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Distribution Development Plan
2010-2019
Department of Energy
January 2012
Acknowledgement
We would like to acknowledge the invaluable support of National Electrification Administration, Private Investor Owned Utilities, Local Government Unit Owned Utilities, and Electric Cooperatives under the National Electrification Administration and the Cooperative Development Authority in the preparation of this 2010-2019 Distribution Development Plan.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
I. 2010 DISTRIBUTION DEVELOPMENT PLAN
1.1 Introduction 2 1.2 Highlights of 2010 DDP 2
II. SUMMARY TABLES
Table 1 DDP submission rate of DUs 2
Table 2 Total Number of Customers 2009-2019 11
Table 3 Luzon DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2010-2019 12
Table 4 Visayas DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2010-2019 13
Table 5 Mindanao DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2010-2019 14
Table 6 Projected Infrastructure Requirements 2010-2019 15
Table 7 Projected Capital Investment Requirements (Million Pesos) 2010-2019 16
Table 8 Comparative Distribution Development Plan 17
III. ANNEXES
Annex 1 Luzon DUs Distribution Development Plan
Annex 1A One-Page DDP Summary 18
Annex 1B Vicinity Map of Luzon Distribution Utilities 19
Annex 1C Luzon PIOUs and LGUOUs 20
Annex 1D Luzon ECs 30
Annex 2 Visayas DUs Distribution Development Plan
Annex 2A One-Page DDP Summary 82
Annex 2B Vicinity Map of Visayas Distribution Utilities 83
Annex 2C Visayas PIOUs and LGUOUs 84
Annex 2D Visayas ECs 89
Annex 3 Mindanao DUs Distribution Development Plan
Annex 3A One-Page DDP Summary 119
Annex 3B Vicinity Map of Mindanao Distribution Utilities 120
Annex 3C Mindanao PIOUs and LGUOUs 121
Annex 3D Mindanao ECs 126
Annex 4 List of Distribution Utilities in the Philippines 163
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 1 2010 DDP Submission Rate 2
TABLE 2 Total Number of Customers 2009-2019 11
TABLE 3 Luzon DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2010-2019 12
TABLE 4 Visayas DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2010-2019 13
TABLE 5 Mindanao DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2010-2019 14
TABLE 6 Projected Infrastructure Requirements 2010-2019 15
TABLE 7 Projected Capital Investment Requirements 2010-2019 16
Table 8 Comparative Distribution Development Plan 17
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1 DUs Number of Customers (x 1000) 2009-2019 2
FIGURE 2 Luzon: Growth Rate of number of Customers and Energy Sales 3
FIGURE 3 Visayas: Growth Rate of number of Customers and Energy Sales 4
FIGURE 4 Mindanao: Growth rate of number of Customers and Energy Sales 4
FIGURE 5 Peak Demand per Grid (MW) 2005-2019 5
FIGURE 6 Luzon DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2005-2019 6
FIGURE 7 Visayas DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2005-2019 7
FIGURE 8 Mindanao DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2005-2019 7
FIGURE 9 DUs Energy Purchased/Generated per Grid (GWh) 2005-2019 8
FIGURE 10 Expansion and Rehabilitation (ckt-km) 2010-2019 9
FIGURE 11 Total Substation Capacity Addition (MVA) 2010-2019 9
FIGURE 12 Capital Expenditure Requirement (PhP B) 2010-2019 10
ANNEXES
Annex 1C Luzon PIOUs and LGUOUs One-Page DDP Summary 20
Annex 1D Luzon ECs One-Page DDP Summary 30
Annex 2C Visayas PIOUs and LGUOUs One-Page DDP Summary 84
Annex 2D Visayas ECs One-Page DDP Summary 89
Annex 3C Mindanao PIOUs and LGUOUs One-Page DDP Summary 121
Annex 3D Mindanao ECs One-Page DDP Summary 126
Annex 4 List of Distribution Utilities in the Philippines 163
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The 2010 – 2019 Distribution Development Plan (DDP) update is the 7th publication since the passage of the Electric Power Industry Reform Act of 2001 (EPIRA). In the planning period 2010-2019, the Distribution Utilities (DUs) expect an increase in peak demand of 4,258 MW from 8,856 MW in 2009 to 13,113 MW in 2019, representing an average growth of 4.0% annually. Luzon is projected to have a 3.9% annual average growth rate in peak demand, from 7,057 MW in 2010 to 9,553 MW in 2019. Visayas and Mindanao will have a higher growth rate at 4.5% and 4.4% respectively from 1,204 MW in 2010 to 1,737 MW in 2019 for Visayas, and from 1,250 MW in 2010 to 1,823 MW in 2019 for Mindanao.
In terms of aggregated energy requirements of DUs in Luzon, it is projected to grow at an annual average growth rate of 4.0%, equivalent to 16,023 GWh, over the ten-year planning period, from 40,504 GWh in 2010 to 56,527 GWh in 2019. Visayas DUs is seen to register an annual average growth rate of 4.7% or 3,132 GWh, from 6,354 GWh in 2010 to 9,486 GWh in 2019, Mindanao DUs will register a 4.4% annual average growth rate or 3,114 GWh, from 7,019 GWh in 2010 to 10,133 GWh in 2019.
Likewise, the DUs are projecting a substantial increase in the number of customers by 2019:Luzon at 12.122 million; Visayas at 3.593 million; and Mindanao at 3.267 million. These translate to an annual average growth rate of 3.01% in Luzon, 4.09% in Visayas, and 4.02% in Mindanao energy sales, respectively. Increase of number of DU’s customer is particular to the increase by 5,001,088 residential customers of the expected 5,362,752 DU customers over the planning period. Overall, from total of 13,619,247 customers in 2009, DUs are projecting a total of 18,979,999 customers by 2019.
To meet the projected increase in energy requirements over the planning horizon, an estimated 26,565 ckt-km of lines are programmed for rehabilitation and/or upgrading, 17,630 ckt-km of lines are for construction, and an additional 5,232 MVA substation capacity will be constructed. These will have corresponding investment requirements amounting to PhP 68.1 billion, broken down into: PhP 18.4 billion for electrification projects, PhP 17.2 billion for construction new lines, PhP 11.1 billion for additional substation capacity, and PhP 21.3 billion for rehabilitation of distribution lines.
2010 Distribution Development Plan
1.1 Introduction
The Department of Energy (DOE) publishes annually the Distribution Development Plan (DDP) of all distribution utilities (DUs) in the country. The DOE consolidates into the national DDP the individual DDPs of DUs: the Private Investor-Owned Utilities (PIOUs), Local Government Unit-Owned Utilities (LGUOUs), Multi-purpose Cooperatives, and the Electric Cooperatives (ECs) as endorsed by the National Electrification Administration (NEA).
The annual submission and preparation of DDP is in compliance with Republic Act No. 9136 and is prescribed by the DOE Department Circular No. 2004-02-002.
The DDP covers the DUs1 10-year program on acquisition of sub-transmission assets, expansion and rehabilitation of distribution facilities and the costs associated to these activities in order to deliver the electric power services to the projected number of customers, and their corresponding energy and demand requirements.
The 2010 DDP contains the individual DDPs of 122 DUs (Table 1). This is the 7th annual update of DUs consolidated DDP.
1.2 Highlights of the 2010 DDP
Number of Customers and Sale
In 2009, DUs provided electricity services to at least 13.617 million customers. Over the 2010-2019 planning period, DUs are expecting a 3.5% increase in the number of customers in 2010, 3.3% in 2014 and 3.4% in 20192 (Figure 1). The DUs in Luzon are projecting that their customers will reach 12.122 million in 2019 whereas DUs in the Visayas and Mindanao will have to expand their services to 3.598 million and 3.265 million customers, respectively by 2019 (Table 2).
Luzon
Over the planning period, Luzon PIOUs and LGUOUs are projecting an increase of 1.9% in their number of customers whereas Luzon ECs project a 4.3% increase in its customers.
The projected growth rate of 3.0% in the total number of customers in the Luzon grid, from 9.274 million customers in 2010 to 12.122 million customers in 2019 will have a corresponding increase in energy sales of 3.66%, with estimated energy sales of 35,401 GWh in 2010 to 49,570 GWh in 2019 (Figure 2).
In 2009, residential customers of Luzon DUs account to approximately 52% and 39% respectively of Luzon’s total number of customers. Over the planning period, residential customers of Luzon PIOUs/LGUOUs customers will increase by in average of 1.9%, while for the ECs an average of 4.5% are residential customers. Projected increase in sales for 2010 to 2012, is due to the expected entry of large load customers in, among others, BENECO, INEC, and PANELCO I, and also due to the expected increase in consumption of existing large load customer of SEZ, TEI, and SFELAPCO.
Visayas
In the Visayas, PIOUs are expecting an increase of 2.3% in their number of customers while the ECs project an increase of 4.5% in its customers.
In 2009, of the total number of DU customers in Visayas region, 4.7% are residential customers of ECs and 2.0% are PIOU customers. Over the planning period, 4.5% of ECs customers will be residential while 2.3% for PIOUs customers. Approximately 90% in the Visayas region will be residential customers.
A growth rate in energy sales of 4.82% is projected in the Visayas Grid, from 5,702 GWh in 2010 to 8,561 GWh in 2019. This is in comparison with the 4.11% expected growth rate in the number of customers over the planning period from 2.405 million customers in 2010 to 3.598 million customers in 2019 (Figure 3). The sudden increase in sales projection in 2015 is attributed to the entry of CEMEX, a cement manufacturing company, in the VECO franchise.
Mindanao
In Mindanao, PIOUs are projecting an increase of 3.2% in their number of customers while the ECs project an increase of 5.8% in its customers. In total, it is estimated that there will be 3.265 million customers in 2019 from 2.317 million customers in 2010. This is equivalent to a growth rate of 4.02%.
Note: 2009 Figures are actual.
With this increase in the number of customer, Mindanao DUs expect an equivalent growth rate in energy sales over the planning by an average growth rate of 4.77%, from 6,185 GWH in 2010 to 9,156 GWH in 2019 (Figure 4). With this increase in the number of customer, Mindanao DUs expect an equivalent growth rate in energy sales over the planning by an average growth rate of 4.77%, from 6,185 GWH in 2010 to 9,156 GWH in 2019 (Figure 4).
Approximately 88% of Mindanao DUs were residential customer in the year 2009. This percentage will relatively not change over the planning period. Of the total customers of Mindanao DUs, 18% are residential customers of PIOUs while 70% are residential customers of ECs. Approximately 88% of Mindanao DUs were residential customer in the year 2009. This percentage will relatively not change over the planning period. Of the total customers of Mindanao DUs, 18% are residential customers of PIOUs while 70% are residential customers of ECs.
Demand RequirementDemand Requirement
In the planning period, 2010-2019, the DUs total peak demand3, which stood at 8,854 MW in 2009, is expected to grow annually at an average rate of 4.0% (Figure 5). Luzon’s peak demand is estimated to increase annually at an average of 3.9%, with demand reaching 7,057 MW in 2010 and 9,553 MW in 2019 (Figure 6). In Visayas, DUs demand is estimated to peak at 1,203 MW in 2010 and 1,737 MW in 2019, equivalent to an annual average growth rate of 4.4% over the planning period. In Mindanao, DUs are projecting an annual average rate of 4.4% increase in peak demand, from 1,250 MW in 2010 to 1,823 MW in 2019.
Actual peak demand for the country from 2005 to 2009 increased at the average rate of 2.4% or 796 MW, from 8,058 MW in 2005 to 8,854 MW in 2009. Visayas led the grid with an increase of 3.6% or 147 MW, followed by Mindanao with 3.2% or 141 MW and then Luzon with 2.1% or 508 MW.
Luzon
Luzon PIOUs and LGUOUs peak demand will increase annually at an average of 3.5%, with demand reaching 5,760 MW in 2010 and 7,480 MW in 2019 (Table 3). Meralco will have an average increase in demand of 3.5% with demand of 5,340 MW in 2010 and 6,937 MW in 2019 while the rest of the PIOUs and LGUOUs will have an accumulated demand of 401 MW in 2010 and 528 MW in 2019 equivalent to an average increase in growth of 3.1%. ECs estimate an annual average increase of 4.3% at 1,298 MW in 2010 to 2,074 MW in 2019 (Figure 6).
Luzon ECs have increased their demand at a rate of 2.3% or 106 MW while Luzon PIOUs/LGUOUs have 2.0% or 402 MW increase in their demand from 2005 to 2009. Meralco’s peak demand of 4,910 MW in CY2009 accounted for 71% of Luzon’s Peak Demand of 6,928 MW4 for that year.
Visayas
Visayas PIOUs peak demand will increase at an average of 4.3% annually, with demand reaching 530 MW in 2010, 625 MW in 2014 and further to 717 MW in 2019 while Visayas ECs are expected to increase by an annual average rate of 4.5% (Figure 7). Actual demand from 2005 to 2009 in Visayas showed that ECs increased their demand with 89 MW or 3.8% while PIOUs/LGUOUs added 59 MW or 3.3% to their demand.
On a per island basis, DUs in Leyte-Samar expect an increase of 4.7% in peak demand from 119 MW in 2010 to 181 MW in 2019, Cebu DUs, including Mactan’s, sees demand to increase from 498 MW in 2010 to 652 MW in 2019, equivalent to an annual average growth rate of 3.9% (Table 4). Bohol DUs expect an increase of 5.7% average growth rate. DUs in Negros projected an accumulative 4.4% average growth rate in demand with demand expected to be 237 MW in 2010 increasing to 349 MW in 2019. The eight DUs in Panay, expected demand to be 229 MW in 2010 and increase to 359 MW in 2019 representing an equivalent increase of 5.0%. VECO’s peak demand of 336 MW in CY2009 accounted for 27% of Visayas Peak Demand of 1,241 MW5 for that year. VECO’s peak demand of 336 MW in CY2009 accounted for 27% of Visayas Peak Demand of 1,241 MW5 for that year.
4 Data from the National Grid Coprporation of the Philippines
Mindanao Mindanao
Mindanao PIOUs have projected to have an annual increase of an average rate of 3.1% in peak demand, with demand reaching 452 MW in 2010 and 614 MW in 2019 (Table 5). Davao Light and Power Corporation (DLPC) sees its demand to increase from 268 MW in 2010 to 374 MW in 2019, equivalent to an average increase of 3.43% while the rest of the PIOUs will have an accumulated demand of 184 MW in 2010 and 241 MW in 2019 equivalent to an average increase in growth of 2.54%. ECs expected a higher increase in peak demand at an average rate of 5.2% annually, bringing peak demand from 799 MW in 2010 to 1,209 MW in 2019 (Figure 8). Mindanao PIOUs have projected to have an annual increase of an average rate of 3.1% in peak demand, with demand reaching 452 MW in 2010 and 614 MW in 2019 (Table 5). Davao Light and Power Corporation (DLPC) sees its demand to increase from 268 MW in 2010 to 374 MW in 2019, equivalent to an average increase of 3.43% while the rest of the PIOUs will have an accumulated demand of 184 MW in 2010 and 241 MW in 2019 equivalent to an average increase in growth of 2.54%. ECs expected a higher increase in peak demand at an average rate of 5.2% annually, bringing peak demand from 799 MW in 2010 to 1,209 MW in 2019 (Figure 8).
Mindanao ECs increased by 3.1% or 84 MW in their demand while Mindanao PIOUs had 3.4% increase or 57 MW in their demand from 2005 to 2009. DLPC’s peak demand of 267 MW in CY2009 accounted for 21% of Mindanao’s Peak Demand of 1,303 MW6 for the year. Mindanao ECs increased by 3.1% or 84 MW in their demand while Mindanao PIOUs had 3.4% increase or 57 MW in their demand from 2005 to 2009. DLPC’s peak demand of 267 MW in CY2009 accounted for 21% of Mindanao’s Peak Demand of 1,303 MW6 for the year.
5 Data from the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines 5 Data from the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines
6 Data from the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines 6 Data from the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines
Figure 7. Visayas DUs Peak Demand (MW), 2005-2019
Overall, DUs anticipate an increase of 4,359 MW in peak demand over the planning horizon, 3,000 MW in Luzon, 616 MW in Visayas, and 642 MW in Mindanao. Overall, DUs anticipate an increase of 4,359 MW in peak demand over the planning horizon, 3,000 MW in Luzon, 616 MW in Visayas, and 642 MW in Mindanao.
Energy RequirementEnergy Requirement
DUs will require 53,877 GWh in 2010, 62,314 GWh in 2014 and 76,146 GWh in 20197 (Figure 9). An annual average growth rate of 4.0% in the energy requirements in Luzon is projected over the ten-year planning period from 40,504 GWh in 2010 to 56,527 GWh in 2019. Visayas is seen to register an annual average growth rate of 4.7%, from 6,354 GWh in 2010 to 9,486 GWh in 2019, whereas Mindanao will register a 4.4% annual average growth rate, from 7,019 GWh in 2010 to 10,133 GWh in 2019. From 2005 to 2009, Luzon grid demanded 2.2% increase or 3,185 GWh of energy; Visayas grid required 4.8% increase or 1,025 GWh and Mindanao grid had 3.8% or 914 GWh in their generation.
Luzon’s PIOUs and LGUOUs energy requirement will increase at an average of 3.6% annually, from 33,851 GWh in 2010 to 45,484 GWh in 2019, while Luzon ECs are expecting an increase of 5.7% annually from 6,653 GWh in 2010 to 11,043 GWH in 2019.
Visayas PIOUs energy requirements will grow at an average of 4.4% annually, from 2,986 GWh in 2010 to 4,281 GWh in 2019, while that of Visayas ECs will rise by 5.0% from 3,368 GWh in 2010 to 5,204 GWh in 2019.
The Cebu sub-grid energy requirement will be at 2,653 GWh in 2010 and 3,625 GWh by 2019, representing a 4.0% annual average growth rate. Negros and Panay sub-grids will have an average growth rate of 4.6% and 5.4%, respectively, with energy requirement of 1,198 GWh in 2010 and 1,805 GWh in 2019 for Negros and 1,143 GWh in 2010 and 1,816 GWh in 2019 for Panay.
Mindanao PIOUs energy requirement will increase at an average of 3.3% annually, 2,754 GWh in 2010 and 3,648 GWh in 2019, while their EC counterparts see a growth of 5.1%, 4,265 in 2010 and 6,485 GWh in 2019. Overall, DUs sees an increase of 25,280 GWh in energy requirement over the planning horizon, 18,231 GWh in Luzon, 3,491 GWh in Visayas, and 3,558 GWh in Mindanao.
Infrastructure and Capital RequirementsInfrastructure and Capital Requirements
In order to provide quality, secure and reliable power, about 26,565 ckt-km of lines are programmed for rehabilitation and/or upgrading and 17,630 ckt-km of lines are for construction while an additional 5,232 MVA substation capacity will be constructed8 (Figure 10 and 11). On a per grid basis, Luzon DUs will require 3,710 MVA additional substation capacity, 7,171 ckt-km of new distribution lines and rehabilitation of 21,466 ckt-km of lines (Table 6). In the Visayas, DUs plan to rehabilitate 2,443 ckt-km of lines, extend coverage of distribution lines by 5,170 ckt-km, and construct new substation capacity of 848 MVA. In Mindanao, developments in infrastructure requirements are focused on construction of 675 MVA substation capacity and 5,289 ckt-km of distribution lines, and rehabilitation of 2,656 ckt-km of lines.
Implementing all these projects will require PhP 68.1 billion investments (Figure 12). The largest bulk of the financial investments, estimated at about PhP 21.3 billion are for the rehabilitation while PhP 18.4 billion will be utilized in the electrification projects. PhP 28.3 billion will be utilized for new distribution lines and additional substation capacity (Table 7).
In Luzon, costs for rehabilitation of distribution lines will amount to PhP 9.4 billion whereas construction of additional substation capacity and implementation of electrification projects will require PhP 3.4 billion and PhP 8.7 billion, respectively. Expansion projects will entail PhP 7.2 billion in cost. Looking at similar infrastructure requirements in Visayas, expansion of new distribution lines will reach PhP 2.7 billion.
Moreover, total cost for new substation capacities is estimated at PhP 5.2 billion, electrification projects at PhP 3.9 billion and rehabilitation projects at PhP 4.4 billion. Similarly, to improve system performance in Mindanao, DUs are projecting an investment of PhP 7.4 billion in expansion of new distribution lines, PhP 2.5 billion in additional substation capacities, PhP 5.8 billion in electrification projects, and PhP 7.5 billion in rehabilitation and upgrading of existing distribution lines.