the investments made by the government on agriculture and irrigation. Furthermore, temperature anomalies (lack of cold nights, especially) affect high-value crops, such as upcountry vegetables. Plantations of tea and coconut are affected by long dry spells and rubber by intense rainfall.  Tea productivity fell to a 25 year low in 2020 due to longer dry spells in the plantation regions. Lack of rainfall coupled with human-induced activities stoke forest fires and hasten the drying up of streams and water sources. Sea level rise induced salinity is expected to impact coastal agriculture.  The Third National Communication to the UNFCCC^[20]highlights the need for more climate risk related research on crops being currently promoted among farmers such as cinnamon and pepper.

Adaptation in the Agriculture Sector: Resilience building in the agriculture sector is organized under six NDCs (Table 5.1.1) including mainstreaming of climate change considerations into the sector, varietal improvement to address climate vulnerability, sustainable land and water management and enhanced early warning climate risk management. Contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gasses from postharvest losses, enhanced efficiency in production and adopting renewable energy in production processes of the agriculture sector is presented in the Agriculture Sector Mitigation NDCs.  Table 5.1.1: NDCs in Agriculture Sector 

5.1.2 Fisheries Sector  

Sri Lankan fisheries sector covers marine, coastal, inland fishery and aquaculture. Marine fishery covers 517,00 km² sea area while coastal and inland fisheries use 489,000 ha of lagoons, estuaries, reservoirs and riverine areas^[21]. Marine and coastal fishery contributes 80% of the total fish catch and provides 2.4 million direct and indirect employment and 70% of the animal protein intake of the populace. Fishery contributes approximately 1.2% to Sri Lanka’s GDP^[22]. There is great potential to develop the sector, with new technology, value addition and aquaculture development. Ministry of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Development and Department of Fisheries & Aquatic Resources (DFAR) takes charge in guiding the sector development with its National Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy, 2018 and regulations framed under the Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Act No 2 of 2016 and its amendments. 

The national policy framework^[23] indicates achieving better nutrition, food security, foreign exchange earnings, employment and livelihood opportunities, poverty alleviation and enhanced contribution to the national and rural economy as its objectives for the fisheries sector.  

Currently, unsustainable fishery practices, over-fishing of certain species, poaching, land-based pollution from rivers, garbage dumping and habitat destruction in coastal areas (mangroves and coral reefs) are the main threats to Sri Lanka’s fishery resources. 

Climate risks in the Fisheries Sector: Ocean warming, and acidification is already threatening global fishery. These risks will be exacerbated by future warming. Long-term changes in the marine ecosystem will change species distribution. Climate change will alter mangrove and seagrass ecosystems which support breeding grounds for commercially viable fish species. Loss of wetlands in coastal areas, changes in the salinity of lagoons and estuaries affecting fish and shellfish will be greatly felt. Ocean acidification would make it more difficult for shellfish, crabs, lobsters and corals to build calcium carbonate shells, resulting in diminished stocks. Risks are greater if warming reaches beyond 1.5°C with substantial losses predicted for coastal livelihoods and fishery related industry³⁰. In Sri Lanka, shrimp farming on the north-west coast was found to be particularly vulnerable in a recent assessment^[24]. Inland fishery is threatened by changes in temperature, droughts, precipitation, run-off and floods on freshwater ecosystems. Risk on inland fisheries would be further aggravated by projected decreased rainfall during North-East Monsoon.  

Secondly, increasing natural disasters such as storm surges and high winds/cyclones will cause damage to reefs and thereby increase coastal erosion and salinity of inland soil and freshwater sources. Properties and physical infrastructure of small-scale fishers and their communities would also be threatened with increased frequency of climate-related disasters as well as rising sea levels and creeping salinity in coastal areas. 

Adaptation in the Fisheries Sector: Adaptation measures are organized under seven NDCs (Table 5.1.2) including adopting ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management, expansion of aquaculture and culture-based fisheries for enhanced food security, breeding species for aquaculture to withstand adverse climatic conditions, enhanced safety at sea, better early warning for climate risk management, livelihood diversification and targeted research on impacts on fisheries due to climate change.  

Table 5.1.2: NDCs in Fisheries Sector

5.1.3 Livestock Sector 

The livestock sector is a key contributor to food security and agricultural development also supports poverty alleviation. In Sri Lanka, livestock rearing is mostly managed at small-scale and provides additional income and livelihood support for rural, agricultural households utilizing excess labour, underutilized agricultural by-products and marginal lands. Livestock has shown a nominal growth in the last few years and sector contribution to the GDP is around 1%.^[25] Cattle farming takes the major share with some 1.4 million animals providing 38% of the national milk requirement in 2019. Poultry is the next major subsector producing chicken meat (225,000MT in 2019) and eggs (2 billion) in 2019.^[26] However, the cost of production of both chicken meat and eggs have increased due to low productivity.  Beef production is on the decline while pork and mutton production was on the rise in recent years.  

The government proposes to enhance the milk production from the present 40% of the requirement to self-sufficiency, development of quality grasses for livestock and improving poultry production for the export market. The National Livestock Development Policy (2007) and the Livestock Master Plan - A Strategy for Livestock Development towards Self-sufficiency(2011) provide policy guidance to the sector. With the other agencies under the Ministry of Agriculture, the Department of Animal Production and Health takes the lead in improving the livestock sector development in Sri Lanka. National Livestock Breeding Policy Guidelines and Strategy for Sri Lanka, (2010) has been the main guidance for livestock breeding. The Overarching Agriculture Policy (OAP) under preparation is expected to provide the policy framework for all key agriculture sector institutions -crop, livestock, inland fishery, crop processing, and allied services such as irrigation, agrarian development and environment. 

Climate risks for the Livestock Sector:  Globally it is estimated that there will be a loss of livestock rangelands of around 10% if temperatures rise to 2°C of warming.^[27] In Sri Lanka, animal production sub-sectors such as dairy, poultry and swine have been assessed for heat stress and exposure to climate related disasters such as flood and drought. Increasing temperature and the associated water scarcity is the most pressing threat for the livestock industry. Dairy is by far the most important and most threatened by temperature rise. Intensification of dairy systems in dry regions using temperate breeds could lead to greater vulnerability to temperature and humidity increases. The Temperature Humidity Index (THI) is predicted to be greater than 72 units in most areas of the Dry Zone in 2030 and heat stress will be detrimental to the industry if temperate breeds are used. There is some threat from flash floods (north-western, western and southern provinces) and prolonged drought, especially in the Dry Zone (north, north-west and eastern provinces).

Adaptation in the Livestock Sector: Livestock sector adaptation priorities are presented under three NDCs (Table 5.1.3) covering climate resilience building in ruminant livestock farming practices, in managing swine and poultry farms, and sector-wide research and development, training and capacity building to adapt livestock practices to climate change. Contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gasses from enhanced efficiency and adopting renewable energy in the livestock sector is presented in the Agriculture Sector Mitigation NDCs. 

Table 5.1.3: NDCs in Livestock Sector 

5.1.4 Water Sector 

The water sector includes water resources used for different purposes covering drinking, irrigation and water for other purposes (environment, industry, fisheries, hydropower etc.) Water security has become a serious concern in Sri Lanka amidst erratic weather patterns and increasing demand for water, prompting the need for urgent implementation of improved water management strategies across all its sub-sectors. Government initiatives such as Mahaweli Water Security Improvement Programme, 

Climate Resilience Improvement Project, Climate Resilient Integrated Water Management Project, Strengthening Climate Resilience for Communities in Vulnerable River Basins, Watershed areas and downstream of the Knuckles Mountain Range and Surakimu Ganga (protect our rivers) are some of the notable ones addressing water security amongst many other.   

Authorities are increasingly considering Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM) approaches where water security can be enhanced and balanced between the competing uses of water. Therefore, in these NDCs, the previously (2016 NDCs) individually dealt domestic water (named Water Sector) and Irrigation Sector are presented as a combined single sector. Other water uses covering industry, hydropower, fisheries and energy are addressed in respective sectoral NDCs. Environmental aspects of water management are partly covered under biodiversity NDCs. Furthermore, agriculture sector adaptation NDCs represent some additional measures covering water use efficiency and agricultural water management. 

The Vistas of Prosperity and Splendour^[28] highlights the provision of safe drinking water through pipeborne schemes. Irrigation water use efficiency and use of renewable energy are also highlighted therein. The draft National Policy, Strategies and Institutional Framework for Water Resources Development, Conservation and Management will be the key guiding policy framework when it is finalized. The preparation of an Overarching Agriculture Policy (OAP) will also provide specific guidance on irrigation water use and efficiency. Strategic Action Plan for Adaptation for Irrigation and Water Resources Sector to Climate Change 2019-2025 and beyond provides adaptation action for the sector. 

Climate change influenced risks to the Sector: Major risk factors relating to the water sector are expected to further exacerbate the climate change impacts. Hence the allocation of available water between users will become increasingly challenging. Climate change influenced risks to water include water scarcity in terms of quality and quantity, salinity intrusion and damage to water distribution structures by extreme events including floods, droughts and sea-level rise. These are expected to exacerbate with temperature increase and rainfall variation, especially the negative anomaly predicted for the first inter-monsoon. Districts in the Kelani, Nilwala and Walawe basins demonstrate drinking water sector vulnerability to flood events -which are more frequent due to intense rainfall events.  

Salinity is an issue throughout the coastal area, but especially where demand for ground water has increased exponentially (Western Province, North Western Province & Eastern Province). Lack of water for sanitation due to drought and flood also has been identified as a health risk of significance in selected districts. The North-Western and North-Central provinces possess a large number of minor and major irrigation schemes some dating back a millennium. Prolonged droughts and changing rainfall patterns threaten the water storage in these reservoir networks. High ambient temperatures lead to high rates of evapo-transpiration from these water bodies. Over siltation due to interrupted land cover reduces the depth of these irrigation tanks aggravating water loss via pan evaporation. Meanwhile floods caused by sudden and intense rainfall events damage irrigation structures such as dams, spills, canals and sluices. In the past decade there have been many major flood events in the Dry Zone, leading to high rates of damage to irrigation structures and high rates of siltation in reservoirs. 

Adaptation in the Water Sector: As outlined above, water sector adaptation to climate change is organized under two main sub-sectors covering domestic water use and irrigation water use. The main policy drive in water sector adaptation to climate change is provided by adopting Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM) approach in 15 proritised river basins in Sri Lanka. River basins prioritised were Kelani Ganga, Attanagalu Oya, Gin Ganga, Nilwala Ganga, Malwathu Oya, Deduru Oya, Ma Oya, Gal Oya, Kala Oya, Mahaweli Ganga, Mundeni Aru, Kalu Ganga, Mi Oya, Yan Oya and Kirindi Oya.

The sector has ten NDCs (Table 5.1.4) which includes one overarching NDC covering IRBM; five  NDCs on domestic water use including ground water monitoring, climate-resilient water supply schemes, promoting the use of waste water, managing salinity at water intakes, capacity building for climate change adaptation; and four NDCs on irrigation water use including restoration, rehabilitation and augmentation of irrigation systems, the introduction of alternative water sources, improving irrigation efficiency and early warning for river flooding.  

Table 5.1 4: NDCs in Water Sector 

5.1.5 Biodiversity Sector

Sri Lanka is a global biodiversity hotspot. Species diversity, distribution and natural evolution depend on climatic and microclimatic factors and is mostly concentrated in the Wet Zone or south western quarter of the country. Change in macro-environmental parameters, especially precipitation, humidity, temperature and pH, can influence the distribution and survival of species that depend on specific habitat/micro climatic conditions and increase the threats from invasive species to sensitive habitats. 

Studies on several rare, endemic species detailed in Sri Lanka’s Third National Communication to the UNFCCC, National Biodiversity Strategic Action Plan 2016-2022 and Technology Needs Assessment for Climate Change Adaptation show that the habitat ranges will shrink and shift for both higher plants, insects, amphibians and reptiles as temperature increases and rainfall becomes more erratic.  

The national policy framework commits to biodiversity conservation including restoring and rehabilitating degraded ecosystems and integrating biodiversity conservation into tourism, education and cultural events in a planned and systematic manner. There are many policies related to biodiversity conservation in Sri Lanka. The key policies include the National Forestry Policy of 1995, the National Wildlife Policy of 2000, the National Environmental Policy of 2003, the National Policy on Invasive Alien Species (IAS) in Sri Lanka of 2016. The National Biodiversity Strategic Action Plan, 2016-2022 is the overall strategy for conserving biodiversity in Sri Lanka under the leadership of the Biodiversity Secretariat of the Ministry of Environment. The Ministry of Wildlife and Forest Conservation together with the Department of Wildlife Conservation (DWC) and Department of Forest Conservation (FD) are the key government institutions. Fauna and Flora Protection Ordinance No 22 as amended in 2009 and Forest Conservation Ordinance No 65 as amended in 2009 are the key legislature enabling the DWC and FD respectively in the conservation of biodiversity in Sri Lanka.   

Climate risks in the Biodiversity Sector: There are recent studies^[29] indicating a shift of ecological zones due to climate change. With a dearth of reliable data to identify vulnerable species and habitat changes, Sri Lanka’s NDCs have focused on the potential impacts of the predicted shifts in climatic zones. Such changes are quite likely to bring about changes in species and habitat and could have negative impacts on the overall biodiversity of Sri Lanka, if adequate measures are not taken to identify and manage these changes in manner that will make both species and habitats more resilient to predicted changes. Habitat restoration is likely to enhance carbon sequestration and therefore will confer an added advantage in terms of Sri Lanka’s national contribution to combat climate change- driven changes. Whilst making Sri Lanka more resilient to climate change these actions will also contribute indirectly to achieve national conservation targets as defined in the National Biodiversity Strategic Action Plan.         

Adaptation in the Biodiversity Sector: Resilience building actions for biodiversity are presented under five NDCs (Table 5.1.5) covering management of climate- sensitive areas and restoration of degraded areas within and outside the protected areas, increased connectivity for species migration accommodate climate driven changes, possible expansion of protected areas to build the resilience of biodiversity as a system of protected areas, strengthening ex-situ conservation of fauna and flora and effective management of Invasive Alien Species (IAS). Some of the mitigation co-benefits of biodiversity including carbon sequestration is captured under Forestry Sector under the mitigation NDCs, where the adaptation co-benefits of forest conservation are described in NDCs below. 

Table 5.1.5: NDCs in Biodiversity Sector 

5.1.6 Coastal and Marine Sector 

Sri Lanka has 1,620 km of coastline and a vast exclusive economic zone of 517,000 sq.km. Over 80% of the total national fish catch comes from marine and coastal fishery^[30] and it supports the livelihoods of many who engage directly or indirectly in fishery. The coastal region extends about 50 km inland from the coastline, which is approximately 23% of the total land area of the country, while accommodating over 25% of the population. The coastal zone is home to a major share of the industries and the country’s tourist establishments^[31] and contributes approximately 40% to the national GDP. Coastal beach tourism includes deep sea sport fishing, observing sea mammals, sailing, diving of varying types, boating and numerous recreational sports, sunbathing, and turtle watching in the shallower reef waters. It is estimated that coastal tourism, representing nearly 60% of total sector revenues, offers a rich gamut of value-added products^[32].  

Sri Lanka’s national policy framework^[33] highlights that the ocean resources should be utilized more effectively under the blue-green economy concept while investing in coastal conservation and pollution prevention. Coastal Zone Management Plan of 2016 sets out the framework and guiding principles for coastal zone management while the Coast Conservation Act No. 57 of 1981 and Amendments / CCD Regulations, Marine Pollution Prevention Act No. 35 of 2008 and Amendments and the Marine 

Environmental Protection Authority Regulations together with Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Act No 2 of the 2016 and the regulations therein provide the key legal provisions for coast conservation. Sri Lanka is now in the process of claiming an extensive, though yet to be determined additional extent of seabed area under the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea, which will bring greater economic opportunity for the country. 

Climate impacts on Coastal and Marine Sector: Impacts associated with sea-level rise and increased coastal hazards are predicted with climate change. Changes to the salinity of coastal ground water, increased flooding and damage to infrastructure are predicted with a high degree of confidence for island countries. ^[34] Coastal storms and surges could damage infrastructure and cause severe erosion. A detailed risk assessment for the sector^[35] focused on identifying the degree of future risks and vulnerable areas and impacts on key economic activities in the coastal area. Tourism, coastal rice paddies, drinking water and lagoon fishery activities are most threatened. There could be potential migration of communities away from coastal areas as coastal erosion and salinity due to sea-level rise become more severe due to climate change.  

During the El Nino in 1998, high sea surface temperatures (3-5° C above normal) wiped out coral reefs; Bar Reef marine sanctuary (95%); Hikkaduwa marine sanctuary (90%); Weligama (60%) and Rumassala (80%)^[36]. Increased temperature and sea-levels will impact the inter-tidal areas with mangroves and other coastal vegetations undermining coastal resilience and protection provided by these ecosystems (against storms and tides).  

Adaptation in the Coastal and Marine Sector: Coastal and marine sector adaptation priorities have been formulated under four NDCs (Table 5.1.6) covering mainly technical skills and systems development for monitoring and responding to climate change and variability. These include establishment of accurate sea level rise forecasting systems, preparation of updated vulnerability and risk maps, strengthened shoreline management measures and conserving unique areas of natural value in vulnerable coastal areas. Soft solutions for shoreline management such as mangrove restoration has mitigation co-benefits under Forestry Sector and contributing to Biodiversity Sector related adaptation benefits.  

Table 5.1. 6: NDCs in Coastal and Marine Sector 

5.1.7 Health Sector  

Sri Lanka has a pluralistic healthcare system that combines allopathic/western medicine, with traditional forms of treatment such as Ayurveda, Siddha, Unani and Homeopathy. However, the majority of investments and improvements have led to the expansion of the allopathic system and access to free healthcare for all citizens. The national health system is well advanced due to advanced social policies in the post-independence era and consists of 603 public hospitals (3.6 beds for every 1,000 persons) with one qualified doctor for every 1,203 persons/one nurse for every 570 persons in 2019. Further, there are 105 government Ayurvedic hospitals with 4,485 beds and 1,759 qualified Ayurvedic doctors^[37]. Sri Lanka performed well in its efforts to attain the health-related Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and the targets set for 2015 for child mortality, maternal mortality, reproductive health, and eradication of malaria were successfully met with a well-established healthcare system. Infant mortality is 7 per 100 live births, maternal mortality is 35 per 100,000 live births. However, malnutrition among children and women is inexplicably high in Sri Lanka and vector-borne diseases like dengue and leptospirosis claim many lives annually. Major concerns include pregnant women with low BMI on or before 12 weeks of pregnancy (15%), low birth weight of newborns (nearly 12%), underweight infants (6.4%), young children aged 1-2 (12%), aged 2-5 (19%) can be highlighted^[38]. Addressing these areas of concern in the health sector will be challenging as food security becomes vulnerable to climate change.  

The national policy framework identifies the healthiness of the population to be of paramount importance. It expands indicating that health care will be provided free for all citizens as per the national health policy. Ministry of Health operates with guidance from the National Health Policy 2016-2025 and the National Health Sector Master Plan 2016-2025.   

Climate change impacts on the Health Sector: Any increase in global average temperature is projected to affect human health with negative consequences. Heat-related morbidity and mortality, ozone depletion related mortality and risks for vector-borne diseases increasing in numbers and range are all predicted with a high level of confidence. Undernutrition and risks of water-and-vector borne diseases will substantially increase with global average temperature rise by 2°C^[39]. In Sri Lanka, major risk factors relating to climate change are; high temperature related heat stress, temperature and humidity-related vector population increase, migration of vector-borne disease range to higher altitudes and other areas (dengue/filaria) or resurgence of presently controlled vector-borne diseases (malaria), water-borne diseases such as chronic kidney disease, typhoid,  climate induced disaster frequency and intensity increase related health risks such as floods/droughts/poor water quality. Climate change could exacerbate existing nutrition-related issues, poor nutrition due to persistent disaster exposure and chronic undernutrition from food insecurity. Air pollutants, higher temperatures and humidity increase could worsen respiratory diseases.

Adaptation in the Health Sector: Health sector adaptation targets are presented under six NDCs (Table 5.1.7) covering policy level initiatives to mainstream targeted climate resilience actions, improved capacity to manage climate influenced health and disease conditions, addressing air pollution related health impacts and reduce morbidity and mortality from climate induced disasters.  

Table 5.1.7: NDCs in Health Sector 

5.1.8 Urban Planning and Human Settlement Sector 

Sri Lanka’s urban population is 18.7% and expected to reach 21% in 2030^[40]. The above statistics are based on the existing definition of ‘urban’ counting populations living in defined Municipal Councils (MCs) and Urban Councils (UCs). It is believed that the actual urban population is higher. Urban sprawl is increasingly evident throughout the country giving rise to many issues including increased demand for services, increased congestion and disaster-related impacts, health risks, inappropriate housing, urban heat island effect and low-living standards of urban poor. 

The government, in its new policy framework,^[41] emphasise rural development and providing services and infrastructure facilities equally across the urban and rural sectors. The concept of agro industrialization has been proposed to de-urbanize burgeoning cities and the government has launched many projects to bridge the infrastructure and service divide. Ministry of Urban Development and Housing sets the policies for urban development. National Physical Planning Policy (2019) and the National Physical Plan 2017–2030 provides the overall framework and guidelines for spatial planning. Urban Development Authority Act (Amended) No. 36 of 2007 and respective Urban Development Authority Planning and Building Regulations provides the mandate for the Urban Development Authority (UDA) to undertake urban planning and land allocation. 

Climate change in the Urban sector: Outmigration in agriculture-dependent communities as climatic threats worsen is expected to overpopulate cities across the world. This could lead to the expansion of unplanned, low-income settlements in urban centres that face a multitude of vulnerabilities.^[42]

Human settlements have two distinct and obvious threats from climate change. Higher temperatures will create inhospitable conditions in both urban/suburban areas across the country. Urban heat islands will amplify the impact of heatwaves in cities. Day and night-time temperatures increase will have an impact on energy consumption for cooling. In the Dry Zone, higher temperatures, high evaporation rates and longer dry spells will cause water shortages. Drought related water shortages are already evident in cities located in the higher watersheds -such as Nuwara Eliya and Badulla. Large and expanding urban areas in the Wet Zone may also face similar challenges as demand grows with urban expansion.  

The second climate-related risk to human settlements is the increased frequency of weather-related disasters, increased risk of flood, drought and landslides.^[43] Positive rainfall anomalies for the Wet Zone indicate that towns already at flood risk in the south-western quarter of the country will have heightened risks. Plantation worker housing in the hill country is particularly susceptible to landslides, and their vulnerability is higher due to poor housing conditions and economic status. Sri Lanka’s coastal zone is densely populated, especially in the western/southern areas. Amongst other climate change-related issues in coastal areas, drinking water schemes are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and salinity intrusion.  

Adaptation in the Urban Planning and Human Settlement Sector: Adaptation measures are organized under four NDCs (Table 5.1.8). They reflect the need for improved planning, integrating disaster risk reduction and future climate threats, enhancing climate resilience in the built environment and minimizing impacts of slow-onset climate change events. Some of these adaptation measures (urban forestry, environmentally friendly transportation and green buildings) will have certain climate mitigation benefits which are not accounted for in the targets set in Chapter 4. Table 5.1.8: NDCs in Urban Planning and Human Settlement Sector 

5.1.9 Tourism and Recreation Sector 

The tourism sector was the third-largest foreign exchange earner in 2019 for Sri Lanka. The sector’s contribution and foreign exchange earnings have nearly doubled in four years from US$ 2.4 billion in 2014 to US$ 4.3 billion in 2018. The number of tourists also grew over this period from 1.5 million to 2.3 million.  Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority estimated that the sector employs 250,000 people directly and up to 2 million, indirectly.^[44] Tourism in Sri Lanka has had several major setbacks including the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks in 2019 and the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-2021. 

Investment in tourism-related enterprises/infrastructure and the government’s vision to grow tourism into its top foreign exchange earner will support the industry to recover from the current crisis. However, post-Covid tourism development will need to give due recognition to climate risks such as rising temperatures, sea-level rise and increasing natural disasters.  

Tourism has been identified as one of the most important service sectors for earning foreign exchange in the current development policy framework, which sets a very ambitious target of USD 10 billion annual earnings from the sector by 2025. Further, it highlights the potential for catering to the growing health tourism sub-sector and community-based tourism. The strategic positioning of Sri Lanka in the international tourism market is provided by the Tourism Strategic Plan 2017-2020 (currently being updated), and the new tourism policy which is under development. Sri Lanka’s next five-year tourism strategic plan and policy framework will incorporate the guiding principles spelt out in the Roadmap for Covid-19 recovery Putting People First: Building a More Resilient Tourism Sector in Sri Lanka and the Tourism Strategic Action Plan (2020-2022) developed by Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority  for post-Covid tourism. 

Climate risks to the Tourism Sector: Global warming has already affected tourism, with anticipated increased risks projected even under 1.5°C of warming, and impacting seasonal tourism depending on sun and beach. Risks for tourism activities in tropical and sub-tropical regions will increase due to heat extremes, storms, loss of beaches and degradation of coral reef resources.^[45]

The majority of tourist destinations in Sri Lanka (approximately 60%) are in coastal areas where elevation is less than 2m from the sea-level. In addition, climate change impacts on the natural resources that tourism depends upon, such as inland water bodies, rivers, mountains, forests, marine biodiversity including coral reefs, are significant and already visible. Long droughts will impact visitation in wildlife parks and forest reserves. Meanwhile, due to warmer temperatures and heat stress, the sector vulnerability could be further increased. Furthermore, meeting water requirements for tourism establishments in drier destinations (north, north-west and east) will become increasingly challenging. Tourism establishments could face higher insurance costs against frequent disasters such as floods 

(Kalutara, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Batticaloa and Ampara districts) and landslides (Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kandy, Matale, Badulla districts). Therefore, the NDCs for the sector address building resilience of the sector to anticipated changes.   

Adaptation in the Tourism Sector: Tourism sector adaptation targets are presented under three NDCs (Table 5.1.9) covering sustainable tourism practices, sector risk reduction and resilience building measures incorporating the green building concept. The NDCs for the tourism sector includes energy efficiency and green building, landscaping-related activities which will provide mitigation co-benefits but are not accounted for in the mitigation actions described in Chapter 4. 

Table 5.1.9: NDCs in Tourism Sector 

Chapter 6: Loss and Damage NDCs 

Climate-related hazards pose a significant threat to Sri Lanka’s economic and social development. The Global Climate Risk Index Report ranks Sri Lanka second among the countries most affected by extreme weather events in 2017, and one of ten countries most affected in 2018. There were several large-scale disaster events in recent years such as severe droughts in 2011 and 2016, and major floods and landslides in 2011, 2014, 2016, and 2017.  Extended drought and floods in 2016 and 2017 disrupted two rice cultivation cycles and affected over 2 million people according to government estimates, curtailing economic growth and causing food inflation^[46]. The estimated damages and losses from the floods and landslides in May 2016 were over USD 473 million and in May 2017 it was estimated at USD 368 million^[47]. Reconstruction needs respectively were estimated at US$ 960 million and US$ 790 million. In 2017, the contingent liability of the government was LKR 23.8 billion (US$ 149 million) or approximately 1% of total government expenditure^[48]. Historical data show an increasing trend in the frequency and severity of floods. Further, Sri Lanka needs to confront slow-onset climate hazards such as sea-level rise, salinization, desertification etc. which could lead to severe consequences such as lack of potable water, loss of agriculture and food production, loss of biodiversity and habitats.  

World Bank study on South Asia’s Hotspots^[49] estimated that 87% of Sri Lanka’s population lives in moderate or severe hotspots. It is reported that, there were 64 extreme weather events over the period from 2000 to 2015. By 2050, potential impacts due to climate change are foreseen to be approximately a 1.2 % loss of annual GDP. It is estimated that the government could be facing US$380 million losses each year from climate-related disasters. If infrequent disasters such as cyclones or severe floods occur, this will be much larger. Further, it is estimated that Sri Lanka could face housing/roads/ losses and relief needs related to natural disasters of more than SL Rs 237 billion (US$ 1.8 billion) once every 100 years. This is equivalent to 2.4% of GDP and 14.2% of total government expenditures, taken as the total 2013 estimated expenditure figure^[50]. These estimates do not include long term losses related to economic displacement, effects on levels of poverty, social security, implications on health, education, gender and other social issues. Further, eroding of natural assets, watersheds, cultural monuments, tourism hotspots/ beaches etc., have not been accounted for in these calculations.  

Loss and Damage revisions in 2020

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) revision process is an opportunity to draw attention to the national relevance of averting, minimizing, and addressing disaster losses and damages. These revisions are built around recent work on understanding disaster losses and damages that include:  

-    Disaster Information Management System - DesInventar Database (http://www.desinventar.lk ) contains historical information on losses from natural and man-made disasters in Sri Lanka since 1974. Work is in progress to develop an online sector-wise loss and damage (L&D) reporting system by the Disaster Management Centre supported by the World Bank. 

-    Ongoing projects such as the Climate Resilience Multiphase Programmatic Approach supported by the World Bank. The project components include forecasting and early warning of high impact weather, floods, and landslides; upgrading and expanding the hydrological and meteorological observation networks to ensure that these networks are well functioning and interoperable.  

-    ‘Improving  Meteorological Observation, Weather Forecasting & Dissemination Project’ supported by JICA was initiated in 2014 to provide equipment and training to the Department of Meteorology aiming at the build-up of reliable observation and forecast techniques for extreme weather phenomena (heavy rain, strong wind, thunder, etc.) and proper dissemination of information on weather in a user-friendly manner. 

-    Post Disaster Needs Assessments conducted following floods and landslides in 2016 and 2017 assessed the damages and losses that occurred in the social, productive, infrastructure sectors and the implications related to cross-cutting issues. Further, key development sector professionals have been trained by the UNDP in 2017 on conducting damage and loss assessment as part of the Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) methodology. 

The recommended approach for managing climate-related L&D is to take a comprehensive approach similar to the framework for managing climate and disaster risk (Figure 6.1) that builds on the current technical investments and operational framework for disaster risk management. Understanding the full spectrum of risk, and future damage and losses due to climate change require a broader process and greater data availability. However, Sri Lanka will base its current NDCs (2021-2030) on institutional and coordination mechanisms that operationalizes the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030) and the Warsaw International Mechanism.   This includes a comprehensive understanding of risks associated with hydro-meteorological disasters aggravated by climate change, natural processes impacted by climate change contributing to new hazards and disasters, a strong data collection and reporting system, capacities for forecasting and early warning, risk mitigation and risk transfer mechanisms to inform and enable risk-informed national and local development planning and investments. The updated loss and damage NDCs are presented in Table 6.1.  

Figure 6.1: An operational framework for managing climate and disaster risk (World Bank, 2013)^[51]

2013 

Table 6.1:NDCs in Loss & Damage Sector 

Chapter 7: Integrating Sustainable Development Goals and Gender to the NDCs 

The NDC revision process provided an opportunity to closely examine the alignment of proposed climate actions with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and their targets, and to analyze the gender dimensions of mitigation and adaptation priorities. 

The Paris Agreement calls for gender equality and women’s empowerment and urge member states to adopt gender-responsive approaches. The UNFCCC’s Gender Action Plan recommends gender mainstreaming in all climate change processes. Sri Lanka’s NDC review process, therefore, presented an opportunity to analyse gender disparities from a national development context, to narrow down existing disparities and identify ways to realize the optimum potential of men and women through climate action. The NDCs also provide a means to benefit from the knowledge and capabilities, specifically of Sri Lanka’s educated and literate female population, when implementing mitigation and adaptation measures. Further, gender-responsive planning and implementation of NDCs ensure that climate actions do not contribute to creating or widening gender disparities, and that they contribute to achieving the national gender equality goals and commitments.  

The government of Sri Lanka has advanced its policy commitments to gender equality and women’s empowerment. The National Development Policy Framework Vistas of Prosperity and Splendor aspires women to be economically and socially empowered and specifies strategies that recognize and enable women’s contribution to the economy and society. The NDCs provide a vehicle to support these national policy commitments on gender equality. Analysis conducted during the NDC revision process, proposes a multi-step approach to integrate gender into 10-year NDC implementation plans by sector. This includes sector-specific gender analysis where needed, developing gender-responsive actions, improving capacities to engage women in planning and monitoring of NDCs and allocating budgets/resources for gender-responsive actions (Figure.7.1). 

Figure 7. 1: Approach to gender responsive implementation 

NDC-SDG Interlinkages 

Sri Lanka achieved many of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) ahead of time. The country was signatory to the new global development agenda in 2015 committing to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and targets therein by 2030.  

In 2018, a study of which factors would accelerate the pace of SDG achievement in Sri Lanka, found climate change integration into development planning to be among the top ten such ‘accelerators’.^[53] It transpired through this study that integrating climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning (SDG target 13.2) and ensuring sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices (SDG Target 2.4) were among the ten most important development accelerators for Sri Lanka.

During the NDC revision process alignment of the proposed climate actions with the SDG framework of 17 goals and 169 targets was reviewed. A more detailed review was undertaken for mitigation targets proposed in these NDCs to determine if these actions negatively impact SDG achievement. The analysis used the SDG Climate Action Nexus tool (SCAN-tool).^[54]  The analysis found over 270 interlinkages with the majority being positive interactions complementing the SDG targets. Strong positive interlinkages were observed on SDG 7 (affordable and clean energy), SDG 8 (decent work and economic growth), SDG 9 (industry, innovation and infrastructure) and SDG 11 (sustainable cities and communities) whereas some trade-offs or mixed interactions were observed on SDG 1 (no poverty), and SDG 15 (life on land). Agriculture sector NDC actions have numerous synergies and interlinkages to most SDGs except for SDG 1 and SDG 15. Transport sector actions indicate a few trade-offs for SDG 6, 14 and 15. Nevertheless, the sector has a large number of complementing activities to SGDs. 

Even though a significant contribution of the power (electricity) sector’s NDC actions can be expected for many SDGs, some trade-offs on SDG 1,2 3, 6 and 14 are observed, indicating that renewable energy proliferation may have impacts on agriculture and water. It is important to understand negative corelations and institute necessary safeguard mechanisms during implementation. Industry, forestry, and waste NDC actions are mostly synergistic with SDGs.  

Figure 7.2: Summarized interactions between main sectors and their mitigation actions and SDGs 

Colour chart depicting colour codes for the different level of NDC-SDG interlinks  

In this document, development co-benefits of adaptation NDCs are descriptively tagged with corresponding SDG targets (see table 7.1 below) to demonstrate direct positive correlations and possible trade-offs. In general, all adaptation NDCs respond to targets on understanding vulnerability and improving resilience under Goal 13 on climate action. Another SDG target that positively correlates to a number of NDC actions is Target 1.5 on reducing death and damages from extreme weather events and promoting the resilience of vulnerable people. Sectoral adaptation measures, generally, align with targets under sector-specific SDGs. This is strongly observed in NDCs for Agriculture, Health, Biodiversity, Coastal, Fishes, Urban Settlements and Water. There are areas, where SDG achievement may exacerbate climate vulnerability or impact climate action. SDGs emphasize continued economic growth and development prioritizing food security, incomes, water and sanitation facilities, housing, energy and industrial growth. Achieving these development goals could well compromise long term resilience, especially of fragile eco-systems (coastal, forests and watersheds) and expose more communities to climate hazards in the future. The country’s National Sustainable Development Policy, therefore, underscores the need for climate-resilient and risk-incorporated development investments. 

Table 7.1: Linkages between SDGs and adaptation NDCs

Chapter 8: Means of Implementation 

To fully implement the climate actions contained in these NDCs, Sri Lanka will require finance, technology transfer and capacity building in line with Article 4 of the UNFCCC and Articles 9, 10 and 11 of the Paris Agreement. These articles are explicit on supporting developing countries to implement climate change actions and increasing mitigation ambition, considering ‘the common but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances’. Paragraph 5 of Article 4 of the Paris Agreement specifically states that “support shall be provided to developing country Parties for the implementation of this Article, in accordance with Articles 9, 10 and 11, recognizing that enhanced support for developing country Parties will allow for higher ambition in their actions.” 

While Sri Lanka presents increased mitigation ambition in this Nationally Determined Contribution, and seeks international support to realise this ambition, the country more urgently requires support for adaptation and reducing losses and damages from climate-induced disasters. This includes adaptation in agriculture, food production, water for drinking and irrigation, health and human settlements, biodiversity, and coastal protection. Improved climate forecasting, climate risk communication and early warning and comprehensive risk management framework is especially important for a country facing multiple climate hazards. 

Finance: Finance is a crucial factor in achieving the more ambitious targets. The Sri Lankan government commits public finances to support certain climate actions which are aligned with national development priorities. However, to increase ambition beyond this, the country requires external financial assistance. As a developing country that is highly vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change, enhanced finance for adaptation and low-carbon development are prerequisites to achieving the targets set out in this document. As part of the NDC revision process, extensive analysis and consultations are being undertaken to produce cost estimates for conditional and unconditional mitigation measures through 2021 and 2030.  

To meet its conditional contribution, Sri Lanka needs to mobilize substantial climate finance from mechanisms set up by the UNFCCC, the Paris Agreement and leverage bi-lateral agreements for lowcarbon development. Sri Lanka’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) will be updated with the Green Climate Fund (GCF) supported NAP Readiness Project which will develop a long-term pipeline of adaptation priorities for technical and financial assistance.  

Technology: Sri Lanka requires access to innovative adaptation technologies to build resilience; and requires mitigation-related technology transfer to enable the country to leapfrog the fossil fuel dependent technologies and steer the country towards a low-carbon economy. The NDCs can be attained with the right mix of access, affordability and scale/mix of technologies pertaining to climate smart agriculture, modern crop management methods, climate forecasting and early warning, water and irrigation conveyance, climate-smart cities and tourism infrastructure, energy generation (new renewable energy technologies) and energy storage facilities, low carbon transport and urban infrastructure, coastal resilience improvement and cutting edge agro-technology. NDC implementation and monitoring plans will outline the technology availability and needs for each NDC. Enabling the transfer of appropriate, cost-effective, and modern technology is vital to achieving low carbon development and resilience building in vulnerable countries such as Sri Lanka.  

Capacity Building: It is critical that the Paris Agreement’s capacity-building provisions are implemented successfully to enable developing countries to better implement and monitor NDCs. 

Additional technology transfer and capacity building are required to fully implement Sri Lanka’s mitigation and adaptation contributions. Some specific national needs include: 

Generic capacity-building needs to deliver the NDCs include: 

• Institutional development and strengthening, especially for overall coordination, monitoring and reporting; 
• Developing human resources through education, training, and research; 
• Networking, partnerships, and sharing of experiences across sectors and beyond; 
• Web-based tools/ICT applications/online courses to improve technical understanding and new knowledge. 

Table 8.1: Some urgent capacity needs to implement mitigation & adaptation actions 

Capacity building is also required to access climate finance through national institutions and the private sector. Private sector capacity building to develop innovative proposals on climate risk management and increasing capabilities within government and non-governmental organisations in Sri Lanka to design, cost, review and monitor climate actions leading to greater resilience is essential. Developing core capacities within the governance structure detailed below to support climate change-related awareness and communication; appraise projects, collect and disseminate data, monitor NDC-related progress and effectively communicate country-specific information, data and needs to international forums is urgently required. 

Capacity development relating to data generation and data management is essential for all sectors implementing mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage related actions. The lack of adequately refined timely and standardized data hinders development planning and execution in general. Baselines. Recent climate and disaster- related assessments^[55] demonstrate a lack of data on key indices to determine losses and damages, vulnerability and adaptation capacity, sensitivity to climatic parameters etc. 

There is significant scope to build capacity across sectors in Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of climate change actions and Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) systems that support mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage sectors. This is critical to deliver the 10-year NDC implementation and monitoring plans effectively and efficiently. Robust MRV systems will enhance investor confidence and improve resource mobilization opportunities. Some of the capacity needs specific to MRV/ M&E systems and resource mobilization include; 

• Developing local climate vulnerability/resilience assessments using data and analytical tools;  
• Tools and analysis to differentiate between business-as-usual development scenarios vs climate change impacts and forecasted impacts;  
• BAU emissions scenario and potential GHG emission reduction pathways for some mitigation sectors and mitigation actions; 
• Putting in place procedures to facilitate data availability to measure the impact (to measure change through time). 

The consultations undertaken through the NDC revision process have created momentum for ongoing engagement in climate actions in each sector. It is important to recognize that technical knowledge resides with national experts and sector specialists. Any capacity building and effective application of technology for mainstreaming climate change must draw from the in-country experience and facilitate cross learning between climate change experts and subject matter experts from sectors. Building on the momentum created through the NDC revision process, it is important that sector specialists are enabled to guide the mainstreaming of climate actions (NDCs) into sectoral plans and strategies. 

Implementation Mechanism  

Sri Lanka has taken several steps to strengthen the country’s readiness to face climate change. The Climate Change Policy of Sri Lanka (2012) provides the overarching framework that guides country priorities. In order to support NDC implementation and monitoring and to support the mainstreaming of climate actions into sectoral plans, Sri Lanka prepared a Readiness Plan 2016-2019 to identify and meet the pre-requirements for NDC implementation. The implementation and monitoring of the revised NDCs presented in this document will be supported through the below institutional framework (Figure 8.1), which builds on the experience of the Readiness Plan. This institutional architecture will be coordinated by the Ministry of Environment as the national focal point for the UNFCCC. 

1) National Steering Committee for NDC Implementation

The Government of Sri Lanka will establish an inter-agency National Steering Committee (NSC) chaired by the Secretary, Ministry of Environment to oversee the implementation of NDCs. The NSC will have representation from secretaries of line ministries in charge of NDC sectors. Further, the NSC will have representation from and closely coordinate with the Ministry of Finance, National Planning Department, Department of Fiscal Policy, National Council for Sustainable Development.  

The National Steering Committee will be responsible to oversee the implementation of NDCs in their intended manner, with adequate inter-agency cooperation on actions that require collaboration between multiple agencies. The NSC will further ensure policy coherence at the highest level, prevent duplication of efforts, present practical solutions to implementation barriers, monitor overall progress against timelines. From a national development perspective, it is important to consider synergies and development co-benefits between climate action and other sustainable development goals – including gender equality and women’s empowerment. These are identified as preconditions for successful implementation of the Paris Agreement and the achievement of the SDGs^[56]. Therefore, the NSC will ensure safeguards are in place for actions that may compromise SDG achievements, and liaise with the National SDG Council to report back on climate-related SDGs.  

2) Ministry of Environment & Climate Change Secretariat 

The Ministry of Environment is the national focal point for the UNFCCC. In 2008, the Climate Change Secretariat (CCS) was established as a dedicated division under this ministry. The CCS has since then instituted National Experts Committees (NECs) on Climate Change mitigation and adaptation, and an Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change. The CCS was established to support the Ministry of Environment’s role as the national focal point to UNFCCC and  climate funds (Green Climate Fund and Adaptation Fund, etc.) and is tasked with developing national GHG inventories, supporting technology transfer to adaptation and mitigation sectors, facilitate the implementation of GHG reduction and resilience building actions, climate data and knowledge repository and dissemination. The CCS also develops regular communications to the convention and the Paris Agreement. Within this institutional structure, CCS will function as the facilitator, coordinator and communicator supporting implementation and monitoring of climate action.  

3) Sectoral Planning and Monitoring Committees 

Each NDC sector will have a Planning and Monitoring Committee (PMC). These PMCs will include the relevant heads of the departments and/or institutions. The 10-year NDC implementation and monitoring plans will be supported by the above PMCs, and these plans will be fully integrated into the development plans currently being developed for each sector/line ministry covering the period 20212025/ 2030.  Integration of climate actions into the regular planning framework of all sectors above, will ensure that the NDCs are prioritised for domestic/public financing or international donor assistance. Each sectoral PMC will be headed by the Secretary of the lead ministry and be tasked with executing h the NDC implementation plans with support from the government and private sector. Each PMC should make a detailed assessment of financial, technical, and capacity requirements for NDC implementation and ensure that these needs are communicated to the NSC and CCS. The Sectoral PMC is also expected to keep records of implementation bottlenecks and ensure safeguards are in place for climate actions that could compromise sustainable development.

Figure 8.1: Institutional architecture for climate response 

Acronyms 

ADB - Asian Development Bank 

AER - Agro-Ecological Regions  

BAU - Business as Usual Scenario 

BMS – Building Managing System  

BRT - Bus Rapid Transit 

BRT - Bus Rapid Transport 

BtM - Behind-the-meter  

CCC - Climate Change Secretariat 

CCD - Department of Coast Conservation and Coastal Resource Management 

CO₂ - Carbon dioxide  

COP26 - 26^th Conference of Parties  

CSA – Climate-Smart Agriculture 

DAD – Department of Agrarian Development  

DoI – Department of Irrigation 

DRM - Disaster Risk Management 

DRR - Disaster Risk Reduction 

DSM - Demand Side Management 

DWC - Department of Wildlife Conservation  

EAFM - Ecosystem-based Approach to Fisheries Management  

EEI&C - Efficiency Improvement and Conservation Programme 

EST - Environmentally Sustainable Transport 

FD - Department of Forest Conservation  

FMA - Fishery Management Areas  

GBG - Green Building Guidelines  

GCF - Green Climate  

GDP - Gross Domestic Production 

GFDRR- Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery 

GHG - Greenhouse Gas  

GSTC - Global Sustainable Tourism Council

GWh - Gigawatt hours 

HEM - High-Efficiency Motors  

HHAP - Heat – Health Action Plan  

IAS - Invasive Alien Species 

ICAT - Initiative for Climate Action Transparency  

ICT - Information Communication Technology 

IP - Industrial Parks 

IPM - Integrated Pest Management  

IPNS - Integrated Plant and Nutrition Systems 

IPPU - Industrial Process and Product Use  

IRBM - Integrated River Basin Management  

ISO - International Organization for Standardization 

L&D - Loss and Damage  

LA - Local Authorities 

LCA -Life-cycle assessment 

LED - Light-emitting diode 

LKR - Sri Lankan Rupee 

LNG - Liquified Natural Gas  

LRT - Light rail transit  

M&E - Monitoring and Evaluation  

MASL - Mahaweli Authority of Sri Lanka 

MC - Municipal Council 

MDGs - Millennium Development Goals 

MoE - Ministry of Environment 

MoH - Ministry of Health 

MRV - Measuring, Reporting, and Verification  

MSL - Mean Sea Level 

MSW - Municipal Solid Waste 

MT - Metric Tons 

MW - Megawatt 

NAMA - Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions  

NAP - the National Adaptation Plan  

NaPID - National Policy for Industrial Development

NAQDA- National Aquaculture Development Authority 

NCD - Non-Communicable Diseases  

NDC- Nationally Determined Contributions 

NEC - National Experts Committees  

NG - Natural Gas 

NGRS - National Green Reporting System  

NHSPEC - the National Strategic Plan for Health, Environment and Climate Change  

NPP - National Physical Plan 

NRW - Non-revenue Water  

NSC - National Steering Committee  

OAP - Overarching Agriculture Policy  

PA - Protected Areas 

PDNA - Post Disaster Needs Assessment  

PDoL- Provincial Department of Irrigation 

PES - Payment for Ecosystem  

PMC - Planning and Monitoring Committee  

R&D - Research & Development 

RECP – Resource Efficient Cleaner Production  

SDG - Sustainable Development Goals  

SL GAP - Sri Lanka Good Agriculture Practices  

SLR - Sri Lanka Railway 

SLTDA - Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority 

SMART - Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, and Timely 

STEM - Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics 

TC – Technical Committee

THI - Temperature Humidity Index  

TNC - Third National Communication  

ToU - Time of Use  

TROF - Trees Outside Forests  

UC - Urban Council 

UDA - Urban Development Authority 

UN - United Nations 

UNDP - United Nations Development Programme 

UNFCCC - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 

USD - U.S. Dollar 

VFD - Variable Frequency Drives  

WMAWP - Waste Management Authority of Western Province 

WP - Western Province