PDP2015

Thailand Power Development Plan2015-2036

(PDP2015)

Energy Policy and Planning  Office

June 30, 2015

PDP2015

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Thailand Power Development Plan2015-2036

(PDP2015)

Endorsed by the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) on May 14, 2015

Acknowledged by the Cabinet on June 30, 2015

Table of Contents

Page

1. Introduction       1-1
2. Summary       2-1
3. Thailand Energy Policies       3-1

3.1         Energy Efficiency Development Plan (EEDP) 3-2

3.2         Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) 3-5

3.3         Principles and Directions for Firmed Cogeneration SPPs with PPAs 3-7

expiration date during year 2017-2025

1. Power Demand Forecast       4-1
2. Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP2015)       5-1
3. Transmission System Development Plan       6-1

1. Introduction

In 2012, the Ministry of Energy (Thailand) together with the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) prepared the Thailand Power Development Plan 2012-2030 (PDP2010 Revision 3) to formulate power system development framework. The PDP2010 Revision 3 was endorsed by the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) on June 8, 2012 and acknowledged by the Cabinet on June 19, 2012.

Since the end of year 2014, Sub-committee on Load Forecast and Power Development Plan Formulation considered developing a new PDP to respond to changes in economic and infrastructure development and ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). Therefore, the Ministry of Energy (Thailand) developed 5 integration master plans as follows: (1) Thailand Power Development Plan: PDP, (2) Energy Efficiency Development Plan: EEDP, (3) Alternative Energy Development Plan: AEDP, (4) Natural Gas Supply Plan, and (5) Petroleum Management Plan. The new PDP called “Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015)” focuses on

(1) Energy Security: coping with the increasing power demand to correspond to National Economic and Social Development Plan and taking into account fuel diversification (2) Economy: maintaining an appropriate cost of power generation for long-term economic competitiveness (3) Ecology: lessening carbon dioxide intensity of power generation.

The themes of the PDP2015 emphasize on improving power system reliability by reducing dependence on natural gas power generation, increasing a share of coal power generation via clean coal technology, importing power from neighboring countries, and developing renewable energy. In addition, the plan aims on transmission and distribution system development in order to support for renewable energy development and ASEAN Economic  Community.

Throughout the PDP2015 development process, useful comments and options obtained from all stakeholders were taken into account. Besides, public hearings for the draft of the PDP2015 were conducted on April 8 and 28, 2015 at Rama Garden Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand. Consequently, the Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015) was considered and commented by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) on May 6, 2015. The PDP2015 was endorsed by the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) on May 14, 2015 and acknowledged by the Cabinet on June 30, 2015.

1. Summary

According to the government policies of electricity, the framework of the Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015) formulated in line with the Energy Efficiency Development Plan (EEDP) and the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) was approved by the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) on December 17, 2014 as the following:

1. Energy Security: dealing with an increase in power demand taking into account fuel diversification to lessen the dependency of one particular fuel
2. Economy: maintaining an appropriate cost of power generation and implementing energy efficiency
3. Ecology: reducing environmental and social impacts by lessening carbon dioxide intensity of power generation

The PDP2015 was formulated in line with social and economic development direction addressed by the office of National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB). The average growth of projected long-term Thai Gross Domestic Products (GDP) estimated by the NESDB was 3.94 percent. With the integration of the PDP2015 and the EEDP to foster energy efficiency, the expected energy saving would be 89,672 GWh in year 2036. Moreover, renewable energy, for instance, municipal waste, biomass, biogas, wind and solar power generation will be encouraged according to the AEDP. Investments in transmission and distribution system will accommodate renewable energy and smart-grid development. Consequently, estimated fuel requirements for the PDP2015 are shown in the following table:

2.1      Current Status

Power  requirement:

The peak power demand of year 2014 occurred on April 23, 2014 at 2.26 p.m. with the temperature of 37.5 Degree Celsius, and the maximum power generation of EGAT system reached 26,942.1 MW relating to 344.0 MW or 1.29 percent higher than the record of year 2013.

Generating capacity:

As of December 2014, the total contract capacity was 37,612 MW comprising 34,668 MW from firmed power plants - EGAT, IPPs and firmed-SPPs, 915 MW from non-firmed SPPs, and 2,029 MW from VSPPs. The details of contract capacity of Thailand power system are shown as the following:

Transmission   System:

The standard voltage levels of EGAT transmission system are 500 kV, 230 kV, 132 kV, 115 kV, and 69 kV at operation frequency of 50 Hz. The total length of high voltage transmission line as of December 2014 was 32,526.99 circuit-kilometers comprising 4,167.17 circuit-kilometers of 500 kV, 14,605.12 circuit-kilometers of 230 kV, 8.70 circuit-kilometers of

132 kV, 13,703.93 circuit-kilometers of 115 kV, and 19.00 circuit-kilometers of 69 kV. Besides,

the 300 MW HVDC linked between EGAT and TNB system was 23.07 circuit-kilometers. The total number of high voltage substations was 213 comprising 11 of 500 kV substations, 71 of 230 kV substations, and 131 of 115 kV substations, with total transformer capacity of 88,461.44 MVA.

2.2              Power Demand Forecast

Thailand’s new Power Demand Forecast was calculated upon the average long- term GDP growth during year 2014-2036 estimated by the NESDB of 3.94 percent and the average population growth of 0.03 percent. In addition, the energy saving target from the EEDP accounts for 89,672 GWh, and the renewable energy development target from the AEDP was set at 19,634.4 MW in year 2036.

The Thailand’s new Power Demand Forecast would grow 2.67 percent annually from year 2014 to 2036. In year 2036, the expected energy and power demand would be 326,119 GWh and 49,655 MW respectively. The Power Demand Forecast of the PDP2010 Revision 3 and the PDP2015 are compared as shown in the table below:

2.3              Key Assumptions and Frameworks of  PDP2015

On August 15, 2014, the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) approved assumptions and frameworks to formulate the PDP2015 as the following:

1. Ensuring power system reliability of subsystem areas in terms of generation, transmission and distribution
2. Focusing on fuel diversification in order to lessen the dependence of one particular fuel

-              Reducing natural gas power generation

-              Increasing coal power generation by clean coal technology

-              Purchasing power from neighboring countries not larger than 20 percent of the total capacity

-              Encouraging renewable power generation

-              Maintaining nuclear power plants at the end of plan

1. Ensuring an appropriate level of reserve margin not less than 15 percent of the peak power demand
2. Maintaining       committed       IPPs       and       SPPs       according       to       power       purchase agreements  (PPAs)

2.4              Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015)

With the mentioned assumptions and frameworks, the PDP2015 can be summarized as follows: In 2036, the total capacity would be 70,335 MW comprising existing capacity of 37,612 MW (as of December 2014), new capacity of 57,459 MW, and retired capacity during 2015-2036 of 24,736 MW as shown below:

Generating capacity during 2015 - 2036

New capacity added during 2015-2036 of 57,459 MW can be classified as follows:

To ensure power system reliability of subsystem areas in terms of generation, transmission, and distribution, 2 areas which have high possibilities of power shortages were considered   thoroughly.

Ensuring power system reliability in Southern of Thailand

Power demand in southern of Thailand would grow 3 percent annually; therefore, 3 power plants will be added during 2019-2024 as the followings:

Ensuring        power        system        reliability        in        Metropolitan        area        and central of Thailand

Electricity consumption of metropolitan area - the country’s largest economy area

-                           acquired the largest portion accounting for 30 percent of the total electricity consumption. However, relying on power from other areas, and lacking its own capacity, the area has been confronted with the challenge of the continuously growing power demand. Therefore, power plants are needed to be developed to maintain power system reliability in the area during 2019-2025 as the following:

-                 In       2019,       replacement       of       South       Bangkok       Thermal       Power       Plant unit 1-5 1,300 MW

-                 In 2019, replacement of Bang Pakong Thermal Power Plant unit 1-2 1,300 MW

-                 In 2022, replacement of South Bangkok Combined Cycle Power Plant unit 1-2 1,300 MW

-                 In       2023,       replacement       of       Wang       Noi       Combined       Cycle       Power       Plant unit 1-2 1,300 MW

-                 In       2025,       replacement       of       Wang       Noi       Combined       Cycle       Power       Plant unit 3 1,300 MW

2.5              Transmission System Development Plan

Transmission system development has been one of EGAT’s main responsibilities conducted in order to cope with continuously growing power demand, and to reinforce power system reliability. Major transmission system development plans according to the timeframe of the PDP2015 are as follows:

-                 9 transmission system development projects to cope with       the       rising       power demand

-                 7 transmission system development projects to reinforce power system reliability

-                 5 renovation and expansion projects of retired transmission systems

-                 9 transmission system development projects for power purchases from IPPs, SPPs and power import from neighboring countries

-                 Transmission interconnection project (Grid to Grid)

-                 Smart grid system development

Currently, 13 transmission system development projects are under construction and other 19 projects are in studying processes.

1. Thailand Energy Policies

On September 12, 2014, Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha issued 11 policies in different perspectives to the legislature. The electricity policies were stated in the topic number 6 focusing on transparency, environmental concerns, cooperation among neighboring countries and long-term economic competitiveness by encouraging public and private sector investments on power generating capacity, for instance, fossil fuel power plant and renewable energy. Besides, the topic number 8 focuses on the exploration of technologies and sciences on R&D and innovation, investments and infrastructure development, for instance, clean energy, rail transport system, electric vehicle, and waste and water management.

Therefore, Sub-committee on Load Forecast and Power Development Plan Formulation considered revising The Thailand Power Development Plan 2012-2030 (PDP2010 revision 3) in order to conform to the policies, including infrastructure development, changes in economic, and ASEAN Economic Community.

The Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015) was formulated according to the frameworks and the assumptions approved by the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) on August 15, 2014. Thus, the timeframe of the Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015), the Energy Efficiency Development Plan (EEDP), and the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) were harmonized with the National Economic and Social Development Plan (NESDP).

The Ministry of Energy (Thailand) intended to harmonize 5 integration master plans

– (1) the PDP2015, (2) the EEDP, (3) the AEDP, (4) the Natural Gas Supply Plan, and (5) the Petroleum Management Plan - in order to systemize the country’s energy management.

The Energy Efficiency Development Plan (EEDP) and the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) were described as follows:

3.1              Energy Efficiency Development Plan  (EEDP)

Government anticipated that energy prices would be one of key concerns due to limited energy resources, environmental issues, global warming and climate change challenges which affect people’s quality of life and the country’s competitiveness. Therefore, the 20-year Energy Efficiency Development Plan 2015-2036 (EEDP) was developed  by the Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy (Thailand) to address the issues. The objectives of the EEDP are as follows:

1. To establish the energy conservation targets (heat and electricity) in short term 5 years and long term 20 years where the aim is to reduce energy intensity (EI) by 30 percent in year 2036 compared with that in year 2010 for overall country and energy intensive sectors such as industrial, business, and residential as shown in figure 3.1.
2. To define strategies and guidelines in the energy conservation promotion to achieve the aforementioned targets and to formulate operation plans of the relevant  organizations.

Figure 3.1 the energy conservation target during year 2010-2036

In order to formulate the 20-year Energy Efficiency Development Plan 2015-2036, the Ministry of Energy (Thailand) revised the 20-year Energy Efficiency Development Plan 2011-2030 by adjusting the baseline data and assumptions. Therefore, the target of the EEDP

2015-2036 becomes to reduce energy intensity by 30 percent in year 2036 compared with that in year 2010 or accounting for 56,142 kilo tons of oil equivalent (ktoe). However, energy savings estimated by an energy intensity reduction during year 2010-2013 was 4,442 ktoe. Thus, the energy conservation target would be achieved by measures and projects during year 2015-2036 accounting for 51,700 ktoe where around 15 percent or 7,641 ktoe (89,672 GWh) would be in electricity sectors and around 85 percent or 44,059 ktoe would be in thermal sectors as shown in Figure 3.2.

Figure 3.2 the energy conservation target according to EEDP in year 2036 Moreover, the energy conservation plans of 4 economic sectors - residential,

industrial, business, and transportation – were revised. Therefore, 6 guidelines were stated to encourage energy conservation as follows:

1. Removing / Revising energy price subsidies to create the market price
2. Introducing tax incentives / ESCO fund to encourage the use of efficient appliances
3. Introducing monetary incentives / grants or soft loan along with energy management consulting to encourage the use of high efficiency appliances
4. Defining Industrial Factory and Building Energy Code to be under obligations
5. Building public awareness of energy conservation
6. Defining Energy Efficiency Resources Standard (EERS) for power producers and distributors

According to the EEDP, 6 of the most feasible measures from 34 energy conservation measures would be implemented in electricity sectors accounting for 89,672 GWh of energy savings in year 2036 as shown in Table 3.1

Table 3.1 the energy conservation targets in year 2036 classified by measure (GWh)

The aforementioned energy conservation targets can be shown in table 3.2 and the targets classified by economic sectors can be shown in Table 3.3.

Table 3.2 the energy conservation targets classified by measure (GWh)

Table 3.3 the energy conservation targets classified by economic sector (GWh)

3.2              Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP)

The words - “Alternative Energy” and “Renewable Energy” – started to play a great role in power system. However, the power generation costs from some renewable energy resources have still been higher than those of conventional energy resources such as coal, natural gas, and hydro while renewable energy has been promoted to address global warming and climate change issues causing by greenhouse gases (GHGs). The most well known GHG is Carbon Dioxide (CO2) mostly emitted from combustion of fossil fuels in industrial sectors and electricity power generation. Therefore, the government has been making an effort to push forward the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) in order to become a Low Carbon Society. In the past, to attract investors, the Adder System was used to encourage renewable power generation, while nowadays Feed-in Tariff (FIT) has been planned to be implemented in order to reflect the real cost of renewable power generation and to specify the timeframe of purchasing.

Previously, the timeframe of renewable energy promotion according to the PDP2010 revision 3 and the previous ADEP was during year 2012-2021. The target was to substitute fossil fuel consumption by 25 percent in 10 years, and to analyze the effects of the AEDP on energy prices according to NEPC’s guidance. However, there was a great interest on renewable power generation investments in some areas due to their high incentives causing challenges on the power system and purchasing scheme.

In the new AEDP, the renewable energy promotion schemes were designed to strengthen the community, lessen the dependence on fossil fuels and address social problems such as municipal solid waste and agricultural waste. Therefore, the plan intended to encourage waste, biomass, and biogas power generation as the first priority. According to the plan, the potential of power generation from waste would be 500 MW and the potential

of power generation from biomass would be 2,500 MW. In line with the policies of the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (Thailand), to increase the plantation area of sugar cane and palm, as well as to raise productivity of cassava from 3.5 to 7 tons per Rai per year could increase the potential of 1,500 MW. In addition, area by area zoning and power generation capacity limitation measures were adopted to prevent challenges from the previous plan. It is expected that technology improvement would build up the competitiveness of renewable energy over that of conventional energy especially LNG. The main target of the new AEDP is to increase the portion of renewable energy generation from currently 8 percent to 20 percent of the total power requirement in 2036 which accounts for 19,634.4 MW as shown in Table 3.4

Table 3.4 the Alternative Energy Development Plan in year 2036 (MW)

Remark: 1/ Installed capacity

The portion of renewable energy for power generation has been increasing; therefore, the development of the PDP2015 must be in line with the AEDP. Power system theories should be adopted to prevent the reverse power and to balance supply and demand so that power system reliability will be reinforced. Frameworks adopted in order to address the mentioned issues are as follows:

1. Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE) being the organization responsible for considering potential of each renewable energy resource by area in order to define purchase amount and the timeframe
2. Considering transmission system availability by calculating the existing power demand and quantity of the power purchase from renewable energy of each high voltage substation in order to reduce losses in the transmission system and to define purchase amount
3. Considering distribution system availability by calculating the existing power demand and quantity of power purchase from renewable energy of each

distribution substation in order to define purchase amount, and to prevent reverse power from the distribution system into the transmission system which would cause power losses. Therefore, to prevent such a problem, power generation from renewable energy sources must be managed by the distribution operators - Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA) and Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) -

In the future, the renewable purchase schemes would play a vital role in implementing the AEDP, thus, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) will be responsible for monitoring the country’s renewable energy status, and revising the AEDP by situation. As a result, private investors would have a clear picture of the country’s renewable energy development.

3.3              Principles and Directions for Firmed Cogeneration SPPs with PPAs expiration date during year 2017-2025

The National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) approved principles and directions for firmed cogeneration SPPs with PPAs expiration date during year 2017-2025, the details are as follows:

1. Criteria for       Firmed Cogeneration SPPs with PPAs expiration date duringyear  2017-2025

Cogeneration power plants could generate both electricity power and useful heat in the form of steam. Therefore, it is advantageous for industrial estates not to invest on unnecessary own boilers. Moreover, Replacement of expired Cogeneration SPPs and construction of the news are ease because of community acceptance and the existing infrastructure exploitation. Thus, the criteria for Firmed Cogeneration SPPs with PPAs expiration date during year 2017-2025 are as follows:

1.1                 In case of PPA renewal for old technology cogeneration SPPs, the tariff structure will be renegotiated because the investor has already recovered construction costs.

1.2                 In case of construction of new cogeneration SPPs, it is necessary to promote cogeneration SPPs as Distributed Generation (DG) in order to lessen losses in transmission and distribution system by the following measures:

(1)                Site of cogeneration SPPs must be located in the industrial estates or the manufacturing zones which have high demand of electricity power and steam or cold water.

(2)                Capacity of cogeneration SPPs should be defined at the least possible amount according to demand of the customers in the industrial estates.

(3)                Solid regulation should be adopted to maintain primary fuel efficiency and the cogeneration SPP objectives which are to generate both electricity power and steam.

1. Directions for Firmed Cogeneration SPPs with PPAs expiration date during year  2017-2025

2.1                    Group 1: In case of cogeneration SPPs with PPAs expiration date during year 2017-2018, the term of the PPAs will be extended for 3 to 5 years where EGAT would purchase electricity in excess of the electricity demand of SPPs’ customer at the minimum amount. In addition, the tariff structures will be renegotiated to reflect the real operation  costs.

2.2                    Group 2: In case of cogeneration SPPs with PPAs expiration date during year 2019-2025, construction of new plants required to be located in the former existing SPP sites or adjacent to where the demand of electricity and heat or cold water are intensive. Moreover, the size of power plant would be properly defined to conform to the power and heat demand of customers in the industrial zones. PPAs will last for 20 years. Purchase price will not be set higher than the rate of IPPs. And EGAT would purchase electricity in excess of the electricity demand of SPPs’ customer which is not more than 20 percent of the capacity signed in the previous PPAs. Moreover, solid regulation would also be adopted to maintain the primary fuel efficiency and the cogeneration SPP objectives.

1. Power Demand Forecast

4.1              Current Status of Thailand Power Sector

The peak power demand of year 2014 occurred on April 23, 2014 at 2.26 p.m. with the temperature of 37.5 Degree Celsius where the maximum power generation of EGAT system reached 26,942.1 MW relating to 344.0 MW or 1.29 percent higher than the record of 2013. The energy requirement of EGAT system was 177,580 GWh relating to 4,045 GWh or

2.33 percent higher than the record of the previous year.

The country’s peak power demand occurring at the same time of EGAT system’s reached 27,663.5 MW relating to 549.0 MW or 2.03 percent higher than that of year 2013. The energy requirement increased 5,338.8 GWh or 3.01 percent from the record of year 2013.

4.2              Thailand Power Demand Forecast

The National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) approved assumptions and frameworks to formulate the Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015) on August 15, 2015. In addition, the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) and the Energy Efficiency Development Plan (EEDP) were also formulated along the timeframe between year 2015 and 2036.

The new Thailand’s Load Forecast was formulated in line with the potential and target of the AEDP and the EEDP, economic growth, changes in economic structure, infrastructure development projects, the performance of the EEDP measures, and VSPP power purchase plan. The Thailand’s new Load Forecast was proposed to Thailand Load Forecast and Power Development Subcommittee and approved on January 9, 2015.

The power demand forecast was formulated as the business as usual case (BAU) according to the average forecasted GDP growth during year 2014-2036 (Base case) published by the NESDB on September 2, 2014 of 3.94 percent - the previous plan of 4.49 percent. In addition, population growth, urbanization, and growth rate of electricity customers by economic sectors were also considered. Consequently, End-Use model and Econometrics model developed by Thammasat University were used for the formulation on the power demand forecast development with the assumptions as follows:

Assumptions of the Power Demand  Forecast

1)       The power demand forecast models for long-term energy efficiency developed by Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University (February 2014) were used to estimate the power demand of the Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) distribution system and the Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA) distribution system. Assumptions required for the models are growth rates of Residential, Business, Industrial, and Other Customer in the distribution system which changes according to economic and population growth.

2)       The actual data from January to October 2014 and the estimated data from November to December of 2014 were used to estimate the power demand of year 2014.

3)       The estimated GDP growth during year 2014-2036 was published by NESDB on September 2, 2014 in which the outcomes from the infrastructure development projects excluding high speed train projects were included in the estimation. The estimated GDP growth during year 2014-2036 expected to grow on the average of 3.94 percent annually was used in the power demand forecast models. The details of the estimated GDP growth during year 2014-2036 are shown in the following table:

Table 4.1 the estimated long-term GDP growth by NESDB (September 2, 2014)

4)       The maximum power demand of each electricity customer was estimated from load profiles of year 2013.

5)       The power demand from BTS sky train, MRT train, and 10 mass rapid transit projects in Bangkok was counted in the model except those of the unclear high speed train projects.

6)       The target of the EEDP is to reduce the energy intensity of year 2036 by 30 percent from that of year 2010. Thus, the measures of the EEDP on electricity focus mainly on industrial, building, residential, and government sector as shown in the table below:

Table 4.2 the energy conservation targets of the EEDP on electricity in year 2036 classified by economic sectors  (GWh)

7)       The target of the AEDP is to increase a portion of renewable and alternative energy uses to 30 percent of the total final energy consumption. Thus, the measures of the AEDP on electricity generation are shown as follows:

7.1)             Power generation from municipal waste, biomass, and biogas will be promoted according to the potential in order to create benefits for society and agricultural sectors as the following:

-                  Municipal waste power plants installed capacity of 500 MW

-                  Biomass power plants

• Installed capacity of 2,500 MW from current potential
• Installed capacity of 1,500 MW from agricultural zoning policy (Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives)

7.2)              Renewable energy targets were defined region by region according to the power demand and renewable energy potential of the region.

7.3)              Solar and wind energy will be promoted as soon as they become competitive to LNG.

7.4)         Competitive Bidding measures would be adopted to promote the AEDP.

The AEDP would be integrated with the power demand forecasting in order to formulate the PDP2015. However, many limitations should be considered, for instance, the renewable energy potential and power demand of each region. Transmission and distribution system have not been planned for the large amount of power generated from Very Small Power Producers (VSPPs); therefore, there would be a possibility of reverse power flow problems which would increase losses in the power system.

The AEDP developed by Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE) was approved by the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) on December 15, 2014 with the target on power generated from renewable energy in year 2036 of 19,634.4 MW as show in Table 4.3.

Table 4.3 the renewable and alternative energy targets of AEDP in 2036 (MW)

Remark: 1/ installed capacity

The information required on the estimation of power demand is as follows: power consumption, distribution power requirement, EGAT sales, power requirement of EGAT system, and power requirement of the country. However, data collection of power plants linked outside EGAT system such as renewable power generation from VSPPs and DEDE as well as diesel generation from PEA has been facing challenges due to their large numbers of sites. Therefore, the installed capacity of VSPPs which would be used in the calculation on energy requirement of EGAT system and the country was estimated from the AEDP as shown in Table 4.4.

Table 4.4 the accumulated installed capacity of renewable energy (VSPPs/DEDE/PEA)    (MW)

following:

The long-term power demand forecast was developed into 2 cases as    the

1)   BAU (Business as Usual) Case: the statistical data of year 2013 was used in the

model where the energy conservation measures were already implemented. Therefore, in 2036, the estimated energy saving would be 27,282 GWh, as a result, the maximum power demand would reach 59,300 MW or grow on the average of 3.5 percent.

2)                                   Base Case: the measures of energy conservation from the EEDP were integrated in the model. Therefore, in year 2036, the energy intensity would be reduced from that of year 2010 by 24 percent accounting for 89,672 GWh of the energy saving. The maximum power demand would reach 49,655 MW or grows on the average of 2.7 percent with the power demand saving of 9,543 MW as shown in Table 4.5 to 4.9.

Table 4.5 comparison of power demand forecast between BAU case and Base case

Table 4.6 TOTAL GENERATION   REQUIREMENT

(PDP2015:Base case)

Actual : NET Generation

Forecast : NET Generation

Intensity

kWh 1000 bahts

33.34

32.88

33.17

33.11

32.98

32.75

32.46

32.35

32.09

31.67

31.29

30.88

30.48

30.04

29.67

29.16

28.74

28.26

27.82

27.41

26.90

26.36

25.84

25.35

24.88

Remark Purchasing power from VSPP is included.    9  Jan  15

32.05

33.09

32.24

30.44

28.24

25.83

29.04

Table 4.7 EGAT GENERATION REQUIREMENT

9 Jan 2015 : Base Case

Actual : NET Generation

Forecast : NET Generation

9 Jan 15

Table 4.8 Power Demand Forecast

(PDP2015 : Base case)

Remark         1/ Maximum Power Demand (Non-coincident)         9 January 2015

4-8

TABLE 4.9

COMPARISON OF TOTAL GENERATION REQUIREMENT

9 January 2015

4-9

1. Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015)

5.1              Current Status

As of December 2014, the total contract capacity was 37,612 MW comprising 34,668 MW from firmed power plants - EGAT, IPPs and firmed-SPPs, 915 MW from non-firmed SPPs, and 2,029 MW from VSPPs. The details of the contract capacity of Thailand power system are shown as following:

Picture 5.1 Thailand’s generating capacity as of December 2014

5.2              Development of Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015)

According to the 1/2014 resolution of the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) on August 15, 2014, the timeframe of the Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015), the Energy Efficiency Development Plan (EEDP) and the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) would be harmonized to the timeframe of the National Economic and Social Development Plan (NESDP). The NEPC approved the themes of the PDP2015 as the following:

1. Energy Security: coping with an increase in power demand for economic growth taking into account fuel diversification to lessen dependence of one particular fuel
2. Economy: maintaining an appropriate cost of power generation, implementing energy efficiency for the country’s long-term economic competitiveness
3. Ecology: reducing environmental and social impacts by lessening carbon dioxide intensity of power generation

5.3              Frameworks and Directions of Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036  (PDP2015)

1. The power demand forecast was estimated according to the Base Case GDP growth during year 2014-2036 on the average of 3.94 percent published on September 2, 2014 from the NESDB (GDP growth of the previous plan was on the average of 4.49 percent).
2. Energy savings from the EEDP (30 percent reduction of energy intensity of year 2036 compared to that of year 2010 or 89,672 GWh for power sector) would be integrated to the PDP2015.
3. The AEDP target which is to increase the portion of renewable generation from 8 percent at present to 20 percent of the country’s electricity requirement in year 2036 of 19,634.4 MW would be integrated to the PDP2015.
4. Frameworks for new generating capacity allocation and fuel diversification of the PDP2015 are as follows:

4.1        Ensuring power system reliability of subsystem areas in terms of generation, transmission and distribution

4.2        Focusing on fuel diversification in order to lessen dependence of one particular fuel, and maintaining an appropriate cost of power generation for the country’s long-term economic competitiveness by the following measures:

-                 Reducing natural gas power  generation

-                 Increasing coal power generation via clean coal technology due to its relatively low fuel cost, and high reserves of coal

-                 Purchasing power from neighboring countries not larger than 20 percent of the total capacity by considering development potential and prices

-                 Encouraging renewable power generation with consideration to transmission system capability

-                 Maintaining nuclear power plants at the end of plan due to its cleanliness and relatively low fuel cost. Encouraging the study on nuclear technology and safety. And, building public awareness on nuclear power plant

4.3        Maintaining the level of reserve margin from the previous plan (the PDP2010 revision 3) not less than 15 percent of the peak power demand

4.4        Committed IPPs and SPPs would be maintained according to PPAs. And, for SPPs with anticipated expiration of PPA term locating in the high electricity and stream demand industrial zones would be encouraged to continue the operation.

According to the 2/2014 resolution of the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) on December 15, 2014, frameworks and directions for the development of the PDP2015 were approved as follows: In year 2036, the estimated fuel requirement of the PDP2015 would be hydro power purchases from neighboring countries of 15-20 percent, clean coal of 20-25 percent, renewable energy of 15-20 percent, natural gas of 30-40 percent, and nuclear of not more than 5 percent as shown in Table 5.1.

Table 5.1 the estimated fuel requirement for the PDP2015

5.4              Power System Reliability

One of the main objectives of the PDP2015 is to ensure power system reliability of subsystem areas in terms of generation, transmission, and distribution. Therefore, 2 areas which have high possibilities of power shortages were considered as follows:

5.4.1                Ensuring power system reliability in Southern of Thailand

Power demand in southern of Thailand would grow on the average of 3 percent; therefore, 3 power plants would be added during 2019-2024 as the following:

-                   Krabi Coal-fired Power  Plant

Krabi coal-fired power plant is the 800 MW coal-fired power plant listed in the PDP2010 revision 3. At present, the project has passed public hearing process – public scoping, public screening, and public review (EIA and EHIA have been carried out for the coal unloading terminal unit and the power plant unit respectively). The project is planned to be online in December, 2019.

-                   Thepa Coal-fired Power Plant

Clean coal technology is one of the alternatives to reduce natural gas power generation which was accounting for 64 percent of the total power generation. Moreover, clean coal technology could reduce the country’s cost of power generation. Therefore, feasibility study of the Thepa coal-fired power plant 2x1000 MW project was carried out and the project was listed in the PDP2015. At present, the project has passed public hearing process – public scoping and public screening. And, the public hearing of the project will be held on July 27, 2015. Consequently, the Thepa coal-fired power plant unit 1 and unit 2 is planned to be online in year 2021 and year 2024 respectively.

5.4.2                Ensuring power system reliability in Metropolitan area and central of Thailand

Electricity consumption of metropolitan area - the country’s largest economy area - held the largest portion accounting for 30 percent of the total electricity consumption. However, relying on power from other areas and lacking of generating capacity, the area has been confronted with the challenge of the continuously growing power demand. Therefore, more new power plants are needed to be added during year 2019-2025 to maintain power system reliability in the area as the followings:

-                   South Bangkok area

To ensure power system reliability in metropolitan, western, and eastern area, a 1,300 MW combined cycle power plant using natural gas as a primary fuel and diesel as a secondary fuel was listed in the plan to replace the South Bangkok thermal power plant unit 1-5, and the project is planned to be online on April, 2019. Moreover, another 1,300 MW combined cycle power plant was also listed in the plan to replace the South Bangkok combined cycle power plant unit 1-2 - EHIA of the project was already done and the project is planned to be online on January, 2022.

-                   Bang Pakong area

To ensure power system reliability in metropolitan and eastern area, a 1,300 MW combined cycle power plant using natural gas as a primary fuel and diesel as a secondary fuel was listed in the plan to replace a Bang Pakong thermal power plant unit 1-2

-                           EHIA of the project was already done, and the project is planned to be online on April, 2019.

-                   Wang Noi area

To ensure power system reliability of upper metropolitan area, a 1,300 MW combined cycle power plant using natural gas as a primary fuel and diesel as a secondary fuel was listed in the plan to replace the Wang Noi combined cycle power plant unit 1-2, and the project is planned to be online in year 2023. Moreover, another 1,300 MW combined cycle power plant was also listed in the plan to replace the Wang Noi combined cycle power plant unit 3 and the project is planned to be online in year 2025.

5.5              Roles of Private Sector in Power  Generation

In the PDP2015, Power purchases from committed and contracted generating capacity of IPPs, SPPs, VSPPs, and neighboring countries during year 2015-2025 are as the followings:

Independent Power Producer (IPP)

There are 7 IPPs signed PPAs with EGAT. The projects are planned to be online during year 2015-2024 with the total capacity of 8,070 MW. The details of the projects are shown in the table below:

Table 5.2 IPPs during year 2015-2024

Small Power Producer (SPP)

There are 97 SPPs with the total capacity of 5,922 MW which already have PPAs with EGAT to be online during year 2015-2025. The details are as follows: 1) 41 projects of cogeneration power plant with the total capacity of 3,660 MW, 2) 25 Extension projects of cogeneration power plant with the total capacity of 424 MW, 3) 31 projects of renewable energy generation with the total capacity of 1,838 MW.

Very Small Power Producer (VSPP)

The total capacity of VSPP power purchase to be online during year 2015-2036 according to the AEDP would be 9,735.6 MW. The details are as follows: 1) renewable power plant with the capacity of 9,701 MW, 2) Cogeneration power plants with the capacity of 34.6 MW.

Neighboring country power purchases

There are 4 projects of neighboring country power purchases with the total capacity of 3,316 MW which already have PPAs with EGAT to be online during year 2015- 2019. The details are shown in Table 5.3.

Table 5.3 neighboring country power purchases during year 2015-2019

5.6              Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015)

According to the aforementioned frameworks, the Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015) can be summarized as follows: the total capacity at the end plan (year 2036) would be 70,335 MW comprising the existing capacity (as of year 2014) of 37,612 MW, the new capacity added during year 2015-2036 of 57,459 MW, and the capacity of 24,736 MW which would be retired during year 2015-2036.

Generating capacity during year   2015-2036

follows:

New generating capacity during year   2015-2036

57,459 MW of new generating capacity during year 2015-2036 can be described as

Renewable power plant       21,648       MW

New generating capacity during year   2015-2026

Power plant projects during the first 10 years according to the PDP2015 would be the committed power plants which were planned to improve power system reliability of the sensitive areas. The total capacity of the projects during 2015-2026 would be 36,804 MW as follows:

New generating capacity during year   2027-2036

Power plant projects during the last 10 years according to the PDP2015 would be domestic power plants and neighboring country power purchases. The projects were planned to cope with an increase in power demand and to replace the capacities which would be retired during year 2027-2036. The total capacity of the projects during year 2027- 2036 would be 20,655 MW as follows:

Details of projects in the PDP2015 are shown in Table 5.4.

Table 5.4

Thailand Power Development Plan (2015-2036)

Table 5.4 (Continued)

Thailand Power Development Plan (2015-2036)

Table 5.4 (Continued)

Thailand Power Development Plan (2015-2036)