Submission of Japan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)

Japan is pleased to communicate its intended nationally  determined contribution, as well as information to facilitate the clarity, transparency, and understanding of the contribution.

Climate change is a global challenge. To solve the problem, it is essential to establish a fair and effective new international framework which is applicable to all major Parties. Japan will contribute, in cooperation with other Parties, to the establishment of such an international framework at the twenty-first session of  the Conference of  the Parties (COP)  to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Thereunder, Japan will, together with all  major  emitters, undertake domestic emission reductions and also contribute to reducing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through Japan’s leading technologies and support for developing countries.

Having faced a drastic change in its circumstances with regard to energy due to the Great East Japan Earthquake and the accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company’s Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station, Japan decided the new Strategic Energy Plan last year as a starting point for reviewing and rebuilding our energy strategy from scratch.

Japan’s INDC towards post-2020 GHG emission reductions is at the level of a reduction of 26.0% by fiscal year (FY) 2030 compared to FY 2013 (25.4% reduction compared to FY 2005) (approximately 1.042 billion t-CO2 eq. as 2030 emissions), ensuring consistency with its energy mix1, set as a feasible reduction target by bottom-up calculation with concrete policies, measures and individual technologies taking into adequate consideration, interalia, technological and cost constraints, and set based on the amount of domestic emission reductions and removals assumed to be obtained.

1 The term "energy mix" in this INDC refers to the "Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook" for FY 2030, decided by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on July 16, 2015.

Fairness and Ambition

Ÿ Japan’s GHG emissions per gross domestic product (GDP) are 0.29 kg-CO2eq./U.S. dollar in 2013 and per capita are 11t-CO2eq./person in 2013, while the energy efficiency of the country as a whole (primary energy supply/GDP) is 95 t of oil equivalent/U.S. million dollars in 2013, all of which are already at the leading level among developed countries.

Ÿ While it is generally analyzed that the marginal cost of reducing GHG emissions is high in Japan due, interalia, to the measures taken so far, the indicators noted above are projected to improve by around 20 to 40% by 2030 with further measures to reduce emissions.

ŸJapan’s INDC is highly transparent and concrete, as it has been drawn up by accumulating concrete policies and measures for major sectors with clear breakdowns. Each Party’s submission and sharing of information on each sector in this manner would contribute to improving transparency, ensuring fairness, and also enabling effective reviews. This would promote sector-by-sector actions, which would lead to fair and efficient reductions of global emissions.

ŸFor example, with regard to Japan’s industrial sectors, both steel (converter steel production) and cement (clinker production) have attained the world’s highest level of energy efficiency, but further improvement is planned through specific policies and measures listed in the attached documents, such as promotion and enhancement of the industries’ action plans towards a low carbon society.

Contribution towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2

ŸTowards achieving the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC, in order to hold the increase in global temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius, it is indispensable to take measures for long-term emission reductions globally. Japan’s INDC is consistent with the long-term emission pathways up to 2050 to achieve the 2 degrees Celsius goal as presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and with the goal the country upholds, namely, “the goal of achieving at least a 50% reduction of global GHG emissions by 2050, and as a part of this, the goal of developed countries reducing GHG emissions in aggregate by 80% or more by 2050”. Japan will contribute proactively to  these long-term reductions, through its  GHG emission reduction measures presented in its INDC, and through actions that will be continuously taken into the future such as development and diffusion of low-carbon technologies and transition to a low-carbon socio-economic structure.

Japan’s INDC towards post-2020 GHG emission reductions is at the level of a reduction of 26.0% by fiscal year (FY) 2030 compared to FY 2013 (25.4% reduction compared to FY 2005) (approximately 1.042 billion t-CO2 eq. as 2030 emissions), ensuring consistency with its energy mix, set as a feasible reduction target by bottom-up calculation with concrete policies, measures and individual technologies taking into adequate consideration, interalia, technological and cost constraints, and set based on the amount of domestic emission reductions and removals assumed to be obtained.

Base years:

Ÿ   FY 2013 and FY 2005; FY 2013 is the base year mainly used for presenting Japan’s INDC.

Target year: Japan’s FY 2030

Period for implementation：from April 1, 2021 to March 31, 2031 (FY 2021 to FY 2030)

Scope (Sectors, Gases, Coverage)

ŸSectors: All sectors and categories encompassing the following:

(a)  Energy

-Fuel Combustion (Energy industries, Manufacturing industries and Construction, Transport, Commercial/Institutional, Residential, Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing, and Other)

-Fugitive emissions from fuels

-CO2 transport and storage

(b)  Industrial processes and product use

(c)  Agriculture

(d)  Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)

(e)  Waste

Ÿ   Gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 and NF3

Ÿ   Coverage: 100%

Planning process

Ÿ Japan’s INDC has been developed, taking into account, interalia, decisions of the COP, actions by other countries, progress in deliberations on a future framework under the Convention, and domestic consideration of the energy policies and its energy mix.

ŸThe INDC was considered through discussions open to the public at the Joint Experts’ Meeting of the Central Environment Council (Subcommittee on Global Warming Measurement after 2020, Global Environment Committee) and the Industrial Structure Council (INDC WG, Global Environment Subcommittee, Committee on Industrial Science and Technology Policy and Environment).

ŸEnergy policies and the energy mix were considered through open discussions at the Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy.

ŸThe main policies and measures that are expected, at this time, to be implemented for reduction of GHG emissions and removals are listed in the reference information attached.

ŸBased on the discussions above, the Global Warming Prevention Headquarters (ministerial decision-making for global warming countermeasures) developed a draft INDC. After going through public comment procedure, it made a final decision on the INDC.

ŸJapan is to develop the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures based on the Act on Promotion of Global Warming Countermeasures.

Assumptions and methodologies

ŸMethodologies are in line with the Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories prepared by the IPCC, and adopted by the COP.

ŸThe metrics used for the total GHG emissions and removals is the Global Warming Potentials of a 100-year time horizon which were presented in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

ŸRemovals by LULUCF sector are accounted in line with approaches equivalent to those under the Kyoto Protocol.

ŸThe Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) is not included as a basis of the bottom-up calculation of Japan’s emission reduction target, but the amount of emission reductions and removals acquired by Japan under the JCM will be appropriately counted as Japan’s reduction.

ŸThese methodologies are subject to change depending on the progress of future international  negotiations on estimating and accounting rules.

1.    GHG emissions reductions

(1)  Energy-Originated CO2

Approximately 90% of GHG emissions in Japan is covered by energy-originated CO2. Emissions of energy-originated CO2 will be reduced by 25.0% compared to FY 2013 level (24.0% reduction compared to FY 2005 level) (approximately 927 million t-CO2). The estimated emissions in FY 2030 in each sector are shown in Table 1.

Table 1    Estimated emissions of energy-originated CO2 in each sector

［Value：million t-CO2］

(2)  Non-energy originated CO2

The target is set as 6.7% reduction compared to FY 2013 level (17.0% reduction compared to FY 2005 level) (approximately 70.8 million t-CO2).

(3)  Methane

The target is set as 12.3% reduction compared to FY 2013 level (18.8% reduction compared to FY 2005 level) (approximately 31.6 million t-CO2eq.).

(4)  Nitrous oxide

The target is set as 6.1% reduction compared to FY 2013 level (17.4% reduction compared to FY 2005 level) (approximately 21.1 million t-CO2eq.).

Table 2    Estimated emissions of non-energy-originated CO2, methane and nitrous oxide

［value：Million t-CO2eq.］

(5)  Fluorinated gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6 and NF3)

The target is set as 25.1% reduction compared to Calendar Year(CY) 2013 level (4.5% increase compared to CY 2005  level)  (approximately  28.9 million t-CO2eq.).

Table 3   Estimated emissions of fluorinated gases

［value：Million t-CO2eq.］

*   Fluorinated gases are estimated on a CY basis.

2． Removals by LULUCF

The target for removals is set as approximately 37 million t-CO2 (corresponding to 2.6% reduction of total emissions in FY 2013 (corresponding to 2.6% reduction of total emissions in FY 2005)) (approximately 27.8 million t-CO2 by forest carbon sinks measures (corresponding to 2.0% of total emissions in FY 2013 (corresponding to 2.0% reduction of total emissions in FY 2005)), and approximately 9.1 million t-CO2 by cropland management, grazing land management and revegetation (corresponding to 0.6% reduction of total emissions in FY 2013 (corresponding to 0.7% reduction of total emissions in FY 2005))).

3．JCM and other international contributions

Japan establishes and implements the JCM in order both to appropriately evaluate contributions from Japan to GHG emission reductions or removals in a quantitative manner achieved through the diffusion of low carbon technologies, products, systems, services, and infrastructure as well as implementation of mitigation actions in developing countries, and to use them to achieve Japan’s emission reduction target. Apart from contributions achieved through private-sector based projects, accumulated emission reductions or removals by FY 2030 through governmental JCM programs to be undertaken within the government's annual budget are estimated to be ranging from 50 to 100 million t-CO2. As part of international contributions other than the JCM, worldwide emission reduction potential in FY 2030 through the diffusion of leading technologies by Japanese industries’ actions is estimated to be at least 1 billion t-CO2.

Japan will also actively contribute internationally towards, interalia, human resource development and promotion of development and diffusion of technologies relating to emission reductions in developing countries.

Chemical industry

Ÿ  Introduction of energy efficiency and conservation process technology in petrochemicals

Ÿ  Introduction of energy efficiency and conservation process technology in other chemical industry

Ÿ  Introduction of energy efficiency and conservation technology using membranes for distilling process

Ÿ  Introduction of technology which uses CO2 as a feedstock

Ÿ  Introduction of chemical product production technology with inedible plant-based material

Ÿ  Introduction of electricity-generating waste water processing with microbe catalysis

Ÿ  Introduction of sealed plant factory Ceramics, stone and clay products industry

Ÿ  Introduction of conventional energy efficiency and conservation technologies (waste heat power generation, slag crusher, air-beam cooler, separator improvement, vertical roller coal mills)

Ÿ  Introduction of technology for using waste (e.g. waste plastic, etc.) as alternative thermal energy

Ÿ  Introduction of innovative cement production process

Ÿ  Introduction of glass melting process Pulp/paper/paper products manufacture industry

Ÿ  Introduction of high-efficient pulp production technology using old paper

Ÿ  Introduction of high-temperature and pressure recovery boilers

Cross-sectoral/Other

Ÿ  Introduction of high-efficient air conditioner

Ÿ  Introduction of industrial HP (heating-drying)

Ÿ  Introduction of industrial light

Ÿ  Introduction of low-carbon industrial furnace

Ÿ  Introduction of industrial motor

Ÿ  Introduction of high performance boiler

Ÿ  Direct use of recycled plastic flakes

Ÿ  Introduction of hybrid construction machine, etc.

Ÿ  Introduction of energy efficiency and conservation farming machinery

Ÿ  Introduction of energy efficiency and conservation equipment in horticultural facility

Ÿ  Switch to energy efficiency and conservation fishing vessels

Ÿ  Promotion of cooperative energy efficiency and conservation measures across the industries

Ÿ  Promote low-carbonization in special vehicles Factory energy management

Ÿ  Thorough implementation of energy management in the industry sector