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Tonga’s Second 

Nationally 

Determined 

Contribution

(NDC) 

December 2020 

Foreword  

The Kingdom of Tonga is a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) with a population of just over 100,000 people and as such our total contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is negligible, especially when compared to countries with far larger and more developed economies. Nevertheless, Tonga is prepared to do its part and be an example of what we are asking from the rest of the world in terms of climate action. We are convinced that Tonga’s development, need not come at the cost of our own natural environment nor of the livelihoods of future generations and we call for all countries to take the same decisive action to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as a matter of urgency.   

Critical to achieving the 1.5 ̊C goal of the Paris Agreement is the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of each country, which articulates efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Tonga is proud to be amongst the countries submitting its second NDC in 2020, as agreed under the timeline set by the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.  

This year, more than ever, it is time for every country to double-down on its climate change commitments and support the full implementation of the Paris Agreement to spare our planet from the worst effects of a future in a changing climate. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic and the impacts it has had on Tonga’s people and livelihoods, Tonga has increased its ambition to cut greenhouse gas emissions in our 2020 NDC and has laid out clear means to implement the targets that have been set, as well as providing the information required for clarity, transparency and accountability of our NDC. 

Tonga is already and will continue to be heavily impacted by climate change, including changes in temperatures, shifts in rainfall patterns, rise in sea levels, ocean acidification, and the occurrence of tropical cyclones There is no doubt that climate change is already affecting Tonga’s development, the livelihood of its people and the possible futures for our nation. While Tonga will continue to invest large portions of its public finance and service capacity in the ambitious quest to achieve our climate mitigation and resilience objectives, achieving the targets set out in Tonga’s 2020 NDC will require considerable support for financing, capacity and technology investment from external sources. Tonga will continue to do its part while counting on the support of all nations and our partners around the world. 

As the Minister of Meteorology, Energy, Information, Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Change and Communications (MEIDECC), it is indeed an honour and a privilege to submit Tonga’s 2020 Nationally Determined Contribution. 

HONOURABLE POASI TEI 

Minister for Meteorology, Energy, Information, Disaster Management, Environment, 

Climate Change and Communications (MEIDECC)

TONGA                                                 

Acknowledgements  

The Government of Tonga would like to acknowledge and thank the Regional Pacific NDC Hub and the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) for their kind and generous support to review and enhance Tonga’s NDC. Thanks, are also extended to the governments of Germany, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and 

Australia for their funding of the Pacific NDC Hub and to the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ), the Pacific Community (SPC), the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) as the implementing partners of the Hub.  

The development of the 2020 NDC of Tonga has been led by the Department of Climate Change (DCC) of the Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Change and Communications (MEIDECC) with technical assistance provided by GGGI. Notable contributions were also made by the members of the Joint National Action Plan on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management (JNAP) Technical Team and by a broad group of stakeholders who attended the national NDC workshops and consultations. Kind contributions were also made by ClimateWorks Australia (CWA) and Relative Creative (Australia).  

Table of Contents 

FOREWORD ...................................................................................................................................... I

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................. III

TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................................... IV

LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................... V

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .............................................................................................. VI

KEY MESSAGES....................................................................................................................................... VIII 

1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................................... 1 

2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES..................................................................................................................... 2 

2.1 GEOGRAPHICAL CHARACTERISTICS......................................................................................................... 2 

2.2 CLIMATE PROFILE............................................................................................................................... 2 

2.3 ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES............................................................................................................... 3 

2.4 POPULATION PROFILE......................................................................................................................... 3 

2.5 SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND.......................................................................................................... 4 

3. MITIGATION........................................................................................................................................... 5 

3.1 ENERGY SECTOR................................................................................................................................ 6 

3.2 INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE (IPPU) SECTOR........................................................................ 7 

3.3 AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND OTHER LAND USE (AFOLU) SECTOR............................................................... 7 

3.4 WASTE SECTOR................................................................................................................................. 8 

4. ADAPTATION.......................................................................................................................................... 9 

4.1 PRIORITIES AND OBJECTIVES FOR ADAPTATION.......................................................................................... 9 

4.2 OVERVIEW OF TARGETS, MEASURES AND REQUIREMENTS............................................................................. 9 

5. PLANNING PROCESS.............................................................................................................................. 12 

5.1 INFORMATION ON THE PROCESS TO PREPARE THE NDC............................................................................ 12 

5.2 INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION PLANS........................................................................................... 13 

6. FAIRNESS AND AMBITION...................................................................................................................... 14 

ANNEX.................................................................................................................................................... 15 

A1. INFORMATION TO FACILITATE CLARITY, TRANSPARENCY AND UNDERSTANDING OF TONGA’S 2020 NDC.............. 15 

A2. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TONGA............................................................................................. 26 

REFERENCES........................................................................................................................................ 34 

List of Tables 

TABLE 1. MITIGATION TARGETS, MEANS AND REQUIREMENTS ...................................................................... 5

TABLE 2. ADAPTATION TARGETS, MEANS AND REQUIREMENTS ................................................................... 10

TABLE 3. OVERVIEW OF PHENOMENA RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN TONGA .................................... 26

Acronyms and Abbreviations 

ADB                Asian Development Bank  

AFOLU        Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use  

MEIDECC    Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Change and Communications  

Nz MFAT     New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade  

UNFCCC     United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change  

WHO            World Health Organization   

Key Messages 

Key Messages 

The Kingdom of Tonga (Tonga) is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change due to its geographic location, status as a SIDS, and the importance of natural resources to its main economic sectors of fisheries, agriculture and tourism. The World Risk Report 2017 has ranked Tonga as the second most at-risk country in the world for natural hazards, including cyclones and flooding, as well as sea level rise. Although Tonga makes a negligible contribution to global GHG emissions, there is no doubt that climate change is already affecting Tonga’s development and the livelihood of its people and future. 

The impact of climate change induced phenomena such as sea level rise, ocean acidification, temperature rise and increased intensity of cyclones continue to pose a threat to the people of Tonga, its society, livelihoods, and its natural environment. Irreversible loss and damage from extreme weather events and coastal erosions are putting the Government’s poverty alleviation commitments and national development objectives at risk, and this risk is now compounded by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.  

According to Tonga’s Third National Communication (TNC) to the United Nation Framework Convention Climate Change, Tonga emitted a total of 310.4 Gg of CO₂-equivalent in 2006, with the Energy sector accounting for 39%, Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) accounting for 61%, and Waste accounting for 0.3% of total GHG emissions. Taking into account its negligible emissions and limited resources, as well as the ongoing disruption and uncertainty brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, Tonga’s second NDC is nevertheless ambitious and reflects the urgency of the Paris Agreement. Tonga’s targets for mitigation are as follows: 

x Energy: 13% (16 Gg) reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 2006 through a transition to 70% renewable electricity as well as energy efficiency measures. x AFOLU: establishment of a forest inventory as prerequisite to identify a GHG emission target for the 2025 NDC and planting one million trees by 2023. x Waste: expansion of the formal waste collection system as prerequisite to identify a GHG emission target for the 2025 NDC. 

viii

Key Messages

Adaptation to the adverse impacts of climate change within this NDC focusses on coping with the impacts of an increase in temperature and a rise in sea level. In the context of adaptation, the Government of Tonga has set three targets: 

x 30% of land in Tonga utilized for agro-forestry or forestry by 2025, x Prevent any permanent loss of land to rising sea levels on Tonga’s four main islands (i.e. Tongatapu, Ha’apai, Vava’u, and ‘Eua), 

x Maintenance of the existing stocks of fish and other marine species through a commitment to expand the area covered by Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Special Management Areas (SMAs) to 30% of the Tonga’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). 

In addition, Tonga is currently developing a Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) which will be submitted to the UNFCCC in 2021.

ix

Introduction 

1. Introduction 

The Government of Tonga (GoT) developed its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) and submitted it to the UNFCCC in 2015 and ratified the Paris Agreement on 21^st September 2016. When the Paris Agreement came into force on 4^th November 2016, Tonga’s INDC submitted in 2015 automatically became Tonga’s first NDC. 

In accordance with decision 1/CP.21, Tonga hereby communicates its 2020 NDC, its second NDC towards achieving the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as set out in its Article 2, as well as accompanying information to facilitate clarity, transparency, and understanding of its NDC. 

The process to develop Tonga’s 2020 NDC included a review of the 2015 INDC, determining the progress made to date towards achieving its targets and identifying recommendations for the formulation of the 2020 NDC. The review and the recommendations were informed by data sets, academic studies, policies, strategies, roadmaps and other reports and structured interviews with stakeholders in Tonga. The review and recommendations were discussed, comments were received and integrated, and the findings were validated by the Tonga JNAP technical team and relevant stakeholders through national workshops. The 2020 NDC was then prepared building on the recommendations which had been developed and was taken through a final validation process with the JNAP technical team and national stakeholders. The 2020 NDC was then approved by the Tongan Cabinet.   

Tonga’s second NDC is aligned with other international conventions and agreements that Tonga is a party to, including but not limited to the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Montreal Protocol. 

2. National Circumstances 

2.1 Geographical characteristics 

Tonga has four main island groups extended over a south to north axis. Tongatapu (260 km²) and ‘Eua (87 km²) in the south, Ha‘apai (109 km²) in the middle, Vava‘u (121 km²) in the north and Niuafo‘ou (15 km²) and Niuatoputapu (71.7 km²) in the far north. Nuku‘alofa is the capital of Tonga, which is located in the main island of Tongatapu.  

2.2 Climate profile 

Tonga’s tropical climate reflects its position within the southeast trade wind zone of the South Pacific. Tonga’s climate is tropical throughout the year, with two distinct seasons: namely dry season (May- October) and wet season (NovemberApril).  The northern islands of Tonga receive more rainfall than the southern islands.  

The driest month is July, and the wettest month is March. During the dry season, the rainfall level received ranges from 100.53 mm to 145.87 mm/decade while the maximum and minimum temperature varies from 24.7°C to 28.1°C/decade and from 14.71°C to 22.33°C/decade respectively. The wet season is summertime in Tonga, where the rainfall level varies from 140.85 mm to 235.73 mm/decade while the maximum and minimum temperature varies from 27.6°C to 30.3°C/decade, 20.78°C to 24.34°C/decade respectively.  

In terms of winds, the southeast trades dominate Tonga. The strength of winds is normally light to moderate with a wind speed of 10 to 16 knots at a distance of 7 to 9 km per hour which is strongly correlated to Tonga’s Southeast trade winds. During dry season, the wind speed is strong in the northern islands of Tonga with little variation in the southern islands. During the wet season, which is summertime in Tonga, tropical cyclones can bring very strong winds at a speed of 22 to more than 65 knots. Tropical cyclones have become more intense than historical records of cyclone occurrences. 

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a significant role in Tonga's climatic patterns. ENSO is associated with large year-to-year changes in the risks of drought, flood, tropical cyclones and coral bleaching throughout the region. Water temperature continues to increase by 0.0004°C since 1993. Sea level rise has also increased by 0.007 m per year since 1993. 

Climate determines the state of natural resources such as water, forest, biodiversity and other sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, tourism and health. Henceforth, Tonga is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. 

2.3 Environmental resources

Natural resources are the primary source of living for the people of Tonga. Despite being highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, natural resources are also affected by population growth and environment degradation. Forest area covers 12.5% of the lands while 43.1% is by agricultural land and 44.4% by settlement areas including roads and other transportation features, barren land/wasteland, and other construction purposes. Captured rainwater and underground aquifers are the main sources of water resources in Tonga. Water is used daily for household usage, industrial, agricultural, and commercial purposes. These uses put pressure on water resources and are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. The quality and quantity of surface water can be affected by human activities and climate change. Warmer temperature is affecting the water cycle resulting on changes of the amount of rainfall during cyclone season. The demands for water in Tonga are very high as all Tongans need water to maintain health and other economic activities.  

2.4 Population profile 

The total population of Tonga is about 100,651 as of 2016 (Department of Statistics Tonga, 2016) with 50,255 males and 50,396 females. Tongatapu remains the most populated island in the archipelago, followed by Vava‘u, Ha‘apai, ‘Eua, Niuatoputapu then Niuafo‘ou. The population decreased by 2.5% from 2011 to 2016 and this is largely due to emigration. Census data also showed that the populations of the outer islands in Tonga have also decreased with many people migrating to the main islands for education and other purposes.  

Tonga has a relatively young population, with a median age of 22 years. More than one third (39%) of the population is aged 15 years and younger, while only 9% are 60 years and older. Tongatapu’s population was 74,611, constituting 74% of Tonga’s total population. This has increased from 73% in 2011. The urban population of Tongatapu was 23,221 (23% of the total population). The average population density was 155 people per km². However, this varies widely across island division and districts, with the population density in Tongatapu being 286 people per km² compared to only 17 people per km² in the Niuas. 

2.5 Socio-economic background 

The key economic sectors in Tonga are agriculture, fisheries and tourism. Remittances to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio in 2015 was 26.5%, which shows the importance of remittances in the economy of Tonga, whereas, exports to GDP ratio was 3.3% in the same year^[1]. Gross National Income (GNI) per capita is around 4.3 thousand US dollars^[2]. Tonga is heavily dependent on imported fossil fuel to meet energy demand. The use of renewable energy is increasing but is dependent on external funding and technical support. According to Asian Development Bank (ADB) (2019) the total unemployment rate is 1.1 %, with the female unemployment rate at 2 %, higher than the male unemployment rate at 0.5 %. About 11% of the population aged 15 and older in rural areas are subsistence workers compared with only 1% of the population aged 15 and older in urban areas. 22.1% of the population in Tonga in 2015 lived under the national poverty line. Tonga’s Human Development Index (HDI) in 2015 was 0.721, slightly higher than 0.7, the average of developing countries in the same year.

3. Mitigation 

According to Tonga’s TNC to the UNFCCC, Tonga emitted a total of 310.4 Gg of CO₂-equivalent in 2006, with the Energy sector accounting for 39%, AFOLU accounting for 61%, and Waste accounting for 0.3% of total GHG emissions. However, uncertainty in land use data, combined with paucity of information regarding assumptions and methodologies used to calculate GHG emissions and carbon sequestration from living biomass undermines the reliability of the estimate for the AFOLU sector.  

Tonga wishes to communicate the following targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (table 1): 

1. Energy: 13% (16 Gg) reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 2006, 
2. Industrial processes and product use (IPPU): no target, 
3. AFOLU: non-emission targets of establishing a forest inventory as prerequisite to identify a GHG emission target for the 2025 NDC and planting one million trees by 2023, 
4. Waste: non-emission target of expanding the formal waste collection system as prerequisite to identify a GHG emission target for the 2025 NDC. Table 1. Mitigation targets, means and requirements  

Source: maf dKigTno            

3.1 Energy Sector 

3.1.1 Targets 

Tonga set the target of reducing GHG emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels by 13% (16 Gg) by 2030 compared to 2006. This target is to be achieved by implementing the following measures: 

x 70% of electricity generated from renewable sources,  x 2% efficiency gain per year for newly purchased light duty vehicles, x Limit growth in grid-connected residential electricity end-use to 1% per year on average for the period 2021-2030 by adopting minimum energy performance standards for appliances, lighting, and electrical equipment. 

3.1.2 Overview of measures and requirements to achieve targets  

First, generating 70% of electricity from renewable sources requires considerable expansion of generation capacity from solar and wind as well as a substantial increase in battery storage and upgrading of the existing network infrastructure. Technology transfer, capacity building and external financial support will be required to build, operate, and maintain the necessary infrastructure.  

Second, achieving a 2% efficiency gain per year for newly purchased light duty vehicles either requires establishing mandatory vehicle standards and/or incentives for purchasing more efficient vehicles through taxes, fees, or import tariffs. While price incentives would likely directly affect consumer choices, mandatory standards would profit from being aligned with price signals for consumers in order to be effective. Establishing mandatory standards and price incentives will require public acceptance as both will likely have an impact on vehicle prices and/or vehicle size.  

Third, limiting growth in grid-connected residential electricity end-use to 1% per year on average for the period 2021-2030 may be achieved by adopting minimum energy performance standards for appliances, lighting, and electrical equipment. The successful adoption of energy performance standards will require public acceptance as their introduction will likely increase purchasing prices, though possibly reducing electricity costs. For both vehicle and appliance standards and incentives, technology transfer, capacity building and external financial support may be required.  

3.2 Industrial processes and product use (IPPU) Sector  

Tonga does not have any target to reduce GHG emissions from IPPU for two reasons. First, GHG emissions from IPPU represent a fraction of Tonga’s total greenhouse gas emissions given the absence of mineral, chemical, metal, electronics, and other manufacturing industries as well as the limited use of lubricants, paraffin waxes and solvents. Second, the paucity of data on GHG emissions from IPPU prevents the establishment of a verifiable target. 

3.3 Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) Sector  

3.3.1 Targets  

Tonga set two non-emission targets for AFOLU:  

x establishing a forest inventory by 2025 x planting one million trees by 2023.  

3.3.2 Overview of measures and requirements to achieve targets  

First, while not reducing GHG emissions, the establishment of forest inventory will improve clarity and transparency for the AFOLU sector, providing a basis for the calculation of GHG emissions and carbon sequestration from forests and other woody biomass. Such an inventory will serve as the foundation for quantifying GHG emissions from the sector and identifying a GHG emission target for the 2025 NDC. Currently, the paucity of reliable data leads to significant uncertainty in any attempt to quantify GHG emissions and carbon sequestration from forests and other woody biomass.^[3] The establishment of such a forest inventory requires financing and the development of the necessary technical capacity within the administration to maintain the inventory. 

Second, the successful achievement of planting one million trees will reduce GHG emissions. However, it is not possible to quantify this target in terms of GHG emission reductions, as the volume of reductions will depend on the kind and the age of trees to be planted. Successfully planting one million trees will require technical expertise, financial support, and consent from various stakeholders in order to determine what kind of trees will be planted, the land on which the trees will be planted, and who will be responsible for planting the trees.  

3.4 Waste Sector 

3.3.1 Targets  

Tonga set a non-emission target for the waste sector of expanding the formal waste collection system, including the collection of relevant data on waste amounts and waste composition, as a prerequisite to identify a GHG emissions target for the sector in the 2025 NDC. Expanding the country’s formal waste collection system will also allow to improve transparency and clarity regarding assumptions and methodologies used to calculate GHG emissions from waste.  

3.3.2 Overview of measures and requirements to achieve targets  The expansion of the formal waste collection systems requires financing and the development of the necessary technical capacity within the Waste Authority and the administration to collect the relevant data in order to determine GHG emissions from waste and identify a quantifiable target for reducing GHG emissions. 

4. Adaptation 

4.1 Priorities and objectives for adaptation 

In Tonga, adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change focusses on coping with the impacts of an increase in temperature and a rise in sea level. Adapting to the impacts of these two phenomena is regarded as a priority for two reasons. First, there is a high confidence in the available scientific evidence that these two phenomena are a direct manifestation of climate change in Tonga. There is considerable uncertainty about the relationship between climate change and other phenomena, including changes in rainfall patterns, occurrence of droughts, and occurrence of tropical cyclones. Second, there are feasible measures available to respond to the impact of increasing temperatures and rising sea levels on a national scale. There are no effective measures to respond to other phenomena, such as ocean acidification, on a national scale. For more information, please refer to filo2.Imhgcapstnex A      . 

4.2 Overview of targets, measures and requirements  

In the context of adaptation, the GoT identified three targets: 

x 30% of land in Tonga utilized for agro-forestry or forestry by 2025, x Prevent any permanent loss of land to rising sea levels on Tonga’s four main islands (i.e. Tongatapu, Ha’apai, Vava’u, and ‘Eua), xMaintenance of the existing stocks of fish and other marine species. 

Table 2. Adaptation targets, means and requirements  

Source: mf ndoKig agTno    

These targets were derived from the 20 targets identified in the Joint National Action Plan 2 on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management 2018-2028 (JNAP 2). However, for the purpose of the 2020 NDC, three targets have been selected as being closely related to the priorities of coping with increasing temperatures and rising sea levels. In addition, for the purpose of the 2020 NDC, the selected targets were defined more closely and formulated as quantifiable targets in order to be able to evaluate progress:  x The target of 30% of land being utilized for agro-forestry or forestry has been amended by a target year. 

x The target of preventing any permanent land loss to rising sea levels has been derived from the JNAP 2 target of resilient coastal development, infrastructures, and integrated coastal ecosystems management. 

x The target of maintaining Tonga’s stocks of fish and other marine species has been derived from the 2018 JNAP 2 target of resilient fisheries and marine and coastal ecosystems. 

The target of 30% of land in Tonga being utilized for agro-forestry or forestry is envisioned to be achieved by planting of one million trees by 2023, among others. Successfully planting one million trees will require technical expertise, financial support, and consent from various stakeholders in order to determine what kind of trees will be planted, the land on which the trees will be planted, and who will be responsible for planting the trees.  

The expansion of MPAs and SMAs is regarded as an important means to achieve the two targets of preventing any permanent loss of land to rising sea levels on Tonga’s four main islands and maintaining existing stocks of fish and other marine species. In that context, the Government of Tonga aims to expand the area covered by MPAs and SMAs to 30% of Tonga’s EEZ. In order to be effective, the expansion of MPAs will require a clear definition of MPAs — including if and how they differ from SMAs — as well as strengthened enforcement. 

Planning Process

5. Planning Process  

5.1 Information on the process to prepare the NDC 

The Tonga Strategic Development Framework 2018-2028 (TSDF II) is the overarching national planning document and the principles of the TSDF II have informed the development of the 2020 NDC. There are a number of key sectoral policies and plans which have also informed the 2020 NDC. These include the Tonga Energy Road Map, the Energy Efficiency Master Plan, the National Forestry Policy and the JNAP 2.  

The Department of Climate Change has led the development of Tonga’s second NDC.  The Department reviewed the progress made to date towards achieving the targets identified in the 2015 INDC and identified means of how to enhance the 2020 NDC. As part of this process, the Department of Climate Change took a coordinating role in gathering input from stakeholders, both for evaluating progress on the 2015 INDC and designing the 2020 NDC. The review of progress and the development of recommendations for the 2020 NDC were informed by data sets, academic studies, policies, strategies, roadmaps and other reports and structured interviews with stakeholders in Tonga, including government and non-government organisations. mcsodanwvrfoadislFuehtr 

 cesproare ve ilabin Anex 3 f othis NDC in the “Review of the 2015 Intended 

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The review and recommendations were discussed, comments were received and integrated, and the findings were validated by the Tonga JNAP technical team and relevant stakeholders through national workshops. These meetings were attended by stakeholders from government, private sector and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) with approximately 25 women and 20 men taking part in the workshops. The 2020 NDC was then prepared building on the recommendations which had been developed and went through a final validation process with the JNAP technical team and national stakeholders. Once the 2020 NDC contents had been agreed across ministries and departments, the NDC was submitted to and approved by Cabinet.  

Planning Process

5.2 Information on implementation plans 

Tonga is currently developing a LT-LEDS which will be submitted to the UNFCCC in 2021. This NDC is aligned with the upcoming LT-LEDS and stakeholder dialogue for the development of the LT-LEDS has fed into the development of the 2020 NDC. The Tongan Government also intends to develop a NDC Roadmap and Investment Plan in 2021. 

Fairness and Ambition 

6. Fairness and Ambition  

Tonga is a SIDS and its GHG emissions are negligible on a global scale. Due to its geography and economy, Tonga is highly affected by the adverse impact of climate change. Tonga is classified as one of the most at-risk countries in the world in terms of its exposure to the unfolding effects of climate change. The ongoing need for Tonga to invest large portions of its public finance and service capacity in the ambitious quest to achieve our climate resilience objectives is a consequence of the emissions of other large countries over many generations as they developed and became wealthy. Achieving the targets set out in Tonga’s 2020 NDC will require considerable support for financing, capacity and technology investment. Accounting for these circumstances, Tonga considers its NDC as fair and ambitious.  

Annex 

A1. Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding of Tonga’s 2020 NDC 

A2. Impacts of climate change on Tonga 

For the purpose of clarity and transparency, this section assesses the impact of five different phenomena related to climate change in Tonga: changes in temperatures, shifts in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea levels, ocean acidification, and the occurrence of tropical cyclones. It summarizes what can be regarded as consensus in the existing literature, highlights areas of uncertainty, and indicates areas in need of future research. 

Table 3. Overview of phenomena related to climate change in Tonga 

Table 2. Overview of phenomena related to climate change in Tonga 

(continued) 

S:Curcompieldby IG          

Rise in temperatures 

Under all emission scenarios, temperatures in Tonga are predicted to rise. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (2014) indicate that temperatures will increase by 1.0°C by 2030 under all emission scenarios, and between 0.2°C and 4.1°C by 2090 depending on the emission scenario. In its Third National Communication, the Government of Tonga (2019) suggests an increase in temperature of up to 0.7°C by 2030 and 2.6°C by 2090. An increase in temperatures has direct repercussions for agriculture, fishery, and human health. 

First, impacts from rising temperatures are expected to be particularly pronounced in the agriculture sector. Agriculture is a crucial sector in Tonga, accounting for approximately 15% of the country’s GDP in 2018/19, with a quarter of the country’s employed laborers working in agriculture, forestry and fishing (Tonga Statistics Department 2019; Tonga Statistics Department 2018). Furthermore, in 2015, more than 80% of Tonga’s population were engaged in agriculture to meet their own food needs or earn cash income through sale, with squash, yam, taro, sweet potato and cassava representing the most common crops (MAFF et al. 2015). Higher temperatures can lead to lower crop yields because levels of photosynthesis decrease at temperatures above 25°C for tropical crops, like sweet potato, cassava, taro, and yams (Hay et al. 2003). 

Second, according to Dutra et al. 2018, increase in temperature along with nutrient enrichment and ocean acidification can affect corals’ immune response, thus increasing the susceptibility of corals to diseases and affecting their survivability and growth. Higher sea surface temperatures of Tonga’s coastal waters have reportedly led to reduced fish catch as a result of widespread coral bleaching (Government of Tonga 2018b). 

Third, Tonga, along with most Pacific island countries, faces effects of water scarcity, vector-, food- and waterborne diseases (McIver et al. 2016). Increasing temperatures are known to facilitate the spread of foodborne diseases such as diarrheal disease, ciguatera and salmonella, due to an increase in the concentration of certain pathogens in food along the pathway from preparation and handling to cooking, serving and storing (WHO 2015). In addition, an increase in temperature may exacerbate Tonga’s incidences of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as obesity and diabetes. As one of the countries with the highest obesity and diabetes rates worldwide — affecting two in five and one in five Tongans respectively — an increase in temperature may contribute to further worsening of public health (WHO 2016). For example, temperature extremes put type-2 diabetes patients at increased risk (Hajat et al. 2017). Similarly, Moellering and Smith (2012) suggest that as air conditioning increases with the rise in temperatures, energy expenditure of the human body decreases which may contribute to rising obesity rates. 

Increase in extreme rainfall events 

Projections for the impact of climate change on rainfall patterns are subject to considerable uncertainty. While existing projections suggest with high confidence that extreme rain events will occur more frequently, there is low confidence that mean annual rainfall will be affected by climate change (Government of Tonga 2019; Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO 2014). An increase in extreme rain events can be expected to adversely impact infrastructure, agriculture, and public health in Tonga. 

First, an increase in extreme rainfall events threatens to reduce agricultural productivity in Tonga (Government of Tonga 2018b). As a large share of Tonga’s population relies on subsistence agriculture, reduced production might threaten food security of many households. Furthermore, lower productivity as a result of an increase in extreme rainfall events will likely affect revenue from agriculture exports which are vital for the Tongan economy (Government of Tonga 2019). In 2019, agriculture products represented almost half of the country’s export revenue (National Reserve Bank of Tonga 2019).  

Second, Tonga occasionally faces heavy rainfall that causes flooding and prolonged ponding of water, which is associated with health risks such as waterborne and vector diseases, including dengue fever (Fakhruddin 2015). In 2017, the Tongan Ministry of Health has expressed concerns with the increased risk of dengue fever due to heavy rainfall (Tonga Broadcasting Commission 2017). Moreover, in the Pacific, WHO (2015) identified diarrheal illness as the most significant category of waterborne disease caused by changes in temperature, rainfall and humidity.  

Third, while a systematic analysis is prevented by paucity of data, extreme rainfall events are considered to cause considerable damage to infrastructure. Finally, heavy rainfall in combination with insufficient drainage systems increases surface runoff, resulting in the pollution of nearby coastal areas due to sediments and debris washing into these areas (Government of Tonga 2018b).

Occurrence of droughts 

Existing projections suggest little change in the incidence of droughts in Tonga due to climate change. However, confidence levels behind these projections are low since the confidence level of changes in mean rainfall change is low. Furthermore, there is no consensus about projected changes in ENSO and their impact on rainfall patterns (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO 2014; Government of Tonga 2019). Although droughts might not increase due to climate change, they already pose a threat, particularly to Tonga’s agriculture sector and public health. If climate change was to result in more prolonged droughts, their impact would further increase. 

First, agricultural droughts — i.e. insufficient soil moisture to meet the needs of a crop — are already occurring regularly in Tonga (Government of Tonga 2019). Such droughts severely affect agriculture productivity in the country, resulting in stunted growth of annual crops such as squash, vegetables, yams, sweet potatoes, root crops, and coconuts (Government of Tonga 2018b; FAO and MAFF 2014).  

Second, despite the uncertainty in the projection of droughts in Tonga, droughts already pose health threats to the country’s population. For example, prolonged dry periods have caused reduced access to potable water (Fakhruddin 2015). Historically, droughts in 1982-83 and 1997-98 resulted in water shortage, devastating agriculture harvests in those years and causing food shortages (Government of Tonga 2018a). Such threats would be exacerbated in case the frequency or intensity of droughts were to increase as a result of climate change. 

Rise in sea levels 

Sea levels in Tongan territorial waters are predicted to rise under all emissions scenarios, though projections show considerable differences in the magnitude of that rise, with projections suggesting a 7-27cm rise by 2030 and an increase of

11-88cm by 2090 (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO 2014; Government of Tonga 2019). Rising sea levels have a large spectrum of potential impacts, from land loss to salinization of ground water to degradation of coral reefs and migration, among others. 

First, along with many countries in the South Pacific, Tonga has experienced the risk of inundation and flooding as a result of sea level rise, making low-lying islands inhabitable (Mimura 1999). Additionally, short duration coastal flooding events can have devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure that further increases risks to populations residing in coastal areas (Aucan 2018). While a systematic analysis is prevented by paucity of data, more than 80% of Tonga’s population resides within a distance of less than 1km from the shore, suggesting a very high vulnerability to rising sea levels (Neil et al. 2019). Sea level rise combined with extreme weather events is likely to contribute to an increase in inundation of low-lying areas. Estimates suggest that flooding and inundation will affect approximately 4% to 14% of the total population of Tongatapu (Rawat et al. 2016). Even under a medium emissions scenario,^[4] considerable parts of Tongatapu are projected to be inundated by 2090. In particular, this would affect Nuku’alofa and the northern coasts of Tongatapu (Climate Central 2020). Ultimately, a considerable share of the population may have to relocate closer to the center of the islands. 

Second, rise in sea level will cause seawater intrusion in low lying coastal areas, which can reduce the availability of freshwater as salinity of groundwater increases (Government of Tonga 2018b). Furthermore, the marginal areas of farmland on the coast are expected to experience higher moisture and increased salinization due to inundation or flooding, reducing their suitability for agriculture (Rawat et al. 2016). Land loss, in addition to saltwater intrusion, is also predicted to reduce the availability of potable water (Fakhruddin 2015).  

Increase in ocean acidification 

Higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes more CO₂ to be absorbed by the world’s oceans. As more CO₂ dissolves in the sea, ocean pH decreases, and aragonite saturation levels fall. This process is commonly referred to as ocean acidification. Coral reefs are highly vulnerable to projected decreases in ocean pH and aragonite saturation levels, as corals and crustaceans use aragonite to build their skeletons. At atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ above 450 ppm, aragonite levels could fall to levels that make it impossible for corals to sustain building their skeletons (Bell et al. 2011).  

In Tonga, aragonite saturation levels are predicted to decrease to 3.5Ω by 2035 and continue to decline further (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO 2014, Government of Tonga 2019), threating corals’ reef-building calcification rates and structural integrity, making coral reefs the most vulnerable marine habitat in the tropical Pacific region (Fakhruddin 2015).  

In particular, according to Dutra et al. 2018, increase in ocean acidification is expected to impact on coral physiology (calcification rates, ability to repair tissues and growth), behavior (feeding rate), reproduction (early life-stage survival, timing of spawning) as well as weaken calcified structures, and alter coral stressresponse mechanisms (Fabricius et al. 2015; Fabricius et al. 2011). In addition, ocean acidification is predicted to pose moderate to high risk to the demersal fish and intertidal invertebrates with shells made of calcium carbonate (Fakhruddin 2015). These combined impacts could potentially have detrimental consequences for fisheries (IPCC 2014; Dutra et al. 2018). With more than 13% of Tongan households engaged in fisheries for both consumption and sale, this would affect a considerable share of the population (Tonga Statistics Department 2018). 

Decline in frequency but increase in intensity of cyclones 

While the number of cyclones is projected to decrease, their intensity in the Southeast Pacific Ocean basin in Tonga will increase (Government of Tonga 2019). The frequency is predicted to decrease varying from 6% to 35%, while the mean maximum wind speeds are predicted to increase between 2% and 11% (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO 2014). However, these projections are made with only moderate confidence. If climate change was to lead to an increase in the intensity of cyclones, it can be expected that the already existing negative impacts on agriculture, coral reefs and fisheries, and public health would be exacerbated.  

First, Tonga is regularly affected by cyclones which cause considerable damage to agriculture and related infrastructure. Cyclones are accompanied by heavy winds, rainfall, and storm surges that devastate crops and trees (FAO 2010). For instance, Cyclone Gita in 2018 significantly damaged perennial tree crops, such as coconuts, bananas and breadfruit (Government of Tonga 2018b). Cyclone Harold in 2020 contributed a drop in agricultural export volumes by nearly 30%, with lower exports of taro and cassava (National Reserve Bank of Tonga. 2020). In addition, cyclones contribute to soil erosion and salinization, which lead to loss of soil nutrients in coastal areas and stream catchments, creating unfavorable conditions for crop cultivation (FAO 2010; Government of Tonga 2018b). In addition, past cyclones have caused considerable damage to infrastructure, such as transport infrastructure and buildings. In turn, some of that infrastructure is essential to support the agriculture sector, like farm buildings and fences (FAO 2010).  

Second, cyclones – in combination with heavy rainfall – affect coral reefs, fisheries and related infrastructure (Dutra et al. 2018; FAO 2014). Once damage has been done by cyclones, fish habitats such as coral reefs take years to re-establish and function normally, thus negatively affecting ecosystems that depend on coral reefs (Government of Tonga 2019). Furthermore, cyclones destroy fishing vessels and equipment. For example, Cyclone Ian in 2014 severely devastated the fisheries sector of Ha’apai, due to damage sustained to fishing boats, outboard motors and an estimated 100% of all fishing gears (FAO 2014). If climate change was to cause an increase in the intensity of cyclones, the damage to coral reefs and fisheries would increase accordingly. 

Third, cyclones, along with other extreme weather events, have a direct impact on health, especially from water contamination (WHO 2015). As tropical cyclones bring heavy rainfall and provoke flooding, water treatment plants tend to be overwhelmed, leading to cross-contamination between sewage and drinking water pipes, sewage overflow, or bypass into local waterways (Semenza and Nichols 2007).  

References 

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Hoegh- Guldberg; Robert Le Borgne; Patrick Lehodey; Janice M. Lough; Tim Pickering; Morgan S. Pratchett; and Michelle Waycott. 2011. Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change: Summary for Pacific Island Countries and Territories. Secretariat of the Pacific Community. Noumea, New Caledonia. 

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Dutra, Leo X.C.; Michael D.E. Haywood; Shubha Shalini Singh; Marta Ferreira; Johanna E. Johnson; Joeli Veitayaka; Stuart Kininmonth; Cherrie W. Morris. 2018. “Effects of Climate Change on Corals Relevant to the Pacific Islands”. Pacific Marine Climate Change Report Card. Science Review 2018, pp. 132-158. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/9_Corals.pdf  

Fabricius, K.; A. Kluibenschedl; L. Harrington; S. Noonan; and G. De’ath. 2015. “In situ changes of tropical crustose coralline algae along carbon dioxide gradients”. Science Reports 5, 9537 (2015). 

https://doi.org/10.1038/srep09537

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Hajat, S; A. Haines; C Sarran; A. Sharma; C. Bates; and L. E. Fleming. 2017. “The effect of ambient temperature on type-2-diabetes: case-crossover analysis of 4+ million GP consultations across England”. Environmental health. Vol. 16, 73 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-0170284-7

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A3. Tonga NDC Review Report 

The Tonga NDC Review Report is annexed herewith for information purpose only. It can be accessed on the Department of Climate Change portal www.climatechange.gov.to.  

Kingdom of Tonga

Tonga Nationally 

Determined 

Contributions Review 

Report 

This document has been produced with the financial support of the Regional Pacific NDC Hub under the Review and Enhancement of Tonga Nationally Determined Contributions. This project is part of the Regional Pacific NDC Hub’s support to the Government of Tonga in implementing, enhancing and financing its NDCs. 

The NDC Hub is financed by the governments of Germany, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Australia. 

The NDC Hub is managed by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ) in partnership with the Pacific Community (SPC), the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI). The Hub has a close collaboration with the NDC Partnership’s Support Unit (NDCP SU). 

The NDC Hub is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) of the United Kingdom, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) of Australia and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) of New Zealand.  

2 | P a g e

CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................... 4

LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................... 4

LIST OF BOXES ....................................................................................................................................... 4

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................................................... 5

1   BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................ 6 

1.1            Paris Agreement and Nationally Determined Contributions ........................................ 6

1.2       Tonga’s Nationally Determined Contributions ................................................................ 6 

2 METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................................... 8

3 MITIGATION ............................................................................................................................... 10 

          3.1    Energy .................................................................................................................................. 11 

          3.2     Industrial Processes and Product Use ............................................................................ 17

          3.3 Agriculture, Forestry and oOther Land use .................................................................... 18

          3.4 Waste .................................................................................................................................... 20 

4                      ADAPTATION .............................................................................................................................22

          4.1    Targets ................................................................................................................................. 22 

          4.2            Implementation .................................................................................................................. 25

          4.3     Communication .................................................................................................................. 26 

5               RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................... 28

6 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................. 32

7 ANNEX ........................................................................................................................................ 33 

A1. Interview Notes ........................................................................................................................ 33 

A2. List of interview participants and contact information ...................................................... 46 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 1. Targets for the electricity sector .............................................................................................. 12 

Table 2. Transmission and distribution losses across Tonga’s four main networks ...................... 14 

Table 3. GHG emissions reported in the 2015 INDC and Third National Communication (in 

gigagrams) ........................................................................................................................................ 17

Table 4. Estimated carbon sequestration .............................................................................................. 19 

Table 5. JNAP 2 targets by category ....................................................................................................... 23 

Table 6. Example of matching goals with measures ........................................................................... 25 

Table 7. Overview of phenomena related to climate change in Tonga ............................................ 26 

Table 8. Summary of recommendations ............................................................................................... 29 

 LIST OF FIGURES 

Figure 1. Options for enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions ............................................ 8 

Figure 2. Estimated greenhouse gas emissions by sector in gigagrams (2006)² ............................ 10 

Figure 3. Electricity generation by fuel in Tonga .................................................................................. 12 

Figure 4. Electricity generation by fuel in Tongatapu .......................................................................... 13 

Figure 5. Electricity generation by fuel in Ha’apai ............................................................................... 13 

Figure 6. Electricity generation by fuel in Vava’u ................................................................................. 14 

Figure 7. Electricity generation by fuel in ‘Eua ..................................................................................... 14 

 LIST OF BOXES 

Box 1. Marine Protected Areas................................................................................................................ 24 

List of Abbreviations 

1. Background 

Paris Agreement and Nationally Determined Contributions 

The Paris Agreement aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, mentioning three specific means to achieve that aim: 

1. Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, 
2. Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change, and 
3. Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate-resilient development. 

To achieve its ambitious long-term goals, the Paris Agreement introduced the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). In the lead-up to the Paris Agreement, governments initially developed Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and submitted these to the secretariat of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Bonn, Germany. With the ratification of the Paris Agreement, those INDCs became Nationally Determined Contributions (Fransen et al., 2017). These NDCs represent a five-year cycle of pledges and reviews of governments’ actions to mitigate their countries’ contribution to climate change. Each party^[5] to the Paris Agreement is required to prepare and submit a successive NDC every five years to the UNFCCC secretariat (UNFCCC, 2015).  

This NDC review process was designed to provide a formal framework within which governments would increase the ambition of their actions against climate change and reduce its GHG emission over time, with the intention that each successive NDC would represent a progression beyond a country’s current NDC and ultimately allow to meet the aims of the Paris Agreement goal.  

Following the submission of each NDC to the UNFCCC secretariat, governments are required to pursue domestic measures to achieve their mitigation objectives. While most of the submitted NDCs have contained information on adaptation, this is not required. Parties are invited to submit and periodically update communications on adaptation, which may describe adaptation priorities, implementation and support needs, as well as plans and actions, either through their NDCs or other relevant formats such as national adaptation plans or national communications (UNFCCC, 2015). 

Tonga’s Nationally Determined Contributions  

The Government of Tonga developed its INDC and submitted it to the UNFCCC in 2015 and ratified the Paris Agreement on 21^stSeptember 2016. When the Paris Agreement came into force on 4^th November 2016, Tonga’s INDC submitted in 2015 automatically became Tonga’s first NDC. 

The Department of Climate Change is currently developing Tonga’s second NDC. Specifically, the department is reviewing the progress made to date towards achieving the targets identified in the 2015 INDC and identifying means of how to enhance the 2020 NDC. As part of this process, the Department of Climate Change takes a coordinating role in gathering input from stakeholders, both for evaluating progress on the 2015 INDC and designing the 2020 NDC. Once the 2020 NDC has been drafted, its contents will be agreed across ministries and departments, prior to seeking approval from cabinet. Finally, the document will be approved by the cabinet prior to being communicated to the UNFCCC secretariat.  

This report presents the progress made towards achieving the targets set in Tonga’s 2015 INDC. It also presents a set of recommendations to be considered for the development of the country’s 2020 NDC. The Department of Climate Change seeks input from all relevant stakeholders on the findings of this report as guidance for drafting Tonga’s 2020 NDC. The department expects to draft the 2020 NDC in the fourth quarter of this year.  

This report is one of the deliverables of the project Review and Enhancement of Tonga Nationally 

Determined Contribution. The project is part of the Regional Pacific NDC Hub’s support to the Government of Tonga in implementing, enhancing and financing its NDCs. The project is being led by the Department of Climate Change and implemented by the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), on behalf of the Regional Pacific NDC Hub. 

2. Methodology

This report has two principal purposes. First, it reviews the 2015 INDC, determining the progress made to date towards achieving the identified targets. Second, it puts forward recommendations for the formulation of the 2020 NDC.  

First, the review presented in this report addresses the progress made towards existing goals and targets for both the mitigation and adaptation components of Tonga’s 2015 INDC. Within each component, the review considered three elements: 

1. To what extent identified targets have been achieved, 
2. To what extent implementation is supported by identifying specific measures — or the lack thereof — to achieve the identified targets, 
3. How targets and measures are communicated, with a particular focus on the available data, including important gaps and inconsistencies. 

Second, recommendations were developed to inform the scope and content of the 2020 NDC. 

There are a number of options for governments of how to enhance or update their NDCs. Following Fransen et al. (2017), these options include (Figure 1): 

• Updating or adding relevant information,  
• Revising and/or expanding the existing goals and targets,  
• Providing information on specific measures to achieve those goals, and      Improving the clarity, transparency, and understanding of their NDCs.  

Figure 1. Options for enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions 

Source: Adapted from Fransen et al. (2017) 

The analysis presented in this report was informed by publicly available data sets and reports, incountry interviews with stakeholders in Tonga facilitated by the Department of Climate Change, and data gathered as a result of these interviews. 

Interviews were held during the period of 9^th March to 30^th April 2020. Travel restrictions imposed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic prevented the GGGI team from travelling to Tonga for faceto-face interviews. Therefore, all interviews were conducted remotely via video calls. A summary of these interviews is available in Annex 1 of this report. The list of the individuals interviewed from both public and private entities is available in Annex 2.  

The contents of this report were discussed and its findings were validated by the JNAP technical team on 24^th July and during a 2-day validation workshop with relevant stakeholders on 30^th and 31^st July 2020. At the validation workshops, the following 3 questions were asked: 

• Question 1. Do you agree with the results of the review of the 2015 INDC? Would you like to add any comments regarding the achievement of targets in the 2015 INDC? 
• Question 2. Do you agree with the recommendations made for your sector for the 2020 NDC? Other than the recommendations presented, do you have any other recommendations for the 2020 NDC? 
• Question 3. How can the suggested 2020 NDC targets be achieved in Tonga? What are the barriers and opportunities? What enabling actions need to be taken? 

The feedback in response to questions 1 and 2 was integrated into the review and recommendations of this report.  Responses to question 3 on barriers, opportunities and enabling actions will be considered for drafting the 2020 NDC. Feedback collected addressing question 3 is presented in this report in Annex 3. 

3. Mitigation 

Mitigation refers to human interventions to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources or enhance their removal from the atmosphere (UNFCCC, 2009). In other words, mitigation can be broken down into two components. First, it includes any activities that decrease the emission of greenhouse gases, such as switching from fossil fuels to renewable sources for electricity generation. Second, mitigation refers to removing GHG emissions from the atmosphere via carbon sinks, such as vegetations and soils absorbing carbon dioxide (CO₂) The 2019 refinement to the 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories identifies the following sectors as relevant sources for GHG emissions (IPCC, 2019):  

• Energy, including electricity generation, transport, and commercial, institutional and residential end-use, 
• Industrial processes and product use (IPPU),   Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU), and  Waste. 

Available information suggests that Tonga’s GHG emissions originate from two main sources:  

1. Burning of fossil fuels, and  
2. Conversion of forest and grassland (Government of Tonga, 2019; Figure 2).^[6]

Figure 2. Estimated greenhouse gas emissions by sector in gigagrams (2006)²

Agriculture                                                  1.8                                        0.6%

Source: Government of Tonga (2019) 

Tonga’s 2015 INDC includes the following mitigation targets (Government of Tonga, 2015): 

• 50% of electricity generated from renewable sources by 2020, 
• 70% of electricity generated from renewable sources by 2030, 
• Reduction of line losses of electricity to 9% by 2020, 
• Double the number of Marine Protected Areas by 2030, compared to 2015,^[7]
• Development of GHG emission reduction targets for the following sectors: transport, agriculture, waste, and forestry.^[8]  

None of these targets was formulated in the form of quantifying reductions in GHG emissions. For the 2020 NDC, it is recommended that targets are formulated in terms of GHG emissions reductions, to the extent possible. 

This chapter summarizes the 2015 INDC distinguishing between the four sectors put forward as part of the 2006 IPCC guidelines and assesses the progress made towards achieving the identified targets. It also highlights important gaps within the 2015 INDC, such as missing sector targets, gaps in identifying measures to achieve the existing targets, and lack of and inconsistencies in the available data and calculations. Finally, under each section, the report suggests a set of recommendations for the 2020 NDC. 

3.1 Energy  

3.1.1 Targets 

Targets for the energy sector only refer to electricity generation, with the aim to generate 50% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020 and 70% by 2030, as well as to reduce line losses to 9% by 2020 (Government of Tonga, 2015). These targets are largely consistent with other policy documents, such as the second Joint National Action Plan on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management 2 (JNAP 2) and the Tonga Energy Road Map (TERM) (Table 1). 

Table 1. Targets for the electricity sector  

50% of electricity generated from renewable sources              2015 Tonga Strategic Development Framework 2 by 2025 

Source: Compiled by GGGI 

In Tonga, electricity is generated from diesel, solar and wind. According to incountry interviews, Tonga is on track to achieve the target of 50% electricity generation from renewable sources by 2020. The target refers to the fiscal year 2020, which ends in June 2021. Data made available by the utility — Tonga Power Limited (TPL) — shows that the share of electricity generated from renewables increased from 7% in 2016 to 11% in 2019 (TPL, 2020a; Figure 3). 

Source: TPL 2020a 

Currently, solar and wind farms represent approximately 30% of total installed electricity generation capacity. Planned additions of generation capacity will increase the share of renewables in total capacity to more than 60% over the next two years (TPL, 2020c; in-country interviews).^[9] Given these capacity additions, it is expected that the share of electricity generated from renewable sources will increase further. However, achieving the target of 50% electricity generation from renewables in 2020 is extremely ambitious.  

In addition to the four networks, solar off-grid systems represent a total of approximately 0.8 MW, equivalent to 4% of total installed capacity (Department of Energy, 2020). Information on electricity generation from these systems is not available. Therefore, this review does not consider them when assessing electricity generation by fuel. However, it is estimated that they would only marginally increase the overall share of electricity from renewables.  

Source: TPL (2020a) 

The 2015 INDC neither includes any targets for transportation nor for commercial, institutional and residential end-use of energy. The document states that no targets for reducing GHG emissions from the transport sector have been identified, due to the lack of viable alternatives for fossil fuel in transportation (Government of Tonga, 2015). In-country interviews confirmed that no targets for reducing GHG emissions have been developed for these sectors since 2015. The Joint National Action Plan on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management 2 (JNAP 2) highlights energy efficiency measures as an important means to reduce GHG emissions. However, the document does not set any specific targets (Government of Tonga, 2018). Therefore, it is recommended to derive relevant targets for reducing GHG emissions from the transport sector as well as from commercial, institutional and residential enduse of energy from the upcoming Energy Efficiency Master Plan (Government of Tonga and CTCN, 2020).  

Figure 6. Electricity generation by fuel in Vava’u 

Figure 7. Electricity generation by fuel in ‘Eua 

2016 2017 2018 2019

Table 2. Transmission and distribution losses across Tonga’s four main networks  

Source: TPL (2020c)                                                                         

The 2020 Energy Efficiency Master Plan — in its current draft versions — does not propose a target that quantifies the reduction of GHG emissions from transport. However, the plan suggests that a combination of targets would lead to an estimated reduction of 28% compared to GHG emission levels in 2030 under a business as usual scenario.^[10] Among the targets included in the plan, the following selection is regarded as the most relevant to be considered for formulating the 2020 NDC:^[11]

• 30% improvement in fuel efficiency for newly registered light-duty vehicles, reducing consumption from 10.1 litres per 100 km in 2016 to 7 litres per 100 km in 2030, through registration fees, import tariffs, or fuel economy standards,  
• 10% of all newly registered light-duty vehicles to be electric or hybrid vehicles by 2030.^[12]

Similarly, the Energy Efficiency Master Plan does not propose a target that quantifies the reduction of GHG emissions from commercial, institutional and residential end-use of energy. Instead, the plan proposes several targets. Together, these targets would accumulate to a 35% reduction of GHG emissions from electricity generation, compared to a business as usual scenario.^[13] Among the targets included in the plan, the following selection is regarded as the most relevant to be considered for formulating the 2020 NDC:^[14]

• Adoption of minimum energy performance standards by 2022, following Australian and New Zealand standards for all fridges, freezers, air conditioners, water heaters, televisions, computers, clothes washing machines, dryers, cooking appliances,  
• Curtailment of import of non-LED bulbs,  
• Implementation of energy efficiency standards for buildings and performance of energy audits,^[15]
• 100% of streetlights retrofitted with LED bulbs. 

3.1.2 Implementation 

The 2015 INDC does not identify specific measures or technologies of how to achieve the proposed targets for the energy sector, nor does it identify technical and financial requirements. While Annex 2 of the document provides a summary of initiatives that are related to mitigation, there is no indication to what extent these initiatives will contribute to reducing GHG emissions (Government of Tonga, 2015). According to in-country interviews, several of the listed initiatives have proven to be technically and/or financially unfeasible. This includes, among others, the development of coconut oil and tidal power as sources for renewable energy. As noted above, the technologies that have played the largest role towards achieving the renewable energy targets in the energy sector are solar and wind, combined with battery storage. Planned capacity additions suggest that the role of solar and wind will increase further during the next decade. 

While the 2015 INDC does not include any target for the transport sector, the document mentions public awareness programs for vehicle maintenance, public transport, as well as use of biofuels, electric vehicles and bicycles as means to reduce emissions from the sector — without quantifying their mitigation potentials (Government of Tonga, 2015). It is recommended for the 2020 NDC to identify relevant measures, if any targets for the transport sector are to be included. In many cases, relevant measures can be drawn from existing policies and plans. For example, relevant measures can be derived from the upcoming Energy Efficiency Master Plan. To reduce GHG emissions from land transport, the plan proposes improving user-friendliness of public transportation, increasing vehicle efficiency through adjusting vehicle registration tax and import fees, and introducing a mandatory minimum standard for blending of biofuels (Government of Tonga and CTCN, 2020).^[16]  

Similarly, the 2015 INDC does not include any target for commercial, institutional and residential end-use of energy. It is recommended for the 2020 NDC to identify relevant measures, if any targets for commercial, institutional and residential end-use are to be included. The upcoming Energy Efficiency Master Plan proposes a number of measures that could be reflected in the 2020 NDC. For example, the plan suggests introducing building standards and energy audits to reduce electricity consumption in buildings. Furthermore, it proposes establishing minimum energy performance standards for electrical appliances and creating a revolving fund to finance the adoption of more energy-efficient equipment (Government of Tonga and CTCN, 2020). 

3.1.3 Communication  

There are considerable gaps in the 2015 INDC regarding transparency and clarity for the energy sector. There is no information on which data and which conversion factors were used to estimate GHG emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels. Both the 2015 INDC and the 2019 Third National Communication (TNC) refer to 2006 data in order to estimate GHG emissions. However, for these two data sets are not consistent (Government of Tonga, 2015; Government of Tonga, 2019; Table 3). This is the result of data for GHG emissions having been revised and updated prior to the Third National Communication (in-country interviews). While the amount of total GHG emissions remained largely unchanged, the sectoral breakdown shows considerable revisions. Therefore, data published as part of the TNC is considered to be more accurate and is generally used for reference in this report, unless stated otherwise.  

Attempts to recalculate the 2006 data are prevented by the paucity of raw data and uncertainty about the methodology and conversion factors used. However, calculations based on the Department of Energy’s 2018 energy balance are consistent with GHG emissions reported in the Third National Communication. The numbers suggest that little change has occurred in the overall amounts of fossil fuels consumption. Therefore, GHG emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels should also remain largely unchanged. 

Table 3. GHG emissions reported in the 2015 INDC and Third National Communication (in gigagrams) 

Third National                  310.4                    40.2                    72.3                7.8                          1.8                      187.4             0.9 

Communication 

Source: Government of Tonga (2019), Government of Tonga (2012) 

¹ According to Tonga’s Second National Communication, conversion of forests and grasslands represents a source of emissions that is comparable to the amount emitted by the combustion of fossil fuels (Government of Tonga, 2012). However, no information is provided on the calculated amount. The 2015 INDC and the Third National Communication both report Tonga to be a net carbon sink, with the INDC reporting carbon removals by forests of approximately 1,691.97 gigagrams for 2006 and the Third National Communication reporting removals of 1,879.37 gigagrams for the same year. 

It is recommended to ensure the publication of relevant data and calculations in order to permit verification by third parties. This can be done either as part of the 2020 NDC or as part of the national communications to the UNFCCC. If relevant data and calculations are published separately from the NDC document, it should be ensured that the information published is consistent across documents. Furthermore, it is recommended to use the most recent data available for calculating and reporting GHG emissions. Data that is more than 10 years old should be considered outdated. 

3.2 Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) 

The 2015 INDC does not include any targets, measures, or data related to industrial processes and product use (IPPU). However, the sector’s omission does not necessarily reflect a gap in the document. Given the absence of mineral, chemical, metal, electronics and other manufacturing industries as well as the limited use of lubricants, paraffin waxes and solvents, the IPPU sector might have been considered as not sufficiently relevant to be considered as part of the 2015 INDC.  

For the 2020 NDC, it is recommended to not include a GHG emissions target for the IPPU sector. However, in the light of clarity and transparency, it is suggested to explain that there is no target for two reasons: First, GHG emissions from the sector represent only a fraction of Tonga’s total 

greenhouse gas emissions. Second, the paucity of data on GHG emissions from the IPPU sector prevents the establishment of a variable target.  

3.2 Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 

3.3.1 Targets 

The 2015 INDC recognizes agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) is crucial for both mitigation and adaptation. However, the document does not set any targets to reduce emissions from the sector.  

Given the uncertainty of the extent of carbon sequestration, it is recommended for the 2020 NDC to identify a non-emission target for the AFOLU sector. For that purpose, it is suggested to include the establishment of forest inventory to improve clarity and transparency for the sector.  

In addition, in-country consultations asked for including a second non-emission target envisioning the planting of one million trees by 2023. While such a target can be considered for the 2020 NDC, it is recommended to ascertain the feasibility of this target prior to its inclusion.  

Finally, it is recommended to include a GHG emissions target for the AFOLU sector in the 2025 NDC, after the successful establishment of a forest inventory. Any such target could be derived from existing targets identified in the 2009 National Forest Policy, including halting deforestation and further degradation of indigenous forests, establishing and managing forest reserves, promoting reforestation and rehabilitation of cleared and degraded forests, and promoting agroforestry (Government of Tonga et al., 2009). However, establishing a forest inventory is required in order to be able to quantify any of these targets in terms of emission reduction or emissions removal.  

3.3.2 Implementation 

The 2015 INDC does not identify any specific measures to reduce GHG emissions from the AFOLU sector. However, existing policies and plans identify relevant means, which could be drawn upon for the formulation of the 2020 NDC. Among others, the National Forest Policy identified intercropping and agroforestry as an option to mitigate GHG emissions. In-country interviews also specifically highlighted these two measures. Complementarily, the Forest Management Plan identified a range of measures to reduce deforestation, such as improving the enforcement of illegal tree clearing, capacity building to promote agroforestry, and applying certification in order to adhere to international standards for sustainable timber production (Ministry of Agriculture Food Forestry and Fisheries, 2017). 

However, a prerequisite for setting specific targets and identifying measures to reduce GHG emissions is to improve data collection and establish a forest inventory. This is reflected in the National Forest Policy stating that “Tonga needs a comprehensive inventory of its forest resources” (Government of Tonga et al., 2009). Such an inventory will serve as the foundation for analysis, identifying trends and appropriate actions, and evaluating the impact of specific policies and interventions. Currently, the paucity of reliable data leads to significant uncertainty in any larger-scale assessment undertaken in the agriculture and forestry sectors. With basic information regarding forest cover and forest cover change lacking, assessing more complex issues — such as forest regeneration following clearing for agriculture — becomes largely impossible. In return, the paucity of reliable analysis impedes the development of relevant policies to address the issues faced within the sector. Finally, the absence of reliable data also prevents monitoring the impact and evaluating the effectiveness of policies and other interventions.  

3.3.3 Communication 

Tonga’s 2015 INDC states that, when land use and forestry are considered, Tonga is a net carbon sink of approximately 1,691.97 gigagrams of CO₂e per year, with its forests absorbing substantially more GHG emissions than the amount emitted by all other sectors combined (Government of Tonga, 2015).  

According to the Third National Communication to the UNFCCC, within the land use and forestry sector, the conversion of forests and grasslands represents the single largest source of GHG emissions in Tonga, accounting for 187.4 gigagrams of CO₂e (Government of Tonga, 2019). The Third National Communication also states that GHG emissions from land-use are entirely offset by carbon sequestration from the country’s forests, with changes in forest and other woody biomass capturing an estimated 1,437.54 gigagrams of CO₂e and abandonment of managed lands sequestering a further 441.8 gigagrams of CO₂e (Government of Tonga, 2019). However, this could not be confirmed by the available land use data. Rather, estimates based on available data shed considerable doubt on whether Tonga constitutes a net carbon sink. 

Table 4. Estimated carbon sequestration 

Coniferous 371.7 10-50 0.37 5-25  plantation 

Source: GGGI calculated based on Government of Tonga et al. (2009), IPCC (2006) 

(IPCC, 2006a), it is estimated that changes in vegetation capture between 183 to 588 gigagrams of CO₂e per year (Table 4).^[19]Even under the most optimistic assumptions, this estimate falls short considerably of the 1,437.54 gigagrams of CO₂e reported in the Third National Communication and accordingly of the figures referred to in the 2015 INDC. In addition, the estimated range is considered to rather overestimate actual carbon sequestration, since annual carbon losses due to wood removals, fuelwood removal, and disturbance are not captured (IPCC, 2006a). The large variation in the estimate is a result of uncertainty regarding which default factors for aboveground net-biomass growth to apply. In particular, the category covering the largest share of land area — coconut (grassland, shrubland and cropland) — does not distinguish between natural and plantation areas, resulting in a large variance in the estimated amounts.  

Second, no separate estimate could be made to verify the numbers reported for carbon sequestration as a result of the abandonment of managed lands, as the necessary data was not available. However, if any estimates for abandonment of managed lands were included, the numbers for carbon sequestration from changes in forest and other woody biomass would diminish accordingly.  

Third, the Third National Communication states that forest area covers 12.5% of Tonga’s landmass, while 43.1% consists of agricultural land, and 44.4% of the land is covered by settlement areas (Government of Tonga, 2019). Given the large share of settlement areas compared to the data published in Tonga’s National Forest Policy, the high amount of reported carbon sequestration becomes even more questionable. 

In-country interviews confirmed the paucity of reliable data for forestry in Tonga. While a forest inventory is scheduled to be established in 2020-2021, interviewees highlighted the need for capacity building and funding within the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Forestry to collect and analyse forestry data.  

3.4 Waste 

3.4.1 Targets and implementation 

Similar to the AFOLU and transport sectors, while the 2015 INDC calls for reducing GHG emissions from waste management, no specific targets are set, and no relevant measures are identified for this sector (Government of Tonga, 2015). In-country interviews confirmed that no targets for reducing GHG emissions from waste have been developed since 2015.  

Given that the waste sector represents only a fraction of Tonga’s GHG emissions — approximately 0.3% according to the Third National Communication, compared to 11% reported in the 2015 INDC (Government of Tonga, 2019; Government of Tonga, 2015) — and the uncertainty in the available data, it is recommended for the 2020 NDC to not include a target for reducing GHG from the waste sector. 

Instead, it is suggested to include a non-emissions target, establishing the necessary preconditions to be able to identify a GHG emissions target for the sector in the 2025 NDC. For that purpose, it is recommended for the 2020 NDC to include the target of expanding the formal waste collection system in Tonga beyond Tongatapu. In that context, relevant data should be collected in order to be able to set a quantifiable GHG emissions target for the next NDC cycle. 

3.4.2 Communication 

There are considerable gaps in the 2015 INDC regarding transparency and clarity for the waste sector. There is no information on the amounts of waste, based on which GHG emissions were calculated. In addition, there is no information on the calculation for converting available waste data into estimates for GHG emissions.  

Both the 2015 INDC and the 2019 Third National Communication refer to 2006 data in order to estimate GHG emissions. However, for these two data sets are not consistent (Government of Tonga, 2015; Government of Tonga, 2019; Table 3). Instead, data for GHG emissions was revised prior to the Third National Communication and is considered to be more accurate (in-country interviews).  

According to the 2006 IPCC guidelines, GHG emissions from the waste sector include emissions from (1) solid waste disposal, (2) biological treatment of solid waste, (3) incineration and open burning of waste, and (4) wastewater treatment and discharge (IPCC, 2006a). First, in-country interviews confirmed that only data capturing total amounts for solid waste is available, with no information on composition. Second, according to available data and in-country interviews, there is no biological treatment of solid waste in Tonga. Third, according to the 2016 census and incountry interviews, open burning of waste remains a common practice in Tonga, particularly outside Tongatapu (Tonga Statistics Department, 2017). However, information on the amounts of waste disposed of through the practice of open burning are not available. Finally, there is insufficient information on wastewater treatment and discharge in Tonga. 

Using the IPCC waste model (IPCC, 2006b), extrapolating the amounts for municipal solid waste reported for Tongatapu (Waste Authority Ltd., 2017), applying default factors for Other Oceania, assuming methane generation rate under moist and wet climatic conditions and no methane recovery at the landfill site, results in minimal GHG emissions from municipal solid waste of less than 1 gigagram.              

4. Adaptation 

4.1 Targets 

The 2015 INDC refers to strengthening resilience against the adverse impacts of climate change, mentioning specifically the following sectors and areas (Government of Tonga, 2015): 

• Public infrastructure,  
• Buildings,  
• Coastal protection, and  
• Agriculture sector, mentioning measures such as improved soil management and agroforestry.  

In alignment with the National Forest Policy, the 2015 INDC also identifies goals to increase resilience in the forestry sector, including (Government of Tonga, 2015; Government of Tonga et al., 2009):^[20]

• Halting deforestation and degradation of indigenous forests,  
• Maintaining national parks, reserves and protected areas, 
• Establishing and managing forest reserves,  
• Promoting reforestation and rehabilitation of cleared and degraded forests with climate change resilient, and ecologically and socially appropriate tree species,  
• Promoting integrated agroforestry in areas earmarked for agriculture,  
• Discouraging tree removal on tax allotments,  
• Encouraging tax allotment holders to plant and manage trees on their properties.  

In addition to the goals mentioned above, the 2015 INDC also refers to the importance of trees for the protection of coastal areas.  

While references to strengthening resilience against and adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change are made throughout the document, the 2015 INDC lacks a systematic assessment of adaptation options. This is reflected in the document’s neglect to distinguish between goals and measures to achieve these goals.  

It is recommended for the Government of Tonga to focus on targets related to coping with the impact of an increase in temperature and a rise in sea level, as there is a high confidence in the available scientific evidence that these two phenomena are a direct manifestation of climate change in Tonga. Other phenomena either entail considerable uncertainty (change in rainfall patterns, occurrence of droughts, occurrence of cyclones) or there are no feasible measures available to respond on a national scale (ocean acidification).  

In this context, several targets identified by the Joint National Action Plan 2 on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management (JNAP 2) can be regarded as relevant. JNAP 2 identifies electricity, transport, agriculture, fisheries, coastal protection and flood management as important areas for adaptation (Government of Tonga, 2018). More importantly, JNAP 2 introduces 20 targets to strengthen resilience against climate change. Several of these targets could be included in the 2020 NDC (table 5).  

Table 5. JNAP 2 targets by category 

Source: GGGI 

If any of these targets were to be included in the 2020 NDC, it is recommended to define them more closely and/or make them quantifiable in order to be able to evaluate progress.  

In addition, JNAP 2 identifies a number of objectives, including:  

• Mainstreaming climate resilience by strengthening existing decision-making structures, reflecting considerations related climate resilience in government planning and implementation, and developing guidelines, 
• Strengthening data collection and dissemination by building capacity and systematically sharing data across entities,  
• Developing a monitoring system to strengthen meteorological services, to assess water and soil conditions,  
• Raising awareness and increasing access to information within government, private sector, communities, and private households through trainings and web portals,  
• Increasing access to finance by establishing a coordination mechanism for funding from development partners, simplifying and harmonizing procedures for disbursement. 

However, it is unclear how these objectives relate to the targets identified earlier. Nevertheless, objectives from the JNAP 2 related to data gathering and monitoring are regarded as the most relevant to be reflected in the 2020 NDC. Both would allow to develop specific targets, increase transparency, and improve communication in later iterations of the Nationally Determined Contributions(post-2020). 

Box 1. Marine Protected Areas 

The 2015 INDC included a provision calling for the doubling the number of Marine Protected Areas (MPA) by 2030, compared to 2015. However, the document does not elaborate on how an increase in Marine Protected Areas would reduce GHG emissions or strengthen Tonga’s adaptive capacity towards the adverse impact of climate change (Government of Tonga, 2015).^[21]

In-country interviews provided conflicting information on whether increasing the number of Marine 

Protected Areas is considered a mitigation or an adaptation target. On the one hand, it was mentioned that Marine Protected Areas were included in the 2015 INDC, because they were regarded as a means to maintain or increase the absorption of carbon from the atmosphere by sea organisms. However, the document does not provide any evidence that establishing Marine Protected Areas has a positive effect on carbon sequestration. On the other hand, in-country interviews suggested that the expansion of Marine Protected Areas should be considered as an adaptation target as the aim of MPAs is to preserve marine biodiversity and fish populations. However, the 2015 INDC does also not elaborate on how an increase in the number of MPAs would strengthen adaptive capacity (Government of Tonga, 2015).  

Independent of the questions whether or not MPAs are a suitable means to support mitigation or strengthen adaptive capacity, in-country consultation suggested that the number of Marine Protected Areas has increased from six in 2015 to ten in 2020. However, this change could not be confirmed by other sources with available data for the period from 2016 to 2018 showing no change in the size of Marine Protected Areas. World Bank (2019) reported a constant 1.5% of Tonga territorial waters — equivalent to approximately 10,050 km² — to be covered by Marine Protected Areas.^[22] This figure coincides with data published as part of the Tonga Fisheries Sector Plan 2016-2024, reporting 10,100 km² of marine conservation area (Government of Tonga, World Bank, and International Fund for Agricultural Development, 2016).  

For the 2020 NDC, in-country consultations recommended to consider Marine Protected Areas as a means for mitigation as well as a means for adaptation. Therefore, it is suggested to include a non-emission target for preserving Tonga’s marine biodiversity to function as a carbon sink, considering MPAs as a measure to achieve this target. In addition, Marine Protected Areas could be mentioned under adaptation as a means for coastal protection and food security. However, it should be noted that connecting MPAs to a measurable target is unlikely. While the area covered by MPAs can be measured, it will not be possible to express their impact to function as a carbon sink as well as their effect on resilience as a quantifiable target. 

4.2 Implementation 

The 2015 INDC does not identify measures to strengthen adaptation. In that context, it is very important to distinguish between goals and the means to achieve these goals. This is not the case in the 2015 INDC. While the 2015 INDC refers to a list of goals related to resilience, the National Forest Policy enumerates the same statements as measures (Government of Tonga, 2015; Government of Tonga et al., 2009). Therefore, in the 2020 NDC, it is recommended to systematically identify relevant goals and the related measures to achieve them. Examples are provided in Table 6 below. 

Table 6. Example of matching goals with measures 

Maintaining national parks, reserves            Provide necessary funding to enforce logging ban and protected areas 

Source: GGGI 

Several existing policies and plans identify relevant measures, which could be drawn upon for the formulation of the 2020 NDC. Among others, the 2016 Tonga Agriculture Sector Plan includes measures to support climate-resilient agriculture. In that context, the plan refers to the maintenance of soil conditions, rotational and mixed cropping, diversity in life stock, and water management, among others. For example, in order to maintain soil conditions, the plan proposes to conduct soil surveys and trials with fertilizers and vermiculture. To improve water management, the plan suggests estimating groundwater resource and their current exploitation as well as identifying potential use and/or need for protection (Government of Tonga, World Bank, and IFAD, 2016b).^[23] Similarly, the National Forest Policy and the Forest Management Plan contain measures to enhance coastal protection in Tonga (Government of Tonga et al., 2009; Ministry of Agriculture Food Forestry and Fisheries, 2017). 

In addition, JNAP 2 identifies a range of activities to achieve its objectives. Some of these activities could be included in the 2020 NDC if it was to reflect any of the objectives from the JNAP 2.

4.3 Communication 

The 2015 INDC refers to adaptation in various sections of the document. However, adaptation is not addressed systematically. Following the example of the JNAP2, it is recommended for the 2020 NDC to provide an overview of the different phenomena related to climate change — including changes in temperatures, shifts in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea levels, ocean acidification, and the occurrence of tropical cyclones — and their impact on Tonga (Table 7). This overview should summarize what can be regarded as consensus in the existing literature, highlight areas of uncertainty, and indicate areas in need of future research. 

Table 7. Overview of phenomena related to climate change in Tonga 

Source: Compiled by GGGI                                                                         

Table 7. Overview of phenomena related to climate change in Tonga (continued) 

5. Recommendations

This report reviewed and assessed Tonga’s 2015 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions regarding the identified goals and targets, the proposed measures to achieve those targets, and the clarity and transparency of communicating the relevant information. Based on the results of this review process, recommendations were developed for the scope and content of the 2020 NDC (see Table 8 for a summary of the recommendations).  

First, following international best practice, to the extent possible, it is recommended that mitigation targets in the 2020 NDC are formulated in terms of GHG emission reductions. 

Second, it is recommended to follow the 2006 IPCC guidelines for reporting GHG emissions and selecting targets for reducing emissions. This will considerably enhance transparency and clarity. 

Third, it is recommended to keep the focus of mitigation targets on the energy sector. However, the 2015 INDC largely focused on reducing emissions from electricity generation. It is recommended to expand the scope for the 2020 NDC and includes targets for the transport as well as for commercial, institutional and residential end-use. Such targets could be based on the upcoming Energy Efficiency Master Plan. 

Furthermore, given that none of the existing targets for the AFOLU sectors is quantified in terms of emission reduction or emissions removal as well as the uncertainty of the extent of carbon sequestration, it is recommended for the 2020 NDC to identify a non-emission target for the AFOLU sector. For that purpose, it is suggested to include the establishment of forest inventory to improve clarity and transparency for the sector. Based on data obtained through the forest inventory, it is recommended to include a GHG emissions target for the AFOLU sector in the 2025 NDC.  

Similarly, given the minimal amount of emissions from the industry and waste sectors, combined with the paucity of relevant data, it is recommended to not include emission targets for these two sectors in the 2020 NDC. It is suggested for these non-emission targets to focus on increasing clarity and transparency. In case of the waste sector, it is recommended to expand the formal waste collection system, including the collection of relevant data in order to define relevant GHG emissions targets for the 2025 NDC. 

In addition, for the 2020 NDC, in-country consultations recommended to consider Marine Protected Areas as a means for mitigation as well as a means for adaptation. Therefore, it is suggested to include a non-emission target for preserving Tonga’s marine biodiversity to function as a carbon sink, considering MPAs as a measure to achieve this target. In addition, Marine Protected Areas could be mentioned under adaptation as a means to support coastal protection and food security. However, either target will likely not be quantifiable, and — as a result — their achievement will be difficult to verify. Stakeholders suggested also considering Special Management Areas (SMAs). However, there is a need for clarification on the concept, definition and relationship between MPAs and SMAs (see Annex 4 to this report). Therefore, it is recommended to include only MPAs in the 2020 NDC. This would also provide consistency with the 2015 INDC. 

Fourth, the 2015 INDC generally omits to identify measures to achieve the proposed targets. However, identifying relevant means is crucial to establish realistic targets and to measure progress. It is suggested that once targets for the 2020 NDC have been identified to draw upon relevant measures from existing policies and plans for the formulation of the 2020 NDC. 

Fifth, the 2015 INDC’s clarity and transparency are undermined by a paucity of relevant data and an inability for third parties to re-calculate results based on publicly available data. Therefore, it is recommended to ensure the publication of relevant data and calculations to permit verification by third parties. This can be done either as part of the NDC or as part of the national communications to the UNFCCC. In particular, there is a high uncertainty regarding GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use. Therefore, it is suggested to recalculate figures for carbon sequestration. If recalculation is not possible as part of the 2020 NDC, it should be considered to exclude GHG emission data for the AFOLU sector from the document and highlight the existing uncertainty instead. 

Finally, it is recommended for the 2020 NDC to clearly distinguish between mitigation and adaptation. For adaptation, it is suggested for the 2020 NDC to highlight that coping with the impact of an increase in temperature and a rise in sea level are priorities for Tonga. If specific targets for adaptation are to be identified as part of the 2020 NDC, it is recommended to select targets related to increasing temperatures and a rising sea levels. In this context, several targets identified by the Joint National Action Plan 2 on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management are regarded as relevant. However, if any of these targets were to be included in the 2020 NDC, it is recommended to define them more closely and/or make them quantifiable in order to be able to evaluate progress. In order to improve clarity and transparency, it is recommended for the adaptation section of the 2020 NDC to provide an overview of the different phenomena related to climate change and their impact on Tonga, summarizing what can be regarded as consensus in the existing literature, highlighting areas of uncertainty, and indicating areas in need of future research. 

Table 8. Summary of recommendations  

 Follow the 2006 IPCC guidelines for reporting GHG emissions and selecting targets for reducing emissions. This will considerably enhance transparency and clarity. 

Source: GGGI                                                                         

Table 8. Summary of recommendations (continued) 

 Given the minimal amount of emissions from the industry and waste sectors, combined with the paucity of relevant data, do not include any GHG emission targets for these two sectors in the 2020 NDC. Include the target of expanding the formal waste collection system in Tonga beyond Tongatapu, as a prerequisite for collecting relevant data and setting a quantifiable GHG emissions target during the next NDC cycle.

highlighting areas of uncertainty, and indicating areas in need of future research. 

Source: GGGI                                                                         

6. References 

Department of Energy 2020. Installed off-grid renewable energy. 

Fransen, T., Northrop, E., Mogelgaard, K. & Levin, K. 2017. Enhancing NDCs by 2020: Achieving the Goals of the Paris Agreement. Working paper. Washington, DC. : World Resources 

Institute. 

Fransen, T., Sato, I., Levin, K., Waskow, D., Rich, D., Ndoko, S. & Teng, J. 2019. Enhancing NDCs by 

2020: Achieving the Goals of the Paris Agreement. Washington, DC.: World Resources Institute. 

Government of Tonga 2012. Second National Communication. 

Government of Tonga 2015. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. 

Government of Tonga 2018. Joint National Action Plan 2 on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management 2018-2028. 

Government of Tonga 2019. Third National Communication on Climate Change Report. 

Government of Tonga, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, German Agency for International Development Cooperation & Secretariat of the Pacific Community 2009. National Forest Policy for Tonga. 

Government of Tonga & United Nation’s Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN) 2020. Government of Tonga Energy Efficiency Master Plan, Unpublished. 

Government of Tonga, World Bank & International Fund for Agricultural Development 2016a. Tonga Agriculture Sector Plan 2016-2020. 

Government of Tonga, World Bank & International Fund for Agricultural Development 2016b. Tonga Fisheries Sector Plan 2016-2024. 

IPCC 2006a. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Japan, IGES. 

IPCC 2006b. IPCC Waste Model. 

IPCC 2019. 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Calvo Buendia, E., Tanabe, K., Kranjc, A., Baasansuren, J., Fukuda, M., Ngarize, S., Osako, A., Pyrozhenko, Y., Shermanau, P. and Federici, S. (eds). Publish. 

Ministry of Agriculture Food Forestry and Fisheries 2017. Management Plan for the Forests and Tree Resources of Tonga. 

Tonga Power Limited (TPL) 2016. Tonga Power Limited Annual Report 2016. 

Tonga Power Limited (TPL) 2017. Tonga Power Limited Annual Report 2017. 

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7. Annex  

A1. Interview Notes 

A1.1       Department of Climate Change, Greenhouse gas inventory working group 

A1.2       MEIDECC, Department of Energy  

A1.3           Department of Environment 

A1.4       Tonga Bureau of Statistics 

A1.5           Department of Transport, Ministry of Infrastructure, Land Transport Division 

A1.6       Department of Transport, Ministry of Infrastructure, Maritime Transport Division 

A1.7       Civil Aviation Division 

A1.8           Department of Forestry 

A1.9       Ministry of Revenue and Customs  

A1.10      Tonga Power Limited  

A1.11      Tonga Waste Authority Limited  

A1.12      Real Tonga Airline  

A1.13      Pacific Energy  

A1.14      Total  

A2. List of interview participants and contact information 

A3. Barriers and opportunities for achieving the 2020 NDC targets 

The information below was collected from stakeholders at two workshops on the 30th and 31st of July 2020. The stakeholders represented participants from the energy, IPPU, AFOLU, waste and adaptation sectors and cross-cutting areas such as finance, planning, local government and gender. The questions asked to stakeholder during the workshop were: 

• How can the suggested 2020 NDC targets be achieved in Tonga?  
• What are the barriers and opportunities?   
• What enabling actions need to be taken? 

A4. Marine Protected Areas and Special Management Areas 

There are two major strategies for Marine Managed Areas in Tonga. These are: 

1. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs); and 2. Special Management Areas (SMAs). 

Both strategies are managed by Government of which MPAs are managed under the Ministry of MEIDECC (Department of Environment) and SMAs under the Department of Fisheries.  

MPAs are areas of marine protection that are remote from communities, where community management is not possible, and are managed exclusively by the government. MPAs are labelled as 'parks' or 'reserves' designated under the Parks and Reserves Act 1979 (Rev. 1988) and are exclusively 'no-take zones'. SMAs are areas of marine protection that are located near island communities where they can be locally managed under government supervision of the Department of Fisheries (DoF). All SMAs are designated under the Fisheries Management Act 2003 and are 'multiuse' zones. The above-stated government ministries (MEIDECC and DoF) are also responsible for the monitoring of MPAs and SMAs.  

At the NDC review and recommendation validation workshops, the point was raised with regard to whether both MPAs and SMAs should be included in the 2020 NDC. This lead to discussions of some points which need to be decided first before making further decisions on how MPAs and SMAs are included into the future NDCs. At the validation workshops, it was recommended that there is a need to clarify definition of MPAs and SMAs, including that MPAs are all no-take zones and SMAs also in some cases include no-take zones so there are overlaps. The concept of MPA and SMA having a notake policy is their similar characteristic that warrants them to be categorized together. There was a suggestion to use Marine Managed Areas to house both the MPA and SMA. However, the MPA is a global definition recognized by the Convention for Biological Diversity while the SMA is a national term dictated by Tonga and MMA is a regional term. To house the MPA & SMA under MMA was thus not regarded as ideal and stakeholders agreed there is a need for further discussion between the Department of Environment and the Ministry of Fisheries regarding this issue.