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Samoa’s Second

Nationally Determined Contribution

Table of Contents

Appendices

Appendix A:    Information to facilitate clarity, transparency, and understanding of

                          Samoa’s Second NDC                                                                                          15

Appendix B:     Summary of Samoa’s emissions profile                                                                   24

Appendix C:     Review of First NDC (2015)                                                                                   25

Appendix D:     Key inputs and feedback from stakeholders                                                            26

Tables

Table 3.1: Mitigation targets, means, and requirements                                                                    9

Table 4.1: Adaptation targets, means, and requirements                                                                 12

Table 6.1: Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding of

                 Samoa’s Second NDC 15

Table 6.2: Summary of Samoa’s GHG emissions in 1994, 2000, and 2007                                       24

Table 6.3: GHG emissions from the energy sector in Samoa (2007)                                                24

Table D.1: Number of projects that can be implemented at the same time in each sector                  26

Table D.2: Key institutions and their capacity to implement GHG mitigation projects                         27

Abbreviations and Acronyms

AFOLU                    Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use

UNFCCC                  United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

1. Executive Summary 

Samoa  is          an        island   nation   located in         the       Pacific  Ocean, that      is          made    up        of         nine      (9)        volcanic islands  –two     of         which are Savai’i and Upolu. Upolu is the most populated where the capital city Apia is located, and Savai’i is the largest of the nine. 

Samoa is extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts due to its geographic location, status as a Small Island  Developing       State    (SIDS)  in         the Pacific, and      the       importance        of         natural  resources         to         its         main     economic          sectors of         fisheries,           agriculture, and      tourism. Samoa is          only      responsible       for        an        insignificant       proportion         of         global   greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite this, Samoa is keen to play its part in global climate change mitigation efforts. 

Samoa is experiencing higher average temperatures, greater frequency in extreme daily rainfall events, and sea level rise^[1],                       as        well      as increases          in         ocean   acidification       and      coastal erosion^[2]. Changing weather patterns and natural disasters are impacting Samoa’s settlements, as 70 percent of the population and infrastructure are located in low-lying coastal areas.^[3] Climate change and variable weather patterns are also impacting the country’s           primaryindustries,         such     as        agriculture        and      fishing.             

Predicted increases in extreme weather conditions from climate change indicates that Samoa will face even greater impacts in the future, in addition to living with the constant threat of earthquakes and tsunamis. These impacts, combined with the recent economic shock caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, are making the Government’s poverty alleviation and national development goals more challenging. 

According to Samoa’s Second National Communication (SNC) to the United Nations Framework Convention Climate Change (UNFCCC), Samoa emitted a total of 352.03 Gg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO e) in 2007. 2

The energy sector accounted for 50 percent of this total, the agriculture forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector accounted for 38 percent, the waste sector accounted for 9 percent, and the industrial processes and product use (IPPU) sector accounted for 3 percent. 

As a leader in climate action and committing to the urgency of the Paris Agreement, Samoa has developed its Second NDC undertaking an inclusive stakeholder engagement process with key national stakeholders, ministries,   and      departments,     with      the       technical           assistance        and      support of the       Regional           Pacific  NDC     Hub      and      the       Global  Green   Growth Institute (GGGI), in         collaboration     with      the       strategic advisory            firm      Castalia.

Considering its negligible GHG emissions and limited resources, as well as the ongoing disruption and uncertainty brought about    by        the       COVID-19 pandemic,         Samoa’s           Second NDC     is          ambitious          and      reflects the       urgency of the Paris Agreement. 

Mitigation

Samoa aims to reduce overall GHG emissions by 26 percent in 2030 compared to 2007 levels (or by 91 Gg CO₂e compared to the new reference year⁴ once Samoa’s GHG emissions inventory has been updated).⁵

This      economy-wide   emissions         reduction          target   comprises         the       following           sector-specific   mitigation          targets:

▪  Energy - reduce GHG emissions in the energy sector⁶ by 30 percent in 2030 compared to 2007 levels (or by 53 Gg CO₂e compared to the new reference year once the GHG emissions inventory is updated).⁷

▪  Waste - reduce GHG emissions in the waste sector by 4 percent in 2030 compared to 2007 levels (or by 1.2 Gg CO₂e compared to the new reference year once the GHG emissions inventory is updated).

▪  AFOLU - reduce GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector by 26 percent in 2030 compared to 2007 levels (or by 35.2 Gg CO₂e compared to the new reference year once the GHG emissions inventory is updated).

Adaptation

Samoa’s           National            Climate Change Policy   2020     –          2030     provides           the       framework        for        both      national adaptation and      mitigation actions through a whole-of-country approach to build resilience to the impacts of climate change.  At the community level, Samoa has developed Community Integrated Management (CIM) Plans which identify prioritized adaptation actions by all of Samoa’s 368 villages to enhance their climate resilience. This work builds on Samoa’s successful implementation of its National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) in 2005. 

Building on        current  adaptation        actions, Samoa identifies           the       following           quantitative       targets  that      contribute         to adaptation        in         the       marine  and      AFOLU sectors:                        

        ▪  Marine - expand the area of mangrove forests in Samoa by 5 percent by 2030 relative to 2018.⁸

▪  AFOLU - expand the area under agroforestry to an additional 5 percent of agricultural land by 2030 relative to 2018.⁹

▪  AFOLU - manage forests sustainably and increase total forest cover by 2 percent by 2030 relative to 2013.¹⁰

It is expected that these adaptation targets will also contribute to mitigation.¹¹

Mitigation          and      adaptation        targets  are       conditional        on        external financial            support.                        

4                Gross         emissions  of               352.03       Gg              in               2007          are             taken         as               the             baseline     for              this            overall       target.       Samoa’s     last                  comprehensive           GHG           inventory   was            prepared   in               2007.         It                monitored the             years          2000          to               2007          for              each           sector.       Samoa                  is                in               the             process      of               updating    its              GHG           inventory   to               reflect        changes     since          2007.         However,   given          the             urgency     of                  developing a                Second      NDC           for              Samoa,      the             Government                of               Samoa       has             used          2007          data           to               develop     this            Second                  NDC.          SIDS           have          flexibility   in               their          submissions                under         the             Paris          Agreement,                 therefore   Samoa       has             included    this                  alternative specification                of               the             overall       mitigation  target        to               ensure       it                can             use             updated     information                 on              national                  emissions  when         this            becomes    available.

5                This            overall       target,       and            the             subsidiary  sector-specific             targets,      are             set             based         on              the             aggregate  emissions  reduction  potential   of                  a                pipeline     of               climate      change       mitigation  projects     identified   in               Samoa’s     NDC           Implementation          Roadmap   and            NDC           Investment                  Plan.                  The            economy-wide            target        accounts    for              emissions  reductions from          adaptation actions,      therefore   it                is                greater      than           the             sum           of                  the             energy,      waste,        and            AFOLU       sector        mitigation  targets.

6                To              ensure       accuracy    against       GHG           emissions  reported    in               2007,         the             energy       sector        includes     the             electricity, land           transport,  maritime                  transport,  and            tourism      sub-sectors.                 While         emissions  from          these         sub-sectors                  were          not             reported    in               a                way            that            would                  allow          Samoa       to               form          sub-sector targets       relative      to               the             2007          emissions  inventory   baseline,    Samoa       would        like             to               put                  forward     to               following   mass-based                 sub-sector GHG           emissions  reduction  targets       that            can             be              applied      relative      to               the             new                  reference  year           once          the             GHG           emissions  inventory   is                updated:  Electricity  44.2           Gg              CO₂e          

• Land          transport   5.2             Gg              CO₂e          
• Maritime   transport   3.0             Gg              CO₂e          
• Tourism     0.5             Gg              CO₂e          

Each           sub-sector has             specific      means       to               achieve      the             overall       energy       sector        target.       

7                To              avoid         double       counting,   the             GHG           emissions  reductions of               the             100            percent      renewableelectricity  sector        project       is                taken         as                  the             total           GHG           emissions  reduction  potential   in               the             electricity  sub-sector.                  

8                Samoa       has             set             an              area-based                  target        for              mangrove  restoration                  using          recent        land           cover         estimates  from          2018.         It                  is                expected   that            expansion  of               mangrove  forests       will             also            contribute to               climate      change       mitigation, however,   Samoa’s     2007          emissions                  inventory   did             not             include      data           on              marine       sector        emissions  and            removals,  so               it                was            not             possible     to               set             a                  percentage-based       target        for              emissions  reductions in               this            sector.       

9                According  to               the             FAO,          the             area           of               land           used          for              agriculture in               Samoa       in               2018          was            approximately             75,700                  ha.             Data           on              land           use             is                recorded   on              the             FAO’s         FAOSTAT   database,  available    at:              http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL                  Accessed   on              26              May           2021.         

10              The            total           forest         area           in               Samoa       was            165,049     ha              in               2013.         This            figure         is                taken         from          the             National    Land                  Cover         Map           (2013),       developed by              MNRE        in               consultation                with           the             Japan         International               Cooperation                System.     

11              The            expected   GHG           emissions  reduction  potential   of               the             three         adaptation targets       were          taken         into            account     when         determining                the                  GHG           emissions  reduction  targets.      

2. National Circumstances 

Geographical characteristics 

The Independent State of Samoa consists of two main islands, Savai’i (1,700 square kilometers) and Upolu (1,100 square kilometers), and eight smaller islands, making up a total land area of 2,900 square kilometers.^[4] The capital, Apia, is located on Upolu. Samoa has an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of 120,000 square kilometers.^[5] Samoa has mountainous terrain as well as narrow coastal settlements.^[6]  

Climate profile

Samoa  has       a          tropical climate with      two       distinct  seasons:           a          hot       and      wet       season (November—April)        and      cool and      a          dry       season (May—October).           Samoa's           annual  mean    rainfall  ranges  from     3,000    to         6,000    millimeters,       with approximately 70 percent of annual rainfall occurring in the hot and wet season. The south to southeast regions of the main islands experience more rainfall than the north to northwest regions. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)^[7] brings lower than average rainfall for Samoa and is associated with droughts and forest fires.     La        Niña^[8]    brings   above   average            rainfall, and      is          associated        with      flooding of         low-lying           areas,   particularly in         and around Apia.¹⁷ The mean annual temperature ranges from 26 to 31 degrees Celsius.^[9] Humidity is high, at approximately 80 percent. Southeast trade winds dominate Samoa all year round.^[10]

Samoa is experiencing greater maximum air temperature, greater frequency in extreme daily rainfall events, sea level rise of 5.2 millimeters (mm) per annum, and maximum hourly sea level increasing at a rate of 8.2 mm per annum,^[11]     as        well      as        increases          in         ocean   acidification       and coastal erosion.^[12]  Higher sea-surface temperatures, cyclones, and longer, more frequent droughts are additional climate change-related risks for Samoa.^[13] Samoa is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because about 70 percent of the population and infrastructure are located in low-lying coastal areas,^[14] and citizens rely on the productivity of primary    industries          such     as        agriculture        and      fishing, which   have     been     adverselyimpacted          by        changing          weather patterns and natural disasters.^[15]

Population profile 

Samoa’s total population is approximately 202,500.^[16] Of this total, approximately 77 percent live on Upolu, 

22 percent live on Savai’i, and the remaining population live on the outer islands of Manono and Apolima.^[17] Approximately 19 percent of Samoa’s population live in urban areas, while 81 percent live in rural areas.^[18] The country has approximately 340 villages, which are divided into 43 districts. These districts are grouped into four regions:           Apia     Urban   Area     (AUA),  North-West       Upolu   (NWU), Rest     of         Upolu   (ROU)  and      Savaii   (SAV).^[19] Samoa’s average population density is 70 people per square kilometer.^[20]

Samoa has a relatively young population, with a median age of 22 years.^[21] More than 57 percent of the population is aged 15-64 years, 37 percent are aged under 15, while only 5 percent are 65 years old and 

above.^[22] Approximately 23 percent of Samoa’s population live below the poverty line, as of 2018.^[23] Poverty rates    have     fluctuated          over      the       past ten       years,   largely  due      to         Cyclone            Evan    (2012), Cyclone            Gita      (2018), and      the measles epidemic (2019). Poverty rates are expected to increase due to the COVID-19 pandemic.^[24]

Socio-economic background

Samoa’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year ended December 2020 was US$733 million, with a per capita GDP of US$3,630.^[25] Economic activity declined by 8 percent in the December 2020 quarter, due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.^[26] Before the pandemic, Samoa’s GDP for the year ended December 2019 was US$804 million, with a per capita GDP of US$3,970.^[27] The service sector (tertiary sector) is the largest contributing sector, making up approximately 74 percent of total nominal GDP in 2019.^[28] The primary sectors (including     agriculture        and      fisheries)          share    of         GDP     has       declined in         recent   years,   contributing       approximately   10        percent of GDP in 2019.^[29]

The total value of Samoa’s exports was US$49 million in 2019^[30], made up of approximately 28 percent reexports, and 72 percent domestically produced exports^[31]. The      top       five       exported           products           (by       trade    value)   are petroleum^[32],fresh     fish,      taro,     crude    coconut oil,        and beer^[33].  Exports are       sent      chiefly   to         American          Samoa, New Zealand, the United States, Tokelau, and Australia.^[34] Exports are subject to constraints, such as price instability, high transport costs, lack of overseas markets, and harsh weather conditions.  

3. Mitigation

3.1 Priorities for Mitigation 

According to Samoa’s SNC to the UNFCCC, Samoa’s total GHG emissions was 352.03 Gg CO₂e in 2007.^[35] 50 percent of this total comes from the energy sector, while 38 percent comes from the AFOLU sector. Waste and Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) emit 12 percent of GHGs in Samoa.^[36]

In developing this NDC, Samoa focused on opportunities to reduce emissions in the energy sector (including electricity, land transport, maritime transport, and tourism), the waste sector, and the AFOLU sector. Samoa did not develop a GHG emissions reduction target for the industrial processes and product use (IPPU) sector because:

• GHG emissions from IPPU represent only a small fraction (less than 3 percent) of Samoa’s total GHG emissions, given the absence of mineral, chemical, metal, electronics, and other manufacturing industries     as        well      as        the       limited  use       of         lubricants,         paraffin waxes,  and            solvents.
• There is a lack of data on emissions from the IPPU sector.

Samoa wishes to communicate the following targets for reducing GHG emissions in the energy, waste and AFOLU sectors, detailed in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1: Mitigation targets, means, and requirements

Waste                       ▪   Reduce GHG emissions in the                                         ▪                        Implementing                   landfill                          gas      capturing                                ▪                          Samoa                                                   requires               external                      financial                      support    and       

                                   waste sector by 4 percent in                                                            technologies                                                         to        Samoa’s                                                 landfills                                                                            technical                                                     assistance  to                                               implement                                                                           landfill                                                           gas       

                                   2030 compared to 2007 levels                                                                                                      capturing technologies 

(or by 1.2 Gg CO₂e compared to the new reference year levels once the GHG emissions inventory is updated)

Note: Targets are informed by the emissions reduction potential of projects in the NDC Implementation Roadmap and NDC Investment Plan (including project pipeline), which has been developed alongside Samoa’s Second

NDC. 46474849

9

3.2 Energy Sector 

Targets

Samoa aims to reduce GHG emissions in the energy sector⁵⁰ by 30 percent in 2030 compared to 2007 levels⁵¹

(or by 53 Gg CO₂e compared to the new reference year once the GHG emissions inventory is updated).⁵²

Overview of measures and requirements to achieve targets 

Electricity 

Reducing GHG emissions in the electricity sub-sector may be achieved by expanding renewable electricity generation,      introducing        monitoring        and energy  efficiency          programs,         and      introducing        grid      stabilization       and      network loss reduction programs. Samoa aims to generate 100 percent of electricity from renewable sources by 2025.    Samoawill       require  external financial            support to         achieve this       goal.     The successful        adoption           of         energy  efficiency          programs          will       require  appropriate       financing           measures         to         meet greater upfront  costs    of         energy  efficient buildings           and      appliances.       These   energy  efficiency          projects will       also      requireexternal financial            support.            Grid stabilization and network loss reduction programs will require technology transfer, capacity building, and external financial            support.

Land transport

Reducing GHG emissions in the land transport sector may be achieved by initially electrifying a percentage of vehicles in Samoa, with an incremental percentage increase each year. This shall also provide an opportunity for the inclusion of shared electric micro mobility.⁵³  The successful adoption of these measures will require further feasibility studies and assessments, public acceptance of changes to transportation modes, technology transfer,     capacity            building, and      external financial            support.

Maritime transport 

Reducing GHG emissions in the maritime transport sector may be achieved by developing shore side electricity supply      for        vessels and      reviewing the       energy  efficiency          of         maritime           transport,          introducing        renewable         energy  technologies to vessels (solar and biodiesel), and conducting studies to understand viability of low carbon transport      options. While    energy  efficiency          reviews and      development     of shore-side        electricity          supply  can       be        achieved           without external financial            support,            the       development     of renewable         energy  technologies     on        vessels and the exploration of low-carbon maritime transport options will require technology transfer, capacity building, and     external financial            support.

Tourism 

Reducing GHG emissions in the tourism sector may be achieved by implementing and monitoring energy efficiency           programs          for        appliances. The      successful        adoption           of         energy  efficient appliances        will       require  appropriate       financing           measures         to         meet greater upfront  costs,   however           these    could    be        funded  by        long-term          electricity costs savings. Given the lack of visitors caused by COVID-19, Samoa’s tourism sector will require grant       funding and      external financial            support to         adopt    energy  efficient appliances.

50   To        ensure       accuracy    against       GHG           emissions  reported    in               2007,         the             following   sub-sectors                  have          been          included    under         the             energy       sector:            

• Electricity  
• Land          transport   
• Maritime   transport   
• Tourism

Each           sub-sector has             specific      means       to               achieve      the             energy       sector        target.       

51   Samoa’s                last            comprehensive           GHG           inventory   was            prepared   in               2007.         It                monitored the             years          2000          to               2007          for              each            sector.       Samoa       is                in               the             process      of               updating    its              GHG           inventory   to               reflect        changes     since          2007.         However,   given          the            urgency     of               developing a                Second      NDC           for              Samoa,      the             Government                of               Samoa       has             used          2007          data           to            develop     this            Second      NDC.

52   To        avoid         double       counting,   the             GHG           emissions  reductions of               the             100            percent      renewable electricity  sector        project       is                taken         as               the            total           GHG           emissions  reduction  potential   in               the             electricity  sub-sector.                  

53   Micro  mobility     refers         to               a                range         of               small,         lightweight                  vehicles     operating  at               speeds       typically     below        25              km/h          and            are            driven        by              users          personally for              short          distance     trips.          Vehicles     include      bicycles,     e-bikes,      and            e-scooters.                  This            project       envisages  the            introduction                of               shared       e-scooters.                  

3.3 Waste Sector 

Targets

Samoa set the target of reducing GHG emissions in the waste sector by 4 percent in 2030 compared to 2007 levels^[41] (or by 1.2 Gg CO₂e compared to the new reference year once the GHG emissions inventory is updated).  

Overview of measures and requirements to achieve targets 

Reducing          GHG    emissions         in         the       waste   sector   may      be        achieved           by        installing           geomembranes on landfills in         Samoa to         capture landfill   gas       (mainly methane           from     the       anaerobic         decomposition   of         organic material). The      successful        adoption           of         this       measure           will       require  technology        transfer,            capacity            building,            and external financial            support.

3.4 AFOLU Sector 

Targets

Samoa set the target of reducing GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector by 26 percent in 2030 compared to 2007 levels^[42] (or by 35.2 Gg CO₂e compared to the new reference year once the GHG emissions inventory is updated). 

Overview of measures and requirements to achieve targets 

Reducing GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector may be achieved by improving agriculture practices through improved manure management and fertilizer use, and reforestation, forest restoration, and promoting agroforestry. The success of improving agriculture practices will require public acceptance of changes to business-as-usual           practices,          external technical           expertise,          and      external financial            support.            Reforestation,   forest    restoration, and      promotion         of         agroforestry      will       require  considerable     technical           expertise          and      external financial            support. At the national level the consent from landowners and various stakeholders is required to determine the land areas that can be used for forest restoration and reforestation that will be monitored by the designated entity. 

4. Adaptation

4.1 Priorities for Adaptation

Samoa  recognizes        that      climate change will       have     significant         impacts on        the       country, particularly        in         sectors including agriculture, health, tourism, forestry, and water as well as coastal infrastructure and marine ecosystems. These sectors and priority areas are highlighted within the Community Integrated Management (CIM) Plans and National Climate Change Policy 2020-2030.

4.2 Overview of Targets, Measures, and Requirements

In addition to building on the activities outlined in its the Community Integrated Management (CIM) Plans and current National Climate Change Policy 2020-2030, Samoa wishes to communicate the following quantitative targets for adapting to climate change in the marine and AFOLU sectors, as detailed in Table 4.1.^[43][44][45]

Table 4.1: Adaptation targets, means, and requirements

Marine ▪                   Expand the area of ▪           Mangrove restoration ▪         Samoa requires external mangrove forests in and planting programs funding support and technical Samoa by 5 percent by in coastal areas assistance to support 

                          2030 relative to 2018⁵⁶                                                                                                                                                 mangrove restoration and 

planting

It is expected that these adaptation targets will also contribute to mitigation.^[46]

4.3 Marine Sector 

Targets 

Samoa has set the target of expanding the area of mangrove forests by 5 percent by 2030 relative to 2018.^[47] Expanding the area of mangrove forest will help to protect coastal areas and communities against coastal flooding,  coastal erosion, and      storm    surges.It          will       also      provide valuable habitat  for        fish,      help      to         protect  marine  ecosystems, and enhance ecosystem services.

Overview of measures and requirements to achieve targets 

Expansion of the area under mangrove forests may be achieved through a large-scale program to plant and restore mangrove forests. The success of mangrove restoration and planting will require technical expertise, external  financial            support,            and      consent from     various stakeholders     (including coastal villages)            in         order    to         determine the areas on which mangroves will be planted and how mangroves will be planted and monitored. 

4.4 AFOLU Sector

Targets

Samoa has set two quantitative targets to contribute to adaptation in the AFOLU sector. 

Firstly, Samoa aims to expand the area under agroforestry to an additional 5 percent of agricultural land by 2030 relative to 2018.^[48]Increasing the use of agroforestry is expected to contribute to several important ecosystem services. For example, agroforestry systems help protect crops from cyclone damage, diversify agricultural       incomes,           and      reduce  riverine flood     risk.

Secondly, Samoa aims to manage forests sustainably and increase total forest cover by 2 percent by 2030 relative to 2013.^[49]  Managing forests responsibly and promoting afforestation is expected to moderate stream flow       (reducing          the       risk       of         riverine flooding and      drought),           protect indigenous        ecosystems,     preserve           cultural values, and maintain the supply of non-timber forest products.

Overview of measures and requirements to achieve targets

It is expected that expanding agroforestry will be achieved by awareness raising activities that promote traditional knowledge of agroforestry systems and provide targeted support, including providing seedlings to landholders.     Samoa can       support the       expansion         of         agroforestry      without the       need for        external financial            support,            however the success of the agroforestry program will require external technical assistance as well as consent from landholders to determine the areas on which trees will be planted and who will be responsible for planting and monitoring the trees. 

It is expected that Samoa can manage forests sustainably gradually and increase total forest cover by developing a          program            for        reforestation and      forest    restoration.       Samoa would   require  external financial            support and technical assistance to develop this program. The expansion of forest area would also require consent from various stakeholders in order to determine the areas on which forest will be planted and who will be responsible for planting and monitoring these areas. 

5. Planning Processes 

5.1 Information on the process to prepare the NDC 

Several key sectoral policies, plans, and strategies inform Samoa’s Second NDC. The Strategy for the Development of Samoa (2016) (SDS) and Samoa 2040 (2021) are Samoa’s overarching national planning documents. The SDS lays out the strategy for Samoa’s overall development based on the four pillars of sustainable development (economic, social, infrastructure, and environment). Samoa 2040 focuses on Samoa’s growth, particularly in relation to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). 

Other key documents include the Samoa Climate Change Policy 2020, the National Environment Sector Plan 2017-2021, the Energy Sector Plan 2017-2022 (2017), the Energy Management Act (2020), the Transport Sector Plan 2013-2018 (2013), and the Agriculture Sector Plan 2016-2020 (ASP), as well as the National Policy for Gender Equality 2021-2031 (2021) and the Inclusive Governance Policy 2021-2031 (2021). A full list of key sectorial plans and strategies is included in Appendix A. 

The Government of Samoa has led the development of Samoa’s Second NDC. Progress towards achieving the targets     identified           in         Samoa’s First      NDC     was      reviewed           and      mitigation          and      adaptation        opportunities     to         contribute         to         this       Second NDC were     identified.          Further details  of         the       review  of         the       First      NDC     is          included            in         Appendix          C.         The work to identify mitigation and adaptation opportunities for Samoa’s Second NDC focused on identifying climate change mitigation and adaptation investment projects, which were informed by data sets, academic studies, policies, strategies, and other reports, as well as consultation workshops and meetings with national stakeholders, including government and non-government organizations, the private sector, and civil society. Given the focus on identifying climate change mitigation and adaptation investment projects rather than policy or regulatory interventions, there will likely be other opportunities to reduce emissions in Samoa beyond those used to form the targets in this NDC. 

The recommendations from the review of Samoa’s First NDC, project scoping exercise, and stakeholder consultations were integrated into the NDC Implementation Roadmap and NDC Investment Plan, discussed in section           5.2.      The      findingswere     then      validated           by        MNRE  and relevant stakeholders     through national consultation      workshops and meetings. These workshops and meetings were attended by stakeholders from government and private sector. The Second NDC was prepared building on these recommendations and a second validation process was undertaken based on the draft Second NDC. The Second NDC content had then been agreed across ministries and departments.

5.2 Information on implementation plans 

The Government of Samoa is currently developing an NDC Implementation Roadmap and NDC Investment Plan (including project pipeline). This work has been undertaken in parallel with developing Samoa’s Second NDC. The NDC Implementation Roadmap and NDC Investment Plan informs the targets included in this NDC and will support Samoa in achieving these targets by setting out practical steps and tangible projects to mitigate GHG emissions across the energy (including sub-sectors), waste, AFOLU, and marine sectors. 

6. Fairness and Ambition 

Samoa is a SIDS and its GHG emissions are negligible on a global scale. Samoa is highly vulnerable to climate change, due to its geography (with majority of the population living in low-lying coastal areas), and its reliance on    primary industries          (agriculture       and      fishing) which   have     been     particularly impacted          by        changing          weather patterns and natural disasters. Approximately 22.7 percent of Samoa’s population live below the poverty line, as of 2018.^[50]          Poverty rates     have     fluctuated          over      the       past      ten       years,   largely  due      to         Cyclone            Evan    (2012), Cyclone Gita (2018), and the measles epidemic (2019). Poverty rates are expected to increase due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impacts on the tourism sector.⁶³ Achieving the targets set out in Samoa’s Second NDC   will       require  investment        of         large     proportions       of         Samoa’s           fiscal budget  and      public   service capacity.           The      country also      requires            considerable     external financial            support,            capacity building,            and      technology        investment.       

Accounting for these national circumstances, Samoa considers its NDC to be fair and ambitious. 

Appendix A: Information to facilitate clarity, transparency, and understanding of Samoa’s Second NDC 

Table 6.1 details information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding of Samoa’s Second NDC. ^[51][52]

Table 6.1: Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding of Samoa’s Second NDC 

1. Quantifiable information on the reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year) 

a) Reference year(s), base year(s), reference The GHG     emissions           reduction            targets   in          this       NDC     are        defined  period(s) or other starting point(s) for the year 2030 and measured against a base year of 2007 (or measured against the new reference year⁶⁴ once the GHG emissions inventory has been updated). The 2007 base year was chosen to make use of the most recent comprehensive GHG inventory.   

Samoa’s 2007 emissions inventory did not include data on marine sector emissions and removals, so it was not possible to set a percentage-based target for emissions reductions in this sector. Therefore, Samoa has set an area-based target for mangrove restoration using recent land cover estimates from 2018.

–   National Environment Sector Plan (2019)

–   National Policy for Gender Equality 2021-2031 (2021)

–   Inclusive Governance Policy 2021-2031 (2021)

–   National Appropriate Mitigation Actions Plan (NAMA) (2018) 

–   Community Integrated Management Plans (CIM Plans) (2018)

–   National Environment Sector Plan 2017-2021 (NESP) (2017)

–   Strategy for the Development of Samoa (SDS) 2016-2020 (2016)

–   Samoa’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (2015)

–   Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (2009) 

–   GHG Inventory (2007)

                                                                           ▪           Electricity            sector:

–   Energy Sector Plan 2017-2022 (2017) ▪            Land     transport sector:   

–   Transport Sector Plan 2013-2018 (2013) ▪       Maritime transport sector:

–   Transport Sector Plan 2013-2018 (2013) ▪       Waste   sector:

–   National Waste Management Strategy 2019-2023 (NWMS)

–   Water and Sanitation Sector Plan (WSSP) (2017) ▪       Tourism sector:

–   Tourism Sector Plan 2014-2019 (2014) ▪          Marine   sector:

–   Samoa Ocean Strategy (SOS) 2020-2030 (2020) ▪        AFOLU  sector:

–   Agriculture Sector Plan 2016-2020 (ASP)

e) Information on sources of data used in            Government of Samoa’s Second National Communication quantifying the reference point(s)       (SNC) (2009)

a) Time frame and/or period for implementation, The implementation period of Samoa’s Second NDC is 1 including start and end date, consistent with           January 2022 to 31 December 2030 any further relevant decision adopted by the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA)

a) General description of the target Overall GHG emissions reduction of 26 percent in 2030 compared to 2007 levels^[60] (or 91 Gg CO₂e compared to the new reference year once Samoa’s GHG emissions inventory has been updated).^[61] This will be achieved by targets for each priority         sector,   which    are:       

▪   Energy—reduce        GHG     emissions           in          the        energy   sector^[62] by 30 percent in 2030 compared to 2007 levels (or by 53 Gg CO₂e compared to the new reference year once the GHG emissions inventory is updated).^[63]  

▪   Waste—reduce         GHG     emissions           in          the        waste    sector    by         4 percent in 2030 compared to 2007 levels (or by 1.2 Gg CO₂e compared to the new reference year once the GHG emissions inventory is updated).

▪   AFOLU—reduce        GHG     emissions           in          the        AFOLU  sector    by         26 percent in 2030 compared to 2007 levels (or by 35.2 Gg CO₂e compared to the new reference year once the GHG emissions inventory is updated).

▪    Marine—expand        the        area      of         mangrove           forests   in          Samoa  by         5      percent by 2030 relative to 2018.^[64]

▪    AFOLU—expand       the        area      under    agroforestry        to         an         additional           5 percent of agricultural land by 2030 relative to 2018.^[65]

▪    AFOLU—manage      forests   sustainably         and       increase total      forest cover by 2 percent by 2030 relative to 2013.^[66]

                                                                                                                            2                                                             2

Second NDC.

Stakeholders throughout this project included government officials,    technical experts,and       other     industry         representatives.   

The NDC Implementation Roadmap and NDC Investment Plan included gender responsive considerations in the form of guidelines for promoting gender and social inclusion. MNRE took a coordinating role in gathering input from stakeholders and reviewing the outputs of the project. 

a. National circumstances, such as geography, climate, economy, sustainable development, and poverty eradication

▪   Samoa is a small island developing state, comprising four main inhabited islands and six small, uninhabited islands.

▪   Samoa’s climate is characterized by high rainfall and humidity, near-uniform temperatures throughout the year, winds dominated by the south-easterly trade winds and the occurrence of tropical cyclones during the southernhemisphere summer.

▪   Samoa’s geography and economic structure make the country susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change. Agriculture        and       fishing   are        significant         economic           sectors  in          Samoa that are vulnerable to climate change. Exports are subject to a number of constraints, such as price instability, high transport costs, lack of overseas markets, and harsh weather conditions.  

▪   Tourism is also an important part of Samoa’s economy, which has been hard hit by travel restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. 

▪   Approximately 22.7 percent of Samoa’s population live below the poverty line, as of 2018.^[68]         Poverty  rates     have     fluctuated           over the past ten years, largely due to Cyclone Evan (2012), Cyclone Gita (2018), and the measles epidemic (2019). Poverty rates are expected to increase due to the COVID-19 pandemic.^[69]

▪   Samoa has made progress on its sustainable development goals (SDGs). A breakdown on Samoa’s progress can be found on the SDG Knowledge Platform.^[70]

d) Each Party with a nationally determined contribution under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement that consists of adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans resulting in mitigation co-benefits consistent with Article 4, paragraph 7, of the Paris Agreement to submit information on:

Not        applicable.          Samoa  accounts            for        mitigation           co-benefits         from      adaptation actions included in this NDC as mitigation actions, in accordance with the planning processes and approaches outlined in Section 5 of this document. 

i) How the economic and social consequences of response measures have been considered in developing the nationally determined contribution; ii)           Specificprojects, measures           and       activities to         be implemented       to         contribute           to         mitigation           co-benefits

5. Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals: 

a) Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for anthropogenic GHG emissions and removals corresponding to the country’s NDC, consistent with decision 1/ CP.21, paragraph 31, and accounting guidance adopted by the CMA: 

▪   31a. Parties account for anthropogenic emissions and removals in accordance with methodologies and common metrics assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and adopted by the Conference of the Parties 

serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement;

▪   31b. Parties ensure methodological consistency, including on baselines, between the communication and implementation of nationally determined contributions”

Samoa’s first       GHG     emission inventory            was       published           in          1999,    covering the        years     1994—1997.       Samoa’s second, and       most recent, GHG emissions inventory focused on emissions for the years     2000—2007,       and       includeda          revision  of         the        results   from      the        first GHG     inventory            to         allow     a          complete            assessment        of         national GHG emission trends. Samoa’s GHG emissions and removals in 2007 totaled 352 Gg CO₂e and 787.07 Gg CO₂e respectively. A summary of Samoa’s GHG emissions for the years 1994 (base-year), 2000, and 2007 is presented in Table 6.2.

The anthropogenic emissions and removals in Samoa’s second GHG inventory were prepared in accordance with the methodologies and common metrics described in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2006 IPCC Guidelines). However, although the 2006 IPCC Guidelines provide a comprehensive overview and categorization of all potential sources of GHG emissions, not 

b) Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for the implementation of policies and measures or strategies in the nationally determined contribution

all of them are relevant to Samoa. In addition, although certain sources  are        relevant to         Samoa,  there     are        insufficient          data      to         include them in the inventory. Samoa therefore also used the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories           as         they      better    reflected national circumstances.                

Samoa is currently updating its GHG inventory, following the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and the 2019 Refinement         to         the        2006     IPCC     Guidelines          for        National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, using the Tier 1 approach and applying default emission factors. 

When accounting for the impacts of implementing measures or strategies in the nationally determined contributions in the energy, AFOLU, and waste sectors, Samoa will follow the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories, and the 2019 Refinement    to         the        2006     IPCC     Guidelines          for        National GHG     Inventories, using the Tier 1 approach and applying default emission factors. Samoa will also apply this approach when reporting progress towards the targets set in its Second NDC.

d) IPCC methodologies and metrics used for estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals

The anthropogenic emissions and removals in Samoa’s second GHG inventory were prepared in accordance with the methodologies and common metrics described in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. However, although the 2006 IPCC Guidelines provide a comprehensive overview and categorization of all potential sources of GHG emissions, not all of them are relevant to Samoa. In addition, although certain sources are relevant to         Samoa,  there     is          insufficient          data      to         include  them     in          the inventory. Samoa therefore also used the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG inventories as they better reflected nationalcircumstances.                

iii) For Parties with nationally determined contributions that contain non-greenhouse-gas components, information on assumptions and methodological approaches used in relation to those components, as applicable

Samoa’s Second NDC contains quantitative greenhouse gas reduction targets in the energy, waste, and AFOLU, sectors.  

Given the lack of data on marine sector emissions, it was not possible to specify a numerical reduction target for emissions reductions in the marine sector. However, Samoa has set the target of expanding the area of mangrove forests by 5 percent by 2030 relative to 2018. This rests on the assumption that Samoa’s total mangrove area was 374 hectares (ha) in 2018.^[71]Increasing this area by 5 percent would require Samoa to plant 18.7 ha of new mangroves, while preventing any loss of current mangrove forests.

a) How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2

As part of its Second NDC, and its NDC Implementation Roadmap and NDC Investment Plan (including project pipeline),        Samoa  has       identified            a          clear and       transparent         target    to         reduce   overall   GHG     emissions           overall,  and       sector-specific     targets to reduce emissions in the energy, waste, and AFOLU, sectors, and adaptation targets in the marine and AFOLU sectors. Samoa will strive to increase the ambition of its NDC over          time      by         increasing its         sector-specific     targets   when     new      mitigation and adaptation opportunities arise, and by including more detailed adaptation actions in future iterations. As part of the Second NDC, and its NDC Implementation Roadmap and NDC    Investment         Plan,     Samoa  has       identified            where    financing            and capacity building is required to achieve its targets.  

Appendix B: Summary of Samoa’s emissions profile

Table 6.2 summarizes Samoa’s GHG emissions for 1994, 2000, and 2007. 

Table 6.2: Summary of Samoa’s GHG emissions in 1994, 2000, and 2007

Source: Samoa’s National GHG Inventory, 2007

Table 6.3 lists the sources of GHG emissions from the energy sector in 2007 by sub-sector. Land transport accounts for the majority of emissions from the energy sector, followed by electricity generation.  

Table 6.3: GHG emissions from the energy sector in Samoa (2007)

Source: Samoa’s National GHG Inventory, 2007

66676869707172737475767778798081828384

66 67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

Appendix C: Review of First NDC (2015)

Samoa’s First NDC focuses primarily on reducing emissions from the energy sector 

Samoa  included            the       following           goal      in         its         First      NDC:

“[Samoa is] committed to reducing its [greenhouse gas] GHG emissions from the Electricity sub-sector through the adoption of a 100% Renewable energy target for electricity generation through to the year 2025”

The Government is committed to increasing the use of renewables for electricity generation to improve sustainability         and      strengthen        Samoa’s energy  sector.  Reducing          the       use       of         fossil    fuels     can       also      have     a          significant         economic          benefit  by reducing           expenditure       on        fuel       imports.

Samoa has achieved 50 percent renewable energy generation^[72]

Some national mitigation projects have already been implemented, or are currently underway, that contribute to GHG emissions reductions in multiple sectors. For example, the passenger ferry, Lady Samoa III, recently had solar panels installed on the roof. There has also been an initiative to restore mangroves through the establishment of mangrove conservation areas. 

However, Samoa has some way to go to reach its renewable energy targets

Limited financial            capability          and      other    constraints        are       hindering Samoa’s ability to make faster progress in reducing emissions.^[73] Samoa is not on track to achieve the targets set in its First NDC. Reaching 100 percent renewable electricity generation in 2017 and maintaining this through 2025 would have reduced operational emissions from the electricity sector to zero. However, the renewable energy percentage in electricity generation in Samoa in 2021 was 50 percent.^[74] This is an increase in renewable energy share by 24 percentage points (from 26 percent in 2014). 

Although the share of renewable energy has increased, total electricity generation also increased from 126,800 MWh in 2014 to 132,000 MWh in 2019.⁸⁵ This increase in generation partially offsets the reduction in GHG emissions from increased renewable energy because fossil fuels are still used for electricity generation. 

At present, estimated operational emissions in the electricity sector is 48,225 tCO₂e per annum.^[75] Assuming the emissions intensity of non-renewable electricity production remained constant, estimated emissions from the electricity sector decreased by 12 percent between 2014 and 2019. 

There is also scope to reduce emissions in other sectors

The      First      NDC     does     not       include specific goals    for        any       sector   other    than      electricity.         Samoa’s           First      NDC indicates           significant         potential           to         reduce  emissions         in         sectors other    than      electricity,         such     as        transport (land     and      maritime),         waste, tourism, marine, and forestry sectors. However, it does not specify how this should be done, nor does it set targets for these other sectors. 

GHG emissions reductions across all sectors were framed as being conditional on Samoa receiving external financial        assistance        from     the international      community.       The      First      NDC     did        not       specify  the       projects or         policies required to realize GHG emissions reductions in sectors other than electricity.  

Opportunities in each priority sector will help determine new GHG emission targets for Samoa’s Second NDC

There    is          a          lack      of         information        on        the       current  levels   of         GHG    emissions         in         each     priority  sector— energy  (including electricity, transport (land and maritime)), waste, tourism, marine, and AFOLU. The Third National Communication and First Biennial Update Report (BUR) is currently under development, however preliminary findings         are       not       yet        available,          and      are       not       expected until      the       second half       of         2021.    The      report   will       include an        updated national Greenhouse Gas Inventory. 

While Samoa’s First NDC mentioned adaptation, it focused explicitly on mitigation

Samoa’s First NDC includes a brief section mentioning the need for adaptation to climate change.  In this section, Samoa highlights the work done to develop Samoa’s NAPA,^[76][77] notes that some progress has been made,     and      emphasizes      the       need     to         build     on        this       work     leveraging external financial            support.            However,          Samoa’s           First      NDC     does     not       set        any       specific targets  for        adaptation, and      the       adaptation        section of         the       document         explicitly           states that the focus of the First NDC is on mitigation.

Appendix D: Key inputs and feedback from stakeholders

Selection of a base year

The      base     year      for        this       NDC     is          defined by        the       Government      of         Samoa as        2007.    The      most     recent   GHG inventory          for Samoa was completed in 2007, and this contains the most recent estimates of emissions disaggregated by sector. While a new emissions inventory for Samoa is currently being developed, this will not be ready until after Samoa needs to submit its Second NDC to the UNFCCC ahead of COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. Therefore, the Government of Samoa communicates this Second NDC based on the 2007 GHG emissions inventory. 

Number of projects that can be implemented concurrently in each sector 

Stakeholders detailed the number of projects that could be implemented at the same time in each sector, summarized in Table D.1. This feedback is informed by institutional constraints and context in each sector, such as         financial            limitations,        human  capacity            constraints,       and      experience implementing    GHG    mitigation          projects.           This feedback was important when sequencing possible GHG mitigation projects⁹⁰ and enabled reasonable targets to be assigned to each sector. 

Table D.1: Number of projects that can be implemented at the same time in each sector 

Electricity                                                      5-6

91

Institutions and their capacity to implement GHG mitigation projects 

Stakeholders detailed the capacity of key institutions to implement GHG mitigation projects, detailed in Table D.2. The number of full-time staff equivalent (FTE)^[78] is calculated from the number of staff available and amount of time (in hours) each staff member has available to manage mitigation projects per week. 

Table D.2: Key institutions and their capacity to implement GHG mitigation projects 

93949596

GHG mitigation project prioritization

Stakeholders provided feedback on the prioritization of possible GHG mitigation projects, using a score from 1 to 5 (in which 1 indicates they think the project should receive the lowest priority and 5 indicates they think the project should receive the highest priority). This prioritization ensured that local expert advice was at the forefront of Samoa’s pipeline of mitigation projects.^[82]